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Assessment of banks' resilience and financial stress in countercyclical martial law conditions 评估银行在反周期戒严条件下的应变能力和财务压力
IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1057/s41261-024-00256-9
Volodymyr Korneev, Oleksandr Dziubliuk, Andrii Tymkiv, Volodymyr Antkiv, Nataliia Kucherenko

The purpose of the article is to assess the fluctuations of financial stress and to study the resilience of the banking sector of Ukraine in the countercyclical events of the war. The study used methods such as analysis, correlation, and regression analysis. It examined the banking system's functioning and evaluated its operational stability during the martial law period. The primary focus was on the Financial Stress Index, measures of financial stability, adherence to economic standards, and profitability. The study also delved into understanding the influence of different factors on bank revenues. The findings revealed several key insights. Firstly, the level of financial stress exhibited fluctuations influenced by military events, attack activity and the National Bank of Ukraine's regular policies. Secondly, the study indicated that adherence to economic standards and the dynamics of financial stability indicators did not experience significant fluctuations, demonstrating the stable performance of the sector.

本文旨在评估金融压力的波动,研究乌克兰银行业在战争反周期事件中的恢复能力。研究采用了分析、相关和回归分析等方法。研究考察了银行系统的运作情况,并评估了其在戒严期间的运行稳定性。主要重点是金融压力指数、金融稳定性衡量标准、经济标准遵守情况和盈利能力。研究还深入了解了不同因素对银行收入的影响。研究结果揭示了几个重要的见解。首先,金融压力水平受军事事件、袭击活动和乌克兰国家银行常规政策的影响而波动。其次,研究表明,经济标准的遵守情况和金融稳定指标的动态并未出现大幅波动,这表明该行业的表现稳定。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of house prices on banking stability in Vietnam: the moderating role of investor sentiment 房价对越南银行业稳定性的影响:投资者情绪的调节作用
IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1057/s41261-024-00252-z
Nguyen Thi Nhung, Nguyen Thi Thanh Huyen, Vo Hoai Anh, Nguyen Phuong Thao, Trinh Thao Van

This article aims to examine the moderating role of investor sentiment in the impact of house prices on banking stability over the period from 2017 to 2022 in Vietnam. The research tries to build a banking stability index by combining the principal components of an international rating system of financial institutions stability (CAMELS) through principal component analysis, while the average apartment price index in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City is used as a variable of house prices in Vietnam, and investor sentiment is measured using the Google search volume index. By using panel corrected standard errors, the research gives evidence of the positive impact of house prices on banking stability in Vietnam, and the moderating role of investor sentiment on this positive effect. Moreover, the research indicates the positive roles of bank efficiency, regulatory quality, and GDP growth for boosting banking stability, while the opposite impact can be seen in the case of bank concentration. In addition, there is no evidence of any influence of bank size on banking stability in Vietnam.

本文旨在研究 2017 年至 2022 年期间,投资者情绪对越南房价对银行业稳定性影响的调节作用。研究试图通过主成分分析,结合金融机构稳定性国际评级体系(CAMELS)的主成分,建立银行稳定性指数,同时使用河内市和胡志明市的平均公寓价格指数作为越南房价的变量,并使用谷歌搜索量指数衡量投资者情绪。通过使用面板校正标准误差,研究证明了房价对越南银行业稳定性的积极影响,以及投资者情绪对这种积极影响的调节作用。此外,研究还表明银行效率、监管质量和 GDP 增长对促进银行业稳定性具有积极作用,而银行集中度则会产生相反的影响。此外,没有证据表明银行规模对越南银行业的稳定性有任何影响。
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引用次数: 0
Indebtedness and labor risk sorting across consumer lender types in Chile 智利各类消费贷款机构的债务和劳动风险分类
IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1057/s41261-024-00250-1
Carlos Madeira

Chile’s consumer loan market has strong concerns about high indebtedness levels and credit constraints. Using survey data, I show that banks have the borrowers of highest income and education and the lowest unemployment rates, while households with no access to debt have the lowest income and education and the highest unemployment risk. I then simulate the effects of counterfactual policies, such as increased borrower repayment capacity tests and better financial literacy. Repayment capacity testing reduces the number of borrowers, aggregate debt amounts, and debt risk across all lender types. Financial literacy program has even stronger effects, reducing the number of borrowers, aggregate debt amounts, and delinquency risk by more than half across all lender types. The financial literacy program achieves its effect by increasing the number of households with “No wish for debt,” while the repayment capacity test has the downside of increasing the number of households with “No access to debt.”

