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Distance, Formal and Informal Institutions in International Trade 国际贸易中的距离、正式和非正式制度
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.30875/a3af8f03-en
Rainer Lanz, Woori Lee, Victor Stolzenburg
This paper brings together three strands of literature on the determinants of international trade − distance, formal, and informal institutions − to explain differences in export performance across countries. Using an augmented gravity model, we find that the importance of formal institutions (rule of law) for bilateral trade increases with distance. Similarly, the pro-trade effect of informal institutions (migrant networks) is larger for distant countries. After confirming that informal institutions can substitute for weak formal institutions in promoting trade, we finally show that this substitution effect does not decrease with distance. Our findings contribute to explaining the persistent negative effect of distance on the export performance of many developing countries despite reductions in trade costs, and provide guidance to policy makers in terms of trade reform, regional trade liberalization and export promotions strategies.
本文汇集了关于国际贸易决定因素的三股文献——距离、正式制度和非正式制度——以解释各国出口绩效的差异。利用增强引力模型,我们发现正式制度(法治)对双边贸易的重要性随着距离的增加而增加。同样,非正式机构(移民网络)对遥远国家的贸易促进作用更大。在证实了非正式制度可以替代弱的正式制度促进贸易之后,我们最终证明了这种替代效应并不随着距离的增加而减少。我们的研究结果有助于解释尽管贸易成本降低,但距离对许多发展中国家出口绩效的持续负面影响,并在贸易改革、区域贸易自由化和出口促进战略方面为政策制定者提供指导。
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引用次数: 1
Intellectual Property and Digital Trade Mapping International Regulatory Responses to Emerging Issues 知识产权和数字贸易:对新出现问题的国际监管反应
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.30875/38c801bc-en
Wolf R. Meier-Ewert, J. Gutiérrez
This paper explores how regulatory responses to emerging IP issues in digital trade may develop at the international level and in particular how existing mechanisms might influence the chances of developing internationally agreed rules in this regard. The primacy of state sovereignty in intellectual property up to the late 19th century gave way to the important WIPO treaties, which still retained some independence of member states and based international regulatory responses directly on national experience. While more regulatory sovereignty was ceded in TRIPS, the WIPO Copyright Treaty and the WIPO Performances and Phonograms Treaty, the adoption of non-binding instruments (such as the WIPO Joint Recommendations in the area of trademarks) show the limits of decision making by consensus. International non-state solutions such as the Uniform DomainName Dispute-Resolution Policy (UDRP) established by the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) have introduced separate, technically determined solutions to specific IP issues. Proliferating free-trade agreements (FTAs) have emerged as a new platform to agree to IPrelated regulatory responses that can be used to project the national solutions of a few dominant FTA-partners. However, these FTAs have also served to give legally binding status to internationally agreed non-binding recommendations. These diverse approaches are apparent in recent IPregulatory responses to emerging digital issues that are particularly relevant for digital business models, including inter alia Internet service provider (ISP) liability, "safe harbour" provisions and the issue of orphan works, where there appears to be less agreement. Still further behind to reaching any kind of agreement are the emerging issues of online exhaustion, data mining and IP-related questions of artificial intelligence.
