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Tiered Intermediation in Business Groups and Targeted SME Supports 企业集团分层中介和中小企业定向支持
Pub Date : 2020-10-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3722173
Yu Shi, R. Townsend, Wu Zhu
Using business registry data from China, we show that internal capital markets in business groups can play the role of financial intermediary and propagate corporate shareholders’ credit supply shocks to their subsidiaries. An average of 16.7% local bank credit growth where corporate shareholders are located would increase subsidiaries investment by 1% of their tangible fixed asset value, which accounts for 71% (7%) of the median (average) investment rate among these firms. We argue that equity exchanges is one channel through which corporate shareholders transmit bank credit supply shocks to the subsidiaries and provide evidence to support the channel.
利用中国工商登记数据,我们发现企业集团内部资本市场可以发挥金融中介的作用,并将企业股东的信贷供给冲击传播给子公司。公司股东所在的当地银行信贷平均增长16.7%,将使子公司的有形固定资产价值增加1%,占这些公司中位数(平均)投资率的71%(7%)。本文认为股权交换是公司股东将银行信贷供应冲击传递给子公司的一个渠道,并提供证据支持这一渠道。
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引用次数: 1
The Impact of Covid-19 Spread on Stock Markets: The Case of the GCC Countries 新冠肺炎疫情对股市的影响:以海湾合作委员会国家为例
Pub Date : 2020-10-21 DOI: 10.5539/ibr.v13n11p16
N. Alber, Amr Saleh
This paper attempts to investigate the effects of 2020 Covid-19 world-wide spread on stock markets of GCC countries. Coronavirus spread has been measured by cumulative cases, new cases, cumulative deaths and new deaths. Coronavirus spread has been measured by numbers per million of population, while stock market return is measured by Δ in stock market index. Papers conducted in this topic tend to analyze Coronavirus spread in the highly infected countries and focus on the developed stock markets. Countries with low level of infection that have emerging financial markets seem to be less attractive to scholars concerning with Coronavirus spread on stock markets. This is why we try to investigate the GCC stock markets reaction to Covid-19 spread.   Findings show that there are significant differences among stock market indices during the research period. Besides, stock market returns seem to be sensitive to Coronavirus new deaths. Moreover, this has been confirmed for March without any evidence about these effects during April and May 2020.
本文试图探讨2020年Covid-19全球传播对海湾合作委员会国家股票市场的影响。冠状病毒的传播是通过累积病例、新病例、累积死亡和新死亡来衡量的。冠状病毒的传播是用每百万人口的数量来衡量的,而股市的回报是用股市指数Δ来衡量的。这一主题的论文倾向于分析冠状病毒在高感染国家的传播,并关注发达国家的股票市场。对于关注新冠病毒在股市传播的学者来说,具有新兴金融市场的低感染水平国家似乎没有那么有吸引力。这就是为什么我们试图调查海湾合作委员会股票市场对Covid-19传播的反应。研究发现,在研究期间,股票市场指数之间存在显著差异。此外,股市回报似乎对冠状病毒新死亡病例很敏感。此外,这在3月份得到了证实,但在2020年4月和5月没有任何证据表明这些影响。
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引用次数: 17
What If the New Normal Included Using Payment Data to Support Under-Documented Firms?: A Central Bank Experience During COVID-19 如果新常态包括使用支付数据来支持文件不足的公司会怎样?中央银行在COVID-19期间的经验
Pub Date : 2020-10-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3716415
D. Reiss, João Manoel Pinho de Mello
Obtaining credit by micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSME) is typically hampered by a lack of supporting documents. Here, we report the use of payment oversight data to fill up this gap during COVID-19 countermeasures and suggest that central banks' supervisory information may help achieve competition or inclusiveness goals.
