Pub Date : 2023-03-20DOI: 10.1017/s1365100523000111
ShinHyuck Kang, Kwangyong Park
Abstract In this paper, we empirically explore the endogeneity of uncertainty and the interaction between different types of uncertainty and monetary policy using a shock-restricted vector-autoregression model. We find that a contractionary monetary policy shock reduces financial uncertainty, opposite to the findings in the previous literature, while at the same time it also heightens real uncertainty. This discrepancy arises because the model allows endogenous shifts in uncertainty. We also show that endogenous responses of uncertainty amplify the effects of monetary policy on real activity.
{"title":"Endogenous uncertainty and monetary policy","authors":"ShinHyuck Kang, Kwangyong Park","doi":"10.1017/s1365100523000111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100523000111","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper, we empirically explore the endogeneity of uncertainty and the interaction between different types of uncertainty and monetary policy using a shock-restricted vector-autoregression model. We find that a contractionary monetary policy shock reduces financial uncertainty, opposite to the findings in the previous literature, while at the same time it also heightens real uncertainty. This discrepancy arises because the model allows endogenous shifts in uncertainty. We also show that endogenous responses of uncertainty amplify the effects of monetary policy on real activity.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135080113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-17DOI: 10.1017/s1365100522000724
Adrian R. Fleissig, B. Jones
We estimate elasticities of substitution between components of the Bank of England’s household-sector UK Divisia monetary aggregate using quarterly data from 1999 to 2019, encompassing the period surrounding the global financial crisis. The demand system includes interest-bearing sight and time deposits at monetary financial institutions as components, since deposit data for banks (excluding mutuals) and for mutuals are no longer published separately. We find that the elasticities of substitution that relate to changes in the user cost of noninterest-bearing monetary assets imply inelastic substitution over all or almost all of the sample and, consequently, a conventional monetary aggregate would be a highly misleading economic indicator relative to a Divisia monetary aggregate.
{"title":"UK household-sector money demand and Divisia monetary aggregates in the new millennium","authors":"Adrian R. Fleissig, B. Jones","doi":"10.1017/s1365100522000724","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100522000724","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We estimate elasticities of substitution between components of the Bank of England’s household-sector UK Divisia monetary aggregate using quarterly data from 1999 to 2019, encompassing the period surrounding the global financial crisis. The demand system includes interest-bearing sight and time deposits at monetary financial institutions as components, since deposit data for banks (excluding mutuals) and for mutuals are no longer published separately. We find that the elasticities of substitution that relate to changes in the user cost of noninterest-bearing monetary assets imply inelastic substitution over all or almost all of the sample and, consequently, a conventional monetary aggregate would be a highly misleading economic indicator relative to a Divisia monetary aggregate.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43447899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-16DOI: 10.1017/s1365100522000591
Johanna Röhrs
This paper augments the DMP model with large firms and intrafirm wage bargaining by an endogenous decision to become an entrepreneur that is based on heterogeneous entrepreneurial abilities. If workers’ wage bargaining power is not too large and the match efficiency is not too low, the decentralized market equilibrium features an inefficiently high number of entrepreneurs, because they appropriate large parts of the surplus from matches. A realistic calibration with empirically plausible parameters shows this case to be the relevant one. Consequently, introducing a tax on the profits of entrepreneurs restores the constrained first-best allocation by affecting occupational choices. It drives rather unproductive entrepreneurs out of the market since the marginal entrepreneur is affected and not the average one. Thus, the negative effects on job creation are small.