本文探讨了如何在国际层面上对数字贸易中新出现的知识产权问题作出监管反应,特别是现有机制如何影响在这方面制定国际商定规则的机会。直到19世纪后期,国家主权在知识产权方面的首要地位被重要的WIPO条约所取代,这些条约仍然保留了成员国的一些独立性,并将国际监管反应直接基于国家经验。虽然在《与贸易有关的知识产权条约》、《世界知识产权组织版权条约》和《世界知识产权组织表演和录音制品条约》中让渡了更多的监管主权,但采用不具约束力的文书(如世界知识产权组织关于商标领域的联合建议)显示了协商一致决策的局限性。国际非国家解决方案,如互联网名称与数字地址分配机构(ICANN)制定的统一域名争议解决政策(UDRP),为特定的IP问题引入了独立的、技术上确定的解决方案。不断扩大的自由贸易协定(FTAs)已经成为一个新的平台,可以同意相关的监管反应,这些反应可以用来规划少数占主导地位的自由贸易协定伙伴的国家解决方案。然而,这些自由贸易协定也使国际上商定的不具约束力的建议具有法律约束力。这些不同的方法在最近对新兴数字问题的监管反应中很明显,这些问题与数字商业模式特别相关,包括互联网服务提供商(ISP)责任、“安全港”条款和孤儿作品问题,在这些问题上似乎没有达成一致意见。在达成任何协议之前,还有一些新出现的问题,如网络资源枯竭、数据挖掘和人工智能的知识产权相关问题。
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引用次数: 0
The welfare effects of trade policy experiments in quantitative trade models 定量贸易模型中贸易政策实验的福利效应
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.30875/bdb5e37d-en
E. Bekkers
This paper compares the solution methods and baseline calibration of three different quantitative trade models (QTMs): computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, structural gravity (SG) models and models employing exact hat algebra (EHA). The different solution methods generate identical results on counterfactual experiments if baseline trade shares or baseline trade costs are identical. SG models, calibrating the baseline to gravity-predicted shares, potentially suffer from bias in the predicted welfare effects as a result of misspecification of the gravity equation, whereas the other methods, calibrating to actual shares, potentially suffer from bias as a result of random variation and measurement error of trade flows. Simulations show that predicted shares calibration can generate large biases in predicted welfare effects if the gravity equation does not contain pairwise fixed effects or is estimated without domestic trade flows. Calibration to actual shares and to fitted shares based on gravity estimation including pairwise fixed effects display similar performance in terms of robustness to the different sources of bias.
本文比较了可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)、结构重力模型(SG)和精确帽代数模型(EHA)三种不同定量贸易模型(QTMs)的求解方法和基线标定。如果基线交易份额或基线交易成本相同,则不同的解决方法在反事实实验中产生相同的结果。SG模型将基线校准为重力预测份额,由于重力方程的错误说明,可能会在预测福利效应方面存在偏差,而其他方法,校准为实际份额,可能会由于贸易流量的随机变化和测量误差而存在偏差。模拟结果表明,如果重力方程不包含两两固定效应,或者在没有国内贸易流量的情况下进行估计,预测份额校准会对预测福利效应产生很大的偏差。基于包括两两固定效应的重力估计对实际份额和拟合份额的校准在对不同偏差源的稳健性方面显示出相似的性能。
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引用次数: 4
Africa’s Integration in the WTO Multilateral Trading System 非洲融入世界贸易组织多边贸易体制
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.30875/5717be76-en
M. Smeets
The Marrakesh Agreement establishing the WTO recognizes the need for positive efforts designed to ensure that developing countries and especially the least developed among them secure a share in the growth in international trade commensurate with the needs of their economic development.This article discusses how the WTO contributes to facilitating Africa's integration into the WTO multilateral trading system. It is argued that, while African countries are actively engaged in the work of the WTO, securing their economic and policy interests, some main challenges remain. These include the need to further diversify production, linking to the Global Value Chains and developing adequate infra-structures facilitating digital trade as a vehicle for economic growth. The WTO, in close collaboration with partner institutions, lends its support to Africa in overcoming some of these issues through various programs, all geared towards trade capacity building. It is argued that the work undertaken by WTO Chairs and academic institutions under the aegis of the WTO's Chairs Program (WCP) is of critical importance in providing the analytical underpinnings for the policy choices in support of a fuller integration in the multilateral trading system. Preparations are under way meeting all the conditions for this program to be significantly expanded and deepened in 2021 with a view of further strengthening its capacity to provide support to beneficiaries and especially LDCs, hence African countries, integrating in the multilateral trading system.
