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Alternatives to Transport Support in Exploration of Russia’s Arctic Shelf 俄罗斯北极大陆架勘探中运输支持的替代方案
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.15372/reg20150101
Ye.B. Kibalov, A. B. Khutoretskiy
Using the problems of transport support of resource extraction in Russia’s Arctic shelf as an example, there is explained and implemented an approach to selecting an appropriate strategy to solve a semistructured problem under the uncertainty of the scenario. To structure the problem, a tree of objectives is drawn, scenarios and strategies are described. Scenarios indicate possible states of the environment where the problem is solved. Strategies differ in ways of transportation: mainly by sea (the Northern Sea Route) or Siberian rivers. It is shown that the construction of the Transpolar mainline is necessary for all the strategies. The authors have developed and implemented in software a method for collecting and processing expert data used to estimate numerically the importance of objectives. Following the same method, one evaluates the degrees of how the general objective of each strategy is achieved under each scenario included in the evaluation matrix. The appropriate strategy is selected according to the evaluation matrix with the help of strategic criteria (Laplace, Wald, Hurwitz and Savage)
以俄罗斯北极大陆架资源开采的运输支持问题为例,解释并实施了在不确定性情景下选择适当策略来解决半结构化问题的方法。为了构建问题,绘制了一个目标树,描述了场景和策略。场景表示问题被解决的环境的可能状态。运输策略不同:主要通过海路(北海航线)或西伯利亚河流。结果表明,跨极地干线的建设是所有战略的必要条件。作者开发并在软件中实现了一种收集和处理专家数据的方法,用于对目标的重要性进行数值估计。按照同样的方法,评估每个策略的总体目标在评估矩阵中包含的每个场景下实现的程度。在战略准则(Laplace, Wald, Hurwitz and Savage)的帮助下,根据评价矩阵选择合适的战略。
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引用次数: 1
Anti-Russian Sanctions and Threats for the Subjects of the Russian Federation 对俄罗斯联邦主体的反俄制裁和威胁
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.15372/reg20150102
S. Kazantsev
In March 2014, the US and the EU announced trade and financial sanctions against Russia and a travel ban on some individuals. Although none of the competent international bodies approved or endorsed these sanctions, several other countries—mostly NATO members and allies of the USA—joined them later. Sanctions are imposed by a state or a group of states, so they must also be opposed by a state. Moreover, the state applying sanctions is usually stronger than the one withstanding them. Sanctions are a weapon. Therefore, it is necessary not only to defend oneself from them, but also to deprive those who impose them the ability and desire to fight. For this purpose, it is required at least to protect one’s weak points (it is even better not to have them) and increase the power. Basing on the 2011–2012 official statistics and using his own technique, the author has calculated the levels of economic protectability from sanctions for each of 82 subjects of the Russian Federation. Depending on these levels, the regions have been assigned to one of four groups of protectability: good, acceptable, questionable and weak. It turned out that judging by the selected set of indicators, a half of the subjects of the Russian Federation are of low sensitivity to sanctions: their level of protectability is either good or acceptable. The author suggests measures to improve the protectability of Russian regions from the sanctions imposed on the country
2014年3月,美国和欧盟宣布对俄罗斯实施贸易和金融制裁,并对一些个人实施旅行禁令。尽管没有一个主管的国际机构批准或支持这些制裁,但其他几个国家——主要是北约成员国和美国的盟友——后来加入了制裁行列。制裁是由一个国家或一组国家实施的,因此它们也必须受到一个国家的反对。此外,实施制裁的国家通常比承受制裁的国家更强大。制裁是一种武器。因此,不仅要防御他们,而且要剥夺那些强加他们的能力和欲望。为了达到这个目的,至少需要保护自己的弱点(没有弱点更好),增加力量。根据2011-2012年的官方统计数据,作者利用自己的技术计算了俄罗斯联邦82个主体的经济保护水平。根据这些级别,这些地区被划分为四组可保护性中的一组:良好、可接受、有问题和弱。结果,从选定的一套指标来看,俄罗斯联邦一半的主体对制裁的敏感性较低:它们的可保护程度要么是好的,要么是可以接受的。作者提出了提高俄罗斯地区免受制裁保护的措施
