This paper shows that international labor mobility attenuates information frictions, and leads to higher-quality products, more trade, and more effective global value chains. Exploiting the variation in the time and intensity at which Swiss postal codes were hit by the increasing availability of foreign workers due to the implementation of the Swiss-EU Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons, I find that the inflow of high-skilled European workers led to an upgrade in the quality of inputs imported from their origin countries. Better intermediates improved the quality of output, making Swiss products more appealing for international markets and boosting exports. Therefore, the efficacy of Swiss global value chains improved: upstream thanks to higher-quality intermediate inputs brought by the intensification of the existing buyer-seller relations; and downstream because higher-quality products eased increasing exports to existing buyers and helped finding new customers, especially in distant destinations.
{"title":"Foreign Workers, Product Quality, and Trade: Evidence from a Natural Experiment","authors":"A. Ariu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.4041114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4041114","url":null,"abstract":"This paper shows that international labor mobility attenuates information frictions, and leads to higher-quality products, more trade, and more effective global value chains. Exploiting the variation in the time and intensity at which Swiss postal codes were hit by the increasing availability of foreign workers due to the implementation of the Swiss-EU Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons, I find that the inflow of high-skilled European workers led to an upgrade in the quality of inputs imported from their origin countries. Better intermediates improved the quality of output, making Swiss products more appealing for international markets and boosting exports. Therefore, the efficacy of Swiss global value chains improved: upstream thanks to higher-quality intermediate inputs brought by the intensification of the existing buyer-seller relations; and downstream because higher-quality products eased increasing exports to existing buyers and helped finding new customers, especially in distant destinations.","PeriodicalId":170106,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Trade & Regional Economics (Topic)","volume":"87 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128618860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
What are the short-term effects of an import-competition shock on capital reallocation and aggregate productivity? To address this question, we develop a quantitative model with heterogeneous firms and capital-reallocation frictions. We discipline the model with micro data on investment dynamics of Peruvian manufacturing firms and trade flows between China and Peru. Because of large frictions in firm downsizing and exit, an import-competition shock induces a temporary aggregate-productivity loss and larger dispersion in marginal products, due to investment inaction and exit of some productive firms. Empirical evidence on the effects of trade shocks on capital reallocation supports the model mechanism. (JEL E22, E23, F14, L60, O14, O16, O19)
{"title":"Capital-Reallocation Frictions and Trade Shocks","authors":"Andrea Lanteri, Pamela Medina, E. Tan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3473365","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3473365","url":null,"abstract":"What are the short-term effects of an import-competition shock on capital reallocation and aggregate productivity? To address this question, we develop a quantitative model with heterogeneous firms and capital-reallocation frictions. We discipline the model with micro data on investment dynamics of Peruvian manufacturing firms and trade flows between China and Peru. Because of large frictions in firm downsizing and exit, an import-competition shock induces a temporary aggregate-productivity loss and larger dispersion in marginal products, due to investment inaction and exit of some productive firms. Empirical evidence on the effects of trade shocks on capital reallocation supports the model mechanism. (JEL E22, E23, F14, L60, O14, O16, O19)","PeriodicalId":170106,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Trade & Regional Economics (Topic)","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131718111","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Matteo Fiorini, B. Hoekman, P. Mavroidis, Maarja Saluste, Robert Wolfe
The WTO dispute settlement system is in crisis, following the decision of the United States to block new appointments to the Appellate Body (AB). The AB went into hibernation in December 2019, not having enough sitting members to be able to operate. What do WTO members think of the performance of WTO dispute settlement? How much do WTO members care about the existence and operation of an appeals mechanism? In this paper, we report on the results of a survey of WTO Members' perceptions of the AB and the role it plays (should play). We complement this with data on Members' revealed preferences in their use of the dispute settlement system, their intervention in WTO debates on the AB crisis and their responses to demise of the AB. The data reveal strong support for the basic design of the dispute settlement system but also that the United States is not alone in perceiving that the AB went beyond its mandate. There are substantive questions that need to be addressed if the Appellate Body impasse is to be resolved.