微型、小型和中型企业(MSME)获得信贷通常受到缺乏证明文件的阻碍。在此,我们报告了在COVID-19对策期间使用支付监管数据来填补这一空白,并建议央行的监管信息可能有助于实现竞争或包容性目标。
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引用次数: 0
Corruption, Terrorism and the Stock Market: The Evidence from Iraq 腐败、恐怖主义和股票市场:来自伊拉克的证据
Pub Date : 2020-10-10 DOI: 10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no10.629
Zeravan Abdulmuhsen Asaad, B. Marane
The current study explains how corruption, terrorism, political stability and oil price has an effect on on the Iraq stock exchange utilizing corruption perception index as a proxy of corruption, global terrorism index as proxy for terrorism, political stability and oil price with ISX60 index as proxy of stock market for the period (2005-2019) using Ordinary Least Square method. The results show that the level of corruption, terrorism activities and political stability coefficient is significantly positive with Iraq stock exchange. In contrast, the oil price coefficient is significantly negative with Iraq stock exchange, which means that lower levels of corruption, less terrorism activities and more stability in political system have strong influence on stock market development in Iraq. The study concludes that the explanatory variables are important for Iraq stock exchange. Hence, the study suggests the policy makers to develop stock market by implementing policies and strategies to overcome high level of corruption, terrorism activities especially after ISIS/ISIL announcement has been made public. There is a need for transparency and creating stable political environment through good governance practices in order to attract more foreign investment and promote economic development. Factors like terrorism and corruption make economic and political systems unstable and has an adverse effect on on Iraq’s stock exchange performance.
本研究使用普通最小二乘法解释了腐败、恐怖主义、政治稳定和石油价格如何影响伊拉克证券交易所,利用腐败感知指数作为腐败的代理,全球恐怖主义指数作为恐怖主义的代理,政治稳定和石油价格以ISX60指数作为2005-2019年期间股票市场的代理。结果表明,腐败程度、恐怖活动程度和政治稳定系数与伊拉克证券交易所显著正相关。相比之下,石油价格系数与伊拉克证券交易所显著负相关,这意味着较低的腐败水平,较少的恐怖活动和更稳定的政治制度对伊拉克股市的发展有很强的影响。研究表明,解释变量对伊拉克证券交易所具有重要意义。因此,该研究建议政策制定者通过实施政策和战略来发展股票市场,以克服高度腐败和恐怖主义活动,特别是在ISIS/ISIL公告公开之后。为了吸引更多的外国投资和促进经济发展,需要透明度和通过良好的治理做法创造稳定的政治环境。恐怖主义和腐败等因素使经济和政治制度不稳定,并对伊拉克证券交易所的表现产生不利影响。
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引用次数: 11
How Poor Bangladeshi Households Behave Regarding Access to Commitment Savings Products 孟加拉国贫困家庭在获得承诺储蓄产品方面的表现如何
Pub Date : 2020-10-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3715623
C. Laureti, Mélanie Volral
Access to commitment savings products is known to increase poor households’ savings. In this paper we analyze the process through which households change their savings behavior, by exploiting a unique dataset released by SafeSave, a Bangladeshi microfinance institution that launched the Long Term Savings commitment product in 2009. First, we find that households increase their savings a few months before they open the commitment product. Then, distinguishing early takers (who take up the commitment account immediately) and late takers (who wait at least three months), we show that the increase of savings is driven by the later group. We interpret this as evidence that households prepare themselves before taking-up the commitment account. The existence of such preparation stage is in line with the “transtheoretical model of behavior change” (Prochaska and DiClemente, 1982; 1983) found in the psychological literature. Our paper suggests that poor households are more forward-looking than previously thought.
众所周知,获得承诺储蓄产品可以增加贫困家庭的储蓄。在本文中,我们通过利用SafeSave发布的独特数据集,分析了家庭改变储蓄行为的过程。SafeSave是一家孟加拉国小额信贷机构,于2009年推出了长期储蓄承诺产品。首先,我们发现家庭在开通承诺产品前几个月增加了储蓄。然后,我们区分了早期接受者(立即开始使用承诺账户)和晚期接受者(至少等待三个月),我们表明储蓄的增加是由后一组驱动的。我们将此解释为家庭在承担承诺账户之前做好准备的证据。这种准备阶段的存在符合“行为改变的跨理论模型”(Prochaska and DiClemente, 1982;1983)在心理学文献中发现。我们的论文表明,贫困家庭比以前认为的更有远见。
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引用次数: 0
Relationship between Cost of Bank Lending and NEPSE Index: Nepal Case 银行贷款成本与NEPSE指数的关系:尼泊尔案例
Pub Date : 2020-10-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3703435
Krishna Paul, Post Raj Pokharel
The main objective of this study is to examine the impact of the macroeconomic indicators such as interest rate, real GDP, money supply and inflation on Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) Index. This study is an empirical research based on secondary data and used the time series data for the total period of 24 years from fiscal year 1994 to 2018. The results of correlation analysis showed that broad money supply, real GDP and CPI have a statistically significant linear relationship with NEPSE index. However, T-bill rate and NEPSE index have a statistically insignificant linear relationship. Furthermore, the results of regression analysis showed that money supply is significant in predicting NEPSE index of the investors. Interest rate, real GDP and CPI are found to be insignificant in predicting NEPSE index. Similarly, relationship between stock market performance and macroeconomic variables is of pertinent importance to policy makers, regulators, academicians, researchers and investment community.
