Experts are increasingly being called upon to quantify their knowledge, particularly in situations where data is not yet available or of limited relevance. In many cases this involves asking experts to estimate probabilities. For example experts, in ecology or related fields, might be called upon to estimate probabilities of incidence or abundance of species, and how they relate to environmental factors. Although many ecologists undergo some training in statistics at undergraduate and postgraduate levels, this does not necessarily focus on interpretations of probabilities. More accurate elicitation can be obtained by training experts prior to elicitation, and if necessary tailoring elicitation to address the expert’s strengths and weaknesses. Here we address the first step of diagnosing conceptual understanding of probabilities. We refer to the psychological literature which identifies several common biases or fallacies that arise during elicitation. These form the basis for developing a diagnostic questionnaire, as a tool for supporting accurate elicitation, particularly when several experts or elicitors are involved. We report on a qualitative assessment of results from a pilot of this questionnaire. These results raise several implications for training experts, not only prior to elicitation, but more strategically by targeting them whilst still undergraduate or postgraduate students.
{"title":"How do experts think about statistics? Hints for improving undergraduate and postgraduate training","authors":"S. L. Choy, T. Wilson","doi":"10.52041/srap.09403","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.52041/srap.09403","url":null,"abstract":"Experts are increasingly being called upon to quantify their knowledge, particularly in situations where data is not yet available or of limited relevance. In many cases this involves asking experts to estimate probabilities. For example experts, in ecology or related fields, might be called upon to estimate probabilities of incidence or abundance of species, and how they relate to environmental factors. Although many ecologists undergo some training in statistics at undergraduate and postgraduate levels, this does not necessarily focus on interpretations of probabilities. More accurate elicitation can be obtained by training experts prior to elicitation, and if necessary tailoring elicitation to address the expert’s strengths and weaknesses. Here we address the first step of diagnosing conceptual understanding of probabilities. We refer to the psychological literature which identifies several common biases or fallacies that arise during elicitation. These form the basis for developing a diagnostic questionnaire, as a tool for supporting accurate elicitation, particularly when several experts or elicitors are involved. We report on a qualitative assessment of results from a pilot of this questionnaire. These results raise several implications for training experts, not only prior to elicitation, but more strategically by targeting them whilst still undergraduate or postgraduate students.","PeriodicalId":170012,"journal":{"name":"Next Steps in Statistics Education Precedings IASE Satellite Conference","volume":"213 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114467923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Is the average age of a United States homeless person nine? No, as the majority of homeless are adults. Yet despite available facts, the claim persists. Evaluating sources related to this claim can form a strong exercise in statistical literacy at college and secondary school levels. This article details our experience in working with this social statistic. It includes background information on homelessness, design considerations, notes from using the exercise in college and high school, and a handout designed for high school use.
{"title":"The homeless average age 9? A curricular example","authors":"Adam Molnar, Jill Price","doi":"10.52041/srap.09804","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.52041/srap.09804","url":null,"abstract":"Is the average age of a United States homeless person nine? No, as the majority of homeless are adults. Yet despite available facts, the claim persists. Evaluating sources related to this claim can form a strong exercise in statistical literacy at college and secondary school levels. This article details our experience in working with this social statistic. It includes background information on homelessness, design considerations, notes from using the exercise in college and high school, and a handout designed for high school use.","PeriodicalId":170012,"journal":{"name":"Next Steps in Statistics Education Precedings IASE Satellite Conference","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117209827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Whilst great progress has been made in the field of statistics education, a remaining challenge is to maximise the efficiency and effectiveness of service teaching in order to create successful end- users of statistics and to raise the profile of statistics within the wider community. The Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Lancaster University has a successful record of service teaching to other departments within the University. The opening of its new Postgraduate Statistics Centre in 2008, and the associated resources for teaching innovation, has enabled this high quality teaching to now expand, with more service courses currently being developed in collaboration with the recipient departments. We have undertaken an evaluation of statistics service teaching within the landmark Lancaster Environment Centre at Lancaster University, which incorporates statistics users from the fields of Biology, Environmental Science and Geography. Collaborating with staff and students from those departments has enabled a thorough evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of the current course offered, and has allowed us to make several recommendations for creating a new tailored and effective service course. We have demonstrated that the most efficient and effective approach to service teaching involves close collaboration between all departments involved in order to benefit both those teaching and those learning.