{"title":"WTO Dispute Settlement and the Appellate Body: Insider Perceptions and Members' Revealed Preferences","authors":"Matteo Fiorini, B. Hoekman, P. Mavroidis, Maarja Saluste, Robert Wolfe","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3827215","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3827215","url":null,"abstract":"The WTO dispute settlement system is in crisis, following the decision of the United States to block new appointments to the Appellate Body (AB). The AB went into hibernation in December 2019, not having enough sitting members to be able to operate. What do WTO members think of the performance of WTO dispute settlement? How much do WTO members care about the existence and operation of an appeals mechanism? In this paper, we report on the results of a survey of WTO Members' perceptions of the AB and the role it plays (should play). We complement this with data on Members' revealed preferences in their use of the dispute settlement system, their intervention in WTO debates on the AB crisis and their responses to demise of the AB. The data reveal strong support for the basic design of the dispute settlement system but also that the United States is not alone in perceiving that the AB went beyond its mandate. There are substantive questions that need to be addressed if the Appellate Body impasse is to be resolved.","PeriodicalId":170106,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Trade & Regional Economics (Topic)","volume":"71 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125190484","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Geo-economic tensions, notably associated with the rise of China, and global collective action problems â?? climate change; the COVID-19 pandemic â?? call for international cooperation to revise and develop rules to guide both the use of domestic subsidies and responses by governments to cross-border competition spillover effects. Current WTO rules dividing all subsidies into prohibited or actionable categories are no longer fit for purpose. Piecemeal efforts in preferential trade agreements and bi- or trilateral configurations offer a basis on which to build but are too narrow in scope. Addressing spillover effects of subsidies could start with G20 countries launching a work program to mobilize an epistemic community concerned with subsidy policies, tasked with building a more solid evidence base on the magnitude, purpose and effects of subsidy policies. The need for such cooperation has become even more pressing by the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated increase in the use of subsidy programs in major economies.
{"title":"Rethinking International Subsidy Rules","authors":"Bernard Hoekman, D. Nelson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3630870","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3630870","url":null,"abstract":"Geo-economic tensions, notably associated with the rise of China, and global collective action problems â?? climate change; the COVID-19 pandemic â?? call for international cooperation to revise and develop rules to guide both the use of domestic subsidies and responses by governments to cross-border competition spillover effects. Current WTO rules dividing all subsidies into prohibited or actionable categories are no longer fit for purpose. Piecemeal efforts in preferential trade agreements and bi- or trilateral configurations offer a basis on which to build but are too narrow in scope. Addressing spillover effects of subsidies could start with G20 countries launching a work program to mobilize an epistemic community concerned with subsidy policies, tasked with building a more solid evidence base on the magnitude, purpose and effects of subsidy policies. The need for such cooperation has become even more pressing by the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated increase in the use of subsidy programs in major economies.","PeriodicalId":170106,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Trade & Regional Economics (Topic)","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121577688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the relationship between regulatory policies governing public procurement and participation by small and medium enterprises (SMEs), using a large dataset on European procurement. We find that countries with better quality procurement regulation have greater SME participation and higher probability that SMEs win contracts. Dividing contracts into smaller lots bolsters participation by SMEs, but only increases the probability of SMEs winning contracts for small value lots (â?¬25,000 or less). Counterfactual simulations suggest if governments want to enhance participation by SMEs in public procurement the focus should be on improving the overall quality of procurement processes.
