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A Case for Europe: The Relationship between Sovereign CDs and Stock Indexes 欧洲案例:主权CDs与股指之间的关系
Pub Date : 2012-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1889121
M. Coronado, M. T. Corzo, L. Lazcano
In 2010 we witnessed a major European sovereign debt crisis. By examining the links between sovereign Credit Default Swaps and stock indexes for eight European countries during the period 2007-2010, this paper studies the lead-lag relationships of the two markets which represent a country's credit and market risk. Through the use of a Vector Autoregressive model and a panel data model we find that the stock market plays a leading role during the sample period, but when 2010 is isolated a change in this relationship appears: a key role of sovereign CDS markets – the incorporation of new information emerges. This phenomenon is most significant in countries with high risk spread.
2010年,我们目睹了一场重大的欧洲主权债务危机。本文通过考察2007-2010年8个欧洲国家主权信用违约互换与股票指数之间的联系,研究了代表一国信用和市场风险的两个市场的超前-滞后关系。通过使用向量自回归模型和面板数据模型,我们发现股票市场在样本期间起主导作用,但当2010年被隔离时,这种关系出现了变化:主权CDS市场的关键作用-纳入新的信息出现了。这种现象在高风险蔓延的国家最为显著。
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引用次数: 44
Characteristics of Japan’s Commodities Index and its Correlation with Stock Index 日本商品指数的特征及其与股票指数的相关性
Pub Date : 2009-09-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1469517
Nobuyoshi Yamori
The commodity indexes associated with Japan’s commodity-futures markets were formed in 2008 and publicized by the Tokyo Commodity Exchange and the Tokyo Grain Exchange. In this paper, I used these indexes to analyze the properties of Japan’s commodity futures as portfolio investments, and could confirm that they possess investment characteristics that differ from stocks, and that commodity investors can enjoy favorable “diversified investment” effects if leveraged skillfully.
与日本商品期货市场相关的商品指数形成于2008年,由东京商品交易所(Tokyo commodity Exchange)和东京谷物交易所(Tokyo Grain Exchange)公布。在本文中,我利用这些指标分析了日本商品期货作为组合投资的属性,可以确认其具有不同于股票的投资特征,商品投资者如果运用得当,可以享受到良好的“多元化投资”效果。
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引用次数: 3
CAPM and Capital Budgeting: Present versus Future, Equilibrium versus Disequilibrium, Decision versus Valuation 资本资产定价模型与资本预算:现在与未来,均衡与非均衡,决策与估值
Pub Date : 2009-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1024716
C. Magni
This paper deals with the use of the CAPM for investment decisions and evaluations. Four different measures are deductively drawn from this model: the disequilibrium Net Present Value, the equilibrium Net Present Value, the disequilibrium Net Future Value, the equilibrium Net Future Value. It is shown that all of them may be used for accept-reject decisions, but only the equilibrium Net Present Value and the disequilibrium Net Future Value may be used for valuation, given that they enjoy the additivity property. The two nonadditive indexes cannot be deducted from the CAPM assumptions if the decision problem “invest/no invest” is reframed as “invest in Z/invest in Y”. Despite their additivity, the equilibrium Net Present Value and the disequilibrium Net Future Value are unreliable for both valuation and decision, because they do not signal arbitrage opportunities whenever there is some state of nature for which they are decreasing functions with respect to the end-of-period cash flow. In this case, the equilibrium value of a project is not the price it would have if it were traded in the security market. This result is the capital-budgeting counterpart of Dybvig and Ingersoll’s (1982) result.
