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Modeling Extreme Events in Time Series Prediction 时间序列预测中的极端事件建模
Daizong Ding, Mi Zhang, Xudong Pan, Min Yang, Xiangnan He
Time series prediction is an intensively studied topic in data mining. In spite of the considerable improvements, recent deep learning-based methods overlook the existence of extreme events, which result in weak performance when applying them to real time series. Extreme events are rare and random, but do play a critical role in many real applications, such as the forecasting of financial crisis and natural disasters. In this paper, we explore the central theme of improving the ability of deep learning on modeling extreme events for time series prediction. Through the lens of formal analysis, we first find that the weakness of deep learning methods roots in the conventional form of quadratic loss. To address this issue, we take inspirations from the Extreme Value Theory, developing a new form of loss called Extreme Value Loss (EVL) for detecting the future occurrence of extreme events. Furthermore, we propose to employ Memory Network in order to memorize extreme events in historical records.By incorporating EVL with an adapted memory network module, we achieve an end-to-end framework for time series prediction with extreme events. Through extensive experiments on synthetic data and two real datasets of stock and climate, we empirically validate the effectiveness of our framework. Besides, we also provide a proper choice for hyper-parameters in our proposed framework by conducting several additional experiments.
时间序列预测是数据挖掘中一个被广泛研究的课题。尽管有了很大的改进,但最近基于深度学习的方法忽略了极端事件的存在,这导致在将它们应用于实时时间序列时性能较差。极端事件是罕见和随机的,但在许多实际应用中确实发挥着关键作用,例如预测金融危机和自然灾害。在本文中,我们探讨了提高深度学习在时间序列预测极端事件建模中的能力的中心主题。通过形式分析的镜头,我们首先发现深度学习方法的弱点根源于传统的二次损失形式。为了解决这个问题,我们从极值理论中获得灵感,开发了一种新的损失形式,称为极值损失(EVL),用于检测极端事件的未来发生。此外,我们提出利用记忆网络来记忆历史记录中的极端事件。通过将EVL与自适应记忆网络模块相结合,我们实现了具有极端事件的时间序列预测的端到端框架。通过对合成数据和两个真实数据集的大量实验,我们从经验上验证了我们的框架的有效性。此外,我们还通过几个额外的实验为我们提出的框架中的超参数提供了适当的选择。
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引用次数: 88
DuerQuiz
Chuan Qin, Hengshu Zhu, Chen Zhu, Tong Xu, Fuzhen Zhuang, Chao Ma, Jingshuai Zhang, Hui Xiong
In talent recruitment, the job interview aims at selecting the right candidates for the right jobs through assessing their skills and experiences in relation to the job positions. While tremendous efforts have been made in improving job interviews, a long-standing challenge is how to design appropriate interview questions for comprehensively assessing the competencies that may be deemed relevant and representative for person-job fit. To this end, in this research, we focus on the development of a personalized question recommender system, namely DuerQuiz, for enhancing the job interview assessment. DuerQuiz is a fully deployed system, in which a knowledge graph of job skills, Skill-Graph, has been built for comprehensively modeling the relevant competencies that should be assessed in the job interview. Specifically, we first develop a novel skill entity extraction approach based on a bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) with a Conditional Random Field (CRF) layer (LSTM-CRF) neural network enhanced with adapted gate mechanism. In particular, to improve the reliability of extracted skill entities, we design a label propagation method based on more than 10 billion click-through data from the large-scale Baidu query logs. Furthermore, we discover the hypernym-hyponym relations between skill entities and construct the Skill-Graph by leveraging the classifier trained with extensive contextual features. Finally, we design a personalized question recommendation algorithm based on the Skill-Graph for improving the efficiency and effectiveness of job interview assessment. Extensive experiments on real-world recruitment data clearly validate the effectiveness of DuerQuiz, which had been deployed for generating written exercises in the 2018 Baidu campus recruitment event and received remarkable performances in terms of efficiency and effectiveness for selecting outstanding talents compared with a traditional non-personalized human-only assessment approach.
