Pub Date : 2023-01-09DOI: 10.1017/s1365100522000669
M. El-Shagi, Lunan Jiang
Although China’s monetary and financial system differs drastically from its Western counterpart, empirical studies covering this vast economy have often been simple reestimations or recalibrations of models originally designed to describe US or European monetary policy. In this paper, we aim to assess Chinese monetary policy and, in particular, monetary policy transmission through yield curves into the real economy. Our study takes into account the peculiarities of the Chinese economy: Namely, our model includes both China’s modern attempts at a market-based monetary policy as well as the “authority-based” one that is a relic of the original banking system. Besides, it considers the special nature of the Chinese treasury bond market, which is separated into two independent ones with very limited direct arbitrage opportunities between almost identical assets. Finally, it incorporates the role of real estate, which played an essential role in China during the last decade. Our results show that different monetary policy shocks cause asymmetric effects on macroeconomic and financial variables.
{"title":"Monetary policy transmission in China: dual shocks with dual bond markets","authors":"M. El-Shagi, Lunan Jiang","doi":"10.1017/s1365100522000669","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100522000669","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Although China’s monetary and financial system differs drastically from its Western counterpart, empirical studies covering this vast economy have often been simple reestimations or recalibrations of models originally designed to describe US or European monetary policy. In this paper, we aim to assess Chinese monetary policy and, in particular, monetary policy transmission through yield curves into the real economy. Our study takes into account the peculiarities of the Chinese economy: Namely, our model includes both China’s modern attempts at a market-based monetary policy as well as the “authority-based” one that is a relic of the original banking system. Besides, it considers the special nature of the Chinese treasury bond market, which is separated into two independent ones with very limited direct arbitrage opportunities between almost identical assets. Finally, it incorporates the role of real estate, which played an essential role in China during the last decade. Our results show that different monetary policy shocks cause asymmetric effects on macroeconomic and financial variables.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47862403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-09DOI: 10.1017/s1365100522000694
L. Voellmy
I study a model of self-fulfilling bank runs where government-provided deposit insurance covers small (retail) deposits but not large (wholesale) deposits. The share of the banking system that may be affected by runs depends on the distribution of retail and wholesale deposits across banks. The magnitude of runs is minimized if banks with both retail and wholesale depositors (reminiscent of commercial banks) coexist with banks that cater only to wholesale depositors (reminiscent of shadow banks). The shadow banking sector should be large enough to absorb enough wholesale deposits from commercial banks to keep them shielded from runs. In a decentralized equilibrium, the magnitude of runs tends to be larger than optimal as a result of wholesale depositors’ incentive to invest in the banks with the highest share of retail depositors.
{"title":"The optimal distribution of insured and uninsured deposits across banks","authors":"L. Voellmy","doi":"10.1017/s1365100522000694","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100522000694","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 I study a model of self-fulfilling bank runs where government-provided deposit insurance covers small (retail) deposits but not large (wholesale) deposits. The share of the banking system that may be affected by runs depends on the distribution of retail and wholesale deposits across banks. The magnitude of runs is minimized if banks with both retail and wholesale depositors (reminiscent of commercial banks) coexist with banks that cater only to wholesale depositors (reminiscent of shadow banks). The shadow banking sector should be large enough to absorb enough wholesale deposits from commercial banks to keep them shielded from runs. In a decentralized equilibrium, the magnitude of runs tends to be larger than optimal as a result of wholesale depositors’ incentive to invest in the banks with the highest share of retail depositors.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45728976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-09DOI: 10.1017/s1365100522000657
C. Görtz, Wei Li, J. Tsoukalas, Francesco Zanetti
This paper uses vector autoregression model analysis to identify monetary policy shocks on UK data using surprise changes in the policy rate as external instruments and imposing block exogeneity restrictions on domestic variables to estimate parameters from the viewpoint of the domestic economy. The results show large and persistent effects of monetary policy shocks on the domestic economy and point to the critical role of exchange rates and term premia. The analysis resolves important empirical puzzles of traditional recursive identification methods.