本文讨论了CAPM在投资决策和评估中的应用。从该模型中推导出四种不同的度量:非均衡净现值、均衡净现值、非均衡净未来价值、均衡净未来价值。结果表明,它们都可以用于接受-拒绝决策,但只有均衡净现值和非均衡净未来价值可以用于估值,因为它们具有可加性。如果将“投资/不投资”的决策问题重新定义为“投资Z/投资Y”,则无法从CAPM假设中扣除这两个不可加性指标。尽管它们具有可加性,但均衡净现值和非均衡净未来价值对于估值和决策来说都是不可靠的,因为每当存在某种自然状态时,它们就会相对于期末现金流减少函数,因此它们不会发出套利机会的信号。在这种情况下,一个项目的均衡价值并不是它在证券市场上交易时的价格。这个结果是Dybvig和Ingersoll(1982)的结果的资本预算对应。
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引用次数: 5
Building Balanced Scorecard in a Complex Form of Enterprise with Various Effective Managerial Tools and Performance Strategies: The Case of Gas Corporation S.A., in Greece 运用多种有效的管理工具和绩效策略构建复杂企业形式的平衡计分卡——以希腊天然气公司为例
Pub Date : 2009-03-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1359873
Alexandros Garefalakis, N. Sariannidis, C. Zopounidis, Pandelis Zisis
The present paper makes a significant effort to introduce and eventually build the appropriate Balanced Scorecard (BSC) for the specific Gas Company of Greece. As the latter is a complex organisation several management tools are considered important for the most accurate development of BSC as a strategic planning tool. An overview of the performance measures and specifically the gap between traditional and innovative performance measures is provided, so as the necessity for using progressive tools to be highlighted. Moreover, the gap between the obsolete Greek means of measuring performance and suggested ones by literature is underlined, so as to provide insight to Greek companies in improving their performance measurement system as well as keep it consistent with their strategic objectives. Finally, it was considered vital that two BSCs for both public and private sectors to be build in order to obtain the most appropriate total BSC for the specific complex organisation. It was also considered important to use particular management tools for the most accurate results and proper suggestions for improving strategic objectives of the company. As a result, the aim of this paper by developing BSC was to provide more comprehensive and efficient procedures through which managers can develop strategies and goals for progressive and competitive future businesses. As far as the specific company.
本文为引入并最终建立适合希腊燃气公司的平衡计分卡(BSC)做出了重要的努力。由于后者是一个复杂的组织,一些管理工具被认为是重要的平衡计分卡作为战略规划工具的最准确的发展。本文概述了绩效衡量标准,特别是传统绩效衡量标准与创新绩效衡量标准之间的差距,从而强调了使用进步工具的必要性。此外,本文还强调了希腊过时的绩效衡量手段与文献中建议的绩效衡量手段之间的差距,从而为希腊企业改进绩效衡量体系并使其与战略目标保持一致提供见解。最后,为公共和私营部门建立两个平衡计分卡被认为是至关重要的,以便为特定的复杂组织获得最合适的总平衡计分卡。还认为重要的是使用特定的管理工具,以获得最准确的结果和适当的建议,以改善公司的战略目标。因此,本文通过发展平衡计分卡的目的是提供更全面和有效的程序,通过这些程序,管理者可以为未来的进步和竞争企业制定战略和目标。至于具体的公司。
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引用次数: 4
The Banking Firm: The Role of Signaling with Collaterals 银行公司:抵押品信号的作用
Pub Date : 2008-03-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1135680
V. Bieta, Udo Broll, Wilfried Siebe
In this paper we challenge basic results of signaling models. In our banking model each project of a borrower is described by a continuous density of outcomes. Different density functions are classified according to second stochastisch dominance. Combining these features we find that in a banking model collateral is no longer in a position to signal the degree of riskiness of the borrower to the lender. In most cases the equilibrium is a pooling equilibrium.
