Pub Date : 2022-03-23DOI: 10.30875/25189808-2022-9
Carlos G'oes, E. Bekkers
Geopolitical conflicts have increasingly been a driver of trade policy. We study the potential effects of global and persistent geopolitical conflicts on trade, technological innovation, and economic growth. In conventional trade models the welfare costs of such conflicts are modest. We build a multi-sector multi-region general equilibrium model with dynamic sector-specific knowledge diffusion, which magnifies welfare losses of trade conflicts. Idea diffusion is mediated by the input-output structure of production, such that both sector cost shares and import trade shares characterize the source distribution of ideas. Using this framework, we explore the potential impact of a"decoupling of the global economy,"a hypothetical scenario under which technology systems would diverge in the global economy. We divide the global economy into two geopolitical blocs -- East and West -- based on foreign policy similarity and model decoupling through an increase in iceberg trade costs (full decoupling) or tariffs (tariff decoupling). Results yield three main insights. First, the projected welfare losses for the global economy of a decoupling scenario can be drastic, as large as 15% in some regions and are largest in the lower income regions as they would benefit less from technology spillovers from richer areas. Second, the described size and pattern of welfare effects are specific to the model with diffusion of ideas. Without diffusion of ideas the size and variation across regions of the welfare losses would be substantially smaller. Third, a multi-sector framework exacerbates diffusion inefficiencies induced by trade costs relative to a single-sector one.
{"title":"The Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Trade, Growth, and Innovation","authors":"Carlos G'oes, E. Bekkers","doi":"10.30875/25189808-2022-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30875/25189808-2022-9","url":null,"abstract":"Geopolitical conflicts have increasingly been a driver of trade policy. We study the potential effects of global and persistent geopolitical conflicts on trade, technological innovation, and economic growth. In conventional trade models the welfare costs of such conflicts are modest. We build a multi-sector multi-region general equilibrium model with dynamic sector-specific knowledge diffusion, which magnifies welfare losses of trade conflicts. Idea diffusion is mediated by the input-output structure of production, such that both sector cost shares and import trade shares characterize the source distribution of ideas. Using this framework, we explore the potential impact of a\"decoupling of the global economy,\"a hypothetical scenario under which technology systems would diverge in the global economy. We divide the global economy into two geopolitical blocs -- East and West -- based on foreign policy similarity and model decoupling through an increase in iceberg trade costs (full decoupling) or tariffs (tariff decoupling). Results yield three main insights. First, the projected welfare losses for the global economy of a decoupling scenario can be drastic, as large as 15% in some regions and are largest in the lower income regions as they would benefit less from technology spillovers from richer areas. Second, the described size and pattern of welfare effects are specific to the model with diffusion of ideas. Without diffusion of ideas the size and variation across regions of the welfare losses would be substantially smaller. Third, a multi-sector framework exacerbates diffusion inefficiencies induced by trade costs relative to a single-sector one.","PeriodicalId":178903,"journal":{"name":"WTO Working Papers","volume":"87 29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130349514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-03-14DOI: 10.30875/25189808-2022-7
{"title":"B2B E-commerce marketplaces and MSMES","authors":"","doi":"10.30875/25189808-2022-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30875/25189808-2022-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":178903,"journal":{"name":"WTO Working Papers","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130979657","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-02-28DOI: 10.30875/25189808-2022-5
{"title":"The impact of LDC graduation on trade","authors":"","doi":"10.30875/25189808-2022-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30875/25189808-2022-5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":178903,"journal":{"name":"WTO Working Papers","volume":"136 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114233467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-02-10DOI: 10.30875/25189808-2022-1
T. Chiang, Xiaoping Wu
This working paper provides a statistical analysis of 74 patent families which cover subject matter relevant to ten COVID-19 vaccines. These vaccines have accounted for 99% of the global COVID-19 vaccine production as of 31 December 2021, comprising over ten billion doses. Eight of them, namely BNT162b2 (Pfizer/BioNTech), AZD1222 (AstraZeneca/Oxford), Ad26.COV2-S (J&J), mRNA1273 (Moderna), BBIBP-CorV (Sinopharm/Beijing), Coronavac (Sinovac), Covaxin (Bharat/ICMR), and NVX-CoV2373 (Novavax), have been approved by the World Health Organization (WHO) for inclusion in its Emergency Use Listing (EUL). The analysis is based on VaxPaL, a COVID-19 vaccines patent database developed by the Medicines Patent Pool (MPP). Through the detailed examination of patent applicants, filing dates, and offices of first and subsequent filing, the paper identifies patterns and trends of innovation and patenting activities of COVID-19 vaccines in WTO Members, and presents the legal status of the 74 patent families in 105 jurisdictions. This information may provide useful background for policymakers on the significance and potential impact of these patent families with relevance to the access to and production of these vaccines in their individual countries. This, in turn, may help support practical assessments as to potential options within and beyond the current TRIPS framework to promote equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines.