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引用次数: 37
FDML
Yaochen Hu, Di Niu, Jianming Yang, Shengping Zhou
Most current distributed machine learning systems try to scale up model training by using a data-parallel architecture that divides the computation for different samples among workers. We study distributed machine learning from a different motivation, where the information about the same samples, e.g., users and objects, are owned by several parities that wish to collaborate but do not want to share raw data with each other. We propose an asynchronous stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm for such a feature distributed machine learning (FDML) problem, to jointly learn from distributed features, with theoretical convergence guarantees under bounded asynchrony. Our algorithm does not require sharing the original features or even local model parameters between parties, thus preserving the data locality. The system can also easily incorporate differential privacy mechanisms to preserve a higher level of privacy. We implement the FDML system in a parameter server architecture and compare our system with fully centralized learning (which violates data locality) and learning based on only local features, through extensive experiments performed on both a public data set a9a, and a large dataset of 5,000,000 records and 8700 decentralized features from three collaborating apps at Tencent including Tencent MyApp, Tecent QQ Browser and Tencent Mobile Safeguard. Experimental results have demonstrated that the proposed FDML system can be used to significantly enhance app recommendation in Tencent MyApp by leveraging user and item features from other apps, while preserving the locality and privacy of features in each individual app to a high degree.
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引用次数: 3
A Visual Dialog Augmented Interactive Recommender System 一个视觉对话增强互动推荐系统
Tong Yu, Yilin Shen, Hongxia Jin
Traditional recommender systems rely on user feedback such as ratings or clicks to the items, to analyze the user interest and provide personalized recommendations. However, rating or click feedback are limited in that they do not exactly tell why users like or dislike an item. If a user does not like the recommendations and can not effectively express the reasons via rating and clicking, the feedback from the user may be very sparse. These limitations lead to inefficient model learning of the recommender system. To address these limitations, more effective user feedback to the recommendations should be designed, so that the system can effectively understand a user's preference and improve the recommendations over time. In this paper, we propose a novel dialog-based recommender system to interactively recommend a list of items with visual appearance. At each time, the user receives a list of recommended items with visual appearance. The user can point to some items and describe their feedback, such as the desired features in the items they want in natural language. With this natural language based feedback, the recommender system updates and provides another list of items. To model the user behaviors of viewing, commenting and clicking on a list of items, we propose a visual dialog augmented cascade model. To efficiently understand the user preference and learn the model, exploration should be encouraged to provide more diverse recommendations to quickly collect user feedback on more attributes of the items. We propose a variant of the cascading bandits, where the neural representations of the item images and user feedback in natural language are utilized. In a task of recommending a list of footwear, we show that our visual dialog augmented interactive recommender needs around 41.03% rounds of recommendations, compared to the traditional interactive recommender only relying on the user click behavior.
传统的推荐系统依赖于用户的反馈,如对物品的评分或点击,来分析用户的兴趣并提供个性化的推荐。然而,评级或点击反馈是有限的,因为它们不能准确地告诉用户为什么喜欢或不喜欢某件商品。如果用户不喜欢推荐,不能通过打分和点击有效的表达原因,用户的反馈可能会非常稀少。这些限制导致推荐系统的模型学习效率低下。为了解决这些限制,应该设计更有效的用户对推荐的反馈,以便系统能够有效地了解用户的偏好,并随着时间的推移改进推荐。在本文中,我们提出了一种新的基于对话框的推荐系统,以交互方式推荐具有视觉外观的项目列表。每次,用户都会收到一个具有视觉外观的推荐项目列表。用户可以指向一些物品并描述他们的反馈,例如他们想要的物品的所需功能。有了这种基于自然语言的反馈,推荐系统更新并提供了另一个项目列表。为了模拟用户查看、评论和点击项目列表的行为,我们提出了一个视觉对话增强级联模型。为了有效地了解用户偏好和学习模型,应该鼓励探索,提供更多样化的推荐,以快速收集用户对物品更多属性的反馈。我们提出了一种层叠强盗的变体,其中利用了项目图像的神经表示和自然语言的用户反馈。在一个推荐鞋类列表的任务中,我们发现我们的视觉对话增强交互式推荐需要大约41.03%的推荐轮,而传统的交互式推荐只依赖于用户的点击行为。
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引用次数: 51
Relation Extraction via Domain-aware Transfer Learning 基于领域感知迁移学习的关系提取
Shimin Di, Yanyan Shen, Lei Chen
Relation extraction in knowledge base construction has been researched for the last decades due to its applicability to many problems. Most classical works, such as supervised information extraction and distant supervision, focus on how to construct the knowledge base (KB) by utilizing the large number of labels or certain related KBs. However, in many real-world scenarios, the existing methods may not perform well when a new knowledge base is required but only scarce labels or few related KBs available. In this paper, we propose a novel approach called, Relation Extraction via Domain-aware Transfer Learning (ReTrans), to extract relation mentions from a given text corpus by exploring the experience from a large amount of existing KBs which may not be closely related to the target relation. We first propose to initialize the representation of relation mentions from the massive text corpus and update those representations according to existing KBs. Based on the representations of relation mentions, we investigate the contribution of each KB to the target task and propose to select useful KBs for boosting the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Based on selected KBs, we develop a novel domain-aware transfer learning framework to transfer knowledge from source domains to the target domain, aiming to infer the true relation mentions in the unstructured text corpus. Most importantly, we give the stability and generalization bound of ReTrans. Experimental results on the real world datasets well demonstrate that the effectiveness of our approach, which outperforms all the state-of-the-art baselines.