建立世贸组织的《马拉喀什协定》认识到需要作出积极努力,以确保发展中国家,特别是其中的最不发达国家在国际贸易增长中获得与其经济发展需要相称的份额。本文讨论了世贸组织如何促进非洲融入世贸组织多边贸易体制。有人认为,虽然非洲国家积极参与世贸组织的工作,确保其经济和政策利益,但仍存在一些主要挑战。其中包括需要进一步实现生产多样化,与全球价值链联系起来,以及发展适当的基础设施,促进数字贸易作为经济增长的工具。世界贸易组织与伙伴机构密切合作,通过各种方案支持非洲克服其中一些问题,这些方案都是针对贸易能力建设的。本文认为,在WTO主席计划(WCP)的支持下,WTO主席和学术机构所开展的工作对于为政策选择提供分析基础,以支持更全面地融入多边贸易体系至关重要。目前正在进行各项准备工作,以满足2021年大幅扩大和深化该计划的所有条件,以期进一步加强其向受益者,特别是最不发达国家(即非洲国家)提供支持以融入多边贸易体系的能力。
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引用次数: 0
The Shifting Contours of Trade in Knowledge 知识贸易的变化轮廓
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.30875/3e815577-en
A. Taubman
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引用次数: 0
The WTO Global Trade Costs Index and Its Determinants WTO全球贸易成本指数及其决定因素
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.30875/29ba5a43-en
S. Rubínová, Mehdi Sebti
This study provides a decomposition of the WTO Global Trade Costs Index into five policy-relevant components: transport and travel costs; information and transaction costs; ICT connectedness; trade policy and regulatorydifferences; and governance quality. The WTO Global Trade CostsIndex is based on a new methodology by Egger et al. (2021) that delivers directional trade cost estimates and sector-specific elasticities whichare crucialforinferring tradecostsfromtradeflows data. Theresulting measure of trade costs includes all factors that burden foreign sales more than domestic ones. In this study, we run a sectoral regression analysis to determine what drives trade costs variation across partners and use the resultstodecompose the variation in trade costsin eachsector. We show that transport and travel costs play the most important role in overall trade costs both for goods and services. Tradepolicy and regulatorydifferences are the second major component of trade costs in most sectors, accounting for at least 14%. The importance of this component is particularly striking for trade among lower-income economies. Moreover, our results alsoshow that trade policy in services sectors matters for trade costs in goods, and vice versa. Finally, we find that access to information and communication technology is especially important for tradecostsin services where its importance hasincreasedover time, highlighting the role that digitaldelivery plays in this sector.
本研究将WTO全球贸易成本指数分解为五个与政策相关的组成部分:运输和旅行成本;信息和交易成本;ICT连通性;贸易政策和监管差异;以及治理质量。WTO全球贸易成本指数基于Egger等人(2021)的一种新方法,该方法提供了定向贸易成本估算和部门特定弹性,这对于从贸易流动数据推断贸易成本至关重要。由此得出的贸易成本指标包括了对国外销售造成比国内销售更大负担的所有因素。在本研究中,我们进行了部门回归分析,以确定驱动贸易成本在合作伙伴之间变化的因素,并使用结果分解每个部门的贸易成本变化。我们表明,运输和旅行成本在商品和服务的总贸易成本中起着最重要的作用。贸易政策和监管差异是大多数部门贸易成本的第二大组成部分,至少占14%。这一组成部分对低收入经济体之间的贸易尤为重要。此外,我们的研究结果还表明,服务部门的贸易政策对商品贸易成本有影响,反之亦然。最后,我们发现获取信息和通信技术对于服务贸易成本尤其重要,其重要性随着时间的推移而增加,突出了数字交付在该部门发挥的作用。
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引用次数: 1
Potential Economic Effects of a Global Trade Conflict 全球贸易冲突的潜在经济影响
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.30875/7dc4c62e-en
E. Bekkers, Robert R. Teh
The WTO Global Trade Model is employed to project the medium-run economic effects of a global trade conflict. The trade conflict scenario is based on recent estimates in the literature of the difference between cooperative and non-cooperative tariffs. The study provides three main insights. First, the projected macroeconomic effects in the medium run are considerable. A global trade conflict started in 2019 would lead to a reduction in global GDP in 2022 of about 1.96% and a reduction in global trade of about 17% compared to the baseline. For context global GDP fell about 2.1% and global trade 12.4% in the global financial crisis of 2009. Second, behind the single-digit aggregate production effects there are much larger, double-digit sectoral production effects in many countries, leading to a painful adjustment process. In general, a global trade conflict leads to a reallocation of resources away from the most efficient allocation based on comparative advantage. Third, the large swings in sectoral production lead to substantial labour displacement. On average 1.15% and 1.74% of high-skilled and low-skilled workers respectively would leave their initial sector of employment.