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引用次数: 0
Ethnocultural Diversity: Analysis of Its Features in Russian Regions 俄罗斯地区民族文化多样性特征分析
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.15372/reg20150906
L. Limonov, M. Nesena
The ethnocultural composition of modern Russian society is as follows: about 80% of the population are Russians; the remaining 20% are representatives of more than 180 of other nationalities. Russia has seen processes of ethnic assimilation throughout its history; nonetheless, numerous ethnic groups still maintain their cultural identity. The ethnocultural diversity varies significantly by the Russian regions. The aim of this study is to test a hypothesis that postulates the existence of a link between the ethnic diversity and public goods provision at the regional level, as well as to examine the relationship between ethnic diversity and some important social and economic indicators that describe economic development and social inequality using econometric research methods. The article satisfies the questions whether ethnic diversity is a factor contributing to the provision of public goods at the regional level in Russia and if the budgetary framework is affected by other population and territorial characteristics. The subject of the study is the ethnic composition of Russian regions, indicators of social and economic development, and indicators of regional budgets. One of the main findings of this study is that the more heterogeneous population a region has, the less share of its budget it spends on education. The results will allow regional social and economic policies to be tailored to the ethnic and cultural diversity of the population.
现代俄罗斯社会的民族文化构成是这样的:大约80%的人口是俄罗斯人;剩下的20%是其他180多个民族的代表。俄罗斯在其历史上经历了民族同化的过程;尽管如此,许多民族仍然保持着他们的文化认同。俄罗斯各地区的民族文化多样性差异很大。本研究的目的是检验一个假设民族多样性和公共产品提供之间存在联系的假设,并使用计量经济学研究方法研究民族多样性与描述经济发展和社会不平等的一些重要社会经济指标之间的关系。这篇文章回答了种族多样性是否在俄罗斯地区层面上是促进公共产品提供的一个因素,以及预算框架是否受到其他人口和领土特征的影响。研究的主题是俄罗斯各地区的民族构成、社会和经济发展指标以及地区预算指标。这项研究的一个主要发现是,一个地区的人口多样性越大,其教育预算所占的份额就越小。研究结果将使区域社会和经济政策能够适应人口的种族和文化多样性。
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引用次数: 0
How the Shadow Economy Impacts the Quality of Life in Regions 影子经济如何影响地区生活质量
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.15372/reg20150909
Kireyenko A.P., Ye.N. Nevzorova, Ye.N. Orlova, D. Fedotov
The article presents the findings of research on how the shadow economy and the quality of life ofpopulation are interrelated. We propose a hypothesis that we can evaluate the shadow economy at the regional level basing on the dynamics of the quality of life indicators. The impact that the shadow economy has on the quality of life is proved by a regression analysis of its indicators and Human Development Index values for countries worldwide. To study the shadow economy at the regional level, we have identified the quality of life indicators that reflect regional differences and are affected by the shadow economy. Having compared the dynamics of the standard of living and quality of life indicators in the Siberian Federal District for the period between 2001 and 2013, we managed to get an insight into the level of the shadow economy. In regions where growth in the standard of living corresponds to growth in the quality of life, the level of the shadow economy is below average; on the contrary, in regions where growth in the standard of living exceeds growth in the quality of life, the level of the shadow economy is above average.