知识库构建中的关系提取由于适用于许多问题,在过去的几十年里一直被研究。有监督信息抽取和远程监督等经典研究主要关注的是如何利用大量的标签或某些相关的知识库来构建知识库。然而,在许多现实场景中,当需要一个新的知识库,但只有很少的标签或相关的知识库可用时,现有的方法可能表现不佳。在本文中,我们提出了一种新的方法,称为通过领域感知迁移学习(ReTrans)进行关系提取,通过从大量现有的可能与目标关系不密切相关的知识库中探索经验,从给定的文本语料库中提取关系提及。我们首先提出从海量文本语料库中初始化关系提及的表示,并根据现有的知识库更新这些表示。基于关系提及的表示,我们研究了每个知识库对目标任务的贡献,并建议选择有用的知识库来提高所提出方法的有效性。基于选定的知识库,我们开发了一种新的领域感知迁移学习框架,将知识从源领域迁移到目标领域,旨在推断非结构化文本语料库中提及的真实关系。最重要的是,我们给出了ReTrans的稳定性和泛化界。在真实世界数据集上的实验结果很好地证明了我们的方法的有效性,它优于所有最先进的基线。
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引用次数: 21
Interview Choice Reveals Your Preference on the Market: To Improve Job-Resume Matching through Profiling Memories 面试选择揭示你在市场上的偏好:通过分析记忆提高工作简历匹配度
Rui Yan, Ran Le, Yang Song, Tao Zhang, Xiangliang Zhang, Dongyan Zhao
Online recruitment services are now rapidly changing the landscape of hiring traditions on the job market. There are hundreds of millions of registered users with resumes, and tens of millions of job postings available on the Web. Learning good job-resume matching for recruitment services is important. Existing studies on job-resume matching generally focus on learning good representations of job descriptions and resume texts with comprehensive matching structures. We assume that it would bring benefits to learn the preference of both recruiters and job-seekers from previous interview histories and expect such preference is helpful to improve job-resume matching. To this end, in this paper, we propose a novel matching network with preference modeled. The key idea is to explore the latent preference given the history of all interviewed candidates for a job posting and the history of all job applications for a particular talent. To be more specific, we propose a profiling memory module to learn the latent preference representation by interacting with both the job and resume sides. We then incorporate the preference into the matching framework as an end-to-end learnable neural network. Based on the real-world data from an online recruitment platform namely "Boss Zhipin", the experimental results show that the proposed model could improve the job-resume matching performance against a series of state-of-the-art methods. In this way, we demonstrate that recruiters and talents indeed have preference and such preference can improve job-resume matching on the job market.