智利的消费贷款市场对高负债水平和信贷限制有着强烈的担忧。通过调查数据,我发现银行拥有收入和教育程度最高、失业率最低的借款人,而无法获得债务的家庭收入和教育程度最低,失业风险最高。然后,我模拟了反事实政策的效果,如加强借款人还款能力测试和提高金融知识水平。还款能力测试减少了所有贷款人类型的借款人数、债务总额和债务风险。金融知识普及计划的效果更为显著,在所有贷款人类型中,借款人数量、债务总额和拖欠风险都减少了一半以上。金融知识普及计划是通过增加 "不希望负债 "的家庭数量来实现其效果的,而偿还能力测试的缺点是增加了 "无法获得债务 "的家庭数量。
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引用次数: 0
Enforcement of sanctions within the SSM by European and national authorities: unravelling jurisdiction and accountability under Union law 欧洲和国家当局在 SSM 范围内执行制裁:解开欧盟法律下的管辖权和问责制的谜团
IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI: 10.1057/s41261-024-00249-8
Helene Hayden

Under the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), the enforcement of pecuniary obligations vis-à-vis the ECB, such as fees and sanctions, is unclear at two levels: first, the division of sanctioning powers between European authorities (ECB) and the ‘National Competent Authorities’ (NCAs) under primary and secondary law is rather unclear due to the underlying jumble of referrals. Second, the Article pivotal to enforcement, namely Art. 299 TFEU, constitutes only a ‘vague hybrid legal regime’ between European and national law, leaving credit institutions as well as the ECB exposed to considerable legal uncertainties and, as a result, additional costs. This paper examines both levels—which have received almost no attention in the literature so far—and offers concrete solutions to close the existing protection gaps.

在单一监管机制(SSM)下,对欧洲中央银行的金钱义务(如费用和制裁)的执行在两个层面上并不明确:首先,由于基本的转介杂乱无章,欧洲当局(欧洲中央银行)和 "国家主管当局"(NCAs)之间在一级和二级法律下的制裁权力划分相当不明确。其次,对执法至关重要的条款,即《欧盟运作条约》第 299 条,只构成了对执法的限制。其次,至关重要的执行条款,即《欧盟运作条约》(TFEU)第 299 条,仅构成欧洲法律和国家法律之间的 "模糊混合法律制度",使信贷机构和欧洲中央银行面临相当大的法律不确定性,并因此产生额外成本。本文对这两个层面进行了研究--迄今为止,这两个层面在文献中几乎没有得到关注--并提出了具体的解决方案来弥补现有的保护差距。
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引用次数: 0
The rise and fall of Silvergate Bank: lessons for prudential regulation of crypto-sector banking 银门银行的兴衰:加密银行业审慎监管的经验教训
IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1057/s41261-024-00243-0
Mark Warren

Silvergate Bank began to “wind down operations and voluntarily liquidate” its bank in March 2023. Whereas Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank would be shut down by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in the following days, this “crypto-sector bank” was able to satisfy depositor withdrawals and enter into voluntary liquidation. This paper examines how Silvergate Bank managed its balance sheet in a manner that maintained liquidity and its ability to satisfy substantial and unpredictable outflows from depositor withdrawals by its “crypto-firm” clients. Its approach was consistent with the ethos of the Basel III liquidity requirements to which many banks—though not Silvergate Bank—are subject. Yet the Silvergate model went further by recognising the idiosyncratic depositor dynamics of “crypto-firms”. This paper argues that prudential regulation should apply this model to (i) any bank that sources a substantial proportion of its funding from “crypto-firm” clients, irrespective of that bank’s size, and (ii) all deposits related to crypto-asset market participants at all banks.

银门银行于 2023 年 3 月开始 "结束运营,自愿清算"。硅谷银行(Silicon Valley Bank)和签名银行(Signature Bank)在接下来的日子里被联邦存款保险公司关闭,而这家 "加密行业银行 "却能够满足储户的提款要求并进入自愿清算程序。本文探讨了银门银行如何管理其资产负债表,以保持流动性,并有能力满足其 "加密公司 "客户因储户取款而产生的大量且不可预测的资金外流。其方法与巴塞尔协议 III 的流动性要求的精神是一致的,许多银行--虽然不是银门银行--都必须遵守巴塞尔协议 III 的流动性要求。然而,银门模式更进一步,承认了 "加密公司 "储户的特异性动态。本文认为,审慎监管应将这一模式适用于:(i) 任何资金大部分来自 "加密公司 "客户的银行,无论该银行的规模如何;(ii) 所有银行中与加密资产市场参与者相关的所有存款。
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引用次数: 0
Banks stock market reaction to the Italian and Spanish windfall tax announcement: an event study 银行股市对意大利和西班牙暴利税公告的反应:事件研究
IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-05-08 DOI: 10.1057/s41261-024-00246-x
António Miguel Martins

