Journal of chronic diseases最新文献

In regulatory or decision-making contexLs related to carcinogenic hazards, one would like to know the extra risks associated with various levels, durations, and ages of exposure to a carcinogen. To supply that information, quantitative risk assessments are required that make extrapolations on variables related to dose levels, timing of exposure, and age. Quantitative models that express age-specific mortality rates as functions of the exposure pattern and that allow such extrapolations to be made are presented. The uncertainty inherently associated with those extrapolations is discussed and is found to be exacerbated by small data sets and inadequate data availability. Specific examples are provided that involve asbestos-induced mesothelioma and leukemia caused by benzene exposure.

To examine sociodemographic, menstrual, reproductive, and other factors which may influence the age at natural menopause, the authors analyzed data from a large series of women participating in a nationwide breast cancer screening program conducted between 1973 and 1980. Standard life table techniques permitted assessment of factors suspected of varying the time to menstrual cessation among 983 premenopausal women, 1091 surgically menopausal women, and 1423 naturally menopausal women. The median age at natural menopause was 51.1 years. Multivariate analysis indicated that parity, irregularity of menstrual cycles before age 25 or first livebirth, and high socioeconomic status were significantly related to menopausal age. These data provide evidence for the hypothesis that certain environmental and hormonal factors which affect ovulation during reproductive years may ultimately postpone the menopause.

This paper analyzes the mortality of Mexican Americans and Puerto Ricans residing in the Chicago metropolitan area. In a comparison of these two groups with nonHispanic whites in the same area, it was found that Hispanic mortality is unusually low for the two leading causes of death in the mainstream U.S. population. Explanations discussed include underdiagnosis, underreporting of illness, the “healthy migrant” thesis and possible return migration of elderly ill.

Hospital admissions for herniated lumbar intervertebral disc or sciatica were followed up over a period of 11 years in 57,000 men and women who had participated in medical check-ups in various parts of Finland. Information on their hospitalizations after the baseline examination was obtained by record linkage to the National Hospital Discharge Register. To identify factors predicting back diseases, four controls matched individually for sex, age and place of residence were chosen for each of the 592 incidence cases who were free from severe back trouble and aged 20–59 at entry. Low or intermediate social class and blue-collar occupations in services or industry in men and symptoms suggesting psychological distress in women proved significant predictors for hospitalization due to herniated lumbar disc or sciatica. An association with the risk was suggested for smoking or chronic cough in men and parity in women. Marital status or leisure time physical activity were not predictive of herniated lumbar intervertebral disc or sciatica.

The association between level of alcohol consumption and 15-year mortality, focusing particularly on the possible protective effect of light drinking compared to abstention, was studied in a representative population sample of 6928 residents of Alameda County, California. Because abstainers differ from light, moderate and heavy drinkers on a number of demographic, physical, and psychosocial characteristics, the role of these as confounders of the alcohol/mortality association was examined. Using multiple logistic models, the mortality experience of abstainers, moderate drinkers, heavy drinkers and very heavy drinkers was compared with that of light drinkers. Among men only, very heavy drinkers were at significantly greater risk of death from all causes than were light drinkers (OR = 2.5, p < 0.01). Neither abstainers nor other drinkers were at significantly higher risk of death from ischemic heart disease than were light drinkers. This pattern of results persisted with adjustment for 11 covariates of alcohol consumption in addition to age.

Existing classifications of research designs for epidemiologic studies are inconsistent and confusing because of the conceptual “confounding” of three distinct concepts: (1) directionality in which exposure and outcome are investigated, (2) sample selection criteria, and (3) timing of the study proper with respect to the calendar times of exposure and outcome. The authors have attempted to construct a classification in which these three concepts comprise distinct (if not totally independent) axes. Closer attention to the distinctions described may help the planning and interpretation of epidemiologic studies, as well as facilitate future teaching and communication.

The accuracy of routinely collected mortality data for ischemic heart disease (IHD) as indicators of death from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) was assessed in ages 25–64 years, according to the WHO criteria defined in 1983. Cases were identified from computer records (linked for individuals) of all death certificates and hospital discharges in Western Australia between 1971 and 1982. Where the official cause was IHD about 90% of deaths fulfilled the WHO criteria for definite or possible AMI. Up to 10% of fatal cases of definite or possible AMI were coded to other causes in the official death statistics, however it appeared that variations in this figure with changes in coding practices could cause appreciable bias in the estimation of secular trends in IHD mortality. This problem could largely be overcome by reviewing fatal events where the death certificate was coded to one of a limited number of other ICD rubrics.