本文介绍了影子经济与人口生活质量之间关系的研究结果。本文提出了一个基于生活质量指标动态的区域层面影子经济评价假设。通过对影子经济指标和世界各国人类发展指数值的回归分析,证明了影子经济对生活质量的影响。为了在区域层面上研究影子经济,我们确定了反映区域差异并受影子经济影响的生活质量指标。通过比较2001年至2013年期间西伯利亚联邦区生活水平和生活质量指标的动态变化,我们成功地了解了影子经济的水平。在生活水平提高与生活质量提高相对应的地区,影子经济的水平低于平均水平;相反,在生活水平增长超过生活质量增长的地区,影子经济的水平高于平均水平。
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引用次数: 0
Forest rent assessment for the Russian economy using timber sale auctions data 利用木材销售拍卖数据对俄罗斯经济进行森林租金评估
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.15372/reg20150108
A. Pyzhev
The paper is based on hypothesis the timber sales auctions provide the most reliable data for the assessment of forest rent. An approach of assessing of the forest rent in the Russian economy using the open data interface of governmental services is suggested. The weighted OLS method is used for the assessment of linear specification of forest rent model taking the volume of logging as weighting variable. Modeling of both Paretian and Ricardian forest rent is performed depending on the main rent-producing factors: type of forest stand, trunk volume and removal distance. The suggested approach has been tested on the dataset of timber sale auctions conducted in different Russian regions in 2013. The results of performed estimation show that the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation currently lacks of three quarters of the actual forest rent. The remaining part of forest rent is captured by the mediators of the timber market
假设木材销售拍卖为森林地租评估提供了最可靠的数据。提出了一种利用政府服务的开放数据接口来评估俄罗斯经济中森林租金的方法。以采伐量为权重变量,采用加权OLS法对森林租金模型的线性规格进行评价。根据主要产租因子:林分类型、树干体积和采伐距离,对帕累蒂和李嘉图森林地租进行建模。建议的方法已经在2013年俄罗斯不同地区进行的木材销售拍卖数据集上进行了测试。所作估计的结果显示,俄罗斯联邦的综合预算目前缺少实际森林租金的四分之三。森林租金的其余部分由木材市场的中介获得
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引用次数: 1
Unity in diversity of German federal structure: some theoretical aspects 德意志联邦结构的统一性与多样性:若干理论方面
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.15372/reg20150111
J. Wagner, E. Markwart
The paper analyzes constitutional and theoretical aspects needed to save and increase diversity and establish unity of a federal state. It examines the constitutional status of the federal states (Bundeslander), their competence and how their powers shall be compared with the ones of the Federation. It is demonstrated how a federal state can exist when, on the one hand, it takes into account regional peculiarities of each “component” of the federation and, on the other hand, forms a rather homogeneous matter which reflects equivalent (or at least comparable) living conditions. The article also shows possible consequences that constitutional entrenchment of the principle of federal structure could have for the regional development practices and how the unity (uniformity) guaranteed by the Constitution can and should be implemented in the framework of a federal state
本文分析了保存和增加多样性和建立联邦国家统一所需要的宪法和理论方面的问题。它审查联邦州(Bundeslander)的宪法地位,它们的权限以及它们的权力如何与联邦的权力进行比较。它展示了一个联邦国家是如何存在的,一方面,它考虑到联邦的每个“组成部分”的地区特点,另一方面,形成一个相当同质的物质,反映同等(或至少可比)的生活条件。这篇文章还显示了联邦结构原则在宪法上的巩固对区域发展实践可能产生的后果,以及宪法所保证的统一(统一性)如何能够和应该在联邦国家的框架内实施
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引用次数: 0
Problems in Hydropower Development of Lake Baikal: the Past and the Present 贝加尔湖水电开发中的问题:过去与现在
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.15372/reg20150912
V. Nikitin, T. V. Berezhnykh, N. Abasov
The article discusses the relationship of the hydropower industry with the socio-economic sphere and natural environment in the Baikal region under different hydrological conditions and water management in Russia. The lake has been used as a reservoir for the Irkutsk Hydroelectric Power Station (HPS) since a hydroelectric dam blocked the Angara River. When the Angara Hydroelectric Power Chain started work, the Irkutsk Reservoir became the main one, which has defined the importance of Lake Baikal for the Siberian Interconnected Power System and Angarsk multipurpose water-resources scheme. Depending on hydrological conditions during the operation of the Angara Hydroelectric Power Chain, we can distinguish several stages of lake-level fluctuations. In 1983-1995, the level of the Irkutsk Reservoir repeatedly exceeded the normal design level. In 2014, a catastrophic water shortage in the catchment basin of Lake Baikal exacerbated negative effect on the socio-economic sphere and natural environment on the eastern shore of the lake. When Baikal became a World Natural Heritage site, legislative amendments of 2001 limited the threshold levels of the lake within one-meter range. This restriction substantially affected hydroelectric regimes in terms of social and economic security in the downstream of the Irkutsk HPS within the boundaries of Irkutsk and on the shore of Lake Baikal under the new Russian economic conditions that result from market transformations and the renovation of the Water Code. The article examines the role that the Irkutsk HPS and Lake Baikal, as the primary part of the Irkutsk Reservoir, play in the development of the Baikal region. We also consider the problems related to the use of Lake Baikal under low-water and high-water conditions. The article determines hydrological hazards and threats to the security of the population and the economy in the downstream of the Irkutsk HPS and on the eastern shore of Lake Baikal in the case of high water inflows. We propose priority measures to overcome these threats and settle the interregional relations in the catchment basin of Lake Baikal. The measures include ensuring economic entities and lands within areas of periodic flooding and redistributing the hydroelectricity rent received by the owners of the Angara HPS between the regions. The aim is to manage the functioning and development of natural, technical, economic and social systems of the entire basin of Lake Baikal and the Angara River.