本文采用WTO全球贸易模型对全球贸易冲突的中期经济影响进行了预测。贸易冲突情景是基于最近文献中对合作和非合作关税之间差异的估计。这项研究提供了三个主要见解。首先,中期预期的宏观经济影响是可观的。2019年开始的全球贸易冲突将导致2022年全球GDP与基线相比减少约1.96%,全球贸易减少约17%。举例来说,在2009年的全球金融危机中,全球GDP下降了2.1%,全球贸易下降了12.4%。其次,在一位数的总生产效应背后,许多国家的部门生产效应要大得多,达到两位数,这导致了一个痛苦的调整过程。一般来说,全球贸易冲突会导致资源的重新配置,而不是基于比较优势的最有效配置。第三,行业生产的大幅波动导致大量劳动力流失。平均1.15%的高技能工人和1.74%的低技能工人会离开他们最初的就业部门。
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引用次数: 18
Trade Costs in the Global Economy 全球经济中的贸易成本
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.30875/e6c4c0b1-en
P. Egger, Mario Larch, Sergey Nigai, Y. Yotov
Proper measurement and aggregation of trade costs is of paramount importance for sound academic and policy analysis of the determinants - particularly those of policy - of economic outcomes. The international trade profession has witnessed significant new developments, both on the theoretical and on the empirical side, concerning the measurement and decomposition of such costs into variable and fixed costs on the one hand and into partial and general equilibrium effects on the other hand. The objectives and main contributions of this project are to offer guidance for proper measurement, aggregation, and decomposition of trade costs into fixed vs. variable and partial vs. general equilibrium costs across two broad dimensions, one including overall trade costs vs. policy measures vs. transportation costs vs. natural trade barriers vs. uncertainty and another one including geography vs. product vs. household income level vs. agent.
贸易成本的适当衡量和汇总对于对经济结果的决定因素,特别是政策决定因素进行合理的学术和政策分析至关重要。国际贸易专业在理论和经验方面都有了重大的新发展,一方面是将这些成本衡量和分解为可变成本和固定成本,另一方面是部分和一般平衡效应。本项目的目标和主要贡献是在两个广泛的维度上,为将贸易成本适当地测量、汇总和分解为固定与可变、部分与一般均衡成本提供指导,一个维度包括总体贸易成本、政策措施、运输成本、自然贸易壁垒、不确定性,另一个维度包括地理、产品、家庭收入水平、代理人。
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引用次数: 6
Trade Policies for a Circular Economy 循环经济的贸易政策
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.30875/2ced559e-en
K. Steinfatt
From its initial focus on minimizing waste generation, the circular economy has evolved into a broad-based approach to make resource use more sustainable. A big part of the appeal of a circular economy is the opportunities it creates not only for resource savings and better human health and environmental outcomes, but also for trade and economic diversification. As interest in circular economy approaches grows, it becomes increasingly important to ensure that trade policies are designed and implemented with the goals of a circular economy in mind. Doing so would bolster the role of trade in scaling up circular economy solutions worldwide. This paper reviews work at the WTO related to the circular economy. It shows how WTO members have addressed issues related to the circular economy through policy dialogue, peer review, negotiations and more recently, Aid for Trade. Experience in these four areas provides valuable insights into how WTO members can expand the positive contribution of trade to a circular economy, not least by: (i) improving their collective understanding of how trade interacts with the circular economy; (ii) building trust and confidence to engage in mutually beneficial activities related to circular economy; (iii) opening and facilitating trade in key areas of the circular economy; and (iv) supporting efforts in developing countries to seize the potential environmental, economic and social benefits of a circular economy through enhanced trade.