在线招聘服务正在迅速改变就业市场上的招聘传统。网上有数以亿计的注册用户,他们有简历,也有数以千万计的招聘信息。学习好的简历匹配对于招聘服务很重要。现有的求职简历匹配研究一般侧重于学习具有综合匹配结构的职位描述和简历文本的良好表征。我们假设从以往的面试历史中了解招聘者和求职者的偏好会带来好处,并期望这种偏好有助于提高工作简历的匹配度。为此,本文提出了一种基于偏好模型的新型匹配网络。关键思想是在给定所有面试过的招聘候选人的历史和所有对特定人才的工作申请的历史的情况下,探索潜在的偏好。更具体地说,我们提出了一个分析记忆模块,通过与工作和简历双方交互来学习潜在的偏好表征。然后,我们将偏好合并到匹配框架中,作为端到端可学习的神经网络。基于在线招聘平台“Boss直聘”的真实数据,实验结果表明,该模型可以较好地提高求职简历匹配性能。通过这种方式,我们证明招聘者和人才确实存在偏好,这种偏好可以提高就业市场上的简历匹配度。
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引用次数: 39
Discovering Unexpected Local Nonlinear Interactions in Scientific Black-box Models 在科学黑箱模型中发现意外的局部非线性相互作用
Michael Doron, Idan Segev, Dafna Shahaf
Scientific computational models are crucial for analyzing and understanding complex real-life systems that are otherwise difficult for experimentation. However, the complex behavior and the vast input-output space of these models often make them opaque, slowing the discovery of novel phenomena. In this work, we present HINT (Hessian INTerestingness) -- a new algorithm that can automatically and systematically explore black-box models and highlight local nonlinear interactions in the input-output space of the model. This tool aims to facilitate the discovery of interesting model behaviors that are unknown to the researchers. Using this simple yet powerful tool, we were able to correctly rank all pairwise interactions in known benchmark models and do so faster and with greater accuracy than state-of-the-art methods. We further applied HINT to existing computational neuroscience models, and were able to reproduce important scientific discoveries that were published years after the creation of those models. Finally, we ran HINT on two real-world models (in neuroscience and earth science) and found new behaviors of the model that were of value to domain experts.
科学计算模型对于分析和理解复杂的现实生活系统至关重要,否则很难进行实验。然而,这些模型的复杂行为和巨大的输入输出空间往往使它们不透明,减缓了新现象的发现。在这项工作中,我们提出了HINT (Hessian INTerestingness)——一种可以自动系统地探索黑箱模型并突出模型输入输出空间中的局部非线性相互作用的新算法。该工具旨在促进研究人员未知的有趣模型行为的发现。使用这个简单而强大的工具,我们能够正确地对已知基准模型中的所有成对交互进行排序,并且比最先进的方法更快、更准确。我们进一步将HINT应用于现有的计算神经科学模型,并能够重现那些模型创建多年后发表的重要科学发现。最后,我们在两个现实世界的模型(神经科学和地球科学)上运行了HINT,并发现了对领域专家有价值的模型的新行为。
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引用次数: 4
Optuna: A Next-generation Hyperparameter Optimization Framework Optuna:下一代超参数优化框架
Takuya Akiba, Shotaro Sano, Toshihiko Yanase, Takeru Ohta, Masanori Koyama
The purpose of this study is to introduce new design-criteria for next-generation hyperparameter optimization software. The criteria we propose include (1) define-by-run API that allows users to construct the parameter search space dynamically, (2) efficient implementation of both searching and pruning strategies, and (3) easy-to-setup, versatile architecture that can be deployed for various purposes, ranging from scalable distributed computing to light-weight experiment conducted via interactive interface. In order to prove our point, we will introduce Optuna, an optimization software which is a culmination of our effort in the development of a next generation optimization software. As an optimization software designed with define-by-run principle, Optuna is particularly the first of its kind. We will present the design-techniques that became necessary in the development of the software that meets the above criteria, and demonstrate the power of our new design through experimental results and real world applications. Our software is available under the MIT license (https://github.com/pfnet/optuna/).
