The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is the latest in a series of global high-consequence respiratory virus outbreaks. In prior years, we faced the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) during 2002–2003,1 swine-like H1N1 influenza A virus in 20092 and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) during 2012.3 We continue to confront the seasonal recurrence of coronaviruses and influenza viruses, and our extensive agricultural practises and ongoing deforestation are considered major drivers of infectious zoonotic disease outbreaks. This, paired with the ever-increasing globalisation of our world, means additional respiratory pandemics are a real possibility in our future.
For COVID-19, early pandemic public health responses focussed on nonpharmaceutical interventions, and control measures were implemented globally to limit viral spread and slow down any potential overwhelming of healthcare systems. These interventions included border closures and travel restrictions, closing of day-care centres, schools, restaurants and shops, the cancellation of mass events, mandatory wearing of face masks and numerous physical isolation measures. The near-simultaneous global implementation of these nonpharmaceutical interventions helped to slow down the community transmission of SARS-CoV-2, mitigated the burden of disease on healthcare resources and allowed time to develop vaccines and treatments. An unexpected but positive phenomenon resulting from the mass implementation of these pandemic measures was the significant drop in non-COVID-19 respiratory viral infections and gastrointestinal viral infections globally.4-7
An astounding decrease in influenza virus infections in both northern and southern hemispheres was by far one of the most noteworthy changes in non-COVID-19 disease incidence during the pandemic period.8-10 Comprehensive analysis of the GISRS FluNet database in a 2022 study10 showed that influenza cases sharply fell during the initial months of the pandemic to <100 cases per week. Compared with prepandemic numbers of ~50 000 cases per week during the 2018–2020 winter seasons, this constituted an unprecedented 99.8% reduction in incidence of influenza disease. Similarly, in the Southern Hemisphere, activity during the 2017–2019 winter seasons peaked between 1500 and 3500 positive cases per week, with a sharp decline following the start of the pandemic; influenza cases dropped to < 12 per week during May 2020 in this hemisphere, with cases remaining < 100 per week until November 2021.11 The reduction in community respiratory virus activity led to additional downstream effects, including associated decreases in secondary bacterial infections such as invasive pneumococcal diseases.12-14
With the