I. Menchacatorre, Roshan Sharma, Beathe Furenes, B. Lie
A deterministic reference tracking model predictive control (MPC) is in use at Skagerak Kraft for flood management of Lake Toke in Norway. An operational inflow estimate is used to predict the optimal gate opening at Dalsfos power station, with required constraints set by the Norwegian Water Resource and Energy Directorate (NVE). The operational inflow estimate is based on the meteorological forecast, and is uncertain; this may lead to broken concession requirements and unnecessary release of water through the floodgates. Currently not utilized, the meteorological uncertainty is quantified by an ensemble of possible weather forecasts. In this paper, quantified inflow uncertainty is studied and how this affects the operation of the current, deterministic MPC solution. Next, we develop an alternative, stochastic MPC solution based on multi objective optimization which directly takes the inflow uncertainty into consideration. A comparison of the results from both approaches concludes that the stochastic MPC solution seems to give better control by reducing the amount of water released through the flood gates. Furthermore, with less frequent update of the control signal, the benefit of the stochastic MPC is expected to increase.
{"title":"Flood Management of Lake Toke: MPC Operation under Uncertainty","authors":"I. Menchacatorre, Roshan Sharma, Beathe Furenes, B. Lie","doi":"10.3384/ecp201709","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3384/ecp201709","url":null,"abstract":"A deterministic reference tracking model predictive control (MPC) is in use at Skagerak Kraft for flood management of Lake Toke in Norway. An operational inflow estimate is used to predict the optimal gate opening at Dalsfos power station, with required constraints set by the Norwegian Water Resource and Energy Directorate (NVE). The operational inflow estimate is based on the meteorological forecast, and is uncertain; this may lead to broken concession requirements and unnecessary release of water through the floodgates. Currently not utilized, the meteorological uncertainty is quantified by an ensemble of possible weather forecasts. In this paper, quantified inflow uncertainty is studied and how this affects the operation of the current, deterministic MPC solution. Next, we develop an alternative, stochastic MPC solution based on multi objective optimization which directly takes the inflow uncertainty into consideration. A comparison of the results from both approaches concludes that the stochastic MPC solution seems to give better control by reducing the amount of water released through the flood gates. Furthermore, with less frequent update of the control signal, the benefit of the stochastic MPC is expected to increase.","PeriodicalId":179867,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of The 60th SIMS Conference on Simulation and Modelling SIMS 2019, August 12-16, Västerås, Sweden","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114724461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In collaboration with the Distributed System Operator (DSO) at Hvaler which is Norgesnett, a weak grid is simulated in NETBAS. The aim with the simulation is to study the impact clouds have on the production at the solar panels since the production drops locally at the customers from passing clouds. Also, the impact this has on the DSO with the requirements given from § 3.4 in the Norwegian Directive on Quality of supply (FoL) regarding ∆Ustationary are considered. The simulations are conducted with different scenarios which illustrate the power production in the solar panels when cloudy. In collaboration with the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway) solar data is used to get a more realistic picture of the sun condition at Hvaler and the corresponding scenarios. The main findings are that the passing clouds had a large impact on the voltage drop at the customers simulated in the weak grid at Søndre Sandøy. Also the objects at Søndre Sandøy without solar panels are affected by the clouds reducing the power output from the objects with solar panels. As a result, both of the objects with and without solar panels exceeded the requirement given from FoL § 3.4 in some of the scenarios. The conclusion is that clouds had a significant impact on the customers simulated at the weak grid at Hvaler, resulting in a voltage drop which gives challenges for the DSO regarding FoL.
{"title":"Impact of distributed power generation at the customer","authors":"Marius Sale, D. Winkler","doi":"10.3384/ecp2017036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3384/ecp2017036","url":null,"abstract":"In collaboration with the Distributed System Operator (DSO) at Hvaler which is Norgesnett, a weak grid is simulated in NETBAS. The aim with the simulation is to study the impact clouds have on the production at the solar panels since the production drops locally at the customers from passing clouds. Also, the impact this has on the DSO with the requirements given from § 3.4 in the Norwegian Directive on Quality of supply (FoL) regarding ∆Ustationary are considered. The simulations are conducted with different scenarios which illustrate the power production in the solar panels when cloudy. In collaboration with the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway) solar data is used to get a more realistic picture of the sun condition at Hvaler and the corresponding scenarios. The main findings are that the passing clouds had a large impact on the voltage drop at the customers simulated in the weak grid at Søndre Sandøy. Also the objects at Søndre Sandøy without solar panels are affected by the clouds reducing the power output from the objects with solar panels. As a result, both of the objects with and without solar panels exceeded the requirement given from FoL § 3.4 in some of the scenarios. The conclusion is that clouds had a significant impact on the customers simulated at the weak grid at Hvaler, resulting in a voltage drop which gives challenges for the DSO regarding FoL.","PeriodicalId":179867,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of The 60th SIMS Conference on Simulation and Modelling SIMS 2019, August 12-16, Västerås, Sweden","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121476400","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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