{"title":"SME Participation in Public Purchasing: Procurement Policy Matters","authors":"B. Hoekman, B. Tas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3688354","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3688354","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the relationship between regulatory policies governing public procurement and participation by small and medium enterprises (SMEs), using a large dataset on European procurement. We find that countries with better quality procurement regulation have greater SME participation and higher probability that SMEs win contracts. Dividing contracts into smaller lots bolsters participation by SMEs, but only increases the probability of SMEs winning contracts for small value lots (â?¬25,000 or less). Counterfactual simulations suggest if governments want to enhance participation by SMEs in public procurement the focus should be on improving the overall quality of procurement processes.","PeriodicalId":170106,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Trade & Regional Economics (Topic)","volume":"104 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124808544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Alessandra Bonfiglioli, Rosario Crinó, Harald Fadinger, G. Gancia
We use French data over the 1994-2013 period to study how imports of industrial robots affect firm-level outcomes. Compared to other firms operating in the same 5-digit sector, robot importers are larger, more productive, and employ a higher share of managers and engineers. Over time, robot import occurs after periods of expansion in firm size, and is followed by improvements in efficiency and a fall in demand for labor. Guided by a simple model, we develop various empirical strategies to identify the causal effects of robot adoption. Our results suggest that, while demand shocks generate a positive correlation between robot imports and employment, exogenous changes in automation lead to job losses. We also find that robot imports increase productivity and the employment share of high-skill professions, but have a weak effect on total sales. The latter result suggests that productivity gains from automation may not be entirely passed on to consumers in the form of lower prices.
{"title":"Robot Imports and Firm-Level Outcomes","authors":"Alessandra Bonfiglioli, Rosario Crinó, Harald Fadinger, G. Gancia","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3744604","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3744604","url":null,"abstract":"We use French data over the 1994-2013 period to study how imports of industrial robots affect firm-level outcomes. Compared to other firms operating in the same 5-digit sector, robot importers are larger, more productive, and employ a higher share of managers and engineers. Over time, robot import occurs after periods of expansion in firm size, and is followed by improvements in efficiency and a fall in demand for labor. Guided by a simple model, we develop various empirical strategies to identify the causal effects of robot adoption. Our results suggest that, while demand shocks generate a positive correlation between robot imports and employment, exogenous changes in automation lead to job losses. We also find that robot imports increase productivity and the employment share of high-skill professions, but have a weak effect on total sales. The latter result suggests that productivity gains from automation may not be entirely passed on to consumers in the form of lower prices.","PeriodicalId":170106,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Trade & Regional Economics (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121392950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I measure the economic effects of greenbelts that prohibit new construction beyond a predefined urban fringe and therefore act as urban growth boundaries. I focus on England, where $13%$ of the land is designated as greenbelt land. I provide reduced-form evidence and estimate a quantitative equilibrium model that includes amenities, housing supply, a traffic congestion externality, agglomeration forces, productivity, and household location choices. Greenbelt policy generates positive amenity effects, but also strongly reduces housing supply. I find that greenbelts increase welfare because amenity effects are sufficiently strong. At the same time, however, greenbelts decrease housing affordability by limiting housing supply.
{"title":"The Welfare Effects of Greenbelt Policy: Evidence from England","authors":"H. Koster","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3358806","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3358806","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 I measure the economic effects of greenbelts that prohibit new construction beyond a predefined urban fringe and therefore act as urban growth boundaries. I focus on England, where $13%$ of the land is designated as greenbelt land. I provide reduced-form evidence and estimate a quantitative equilibrium model that includes amenities, housing supply, a traffic congestion externality, agglomeration forces, productivity, and household location choices. Greenbelt policy generates positive amenity effects, but also strongly reduces housing supply. I find that greenbelts increase welfare because amenity effects are sufficiently strong. At the same time, however, greenbelts decrease housing affordability by limiting housing supply.","PeriodicalId":170106,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Trade & Regional Economics (Topic)","volume":"118 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122089895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
International investment agreements have provoked intense criticism in the policy debate during recent years. Particularly contentious has been their “ISDS” mechanisms, which enable investors to bring disputes against host countries. This paper examines whether host countries would be better off with state-state dispute settlement (SSDS), as often alleged, assuming that SSDS cause political/diplomatic arbitration costs that are not present with ISDS. Two separate reasons why host countries might benefit from SSDS are identified, but neither provides a convincing argument for host countries to move to SSDS. The paper concludes that host countries should reduce the stringency of their agreements, rather than introduce imperfections in the dispute settlement systems to reduce their bite.