{"title":"Vintage article: the effect of monetary policy shocks in the UK: an external instruments approach","authors":"C. Görtz, Wei Li, J. Tsoukalas, Francesco Zanetti","doi":"10.1017/s1365100522000657","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100522000657","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper uses vector autoregression model analysis to identify monetary policy shocks on UK data using surprise changes in the policy rate as external instruments and imposing block exogeneity restrictions on domestic variables to estimate parameters from the viewpoint of the domestic economy. The results show large and persistent effects of monetary policy shocks on the domestic economy and point to the critical role of exchange rates and term premia. The analysis resolves important empirical puzzles of traditional recursive identification methods.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49540667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-11-23DOI: 10.1017/s1365100522000566
P. Gandré
In the USA, the linkages between the housing market, the credit market, and the real sector have been striking in the past decades. To explain these linkages, I develop a small-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which agents update non-rational beliefs about future house price growth, in accord with recent survey data evidence. Both standard productivity shocks and shocks in the credit sector generate endogenously persistent booms in house prices. Long-lasting excess volatility in house prices, in turn, affects the financial sector and propagates to the real sector. This amplification and propagation mechanism improves the ability of the model to explain empirical puzzles in the US housing market and to explain the macro-financial linkages during 1985−2019. The learning model can also replicate the predictability of forecast errors evidenced in recent survey data.
{"title":"A Note on Learning, House Prices, and Macro-Financial Linkages","authors":"P. Gandré","doi":"10.1017/s1365100522000566","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100522000566","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In the USA, the linkages between the housing market, the credit market, and the real sector have been striking in the past decades. To explain these linkages, I develop a small-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which agents update non-rational beliefs about future house price growth, in accord with recent survey data evidence. Both standard productivity shocks and shocks in the credit sector generate endogenously persistent booms in house prices. Long-lasting excess volatility in house prices, in turn, affects the financial sector and propagates to the real sector. This amplification and propagation mechanism improves the ability of the model to explain empirical puzzles in the US housing market and to explain the macro-financial linkages during 1985−2019. The learning model can also replicate the predictability of forecast errors evidenced in recent survey data.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44436299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-11-15DOI: 10.1017/s136510052200058x
Marco Amendola
The paper estimates public consumption multipliers and whether they vary depending on the slack of the economy. To this aim, linear and smooth-transition panel local projections are applied to a data set composed of quarterly data on nine selected Euro area countries for the period 1999Q1−2018Q4. The results show that the linear multiplier is approximately 1.3 and so above unity. This is, however, an “average result” as clear evidence is found in favor of state dependency. Particularly, the findings indicate that the multiplier is approximately 2.0 in the slack regime, while it is below 0.5 in the good regime. These results are robust along several dimensions, such as alternative measures of slack and controlling for fiscal foresight. Some linear and state-dependent transmission channels are also investigated.
{"title":"Public Consumption Multipliers in Slack and Good Periods: Evidence From the Euro Area","authors":"Marco Amendola","doi":"10.1017/s136510052200058x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s136510052200058x","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The paper estimates public consumption multipliers and whether they vary depending on the slack of the economy. To this aim, linear and smooth-transition panel local projections are applied to a data set composed of quarterly data on nine selected Euro area countries for the period 1999Q1−2018Q4. The results show that the linear multiplier is approximately 1.3 and so above unity. This is, however, an “average result” as clear evidence is found in favor of state dependency. Particularly, the findings indicate that the multiplier is approximately 2.0 in the slack regime, while it is below 0.5 in the good regime. These results are robust along several dimensions, such as alternative measures of slack and controlling for fiscal foresight. Some linear and state-dependent transmission channels are also investigated.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46297719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-11-10DOI: 10.1017/s1365100522000578
S. Z. Ali, Irfan A. Qureshi
Typically, contractionary monetary policy shocks increase the nominal and real rate of interest, which reduces both inflation and output . In contrast, the neo-Fisher effect (NFE) suggests that a transitory but persistent increase in the nominal rate of interest increases inflation in the short run. In a New Keynesian model augmented with several frictions, including the cost channel of monetary policy, real wage rigidity, habit formation in consumption, dampened expectations, and anticipated monetary policy shocks, we derive analytical conditions that give rise to (or avert) the NFE. We show that the NFE can arise due to the interplay between these frictions, and not only when the persistence of the policy shock is large, or when agents are forward-looking, as documented by the existing literature.