从最初的重点是尽量减少废物产生,循环经济已经发展成为一种基础广泛的方法,使资源的使用更具可持续性。循环经济的吸引力很大一部分在于它不仅为节约资源和改善人类健康和环境成果创造了机会,而且还为贸易和经济多样化创造了机会。随着人们对循环经济方法的兴趣日益浓厚,确保贸易政策的设计和实施以循环经济为目标变得越来越重要。这样做将加强贸易在扩大全球循环经济解决方案中的作用。本文回顾了世贸组织与循环经济相关的工作。它展示了世贸组织成员如何通过政策对话、同行审议、谈判以及最近的贸易援助来解决与循环经济相关的问题。这四个领域的经验为世贸组织成员如何扩大贸易对循环经济的积极贡献提供了宝贵的见解,尤其是通过以下方式:(i)提高他们对贸易如何与循环经济相互作用的集体理解;(二)建立信任和信心,开展与循环经济相关的互利活动;(三)开放和便利循环经济重点领域的贸易;(四)支持发展中国家通过加强贸易抓住循环经济潜在的环境、经济和社会效益的努力。
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引用次数: 2
The Impact of Services Liberalization on Education 服务业自由化对教育的影响
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.30875/186bad5c-en
Enrico Nano, Gaurav Nayyar, S. Rubínová, Victor Stolzenburg
This paper studies the impact of services liberalization on education and the gender education gap at the district level in India. We focus on the time period 1987 to 1999 and three services sectors - banking, insurance and telecommunications - which were all state monopolies, have been heavily liberalized in the time frame studied, have relatively high shares of female employment and require high education investments. Our hypothesis is that the national-level liberalization spurred higher investment in education, particularly girls' education, in districts with higher employment growth in these key services sectors. We employ a first difference strategy to control for unobserved time-invariant heterogeneity, use an IV procedure to eliminate other potential sources of bias and control for the simultaneous tariff liberalization. Our results indicate that employment growth in liberalized services sectors is a consistently significant determinant of both the average number of years of schooling (positively) and the gender education gap (negatively). These effects are at least as relevant as those of merchandise trade liberalization, are persistent and driven mostly by the banking and, to a lower extent, the telecommunications sectors. Looking at the transmission channels, we employ a 3SLS strategy and observe that both growing incomes and higher returns to education drive this relationship.
本文研究了服务自由化对印度地区教育和性别教育差距的影响。我们把重点放在1987年至1999年期间,三个服务部门- -银行、保险和电信- -都是国家垄断,在研究的时间框架内已经大量自由化,女性就业的比例相对较高,需要较高的教育投资。我们的假设是,在这些关键服务部门就业增长较快的地区,国家层面的自由化刺激了更高的教育投资,尤其是女童教育投资。我们采用一阶差分策略来控制未观察到的时不变异质性,使用IV程序来消除其他潜在的偏差来源,并对同步关税自由化进行控制。我们的研究结果表明,自由化服务部门的就业增长是平均受教育年限(正)和性别教育差距(负)的一个持续显著的决定因素。这些影响至少与商品贸易自由化的影响同样重要,而且是持久的,主要是由银行部门和在较低程度上由电信部门推动的。从传播渠道来看,我们采用了3SLS策略,并观察到收入的增长和教育回报的提高都推动了这种关系。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
WTO Working Papers
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