{"title":"Investor-State vs. State-State Dispute Settlement","authors":"Henrik Horn, Thomas P. Tangerås","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3285102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3285102","url":null,"abstract":"International investment agreements have provoked intense criticism in the policy debate during recent years. Particularly contentious has been their “ISDS” mechanisms, which enable investors to bring disputes against host countries. This paper examines whether host countries would be better off with state-state dispute settlement (SSDS), as often alleged, assuming that SSDS cause political/diplomatic arbitration costs that are not present with ISDS. Two separate reasons why host countries might benefit from SSDS are identified, but neither provides a convincing argument for host countries to move to SSDS. The paper concludes that host countries should reduce the stringency of their agreements, rather than introduce imperfections in the dispute settlement systems to reduce their bite.","PeriodicalId":170106,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Trade & Regional Economics (Topic)","volume":"71 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115025249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We document that international migrants concentrate more in expensive cities—the more so, the lower the prices in their origin countries are—and consume less locally than comparable natives. We rationalize this empirical evidence by introducing a quantitative spatial equilibrium model, in which a part of immigrants’ income goes toward consumption in their origin countries. Using counter-factual simulations, we show that, due to this novel consumption channel, immigrants move economic activity toward expensive, high-productivity locations. This leads to a more efficient spatial allocation of labor and, as a result, increases the aggregate output and welfare of natives. (JEL F24, J15, J31, J61, R23)
{"title":"Immigration and Spatial Equilibrium: The Role of Expenditures in the Country of Origin","authors":"Christoph Albert, Joan Monras","doi":"10.1257/aer.20211241","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20211241","url":null,"abstract":"We document that international migrants concentrate more in expensive cities—the more so, the lower the prices in their origin countries are—and consume less locally than comparable natives. We rationalize this empirical evidence by introducing a quantitative spatial equilibrium model, in which a part of immigrants’ income goes toward consumption in their origin countries. Using counter-factual simulations, we show that, due to this novel consumption channel, immigrants move economic activity toward expensive, high-productivity locations. This leads to a more efficient spatial allocation of labor and, as a result, increases the aggregate output and welfare of natives. (JEL F24, J15, J31, J61, R23)","PeriodicalId":170106,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Trade & Regional Economics (Topic)","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128079964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Institutions persisting from colonial rule affect the spatial structure and conditions under which 100s of millions of people live in Sub-saharan African cities. In a sample of 318 cities, Francophone cities have more compact development than Anglophone, overall, in older colonial sections, and at clear extensive margins long after the colonial era. Compactness covers intensity of land use, gridiron road structures and leapfrogging of new developments. Why the difference? Under British indirect and dual mandate rule, colonial and native sections developed without coordination. In contrast, integrated city planning and land allocation were featured in French direct rule. These differences in planning traditions persist.1
{"title":"Colonial Legacies: Shaping African Cities","authors":"Neeraj Baruah, J. Henderson, Cong Peng","doi":"10.1093/jeg/lbaa026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbaa026","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Institutions persisting from colonial rule affect the spatial structure and conditions under which 100s of millions of people live in Sub-saharan African cities. In a sample of 318 cities, Francophone cities have more compact development than Anglophone, overall, in older colonial sections, and at clear extensive margins long after the colonial era. Compactness covers intensity of land use, gridiron road structures and leapfrogging of new developments. Why the difference? Under British indirect and dual mandate rule, colonial and native sections developed without coordination. In contrast, integrated city planning and land allocation were featured in French direct rule. These differences in planning traditions persist.1","PeriodicalId":170106,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Trade & Regional Economics (Topic)","volume":"64 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126875795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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