{"title":"Innovation and patenting activities of COVID-19 vaccines in WTO members","authors":"T. Chiang, Xiaoping Wu","doi":"10.30875/25189808-2022-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30875/25189808-2022-1","url":null,"abstract":"This working paper provides a statistical analysis of 74 patent families which cover subject matter relevant to ten COVID-19 vaccines. These vaccines have accounted for 99% of the global COVID-19 vaccine production as of 31 December 2021, comprising over ten billion doses. Eight of them, namely BNT162b2 (Pfizer/BioNTech), AZD1222 (AstraZeneca/Oxford), Ad26.COV2-S (J&J), mRNA1273 (Moderna), BBIBP-CorV (Sinopharm/Beijing), Coronavac (Sinovac), Covaxin (Bharat/ICMR), and NVX-CoV2373 (Novavax), have been approved by the World Health Organization (WHO) for inclusion in its Emergency Use Listing (EUL). The analysis is based on VaxPaL, a COVID-19 vaccines patent database developed by the Medicines Patent Pool (MPP). Through the detailed examination of patent applicants, filing dates, and offices of first and subsequent filing, the paper identifies patterns and trends of innovation and patenting activities of COVID-19 vaccines in WTO Members, and presents the legal status of the 74 patent families in 105 jurisdictions. This information may provide useful background for policymakers on the significance and potential impact of these patent families with relevance to the access to and production of these vaccines in their individual countries. This, in turn, may help support practical assessments as to potential options within and beyond the current TRIPS framework to promote equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines.","PeriodicalId":178903,"journal":{"name":"WTO Working Papers","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126418760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-18DOI: 10.30875/25189808-2022-3
{"title":"How do environmental policies affect green innovation and trade?","authors":"","doi":"10.30875/25189808-2022-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30875/25189808-2022-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":178903,"journal":{"name":"WTO Working Papers","volume":"95 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127986695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Regional Trade agreements (RTAs) are sometimes considered as laboratories in which new types of provisions are negotiated to address recent trade-related issues. Although the inclusion of gender-related provisions in RTAs is not a recent phenomenon, only a limited but increasing number of RTAs refer explicitly to gender-related issues. These gender-related provisions are highly heterogeneous and differ in terms of location in the RTA, language, scope and commitments. Some of the most detailed gender-related provisions are found in stand-alone chapters on gender. Cooperation provisions on gender-related issues, including labour, health and social policy, remain the most common type of gender-related provisions found in RTAs. The remaining types of genderrelated provisions, included in a relatively limited number of RTAs, cover different issues, including upholding domestic gender-policies, implementing international gender-related agreements and instruments, and establishing institutional arrangements to oversee the implementation of the gender-related provisions and resolve issues through consultations. The first Global Trade and Gender Arrangement (GTGA), negotiated by Canada, Chile and New Zealand in 2020, builds on many of the gender-related provisions found in RTAs but sets out also new types of gender-related provisions, such as the principle not to weak or reduce the protection provided in gender equality laws and regulations to promote trade or investment.
{"title":"The Evolution of Gender-Related Provisions in Regional Trade Agreements","authors":"José-Antonio Monteiro","doi":"10.30875/dd10a280-en","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30875/dd10a280-en","url":null,"abstract":"Regional Trade agreements (RTAs) are sometimes considered as laboratories in which new types of provisions are negotiated to address recent trade-related issues. Although the inclusion of gender-related provisions in RTAs is not a recent phenomenon, only a limited but increasing number of RTAs refer explicitly to gender-related issues. These gender-related provisions are highly heterogeneous and differ in terms of location in the RTA, language, scope and commitments. Some of the most detailed gender-related provisions are found in stand-alone chapters on gender. Cooperation provisions on gender-related issues, including labour, health and social policy, remain the most common type of gender-related provisions found in RTAs. The remaining types of genderrelated provisions, included in a relatively limited number of RTAs, cover different issues, including upholding domestic gender-policies, implementing international gender-related agreements and instruments, and establishing institutional arrangements to oversee the implementation of the gender-related provisions and resolve issues through consultations. The first Global Trade and Gender Arrangement (GTGA), negotiated by Canada, Chile and New Zealand in 2020, builds on many of the gender-related provisions found in RTAs but sets out also new types of gender-related provisions, such as the principle not to weak or reduce the protection provided in gender equality laws and regulations to promote trade or investment.","PeriodicalId":178903,"journal":{"name":"WTO Working Papers","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123654732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Bacchetta, E. Bekkers, R. Piermartini, S. Rubínová, Victor Stolzenburg, Ankai Xu
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a discussion among researchers and policy makers about changes to global value chains, both about expected changes and changes that should be promoted by government policies. In this paper we conduct an in-depth analysis of the reasons for changes in global value chains as a result of COVID-19 both from a positive angle, analysing expected changes in the behaviour of firms, and from a normative angle, assessing the different arguments for policy interventions by governments. After this analysis international cooperation of trade policies and the role of WTO in crises like the COVID -19 pandemic is explored. The analysis generates three main conclusions. First, the COVID-19 pandemic could contribute to diversification of sources of supply whose extent will vary by sector depending on the costs of value chain reorganization. The pandemic, by contrast, is not likely to contribute much to re-shoring, the return of manufacturing activities to industrialized countries, which is more likely to be driven by pre-existing trends such as rising factor costs in emerging countries, increasing uncertainty about trade policy, and robotization and automation of production. Second, the pandemic has led to increased attention to the provision of essential goods in situations of crisis and our analysis concludes that to achieve this objective, global cooperation should be preferred to national policies such as domestic production and export restrictions. Third, the largest risk for the global economy in the aftermath of the pandemic is a move away from open, non-discriminatory trade policies, which would jeopardize the large benefits of open trade regimes in the current global economy characterized by scale economies, innovation spillovers, and a global division of labour.