{"title":"Next steps in Statistics Education: Successful Service Teaching","authors":"R. Allen, B. Abram, A. Folkard, G. Lancaster","doi":"10.52041/srap.09201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.52041/srap.09201","url":null,"abstract":"Whilst great progress has been made in the field of statistics education, a remaining challenge is to maximise the efficiency and effectiveness of service teaching in order to create successful end- users of statistics and to raise the profile of statistics within the wider community. The Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Lancaster University has a successful record of service teaching to other departments within the University. The opening of its new Postgraduate Statistics Centre in 2008, and the associated resources for teaching innovation, has enabled this high quality teaching to now expand, with more service courses currently being developed in collaboration with the recipient departments. We have undertaken an evaluation of statistics service teaching within the landmark Lancaster Environment Centre at Lancaster University, which incorporates statistics users from the fields of Biology, Environmental Science and Geography. Collaborating with staff and students from those departments has enabled a thorough evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of the current course offered, and has allowed us to make several recommendations for creating a new tailored and effective service course. We have demonstrated that the most efficient and effective approach to service teaching involves close collaboration between all departments involved in order to benefit both those teaching and those learning.","PeriodicalId":170012,"journal":{"name":"Next Steps in Statistics Education Precedings IASE Satellite Conference","volume":"2003 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127315840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Many large scientific and social scientific data sets—for example, those about climate and the environment, medicine, population or economic trends, the human genome, astronomy— are now widely available. As secondary students explore these data they investigate fascinating and important topics that can help them better participate as global citizens. However, understanding the meaning of these data requires statistical understandings—e.g., of variability amidst underlying aggregate trends, statistical control in complex relationships, the meaning of interaction effects, expectations about small probability events, statistical versus practical significance—that are difficult and rarely taught at the secondary level. This paper explores how interest in the science can motivate exploration of statistical ideas, at an informal if not rigorous technical level, which in turn can lead to a deeper understanding of scientific ideas. The role of data visualization and analysis tools to support this learning is also explored.
{"title":"Statistics education on the sly: exploring large scientific data sets as an entrée to statistical ideas in secondary schools","authors":"J. Hammerman","doi":"10.52041/srap.09802","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.52041/srap.09802","url":null,"abstract":"Many large scientific and social scientific data sets—for example, those about climate and the environment, medicine, population or economic trends, the human genome, astronomy— are now widely available. As secondary students explore these data they investigate fascinating and important topics that can help them better participate as global citizens. However, understanding the meaning of these data requires statistical understandings—e.g., of variability amidst underlying aggregate trends, statistical control in complex relationships, the meaning of interaction effects, expectations about small probability events, statistical versus practical significance—that are difficult and rarely taught at the secondary level. This paper explores how interest in the science can motivate exploration of statistical ideas, at an informal if not rigorous technical level, which in turn can lead to a deeper understanding of scientific ideas. The role of data visualization and analysis tools to support this learning is also explored.","PeriodicalId":170012,"journal":{"name":"Next Steps in Statistics Education Precedings IASE Satellite Conference","volume":"129 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122902235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Many statistical agencies are attempting to inform citizens about the state of society, and current social changes. The literature on statistical literacy suggests that this might be an uphill struggle. Here, we use a press release from Ireland’s Central Statistical Office to show how important social trends that are masked in the press release can be made easier to understand via the use of new technologies. We advocate the use of mash-ups as the default form for press releases, and provide an example on the use of alcohol by young people.
{"title":"The next great leap – from official data to public knowledge","authors":"J. Ridgway, J. Nicholson, S. McCusker","doi":"10.52041/srap.09402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.52041/srap.09402","url":null,"abstract":"Many statistical agencies are attempting to inform citizens about the state of society, and current social changes. The literature on statistical literacy suggests that this might be an uphill struggle. Here, we use a press release from Ireland’s Central Statistical Office to show how important social trends that are masked in the press release can be made easier to understand via the use of new technologies. We advocate the use of mash-ups as the default form for press releases, and provide an example on the use of alcohol by young people.","PeriodicalId":170012,"journal":{"name":"Next Steps in Statistics Education Precedings IASE Satellite Conference","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122638139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
OECD has launched its Global Project that aims to develop new measures of the nature and progress of societies and to increase the capability of citizens to understand and use this information. We contend that this needs to be accompanied by a developing programme at school level to equip the next generation to understand relationships in complex data. This paper looks at the current uses of data within the UK curriculum and identifies some barriers to change. We show examples of tasks which offer opportunities for students to work with real, relevant, complex data in ways which develop sought after generic employment skills,such as collaborative working, communication and integration of ICT skills. We believe that this research has important implications for the statistical literacy of both the next generation of citizens and the current adult population.