{"title":"Income taxation and job creation","authors":"Johanna Röhrs","doi":"10.1017/s1365100522000591","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100522000591","url":null,"abstract":"This paper augments the DMP model with large firms and intrafirm wage bargaining by an endogenous decision to become an entrepreneur that is based on heterogeneous entrepreneurial abilities. If workers’ wage bargaining power is not too large and the match efficiency is not too low, the decentralized market equilibrium features an inefficiently high number of entrepreneurs, because they appropriate large parts of the surplus from matches. A realistic calibration with empirically plausible parameters shows this case to be the relevant one. Consequently, introducing a tax on the profits of entrepreneurs restores the constrained first-best allocation by affecting occupational choices. It drives rather unproductive entrepreneurs out of the market since the marginal entrepreneur is affected and not the average one. Thus, the negative effects on job creation are small.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41652808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-15DOI: 10.1017/s1365100522000505
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{"title":"WITHDRAWAL – Global bank risk and monetary policy in an emerging economy","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/s1365100522000505","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100522000505","url":null,"abstract":"An abstract is not available for this content. As you have access to this content, full HTML content is provided on this page. A PDF of this content is also available in through the ‘Save PDF’ action button.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135648823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-10DOI: 10.1017/s1365100523000081
M. Iqbal Ahmed, Steven P. Cassou, Ruby P. Kishan
Abstract This paper investigates how responses of US macroeconomic activities to monetary policy shocks depend on the state of broker–dealer leverage. The analysis makes use of leverage data to create an indicator series that distinguishes above and below-trend leverage states for the economy which is then integrated into switching econometric models. Using state-dependent local projection methods, we find that during the below-trend leverage state, monetary policy affects the economy in a traditional fashion. However, during the above-trend leverage state, expansionary monetary policy is problematic for stimulating the economy. Additionally, during the above-trend leverage state, we find that a policy rate cut raises counterparty risks in financial markets, which in part accounts for the weaker effectiveness of the monetary policy. These findings are robust to several alternative modeling specifications and suggest that monetary policy authorities should monitor the leverage cycle when determining their policy stance on macroeconomic stability.
{"title":"State of broker–dealer leverage and the transmission of monetary policy","authors":"M. Iqbal Ahmed, Steven P. Cassou, Ruby P. Kishan","doi":"10.1017/s1365100523000081","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100523000081","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper investigates how responses of US macroeconomic activities to monetary policy shocks depend on the state of broker–dealer leverage. The analysis makes use of leverage data to create an indicator series that distinguishes above and below-trend leverage states for the economy which is then integrated into switching econometric models. Using state-dependent local projection methods, we find that during the below-trend leverage state, monetary policy affects the economy in a traditional fashion. However, during the above-trend leverage state, expansionary monetary policy is problematic for stimulating the economy. Additionally, during the above-trend leverage state, we find that a policy rate cut raises counterparty risks in financial markets, which in part accounts for the weaker effectiveness of the monetary policy. These findings are robust to several alternative modeling specifications and suggest that monetary policy authorities should monitor the leverage cycle when determining their policy stance on macroeconomic stability.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":"82 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136131319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-09DOI: 10.1017/s1365100522000712
Szabolcs Blazsek, A. Escribano, Adrián Licht
We contribute to the literature on empirical macroeconomic models with time-varying conditional moments, by introducing a heteroskedastic score-driven model with Student’s t-distributed innovations, named the heteroskedastic score-driven $t$ -QVAR (quasi-vector autoregressive) model. The $t$ -QVAR model is a robust nonlinear extension of the VARMA (VAR moving average) model. As an illustration, we apply the heteroskedastic $t$ -QVAR model to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, for which we estimate Gaussian-ABCD and $t$ -ABCD representations. We use data on economic output, inflation, interest rate, government spending, aggregate productivity, and consumption of the USA for the period of 1954 Q3 to 2022 Q1. Due to the robustness of the heteroskedastic $t$ -QVAR model, even including the period of the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we find a superior statistical performance, lower policy-relevant dynamic effects, and a higher estimation precision of the impulse response function for US gross domestic product growth and US inflation rate, for the heteroskedastic score-driven $t$ -ABCD representation rather than for the homoskedastic Gaussian-ABCD representation.