在本文中,我们挑战信号模型的基本结果。在我们的银行模型中,借款人的每个项目都用连续的结果密度来描述。根据二次随机优势度对不同的密度函数进行分类。结合这些特征,我们发现,在银行模型中,抵押品不再能够向贷款人表明借款人的风险程度。在大多数情况下,平衡是池化平衡。
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引用次数: 11
Prediction of Acquisitions and Portfolio Returns 收购和投资组合回报预测
Pub Date : 2008-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1137966
Georgios Ouzounis, Chrysovalantis Gaganis, C. Zopounidis
Over recent decades, the forecasting and prediction of stock market acquisitions have been subject to increased interest due to the economic importance for various stakeholders. This study consists of two stages: dealing with the development of prediction models and their subsequent use within an investment strategy. During the first stage, we explore the ability to predict the acquisition of listed firms in the UK. In the second stage of the analysis, we explore whether it is possible to earn abnormal returns by investing in portfolios consisted of the predicted targets. The training sample includes 658 listed companies half of which were acquired between 2001 and 2005. The validation sample consists of 1,576 listed firms, of which 416 were acquired during 2006. The results indicate that the portfolios can generate abnormal returns of up to 4.78% depending on the investment horizon and the methodology employed.
近几十年来,由于各种利益相关者的经济重要性,股票市场收购的预测和预测受到越来越多的关注。本研究包括两个阶段:处理预测模型的发展及其在投资策略中的后续使用。在第一阶段,我们探索预测英国上市公司收购的能力。在分析的第二阶段,我们探讨是否有可能通过投资于由预测目标组成的投资组合来获得异常回报。培训样本包括658家上市公司,其中一半在2001年至2005年期间被收购。验证样本包括1,576家上市公司,其中416家在2006年被收购。结果表明,投资期限和投资方法的不同,投资组合产生的异常收益最高可达4.78%。
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引用次数: 19
A Sum & Discount Method of Appraising Firms: An Illustrative Example 企业评价的总和贴现法:一个说明性例子
Pub Date : 2007-11-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1033522
C. Magni
This paper presents a new way of valuing firms and measuring residual income. The method, originally introduced in Magni (2000a, 2000b, 2000c, 2001), is here renamed lost-capitalparadigm. In order to enhance comprehension the presentation relies on a very simple numerical example which shows that the new paradigm of residual income enjoys a property of abnormal earnings aggregation, according to which the NPV (and therefore the market value) of the firm does not change if each residual income changes, as long as the (uncapitalized) sum of all residual incomes do not change. While radically different from the standard residual income, the difference between the two notions is equal to the interest accrued on the past cumulated standard residual incomes, which has interesting implications for incentive compensation.
本文提出了一种新的企业价值评估和剩余收益计量方法。该方法最初是在Magni (2000a, 2000b, 2000c, 2001)中引入的,在这里被重新命名为lost-capitalparadigm。为了增强理解,本演示依赖于一个非常简单的数值示例,该示例表明剩余收入的新范式具有异常收益聚合的属性,根据该示例,只要所有剩余收入的(未资本化)总和不变,如果每个剩余收入都发生变化,公司的NPV(因此市场价值)就不会变化。虽然这两个概念与标准剩余收入截然不同,但两者之间的差异等于过去累积的标准剩余收入所产生的利息,这对激励补偿具有有趣的含义。
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引用次数: 1
The Nontradability Premium of Derivatives Contracts 衍生品合约的不可交易溢价
Pub Date : 2006-07-01 DOI: 10.1086/503657
Rafael Eldor, Shmuel Hauser, Michael Kahn, Avi Kamara
We investigate nontradable and tradable identical Treasury derivatives. The nontradability premium is statistically and economically significant, and it covaries positively with interest rate volatility and relative tightness in the markets. Our data offer an almost-perfect laboratory to study the determinants of liquidity. The product of conditional interest rate volatility times the underlying bill's turnover is a better liquidity measure than the trading volume, amount outstanding, and turnover. A higher turnover is associated with a lower expected time for trading at a "desirable" price. The higher the volatility, the larger the marginal value of a reduction in the expected time to trade.