{"title":"One small step for a pupil - one giant leap for citizens","authors":"J. Nicholson, J. Ridgway","doi":"10.52041/srap.09401","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.52041/srap.09401","url":null,"abstract":"OECD has launched its Global Project that aims to develop new measures of the nature and progress of societies and to increase the capability of citizens to understand and use this information. We contend that this needs to be accompanied by a developing programme at school level to equip the next generation to understand relationships in complex data. This paper looks at the current uses of data within the UK curriculum and identifies some barriers to change. We show examples of tasks which offer opportunities for students to work with real, relevant, complex data in ways which develop sought after generic employment skills,such as collaborative working, communication and integration of ICT skills. We believe that this research has important implications for the statistical literacy of both the next generation of citizens and the current adult population.","PeriodicalId":170012,"journal":{"name":"Next Steps in Statistics Education Precedings IASE Satellite Conference","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128014528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The purpose of this paper is to explore to what extent knowledge and skills provided to students majoring in statistics satisfy the expectations of the work environment in policy research centers. A list of items reflecting statistics knowledge and statistical skills as well as soft skills required for researchers working in policy research centers was developed. Then, the list was integrated in a pre-coded questionnaire addressed to junior statisticians working in policy research centers and their managers to measure statisticians' exposure to different items. The results showed a need for improving content of statistical education and indicated a need to emphasize statistical thinking in the cognitive formation of statistics graduates. The dose of statistical methods usually offered in a standard statistics program seems to be adequate and can help statisticians to analyze problems in an evidence-based manner. In addition, the results suggested that statistical education focuses on theoretical concepts rather than their application in real-world issues. Despite the fact that computer skills of statistics graduates are satisfactory, there is a need to improve their ability in conducting statistical analysis using database software.
{"title":"What do statisticians working in policy research need from statistical education?","authors":"Mohamed Ismail, Magued I. Osman","doi":"10.52041/srap.09904","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.52041/srap.09904","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to explore to what extent knowledge and skills provided to students majoring in statistics satisfy the expectations of the work environment in policy research centers. A list of items reflecting statistics knowledge and statistical skills as well as soft skills required for researchers working in policy research centers was developed. Then, the list was integrated in a pre-coded questionnaire addressed to junior statisticians working in policy research centers and their managers to measure statisticians' exposure to different items. The results showed a need for improving content of statistical education and indicated a need to emphasize statistical thinking in the cognitive formation of statistics graduates. The dose of statistical methods usually offered in a standard statistics program seems to be adequate and can help statisticians to analyze problems in an evidence-based manner. In addition, the results suggested that statistical education focuses on theoretical concepts rather than their application in real-world issues. Despite the fact that computer skills of statistics graduates are satisfactory, there is a need to improve their ability in conducting statistical analysis using database software.","PeriodicalId":170012,"journal":{"name":"Next Steps in Statistics Education Precedings IASE Satellite Conference","volume":"71 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132874930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper discusses the process of designing and empirically testing measures of teachers’ technological pedagogical statistical knowledge (TPSK), addressing conference theme # 3 -- next steps in statistics education with respect to preparing teachers to implement new (usually, technology-rich) curricula. The authors conceptualize this knowledge in the broader context of technological pedagogical content knowledge and provide some specific examples of items applied to statistics. In creating measures to capture this complex construct, the authors drew upon literature of students’ (mis)conceptions, authentic teaching experiences, and alignment with statistical expectations for middle school teachers. Results from a pilot survey of middle school teachers suggest that some items have potential to uncover aspects of teachers’ (mis)con