本研究的主要目的是研究宏观经济指标,如利率,实际GDP,货币供应量和通货膨胀对尼泊尔证券交易所(NEPSE)指数的影响。本研究是基于二手数据的实证研究,使用了1994 - 2018财年共24年的时间序列数据。相关分析结果表明,广义货币供应量、实际GDP和CPI与NEPSE指数呈显著的线性关系。而国库券利率与NEPSE指数的线性关系在统计学上不显著。此外,回归分析结果显示,货币供应量对投资者的NEPSE指数有显著的预测作用。发现利率、实际GDP和CPI对NEPSE指数的预测不显著。同样,股市表现与宏观经济变量之间的关系对政策制定者、监管者、学者、研究人员和投资界都具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 1
Government Ownership and Venture Capital in China 中国的政府所有制与风险投资
Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3788725
Jo‐Ann Suchard, M. Humphery‐Jenner, Jerry X. Cao
China’s Venture Capital (VC) market features significant government ownership of VCs. We examine the impact of government owned VCs on the exit success of entrepreneurial firms. We distinguish between types of government VC according to the degree of government ownership (wholly versus partially owned) and the level of government (central versus provincial government). We find that partially government owned VCs (though not wholly government owned VCs) increase the likelihood of a successful exit. Partially government owned VCs especially increase the likelihood of an IPO in mainland China, where the IPO process is discretionary and heavily government regulated. Entrepreneurial firms backed by partially government owned VCs are also more able to be exited at times of policy uncertainty and the timing of exit is less sensitive to market conditions. Investment from a provincial government owned VC increases exit likelihood. However, this advantage decreases as the number of provincial government owned VCs invested in the firm increases. Our findings suggest that entrepreneurial firms may benefit through political connections from government VC investment, but that complete government control of a VC can lead to inefficiencies.
中国的风险投资(VC)市场的特点是政府拥有大量的风险投资。我们考察了政府所有的风险投资对创业公司退出成功的影响。我们根据政府所有权的程度(全资还是部分拥有)和政府级别(中央还是省级政府)来区分政府风险投资的类型。我们发现,部分政府拥有的风险投资(尽管不是完全政府拥有的风险投资)增加了成功退出的可能性。在中国大陆,部分政府控股的风投公司尤其增加了IPO的可能性,因为IPO过程是自由裁量的,而且受到政府的严格监管。由部分政府拥有的风险投资支持的创业公司在政策不确定时期也更有能力退出,退出的时间对市场情况不太敏感。省级政府所有的风险投资增加了退出的可能性。然而,这种优势随着投资公司的省级政府拥有的风投数量的增加而减少。我们的研究结果表明,创业公司可能会从政府风险投资的政治关系中受益,但政府对风险投资的完全控制可能导致效率低下。
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引用次数: 15
Capital Structure and Financial Performance: Case Study from Pakistan Pharmaceutical Sector 资本结构与财务绩效:以巴基斯坦制药行业为例
Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3702885
Muhammad Rehan, S. S. Karaca, Jahanzaib Alvi
The main purpose of this research is to find out the relationship between capital structure and the firm's financial performance of the listed Pharmaceutical companies in the Pakistan Stock Exchange. A further specific objective is to find out the relation of debt-equity with gross profit, earning per share, and return on capital and return on equity. This research determines that Capital Structure is adversely linked with the profitability, it suggests that a decrease in the profitability of the organizations is due to an increase in debt capital & vice versa, further the results proclaims that capital is not dramatically significant and impacting, hence results in records that debt to equity is nothing to do with ROE, increasing or decrease in debt or equity financing would affect ROE.