{"title":"A Note on the Neo-Fisher Effect in the New Keynesian Model","authors":"S. Z. Ali, Irfan A. Qureshi","doi":"10.1017/s1365100522000578","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100522000578","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Typically, contractionary monetary policy shocks increase the nominal and real rate of interest, which reduces both inflation and output . In contrast, the neo-Fisher effect (NFE) suggests that a transitory but persistent increase in the nominal rate of interest increases inflation in the short run. In a New Keynesian model augmented with several frictions, including the cost channel of monetary policy, real wage rigidity, habit formation in consumption, dampened expectations, and anticipated monetary policy shocks, we derive analytical conditions that give rise to (or avert) the NFE. We show that the NFE can arise due to the interplay between these frictions, and not only when the persistence of the policy shock is large, or when agents are forward-looking, as documented by the existing literature.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46596087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-11-03DOI: 10.1017/s1365100522000487
Philipp Pfeiffer, J. Varga, Jan in ’t Veld
In response to the recession brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, EU-wide macroeconomic policy has launched an unprecedented coordinated fiscal expansion across the EU (Next Generation EU or NGEU), financed by issuing common debt. Given NGEU’s nature, it is essential to take fiscal spillovers into consideration when assessing the overall macroeconomic effects of this fiscal expansion. We quantify the effects of the additional public investment for all Member States in a rich macro-model with a trade structure. Our model suggests that, on average, GDP effects are around one-third larger when explicitly accounting for the spillover effects from individual-country measures. For small open economies with smaller NGEU allocations, spillover effects account for the bulk of the GDP impact. We also quantify key transmission channels.
{"title":"Quantifying spillovers of coordinated investment stimulus in the EU","authors":"Philipp Pfeiffer, J. Varga, Jan in ’t Veld","doi":"10.1017/s1365100522000487","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100522000487","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In response to the recession brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, EU-wide macroeconomic policy has launched an unprecedented coordinated fiscal expansion across the EU (Next Generation EU or NGEU), financed by issuing common debt. Given NGEU’s nature, it is essential to take fiscal spillovers into consideration when assessing the overall macroeconomic effects of this fiscal expansion. We quantify the effects of the additional public investment for all Member States in a rich macro-model with a trade structure. Our model suggests that, on average, GDP effects are around one-third larger when explicitly accounting for the spillover effects from individual-country measures. For small open economies with smaller NGEU allocations, spillover effects account for the bulk of the GDP impact. We also quantify key transmission channels.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44927328","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-19DOI: 10.1017/s1365100522000475
S. Acosta‐Ormaechea, Atsuyoshi Morozumi
This paper analyzes how idiosyncratic risk, measured by the variance of firm-level idiosyncratic shocks, affects long-run growth when bankruptcy costs are present. These costs are incurred by creditors during the bankruptcy procedure of failing firms. In an endogenous growth model with bankruptcy costs where firms privately observe the outcome of idiosyncratic shocks, an increase in idiosyncratic risk reduces long-run growth. This happens because, when bankruptcy costs are present, higher idiosyncratic risk enlarges the wedge between the rental rate of capital and its marginal product, thereby slowing down capital accumulation. This growth-reducing effect of idiosyncratic risk is stronger when bankruptcy costs are higher. Empirical support for these propositions is provided in a growth regression that exploits cross-country variations in the dispersion of firms’ real sales growth as a proxy for idiosyncratic risk along with recovery rates as a measure that proxies the inverse of bankruptcy costs.
{"title":"Bankruptcy costs, idiosyncratic risk, and long-run growth","authors":"S. Acosta‐Ormaechea, Atsuyoshi Morozumi","doi":"10.1017/s1365100522000475","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100522000475","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes how idiosyncratic risk, measured by the variance of firm-level idiosyncratic shocks, affects long-run growth when bankruptcy costs are present. These costs are incurred by creditors during the bankruptcy procedure of failing firms. In an endogenous growth model with bankruptcy costs where firms privately observe the outcome of idiosyncratic shocks, an increase in idiosyncratic risk reduces long-run growth. This happens because, when bankruptcy costs are present, higher idiosyncratic risk enlarges the wedge between the rental rate of capital and its marginal product, thereby slowing down capital accumulation. This growth-reducing effect of idiosyncratic risk is stronger when bankruptcy costs are higher. Empirical support for these propositions is provided in a growth regression that exploits cross-country variations in the dispersion of firms’ real sales growth as a proxy for idiosyncratic risk along with recovery rates as a measure that proxies the inverse of bankruptcy costs.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42595417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：