Using data on country funds, the authors study how differential access to information affects international investment. They find that past changes in net asset values (NAVs) and discounts predict current country fund prices more commonly than prices and discounts predict NAVs. The price (NAV) adjustment coefficients are low and negatively correlated with the local (foreign) market variability -- but not with the fund price (NAV) variability. NAVs seem to be closer to local information. They are the asset prices that react first to local news. Later the country fund holders receive the information and those prices react after NAVs have reacted. The 1995 Mexican crisis and the 1997 Asian crisis are two examples of this type of behavior. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis of asymmetric information, according to which the holders of the underlying assets have more information about local assets than the country fund holders do. The authors empirically test the asymmetric information hypothesis against the noise traders hypothesis. A theoretical model is presented in the appendix.
{"title":"Country Funds and Asymmetric Information","authors":"Jeffrey A. Frankel, S. Schmukler","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-1886","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-1886","url":null,"abstract":"Using data on country funds, the authors study how differential access to information affects international investment. They find that past changes in net asset values (NAVs) and discounts predict current country fund prices more commonly than prices and discounts predict NAVs. The price (NAV) adjustment coefficients are low and negatively correlated with the local (foreign) market variability -- but not with the fund price (NAV) variability. NAVs seem to be closer to local information. They are the asset prices that react first to local news. Later the country fund holders receive the information and those prices react after NAVs have reacted. The 1995 Mexican crisis and the 1997 Asian crisis are two examples of this type of behavior. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis of asymmetric information, according to which the holders of the underlying assets have more information about local assets than the country fund holders do. The authors empirically test the asymmetric information hypothesis against the noise traders hypothesis. A theoretical model is presented in the appendix.","PeriodicalId":166412,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: International Economics (Topic)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1997-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130734774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The issue of "spillover or contagion" effects has acquired renewed importance in light of the Mexican crisis in December 1994 and the effect that this event has had on other emerging market economies. Relatively little empirical analysis exists on how small open economies are affected by economic developments in their neighbors and what role financial markets play in the transmission of disturbances. This paper attempts to fill that gap by examining recent developments in emerging equity markets in Asia and Latin America and longer term trends and cycles in capital flows to Latin American economies and their sensitivity to events in the larger countries in the region.
{"title":"Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?","authors":"Sara Calvo, Carmen M. Reinhart","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-1619","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-1619","url":null,"abstract":"The issue of \"spillover or contagion\" effects has acquired renewed importance in light of the Mexican crisis in December 1994 and the effect that this event has had on other emerging market economies. Relatively little empirical analysis exists on how small open economies are affected by economic developments in their neighbors and what role financial markets play in the transmission of disturbances. This paper attempts to fill that gap by examining recent developments in emerging equity markets in Asia and Latin America and longer term trends and cycles in capital flows to Latin American economies and their sensitivity to events in the larger countries in the region.","PeriodicalId":166412,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: International Economics (Topic)","volume":"84 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1996-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126208389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Because many developing countries fail to report trade statistics to the United Nations, there has been an interest in using partner-country data to fill these information gaps. The author used partner-country statistics for 30 developing countries to "estimate" actual (concealed) trade data and analyzed the magnitude of the resulting errors. The results indicate that partner-country data are unreliable even for estimating trade in broad aggregate product groups such as foodstuffs, fuels, or manufactures. Moreover, tests show that the reliability of partner-country statistics degenerates sharply as one moves to more finely distinguished trade categories (lower-level SITCs). Equally disturbing, about one-quarter of the partner-country comparisons take the wrong sign. That is, one country's reported free-on-board (f.o.b.) exports exceed the reported cost-insurance-freight (c.i.f.) value of partners' imports. Aside from product composition, tests show that partner-country data are equally inaccurate for estimating the direction of trade. Why are partner-country data so unreliable for approximating "missing" data? Evidence shows: 1) problems in reporting or processing COMTRADE data; 2) valuation differences (f.o.b. versus c.i.f.) for imports and exports; 3) problems relating to entrepot trade, or exports originating in export processing zones; 4) problems associated with exchange-rate changes; 5) intentional or unintentional misclassification of products; 6) efforts to "conceal" trade data for proprietary reasons; and 7) financial incentives to purposely falsify trade data. The author concludes that efforts to improve the general quality, or availability, of trade statistics using partner-country data holds little or no promise, although this information may be useful in specific cases where the trade statistics of a certain country are known to incorporate major errors. Significant progress in ugrading the accuracy, and coverage, of trade statistics can be achieved only by improving each country's procedures for data collection.