本研究的主要目的是找出巴基斯坦证券交易所上市制药公司的资本结构与公司财务绩效之间的关系。进一步的具体目标是找出债务-股本与毛利润、每股收益、资本收益率和股本收益率的关系。本研究确定资本结构与盈利能力呈负相关,这表明组织盈利能力的下降是由于债务资本的增加;反之亦然,进一步的结果表明,资本并没有显著的显著性和影响,从而导致负债与股权的比率与ROE无关的记录,债务或股权融资的增加或减少都会影响ROE。
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引用次数: 2
Subsidizing Failing Firms: Evidence from Chinese Restaurants 补贴倒闭企业:来自中国餐馆的证据
Pub Date : 2020-09-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3692525
Yinglu Deng, Fangzhou Lu, Jiaheng Yu, Hao Zheng
Can government stimulus or private-sector subsidization save small businesses in the COVID-19 crisis? Leveraging a large dataset on the chained restaurants in China, we find that rent reduction programs significantly increase survival rates. Rent reduction by the equivalent of a restaurant employee's annual salary can save at least one job. Rent reductions increase the financial strength of restaurants, and lead to strategic reactions of the restaurants to lean against the crisis, including increasing order discounts and promoting take-out and delivery services. Moreover, the effect of rent reduction is heterogeneous, increasing the monthly revenue by 69% for franchise-based restaurants, 51% for small company-owned restaurants, and 28% for large company-owned restaurants. Our results suggest that the organizational structure and the size of a firm can have large impact on the effectiveness and pass-through of financial stimulus programs, such as the Paycheck Protection Program.
政府刺激措施或私营部门补贴能否在2019冠状病毒病危机中拯救小企业?利用中国连锁餐厅的大型数据集,我们发现租金减免计划显著提高了存活率。减少相当于餐馆员工年薪的房租,至少可以挽救一份工作。租金降低增加了餐馆的财务实力,并导致餐馆的战略反应,以抵御危机,包括增加订单折扣和促进外卖服务。此外,降低租金的效果是不均匀的,特许经营餐厅的月收入增加了69%,小公司所有的餐厅增加了51%,大公司所有的餐厅增加了28%。我们的研究结果表明,企业的组织结构和规模会对财政刺激计划(如工资保护计划)的有效性和传递产生重大影响。
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引用次数: 0
Did Financial Markets Overreact to COVID-19? 金融市场对COVID-19反应过度了吗?
Pub Date : 2020-09-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3694278
Calvin W. H. Cheong, M. Ariff, N. Subramaniam
Prior studies have shown that the COVID-19 pandemic has led to negative returns and increased volatilities in various financial markets. Not many however have sought to investigate why. With anecdotal evidence pointing to investors earning abnormal returns despite the pandemic, this paper sought to determine whether markets – for whatever reason – were overreacting to the pandemic. Using a sample of the largest 3,000 companies across 15 countries, we found evidence that markets were overreacting to various COVID-19 events. Specifically, we found that markets showed strong signs of reversal in response to negative events (e.g. lockdowns, confirmed cases, deaths). Positive events (e.g. vaccine development, recoveries) did not elicit a similar response. Our results suggest that the volatilities and negative returns during the sample period may be driven by non-COVID factors. This will have profound implications for future COVID-financial markets research and government policy as it redirects attention to individual countries rather than adopting a “global” approach to research or policy-setting.
先前的研究表明,新冠肺炎大流行导致各种金融市场的负回报和波动性增加。然而,没有多少人试图调查其中的原因。鉴于坊间证据表明,尽管疫情肆虐,投资者仍获得了异常回报,本文试图确定市场是否出于某种原因对疫情反应过度。通过对15个国家最大的3000家公司的抽样调查,我们发现了市场对各种COVID-19事件反应过度的证据。具体而言,我们发现市场在应对负面事件(如封锁、确诊病例、死亡)时显示出强烈的逆转迹象。积极事件(如疫苗开发、恢复)没有引起类似的反应。我们的研究结果表明,样本期内的波动性和负收益可能是由非covid因素驱动的。这将对未来的covid - 19金融市场研究和政府政策产生深远影响,因为它将注意力重新转向个别国家,而不是采用“全球”方法进行研究或政策制定。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Emerging Markets: Finance eJournal
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