{"title":"Non-Gaussian score-driven conditionally heteroskedastic models with a macroeconomic application","authors":"Szabolcs Blazsek, A. Escribano, Adrián Licht","doi":"10.1017/s1365100522000712","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100522000712","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We contribute to the literature on empirical macroeconomic models with time-varying conditional moments, by introducing a heteroskedastic score-driven model with Student’s t-distributed innovations, named the heteroskedastic score-driven \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000$t$\u0000\u0000 \u0000 -QVAR (quasi-vector autoregressive) model. The \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000$t$\u0000\u0000 \u0000 -QVAR model is a robust nonlinear extension of the VARMA (VAR moving average) model. As an illustration, we apply the heteroskedastic \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000$t$\u0000\u0000 \u0000 -QVAR model to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, for which we estimate Gaussian-ABCD and \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000$t$\u0000\u0000 \u0000 -ABCD representations. We use data on economic output, inflation, interest rate, government spending, aggregate productivity, and consumption of the USA for the period of 1954 Q3 to 2022 Q1. Due to the robustness of the heteroskedastic \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000$t$\u0000\u0000 \u0000 -QVAR model, even including the period of the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we find a superior statistical performance, lower policy-relevant dynamic effects, and a higher estimation precision of the impulse response function for US gross domestic product growth and US inflation rate, for the heteroskedastic score-driven \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000$t$\u0000\u0000 \u0000 -ABCD representation rather than for the homoskedastic Gaussian-ABCD representation.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42500755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-09DOI: 10.1017/s1365100523000093
S. Lau, Qilin Zhang
Many economies have recently adopted the defined-contribution retirement financing system, but one disadvantage of this system is that retirees have to bear longevity risk. As a result, several economies have also introduced the public annuity plans. We analyze the similarities and differences between voluntary public annuity with ceiling (VPAc) plan and mandatory public annuity with flexibility (MPAf) plan that are empirically observed. Introducing either plan reduces the severity of adverse selection in public annuities, but further distorts the private annuity market. These two plans have systematically different effects on retirees’ utility levels: the good health group is adversely affected and the average health group benefits. On the other hand, the poor health group benefits from the VPAc plan but may be adversely affected under the MPAf plan.
{"title":"Severity reduction and private market distortion effects of voluntary and mandatory public annuity plans","authors":"S. Lau, Qilin Zhang","doi":"10.1017/s1365100523000093","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100523000093","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Many economies have recently adopted the defined-contribution retirement financing system, but one disadvantage of this system is that retirees have to bear longevity risk. As a result, several economies have also introduced the public annuity plans. We analyze the similarities and differences between voluntary public annuity with ceiling (VPAc) plan and mandatory public annuity with flexibility (MPAf) plan that are empirically observed. Introducing either plan reduces the severity of adverse selection in public annuities, but further distorts the private annuity market. These two plans have systematically different effects on retirees’ utility levels: the good health group is adversely affected and the average health group benefits. On the other hand, the poor health group benefits from the VPAc plan but may be adversely affected under the MPAf plan.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49470937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-02-28DOI: 10.1017/s136510052300007x
Ming-fu Shaw, Juin-jen Chang, Ching‐chong Lai
We endogenize the R&D financial structure and investigate the effects of tax policy (dividend, corporate, and bond income taxes). Agency costs exist between the supply of and demand for funding, which enable the financial market to reshuffle loanable funds out of less productive firms toward others with greater productivity. We show that the financial structure-growth relationship is not monotonic, depending on the relative productivity between the existing and new firms and the allocation of loanable funds between them. The allocation of loanable funds, rather than their market amount, plays a key role in determining the effects of policy.
{"title":"R&D finance and economic growth: a Schumpeterian model with endogenous financial structures","authors":"Ming-fu Shaw, Juin-jen Chang, Ching‐chong Lai","doi":"10.1017/s136510052300007x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s136510052300007x","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We endogenize the R&D financial structure and investigate the effects of tax policy (dividend, corporate, and bond income taxes). Agency costs exist between the supply of and demand for funding, which enable the financial market to reshuffle loanable funds out of less productive firms toward others with greater productivity. We show that the financial structure-growth relationship is not monotonic, depending on the relative productivity between the existing and new firms and the allocation of loanable funds between them. The allocation of loanable funds, rather than their market amount, plays a key role in determining the effects of policy.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48228638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-02-27DOI: 10.1017/s1365100523000019
Mohammed Bouaddi, Johnson Kakeu
This empirical paper deals with the impacts of sentiment about the future, short-run risk, and long-run risk in a dynamic economic model of optimal consumption decisions with Schroder and Skiadas [(1999) Journal of Economic Theory 89, 68–126.] continuous-time stochastic recursive preferences. The empirical strategy combines both a latent factor method and a democratic orthogonalization technique. The latent factor method is applied to a large database of macroeconomic indicators, and a democratic orthogonalization technique is used to separate the relative importance of sentiment about the future and long-run risk channels in shaping optimal consumption decisions. The empirical results suggest that consumers with recursive preferences are not indifferent to long-run uncertainty shocks to future consumption prospects. Endogenous consumption variations are driven by a multicomponent mechanism, where on average, the sentiment component accounts for 15.33%, the short-run risk accounts for 16.89%, and the long-run risk pertains to 34.51%.