{"title":"Towards measuring technological pedagogical content knowledge in statistics: middle school teachers using graphing calculators","authors":"M. A. Sorto, L. Lesser","doi":"10.52041/srap.09501","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.52041/srap.09501","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses the process of designing and empirically testing measures of teachers’ technological pedagogical statistical knowledge (TPSK), addressing conference theme # 3 -- next steps in statistics education with respect to preparing teachers to implement new (usually, technology-rich) curricula. The authors conceptualize this knowledge in the broader context of technological pedagogical content knowledge and provide some specific examples of items applied to statistics. In creating measures to capture this complex construct, the authors drew upon literature of students’ (mis)conceptions, authentic teaching experiences, and alignment with statistical expectations for middle school teachers. Results from a pilot survey of middle school teachers suggest that some items have potential to uncover aspects of teachers’ (mis)con","PeriodicalId":170012,"journal":{"name":"Next Steps in Statistics Education Precedings IASE Satellite Conference","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134434058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the UK there is a new National Curriculum where procedural techniques are given much lower prominence and subject content greatly reduced. There is greater emphasis on skills and processes that individuals can use in order make all young people successful learners, confident individuals and responsible citizens. I shall illustrate how this is an opportunity for statistical education to play a greater role both within mathematical education and also in cross curricula dimensions and important personal, learning and thinking skills. Within the mathematics curriculum the key processes have a great similarity to the Statistical Problem Solving Cycle and offer us the incentive to drive statistical education forward. I shall explore ideas and possibilities for ways to engage on the next steps forward. The paper may have a UK emphasis but the vast majority of ideas included are easily transferable to other countries and different school settings.
{"title":"Process Skills & Statistical Education","authors":"Doreen Connor","doi":"10.52041/srap.09701","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.52041/srap.09701","url":null,"abstract":"In the UK there is a new National Curriculum where procedural techniques are given much lower prominence and subject content greatly reduced. There is greater emphasis on skills and processes that individuals can use in order make all young people successful learners, confident individuals and responsible citizens. I shall illustrate how this is an opportunity for statistical education to play a greater role both within mathematical education and also in cross curricula dimensions and important personal, learning and thinking skills. Within the mathematics curriculum the key processes have a great similarity to the Statistical Problem Solving Cycle and offer us the incentive to drive statistical education forward. I shall explore ideas and possibilities for ways to engage on the next steps forward. The paper may have a UK emphasis but the vast majority of ideas included are easily transferable to other countries and different school settings.","PeriodicalId":170012,"journal":{"name":"Next Steps in Statistics Education Precedings IASE Satellite Conference","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128651980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Statistics New Zealand recently developed a pre-university Certificate of Official Statistics aimed at increasing the statistical literacy of government policy advisors. It has four compulsory statistics units taught by academics from several New Zealand universities together with Statistics New Zealand staff, and one optional unit. Student cohorts are kept small and both the learning and assessment is based on real statistical, research, policy and media publications. The assessment is competency based and students can re-sit questions until a satisfactory standard is achieved. The first cohort of students (enrolled in 2007) was used as a pilot and evaluated for the appropriateness of the learning, possible enhancements to assessment questions and the impact of their prior level of statistical knowledge, motivation and management support on the time taken to complete units. The results of this evaluation are given together with the resulting changes made to the Certificate.
{"title":"Creation and evaluation of a workplace based certificate in official statistics for government policy makers.","authors":"Sharleen Forbs","doi":"10.52041/srap.09902","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.52041/srap.09902","url":null,"abstract":"Statistics New Zealand recently developed a pre-university Certificate of Official Statistics aimed at increasing the statistical literacy of government policy advisors. It has four compulsory statistics units taught by academics from several New Zealand universities together with Statistics New Zealand staff, and one optional unit. Student cohorts are kept small and both the learning and assessment is based on real statistical, research, policy and media publications. The assessment is competency based and students can re-sit questions until a satisfactory standard is achieved. The first cohort of students (enrolled in 2007) was used as a pilot and evaluated for the appropriateness of the learning, possible enhancements to assessment questions and the impact of their prior level of statistical knowledge, motivation and management support on the time taken to complete units. The results of this evaluation are given together with the resulting changes made to the Certificate.","PeriodicalId":170012,"journal":{"name":"Next Steps in Statistics Education Precedings IASE Satellite Conference","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128697162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：