本文讨论了在俄罗斯不同水文条件和水管理下,贝加尔湖地区水电工业与社会经济领域和自然环境的关系。自水电站大坝阻塞安加拉河以来,该湖一直被用作伊尔库茨克水电站(HPS)的水库。当安加拉水电链开始工作时,伊尔库茨克水库成为主要水库,这确定了贝加尔湖对西伯利亚互联电力系统和安加尔斯克多用途水资源计划的重要性。根据安加拉水电链运行期间的水文条件,我们可以区分湖泊水位波动的几个阶段。1983-1995年,伊尔库茨克水库水位多次超过正常设计水位。2014年,贝加尔湖流域的灾难性缺水加剧了对湖东岸社会经济领域和自然环境的负面影响。当贝加尔湖成为世界自然遗产时,2001年的立法修正案将湖泊的阈值限制在一米范围内。这一限制在社会和经济安全方面严重影响了伊尔库茨克HPS下游伊尔库茨克边界内和贝加尔湖岸边的水力发电制度,这是由于市场变革和《水法》的更新而产生的新的俄罗斯经济条件。本文考察了作为伊尔库茨克水库主要组成部分的伊尔库茨克水库和贝加尔湖在贝加尔湖地区发展中的作用。我们还考虑了贝加尔湖在低水位和高水位条件下的相关问题。本文确定了在高水位流入的情况下,伊尔库茨克HPS下游和贝加尔湖东岸的水文危害和对人口和经济安全的威胁。我们提出了克服这些威胁和解决贝加尔湖流域区域间关系的优先措施。这些措施包括确保定期洪水地区内的经济实体和土地,并在各地区之间重新分配安加拉水电系统所有者收到的水电租金。其目的是管理整个贝加尔湖和安加拉河流域的自然、技术、经济和社会系统的功能和发展。
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引用次数: 0
Specificities of Social and Ethnic Processes in Kamchatka Krai 堪察加边疆区社会和民族进程的特殊性
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.15372/reg20150607
L. Garusova, N. V. Petrova
The article identifies the dynamics and main trends of modern social, ethnic and demographic processes in Kamchatka Krai. Crucial socio-demographic and ethnic problems of the region (depopulation, psychological experiences of native peoples, and their poor adaptation to the market economy) are defined as typical for the Arctic regions of the Russian Far East. The authors have specified the tasks of the preventive migration policy in the region. They have made recommendations on how to regulate the employment of the indigenous population of Kamchatka Krai and preserve their ethnic and cultural identity
本文确定了堪察加边疆区现代社会、民族和人口进程的动态和主要趋势。该地区的关键社会人口和民族问题(人口减少、土著人民的心理经历以及他们对市场经济的不良适应)被定义为俄罗斯远东北极地区的典型问题。作者详细说明了该地区预防性移徙政策的任务。他们就如何管理堪察加边疆区土著居民的就业和维护其种族和文化特性提出了建议
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引用次数: 0
Change in Reproductive Behavior in the Komi Republic: Factors and Consequences 科米共和国生殖行为的变化:因素与后果
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.15372/reg20150908
L. A. Popova, Shishkina, N. A. Butrim
The article analyzes the current fertility trends in the Komi Republic, changes in its structure concerning birth order, mother's age and marriageability. Basing on a cohort sociological study, we evaluate the impact of federal and regional demographic policy on the change in reproductive attitudes. The article states that recent public initiatives in this sphere have helped elongate positive fertility trend under a declining age structure, make up for births postponed by previous generations, increase the number of children per family, strengthen the role of the family infertility, as well as assisted in young families' early fertility. Federal and regional measures of demographic policy were the most beneficial for 1960's and 1970's generations who actualized them later in older age groups. Yet, regional measures of demographic policy aimed at encouraging having a third child appeared to be more universal. They did not only contribute to a further increase in fertility and faster rise in the proportion of higher-order births, but also improved reproductive planning, including among the youngest birth cohorts. We conclude that a gradual expansion of pro-family demographic measures can affect both the current fertility situation and its future prospects.