这篇实证论文在Schroder和Skiadas[（1999）Journal of economic Theory 89，68–126.]连续时间随机递归偏好的最优消费决策的动态经济模型中研究了对未来的情绪、短期风险和长期风险的影响。经验策略结合了潜在因素法和民主正交化技术。将潜在因素法应用于大型宏观经济指标数据库，并使用民主正交化技术来分离对未来和长期风险渠道的情绪在形成最佳消费决策中的相对重要性。实证结果表明，具有递归偏好的消费者对未来消费前景的长期不确定性冲击并非漠不关心。内生消费变化是由一个多成分机制驱动的，其中情绪成分平均占15.33%，短期风险占16.89%，长期风险占34.51%。
{"title":"Estimating sentiment and risk in a consumption model: a factor analysis approach","authors":"Mohammed Bouaddi, Johnson Kakeu","doi":"10.1017/s1365100523000019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100523000019","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This empirical paper deals with the impacts of sentiment about the future, short-run risk, and long-run risk in a dynamic economic model of optimal consumption decisions with Schroder and Skiadas [(1999) Journal of Economic Theory 89, 68–126.] continuous-time stochastic recursive preferences. The empirical strategy combines both a latent factor method and a democratic orthogonalization technique. The latent factor method is applied to a large database of macroeconomic indicators, and a democratic orthogonalization technique is used to separate the relative importance of sentiment about the future and long-run risk channels in shaping optimal consumption decisions. The empirical results suggest that consumers with recursive preferences are not indifferent to long-run uncertainty shocks to future consumption prospects. Endogenous consumption variations are driven by a multicomponent mechanism, where on average, the sentiment component accounts for 15.33%, the short-run risk accounts for 16.89%, and the long-run risk pertains to 34.51%.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41906814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-02-27DOI: 10.1017/s1365100523000020
Max Breitenlechner, Martin Geiger, Johann Scharler
Can monetary policy stimulate consumption through inflation expectations? We study how US consumers revise inflation expectations and readiness to spend in response to monetary policy shocks using a structural vector-autoregressive model, where we identify exogenous policy shocks with interest rate surprises around FOMC announcements. Based on survey data, we construct measures of changes in consumers’ readiness to spend conditional on how consumers update their inflation expectations. Expansionary policy shocks tend to increase readiness to spend conditional on higher expected inflation outside the zero lower bound (ZLB), but the effect is small. At the ZLB, consumers increasingly reduce their readiness to spend if they expect higher inflation. Overall, we find only limited evidence suggesting that policy-induced variations in inflation expectations are associated with adjustments that are in line with the predictions of standard macroeconomic models.
{"title":"Monetary policy announcements, consumers’ inflation expectations, and readiness to spend","authors":"Max Breitenlechner, Martin Geiger, Johann Scharler","doi":"10.1017/s1365100523000020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100523000020","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Can monetary policy stimulate consumption through inflation expectations? We study how US consumers revise inflation expectations and readiness to spend in response to monetary policy shocks using a structural vector-autoregressive model, where we identify exogenous policy shocks with interest rate surprises around FOMC announcements. Based on survey data, we construct measures of changes in consumers’ readiness to spend conditional on how consumers update their inflation expectations. Expansionary policy shocks tend to increase readiness to spend conditional on higher expected inflation outside the zero lower bound (ZLB), but the effect is small. At the ZLB, consumers increasingly reduce their readiness to spend if they expect higher inflation. Overall, we find only limited evidence suggesting that policy-induced variations in inflation expectations are associated with adjustments that are in line with the predictions of standard macroeconomic models.","PeriodicalId":18078,"journal":{"name":"Macroeconomic Dynamics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2023-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42567049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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