我们研究了不可交易和可交易的相同国债衍生品。不可交易溢价具有显著的统计学意义和经济意义,且与利率波动率和市场相对松紧度呈正相关。我们的数据为研究流动性的决定因素提供了一个近乎完美的实验室。有条件利率波动率与相关票据成交量的乘积比交易量、未偿金额和成交量更好。较高的成交量与较低的预期时间有关,以“理想”价格进行交易。波动性越高,预期交易时间减少的边际值就越大。
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引用次数: 5
Making Density Forecasting Models Statistically Consistent 使密度预测模型在统计上一致
Pub Date : 2006-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.877629
Michael Carney, P. Cunningham, B. Lucey
We propose a new approach to density forecast optimisation and apply it to Value-at-Risk estimation. All existing density forecasting models try to optimise the distribution of the returns based solely on the predicted density at the observation. In this paper we argue that probabilistic predictions should be optimised on more than just this accuracy score and suggest that the statistical consistency of the probability estimates should also be optimised during training. Statistical consistency refers to the property that if a predicted density function suggests P percent probability of occurrence, the event truly ought to have probability P of occurring. We describe a quality score that can rank probability density forecasts in terms of statistical consistency based on the probability integral transform (Diebold et al., 1998b). We then describe a framework that can optimise any density forecasting model in terms of any set of objective functions. The framework uses a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm to determine a set of trade-off solutions known as the Pareto front of optimal solutions. Using this framework we develop an algorithm for optimising density forecasting models and implement this algorithm for GARCH (Bollerslev, 1986) and GJR models (Glosten et al., 1993). We call these new models Pareto-GARCH and Pareto-GJR. To determine whether this approach of multi-objective optimisation of density forecasting models produces better results over the standard GARCH and GJR optimisation techniques we compare the models produced empirically on a Value-at-Risk application. Our evaluation shows that our Pareto models produce superior results out-of-sample.
我们提出了一种新的密度预测优化方法,并将其应用于风险价值估计。所有现有的密度预测模型都试图仅根据观测点的预测密度来优化收益的分布。在本文中,我们认为概率预测应该优化的不仅仅是这个准确性分数,并建议概率估计的统计一致性也应该在训练期间优化。统计一致性指的是这样一种性质:如果一个预测的密度函数表明发生的概率为P %,那么该事件确实应该具有发生的概率P。我们描述了一个质量分数,它可以根据概率积分变换的统计一致性对概率密度预测进行排序(Diebold et al., 1998b)。然后,我们描述了一个框架,该框架可以根据任何一组目标函数优化任何密度预测模型。该框架使用多目标进化算法来确定一组权衡解,称为最优解的帕累托前沿。利用这一框架,我们开发了一种优化密度预测模型的算法,并将该算法应用于GARCH (Bollerslev, 1986)和GJR模型(Glosten et al., 1993)。我们称这些新模型为帕累托- garch和帕累托- gjr。为了确定这种密度预测模型的多目标优化方法是否比标准GARCH和GJR优化技术产生更好的结果,我们比较了在风险价值应用上产生的模型。我们的评估表明,我们的帕累托模型产生了更好的样本外结果。
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引用次数: 9
Theoretical Flaws in the Use of the CAPM For Investment Decisions 在投资决策中使用CAPM的理论缺陷
Pub Date : 2005-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1075404
C. Magni
This paper uses counterexamples and simple formalization to show that the standard CAPM-based Net Present Value may not be used for investment valuations. The reason is that the standard CAPM-based capital budgeting criterion implies a notion of value which does not comply with the principle of additivity. Framing effects arise in decisions so that different descriptions of the same problem lead to different choices. As a result, the CAPM-based NPV as a tool for valuing projects and making investment decisions is theoretically unsound, even if the CAPM assumptions are met.
本文使用反例和简单的形式化来表明,标准的基于capm的净现值可能不能用于投资估值。其原因是标准的基于capm的资本预算准则隐含了一个不符合可加性原则的价值概念。框架效应在决策中产生,因此对同一问题的不同描述会导致不同的选择。因此,即使满足CAPM假设,基于CAPM的NPV作为评估项目和做出投资决策的工具在理论上也是不可靠的。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
Frontiers in Finance & Economics
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