本文分析了科米共和国目前的生育率趋势,以及其有关出生顺序、母亲年龄和结婚能力的结构变化。基于一项队列社会学研究,我们评估了联邦和地区人口政策对生育态度变化的影响。文章指出,最近在这一领域的公共倡议有助于在年龄结构下降的情况下延长积极的生育趋势,弥补前几代人推迟生育的影响,增加每个家庭的子女数量,加强家庭不育的作用,并协助年轻家庭早期生育。联邦和区域的人口政策措施对1960年代和1970年代的人最有利,他们后来在较老的年龄组中实施了这些措施。然而,旨在鼓励生育第三个孩子的区域人口政策措施似乎更为普遍。它们不仅促进了生育率的进一步提高和高阶出生比例的更快上升,而且还改善了生育计划,包括最年轻的出生队列。我们的结论是,逐步扩大有利于家庭的人口统计措施可以影响目前的生育状况和未来的前景。
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引用次数: 0
Consequence Evaluation of the Local Government Reform 地方政府改革的效果评价
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.15372/reg20150612
A.S.Shumkov
Changes to the Budget Code of the Russian Federation that accompanied the Federal law dd. 27 May 2014, which states that a considerable part of rural settlements' powers is redistributed in favor of municipal areas, assigned some budget sources of revenue to municipal areas. Earlier, these sources were transferred into the budgets of rural settlements. Taking into account the changes in the federal legislation, the author contemplates if it makes sense to preserve the existing form of local self-government in rural areas. The article analyzes the factors preceding the latest stage of the reformation of rural local self-government and evaluates possible consequences for the economy of rural settlements. Studying the case of Moscow Oblast, we consider how spatial factors influence the possibility that rural settlements may exercise their vested powers. It is shown that changes in the federal legislation practically liquidate the two-level system of local self-government, leaving the most insignificant powers within the competence of rural self-government institutions. The article proves that the carried out reforms are generally dictated by an objective inability of the majority of rural settlements to render high-quality municipal services. Due to the economic and social situation of rural settlements, regional authorities will pursue selective policy of reauthorization either by assigning additional powers to the richest municipalities or by delegating more powers to regional and district levels
2014年5月27日第27号联邦法律规定,相当一部分农村居民点的权力被重新分配给了城市地区,对《俄罗斯联邦预算法》进行了修改,将一些预算收入来源分配给了城市地区。早些时候,这些资金被转入农村住区的预算。考虑到联邦立法的变化,作者思考在农村地区保留现有的地方自治形式是否有意义。本文分析了现阶段农村地方自治改革的影响因素,并对农村居民点经济可能产生的影响进行了评价。本文以莫斯科州为例,探讨了空间因素如何影响农村聚落行使其既得权力的可能性。研究表明,联邦立法的变化实际上消除了地方自治的两级制度,将最微不足道的权力留在了农村自治机构的职权范围内。本文证明,实施改革通常是由于大多数农村居民点客观上无法提供高质量的市政服务。由于农村住区的经济和社会情况,区域当局将采取选择性的重新授权政策,或将额外的权力分配给最富有的市镇,或将更多的权力下放给区域和地区一级
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Journal Region: Economics and Sociology
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