This paper analyses the Eurozone banks’ short-term market reaction to the introduction of windfall tax in Spain and Italy. Using an event study, I show that stocks react significantly negatively to the windfall tax announcements. The drop was more pronounced for Spanish and Italian banks, which were directly affected by the measure. According to the cash flow hypothesis, an increase in tax burdens/liabilities significantly affects the bank’s cash flows and profitability, leading to a decline in the bank’s market value. High-tax, small, operationally efficient, and profitable banks with high institutional ownership show higher negative abnormal returns to the measure announcement.

本文分析了欧元区银行对西班牙和意大利引入暴利税的短期市场反应。通过事件研究,我发现股票对暴利税公告的反应非常负面。受该措施直接影响的西班牙和意大利银行的股票下跌更为明显。根据现金流假设,税负/负债的增加会显著影响银行的现金流和盈利能力,从而导致银行市值下降。高税负、规模小、运营效率高、盈利能力强且机构持股比例高的银行在该措施公布后表现出更高的负异常收益。
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引用次数: 0
Bank’s strategic interaction, adverse price dynamics and systemic liquidity risk 银行的战略互动、不利的价格动态和系统性流动性风险
IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1057/s41261-024-00240-3
Ulrich Krüger, Christoph Roling, Leonid Silbermann, Lui-Hsian Wong

When a widespread funding shock hits the banking system, banks may engage in strategic behaviour to deal with funding shortages by a pre-emptive disposal of assets. Alternatively, they may adopt a more cautious strategy to mitigate price reactions, thereby distributing the assets sales into smaller portions over time. We model banks’ optimal behaviour using standard optimisation techniques and show that an equilibrium always exits in a stylised setting. A numerical analysis to approximate the equilibrium supplements the theoretical part. The implementation delivers two liquidity measures for the German banking system: the Systemic Liquidity Buffer and the Systemic Liquidity Shortfall. These measures are more informative about systemic liquidity risk than regulatory liquidity measures, such as the LCR, because they model adverse, nonlinear price dynamics in a more realistic way. Our approach is applied to different stress scenarios.

当银行系统受到广泛的资金冲击时,银行可能会采取战略性行为,通过先发制人地出售资产来应对资金短缺。或者,它们也可以采取更加谨慎的策略来减轻价格反应,从而在一段时间内将资产销售分成较小的部分。我们使用标准优化技术对银行的最优行为进行建模,结果表明,在一个风格化的环境中,均衡总是存在的。近似均衡的数值分析是对理论部分的补充。该方法的实施为德国银行系统提供了两种流动性衡量标准:系统流动性缓冲和系统流动性缺口。与 LCR 等监管流动性指标相比,这些指标更能反映系统性流动性风险,因为它们以更现实的方式模拟了不利的非线性价格动态。我们的方法适用于不同的压力情景。
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引用次数: 0
Central Bank Digital Currencies and financial integrity: finding a new trade-off between privacy and traceability within a changing financial architecture 中央银行数字货币与金融诚信:在不断变化的金融架构中寻找隐私与可追溯性之间的新平衡点
IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-03-20 DOI: 10.1057/s41261-024-00241-2
Giulio Soana, Thomaz de Arruda

In an increasingly digitised world, and within the new reality of digital finance, a fully digitised public currency seems to be a natural step. To this end, central banks have been testing the possibility to issue a digital form of the traditional fiat currency (so-called Central Bank Digital Currency-CBDC). As these projects steadily progress, and in some cases, reach the implementation phase, a myriad of questions, from legal to macroeconomic, arise. This paper aims to focus, in particular, on two complementary and co-related aspects involving CBCDs: (i) how can the full digitalisation and centralisation of the transaction ledger be combined with privacy and (ii) to what extent CBDCs affect the allocation of burden and the responsibility over supervision of retail transactions. Eminently, the use of cash ensures a form of default privacy that protects the individual against State and private intrusion. While this privacy has caused concern, due to its criminogenic potential, and has been consequently limited by anti-money laundering (AML) regulations, the remaining cone of shadow cash guarantees is a crucial limit to control. In the context of a shifting financial system, undergoing deep transformation due to increasing datafication and decentralisation of the market, a new governance of financial supervision and record-keeping—up to now based on a unique and centralised ledger—is crucial to redefine the trade-off between financial integrity and privacy. This article will examine the origins and characteristics of CBDCs, to then analyse how the trade-off between control and privacy is set to reshape this new architecture.