{"title":"Are Partner-Country Statistics Useful for Estimating Missing Trade Data?","authors":"A. Yeats","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-1501","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-1501","url":null,"abstract":"Because many developing countries fail to report trade statistics to the United Nations, there has been an interest in using partner-country data to fill these information gaps. The author used partner-country statistics for 30 developing countries to \"estimate\" actual (concealed) trade data and analyzed the magnitude of the resulting errors. The results indicate that partner-country data are unreliable even for estimating trade in broad aggregate product groups such as foodstuffs, fuels, or manufactures. Moreover, tests show that the reliability of partner-country statistics degenerates sharply as one moves to more finely distinguished trade categories (lower-level SITCs). Equally disturbing, about one-quarter of the partner-country comparisons take the wrong sign. That is, one country's reported free-on-board (f.o.b.) exports exceed the reported cost-insurance-freight (c.i.f.) value of partners' imports. Aside from product composition, tests show that partner-country data are equally inaccurate for estimating the direction of trade. Why are partner-country data so unreliable for approximating \"missing\" data? Evidence shows: 1) problems in reporting or processing COMTRADE data; 2) valuation differences (f.o.b. versus c.i.f.) for imports and exports; 3) problems relating to entrepot trade, or exports originating in export processing zones; 4) problems associated with exchange-rate changes; 5) intentional or unintentional misclassification of products; 6) efforts to \"conceal\" trade data for proprietary reasons; and 7) financial incentives to purposely falsify trade data. The author concludes that efforts to improve the general quality, or availability, of trade statistics using partner-country data holds little or no promise, although this information may be useful in specific cases where the trade statistics of a certain country are known to incorporate major errors. Significant progress in ugrading the accuracy, and coverage, of trade statistics can be achieved only by improving each country's procedures for data collection.","PeriodicalId":166412,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: International Economics (Topic)","volume":"99 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1995-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127331801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The author examines the impact of the Uruguay Round on four South Asian countries with similar trade structures: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. These countries are major exporters of textiles and clothing and some agriculture. Their manufacturing sectors - especially textiles and clothing - would seem to be the main beneficiaries of the Round. The impact on agriculture should be modest. The Round improves market security for both exporters and importers, but these countries must do much more to adjust their domestic policies to the realities of the post-Round global environment. There must be further liberalization and more integration with both the region and the world. The trade regimes of the four countries are a mixed bag. All have launched major trade reform away from an inward orientation. They have liberalized trade by removing quantitative restrictions and reducing tariffs, but the degree of liberalization varies. India has done a lot to open up its economy but has not moved forcefully enough to remove restrictions on most imports of consumer goods. Pakistan retains heavy restrictions on many imports but is reducing tariff rates and their dispersion. Quantitative restrictions on imported inputs impede efficiency in Bangladesh textile and pharmaceutical industries. Sri Lanka's trade regime is the most liberal in the region, but anomalies still exist in incentives. Binding tariffs in the four countries must be greatly reduced before these countries can benefit from the Round's disciplines in agriculture. The dismantling of the Multifiber Agreement will increase South Asia's output of textiles by 17 percent, and their exports of textiles by 26 percent. Output on clothing will increase ninefold, and exports more than twentyfold. The region may also benefit from the more liberalized post-Round markets for semi-manufacturing exports. In general, negotiations about new issues - trade in services, trade-related aspects of intellectual property rights, and trade-related investment measures - will affect South Asia in different ways. The impact on the movement of labor, in which the region has a comparative advantage, seems to be more effective than in other areas. More disciplined rules to protect intellectual property rights and more transparency about investment and competition policies will benefit the region in the longer run.
{"title":"The Uruguay Round and South Asia: An Overview of the Impact and Opportunities","authors":"N. Majd","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-1484","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-1484","url":null,"abstract":"The author examines the impact of the Uruguay Round on four South Asian countries with similar trade structures: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. These countries are major exporters of textiles and clothing and some agriculture. Their manufacturing sectors - especially textiles and clothing - would seem to be the main beneficiaries of the Round. The impact on agriculture should be modest. The Round improves market security for both exporters and importers, but these countries must do much more to adjust their domestic policies to the realities of the post-Round global environment. There must be further liberalization and more integration with both the region and the world. The trade regimes of the four countries are a mixed bag. All have launched major trade reform away from an inward orientation. They have liberalized trade by removing quantitative restrictions and reducing tariffs, but the degree of liberalization varies. India has done a lot to open up its economy but has not moved forcefully enough to remove restrictions on most imports of consumer goods. Pakistan retains heavy restrictions on many imports but is reducing tariff rates and their dispersion. Quantitative restrictions on imported inputs impede efficiency in Bangladesh textile and pharmaceutical industries. Sri Lanka's trade regime is the most liberal in the region, but anomalies still exist in incentives. Binding tariffs in the four countries must be greatly reduced before these countries can benefit from the Round's disciplines in agriculture. The dismantling of the Multifiber Agreement will increase South Asia's output of textiles by 17 percent, and their exports of textiles by 26 percent. Output on clothing will increase ninefold, and exports more than twentyfold. The region may also benefit from the more liberalized post-Round markets for semi-manufacturing exports. In general, negotiations about new issues - trade in services, trade-related aspects of intellectual property rights, and trade-related investment measures - will affect South Asia in different ways. The impact on the movement of labor, in which the region has a comparative advantage, seems to be more effective than in other areas. More disciplined rules to protect intellectual property rights and more transparency about investment and competition policies will benefit the region in the longer run.","PeriodicalId":166412,"journal":{"name":"World Bank: International Economics (Topic)","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1995-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127001206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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