{"title":"COVID-19 and Global Value Chains","authors":"M. Bacchetta, E. Bekkers, R. Piermartini, S. Rubínová, Victor Stolzenburg, Ankai Xu","doi":"10.30875/40db0106-en","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30875/40db0106-en","url":null,"abstract":"Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a discussion among researchers and policy makers about changes to global value chains, both about expected changes and changes that should be promoted by government policies. In this paper we conduct an in-depth analysis of the reasons for changes in global value chains as a result of COVID-19 both from a positive angle, analysing expected changes in the behaviour of firms, and from a normative angle, assessing the different arguments for policy interventions by governments. After this analysis international cooperation of trade policies and the role of WTO in crises like the COVID -19 pandemic is explored. The analysis generates three main conclusions. First, the COVID-19 pandemic could contribute to diversification of sources of supply whose extent will vary by sector depending on the costs of value chain reorganization. The pandemic, by contrast, is not likely to contribute much to re-shoring, the return of manufacturing activities to industrialized countries, which is more likely to be driven by pre-existing trends such as rising factor costs in emerging countries, increasing uncertainty about trade policy, and robotization and automation of production. Second, the pandemic has led to increased attention to the provision of essential goods in situations of crisis and our analysis concludes that to achieve this objective, global cooperation should be preferred to national policies such as domestic production and export restrictions. Third, the largest risk for the global economy in the aftermath of the pandemic is a move away from open, non-discriminatory trade policies, which would jeopardize the large benefits of open trade regimes in the current global economy characterized by scale economies, innovation spillovers, and a global division of labour.","PeriodicalId":178903,"journal":{"name":"WTO Working Papers","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123677024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the WTO, this paper re-estimates the impact of WTO accession on growth. Joining the multilateral trading system not only expands access to international markets but also requires commitment to domestic reforms. Tang and Wei (2009) showed that there is in fact a positive effect of WTO on growth also during the period of accession when these commitments are undertaken. In this paper, we extend Tang and Wei's analysis to the sample of 32 newly acceded countries. We find that WTO accession is associated with a significant positive increase in GDP growth. This effect is larger than previously estimated. We find that five years after accession an economy is 30% larger, and that the impact of WTO entry on growth persists beyond the first five years.
{"title":"WTO Accession and Growth: Tang and Wei Redux","authors":"A. Brotto, A. Jakubik, R. Piermartini","doi":"10.30875/288958f2-en","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30875/288958f2-en","url":null,"abstract":"On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the WTO, this paper re-estimates the impact of WTO accession on growth. Joining the multilateral trading system not only expands access to international markets but also requires commitment to domestic reforms. Tang and Wei (2009) showed that there is in fact a positive effect of WTO on growth also during the period of accession when these commitments are undertaken. In this paper, we extend Tang and Wei's analysis to the sample of 32 newly acceded countries. We find that WTO accession is associated with a significant positive increase in GDP growth. This effect is larger than previously estimated. We find that five years after accession an economy is 30% larger, and that the impact of WTO entry on growth persists beyond the first five years.","PeriodicalId":178903,"journal":{"name":"WTO Working Papers","volume":"161 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124505033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The value of the Committee on Agriculture","authors":"","doi":"10.30875/46ba7a21-en","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30875/46ba7a21-en","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":178903,"journal":{"name":"WTO Working Papers","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115417441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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