在日益数字化的世界中,在数字金融的新现实中,完全数字化的公共货币似乎是理所当然的一步。为此,各国中央银行一直在测试发行传统法定货币的数字形式(即所谓的 "中央银行数字货币")的可能性。随着这些项目的稳步推进,在某些情况下已进入实施阶段,从法律到宏观经济等方面的问题层出不穷。本文旨在特别关注涉及央行数字货币的两个互补和相关方面:(i) 如何将交易分类账的全面数字化和集中化与隐私保护相结合;(ii) 央行数字货币在多大程度上影响零售交易的负担分配和监管责任。最重要的是,现金的使用确保了一种默认的隐私形式,保护个人免受国家和私人的侵犯。虽然这种隐私因其潜在的犯罪性而引起关注,并因此受到反洗钱(AML)法规的限制,但剩余的影子现金担保锥是控制的关键限制。由于市场日益数据化和分散化,金融体系正在发生深刻变革,在此背景下,一种新的金融监管和记录管理方式--迄今为止一直以独一无二的集中式分类账为基础--对于重新定义金融诚信与隐私之间的权衡至关重要。本文将研究 CBDC 的起源和特点,然后分析控制与隐私之间的权衡将如何重塑这一新架构。
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引用次数: 0
The whistle-blower as a private enforcement tool in the EU banking sector: call for clarity 将举报人作为欧盟银行业的私人执法工具:呼吁明确规定
IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1057/s41261-024-00238-x
Dimitrios Kafteranis

Following the financial crises and several scandals, the issue of whistleblowing has re-emerged for the banking and financial sector. These events led the EU to adopt provisions on whistleblowing in several EU legal acts concerning the banking sector such as in the Single Supervisory Mechanism. On October 2019, the EU adopted the Directive on the protection of persons who report breaches of Union law (Directive on the protection of whistle-blowers). The EU decided to offer to the Member States a new enforcement tool, inspired, probably, by the long-existing US model on the use of whistle-blowers as private enforcers. The first part of the article will analyse the relationship between private enforcement and whistleblowing under EU law. In the second part of this article, whistleblowing in the EU banking sector will be scrutinised and it will be argued that the sectoral provisions in the banking sector should be replaced by the Directive to ensure clarity for whistle-blowers.

在金融危机和几起丑闻之后,举报问题再次出现在银行和金融领域。这些事件促使欧盟在《单一监管机制》等几部与银行业有关的欧盟法案中通过了有关举报的规定。2019 年 10 月,欧盟通过了《关于保护违反欧盟法律的举报人的指令》(《关于保护举报人的指令》)。欧盟决定向成员国提供一种新的执法工具,其灵感可能来自美国长期存在的利用举报人作为私人执法者的模式。文章的第一部分将分析欧盟法律中私人执法与举报之间的关系。文章的第二部分将仔细研究欧盟银行业的举报问题,并认为银行业的部门规定应由《指令》取代,以确保举报人的知情权。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of macroprudential strategy documents: Are they ready for the challenges ahead? 评估宏观审慎战略文件:它们准备好应对未来的挑战了吗?
IF 1.6 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1057/s41261-024-00239-w

Abstract

Macroprudential policy is still a relatively new policy area (“more art than science”). Unlike monetary policy, it still does not have any tested and robust strategies to follow. Using a novel strategy index, we explore and critically review macroprudential strategy documents published in 30 countries in 2014–2023. The overall results point to fairly high quality of strategies, with low level of heterogeneity in the total score. Most strategy documents were published by central banks responsible for macroprudential policy. The score for strategies in European Union (EU) countries is higher and more homogenous than in non-EU countries. Elements least frequently included in the strategies include challenges for macroprudential policy (like cyber or climate risks) and its interactions with other policy areas. Macroprudential strategies were mostly issued after the credit boom. The results provide relevant policy implications on future revisions of this kind of document.

摘要 宏观审慎政策仍然是一个相对较新的政策领域("艺术多于科学")。与货币政策不同,它仍然没有任何经过检验的稳健战略可循。我们利用新颖的战略指数,探讨并严格审查了 30 个国家在 2014-2023 年间发布的宏观审慎战略文件。总体结果表明,策略的质量相当高,总分的异质性较低。大多数战略文件由负责宏观审慎政策的中央银行发布。欧盟(EU)国家的战略得分高于非欧盟国家,且同质性更高。宏观审慎政策面临的挑战(如网络风险或气候风险)及其与其他政策领域的互动是这些战略中最不常见的内容。宏观审慎战略大多是在信贷繁荣之后发布的。研究结果为今后修订此类文件提供了相关的政策影响。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Banking Regulation
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