本研究的目的是为下一代超参数优化软件引入新的设计准则。我们提出的标准包括:(1)允许用户动态构建参数搜索空间的运行定义API,(2)搜索和修剪策略的有效实现,以及(3)易于设置的通用架构,可以部署用于各种目的,从可扩展的分布式计算到通过交互界面进行的轻量级实验。为了证明我们的观点,我们将介绍Optuna,这是一款优化软件,它是我们在开发下一代优化软件方面努力的成果。Optuna作为一款采用逐运行定义原则设计的优化软件,在同类软件中独领有。我们将介绍在开发满足上述标准的软件时所必需的设计技术,并通过实验结果和实际应用来展示我们的新设计的力量。我们的软件在MIT许可下可用(https://github.com/pfnet/optuna/)。
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引用次数: 2524
Carousel Ads Optimization in Yahoo Gemini Native Carousel广告优化在雅虎双子座原生
M. Aharon, O. Somekh, Avi Shahar, Assaf Singer, Baruch Trayvas, Hadas Vogel, Dobrislav Dobrev
Yahoo's native advertising (also known as Gemini native) serves billions of ad impressions daily, reaching a yearly run-rate of many hundred of millions USD. Driving Gemini native models for predicting both click probability (pCTR) and conversion probability (pCONV) is OFFSET - a feature enhanced collaborative-filtering (CF) based event prediction algorithm. The predicted pCTRs are then used in Gemini native auctions to determine which ads to present for each serving event. A fast growing segment of Gemini native is Carousel ads that include several cards (or assets) which are used to populate several slots within the ad. Since Carousel ad slots are not symmetrical and some are more conspicuous than others, it is beneficial to render assets to slots in a way that maximizes revenue. In this work we present a post-auction successive elimination based approach for ranking assets according to their click trough rate (CTR) and render the carousel accordingly, placing higher CTR assets in more conspicuous slots. After a successful online bucket showing 8.6% CTR and 4.3% CPM (or revenue) lifts over a control bucket that uses predefined advertisers assets-to-slots mapping, the carousel asset optimization (CAO) system was pushed to production and is serving all Gemini native traffic since. A few months after CAO deployment, we have already measured an almost 40% increase in carousel ads revenue. Moreover, the entire revenue growth is related to CAO traffic increase due to additional advertiser demand, which demonstrates a high advertisers' satisfaction of the product.
雅虎的原生广告(也被称为Gemini native)每天提供数十亿次的广告印象,年运行率达到数亿美元。驱动Gemini原生模型预测点击概率(pCTR)和转换概率(pCONV)的是OFFSET——一种基于特征增强协同过滤(CF)的事件预测算法。然后将预测的pctr用于Gemini本地拍卖,以确定为每个服务事件呈现哪些广告。双子座本地的一个快速增长的细分是Carousel广告,它包含几张卡(或资产),用于填充广告中的几个插槽。由于旋转木马广告插口不是对称的,有些插口比其他插口更显眼,所以以最大化收益的方式将资产呈现给插口是有益的。在这项工作中,我们提出了一种基于拍卖后连续淘汰的方法,根据点击率(CTR)对资产进行排名,并相应地呈现旋转木马,将更高的CTR资产放在更显眼的位置。在一个成功的在线桶显示8.6%的点击率和4.3%的CPM(或收入)比使用预定义广告商资产到插槽映射的控制桶提高之后,carousel资产优化(CAO)系统被投入生产,并从那时起为所有Gemini本地流量提供服务。在CAO部署几个月后,我们已经发现旋转木马广告收入增长了近40%。此外,整个收入的增长与CAO流量的增加有关,这是由于广告商的额外需求,这表明广告商对产品的满意度很高。
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引用次数: 5
Earth Observations from a New Generation of Geostationary Satellites 新一代地球同步卫星的地球观测
R. Nemani
The latest generation of geostationary satellites carry sensors such as the Advanced Baseline Imager (GOES-16/17) and the Advanced Himawari Imager (Himawari-8/9) that closely mimic the spatial and spectral characteristics of widely used polar orbiting sensors such as EOS/MODIS. More importantly, they provide observations at 1-5-15 minute intervals, instead of twice a day from MODIS, offering unprecedented opportunities for monitoring large parts of the Earth. In addition to serving the needs of weather forecasting, these observations offer new and exciting opportunities in managing solar power, fighting wildfires, and tracking air pollution. Creation of actionable information in near realtime from these data streams is a challenge that is best addressed through collaborative efforts among the industry, academia and government agencies.
最新一代地球静止卫星携带传感器,如先进基线成像仪(GOES-16/17)和先进Himawari成像仪(Himawari-8/9),这些传感器密切模仿广泛使用的极轨传感器(如EOS/MODIS)的空间和光谱特征。更重要的是,它们每隔1-5-15分钟提供一次观测,而不是MODIS每天两次,为监测地球的大部分地区提供了前所未有的机会。除了满足天气预报的需要外,这些观测还为管理太阳能、扑灭野火和跟踪空气污染提供了令人兴奋的新机会。从这些数据流中创建近乎实时的可操作信息是一项挑战,最好通过行业、学术界和政府机构之间的合作努力来解决。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Proceedings of the 25th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining
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