In this paper we analyze the role of macroeconomic and financial determinants in explaining stock market volatilities in the U.S. market. Both implied and realized volatility are computed model-free and decomposed into positive and negative components, thereby allowing us to compute directional volatility risk premia. We capture the behaviour of each component of implied volatility and risk premium in relation to their different determinants. The negative implied volatility appears to be linked more towards financial conditions variables such as uncertainty and geopolitical risk indexes, whereas positive implied volatility is driven more by macro variables such as inflation and GDP. There is a clear shift in importance from macro towards financial determinants moving from the pre towards the post financial crisis. A mixed frequency Granger causality approach uncovers causality relationships between volatilities and risk premia and macro variables and vice versa, a finding which is not detected with a conventional low frequency VAR model.
{"title":"The Determinants of the Model-Free Positive and Negative Volatilities","authors":"Mattia Bevilacqua, D. Morelli, R. Tunaru","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3298720","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3298720","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we analyze the role of macroeconomic and financial determinants in explaining stock market volatilities in the U.S. market. Both implied and realized volatility are computed model-free and decomposed into positive and negative components, thereby allowing us to compute directional volatility risk premia. We capture the behaviour of each component of implied volatility and risk premium in relation to their different determinants. The negative implied volatility appears to be linked more towards financial conditions variables such as uncertainty and geopolitical risk indexes, whereas positive implied volatility is driven more by macro variables such as inflation and GDP. There is a clear shift in importance from macro towards financial determinants moving from the pre towards the post financial crisis. A mixed frequency Granger causality approach uncovers causality relationships between volatilities and risk premia and macro variables and vice versa, a finding which is not detected with a conventional low frequency VAR model.","PeriodicalId":187811,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Risk (Topic)","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131201890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Persistence risk is an endogenous source of risk that arises when a rational agent learns about the length of business cycles. Persistence risk is positive during recessions and negative during expansions. This asymmetry, which solely results from learning about persistence, causes expected returns, return volatility, and the price of risk to rise during recessions. Persistence risk predicts future excess returns, particularly at 3- to 7-year horizons. Its predictability is strongest around business-cycle peaks and troughs. We confirm the model’s predictions in the data and provide evidence that persistence risk is priced in financial markets.Received October 13, 2017; editorial decision September 19, 2018 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.
持久性风险是一种内生的风险来源，当理性主体了解到商业周期的长度时，就会产生这种风险。持续风险在衰退期间为正，在扩张期间为负。这种不对称，完全源于对持久性的学习，导致预期回报、回报波动性和风险价格在衰退期间上升。持续性风险预测未来的超额回报，尤其是3至7年的超额回报。它的可预测性在商业周期的高峰和低谷时最强。我们在数据中证实了模型的预测，并提供了持续风险在金融市场中定价的证据。2017年10月13日收稿;编辑决定2018年9月19日编辑:Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh作者们提供了一份互联网附录，可以在牛津大学出版社的网站上找到，就在最终发表论文的链接旁边。
{"title":"Asset Pricing with Persistence Risk","authors":"D. Andrei, M. Hasler, A. Jeanneret","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3032238","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3032238","url":null,"abstract":"Persistence risk is an endogenous source of risk that arises when a rational agent learns about the length of business cycles. Persistence risk is positive during recessions and negative during expansions. This asymmetry, which solely results from learning about persistence, causes expected returns, return volatility, and the price of risk to rise during recessions. Persistence risk predicts future excess returns, particularly at 3- to 7-year horizons. Its predictability is strongest around business-cycle peaks and troughs. We confirm the model’s predictions in the data and provide evidence that persistence risk is priced in financial markets.Received October 13, 2017; editorial decision September 19, 2018 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.","PeriodicalId":187811,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Risk (Topic)","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130630553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The proposed of this paper is to determine the informative content of the cash flows related to the earnings of the process of explaining the firm's risk. The risk proxies used are Mark-to-Book, Market Beta, financial leverage and insolvency risk. The models are solved by the ordinary least square (OLS) using the panel data technique. The population of this study involves companies listed on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange in the period from 2004 to 2012. The evidence for firms listed in the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange indicates that the Cash Flow Statement shows an additional informative content to the earnings. The operating, investing, and financing cash flows exhibit a differential effect for the different risk proxy; however, the investment cash flows predominate in the risk market.
{"title":"Informative Content of Cash Flows in the Analysis of Risk","authors":"D. D. Terreno, Silvana Andrea Sattler","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3252230","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3252230","url":null,"abstract":"The proposed of this paper is to determine the informative content of the cash flows related to the earnings of the process of explaining the firm's risk. The risk proxies used are Mark-to-Book, Market Beta, financial leverage and insolvency risk. The models are solved by the ordinary least square (OLS) using the panel data technique. The population of this study involves companies listed on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange in the period from 2004 to 2012. The evidence for firms listed in the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange indicates that the Cash Flow Statement shows an additional informative content to the earnings. The operating, investing, and financing cash flows exhibit a differential effect for the different risk proxy; however, the investment cash flows predominate in the risk market.","PeriodicalId":187811,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Risk (Topic)","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124071862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper reveals a novel way of constructing the option implied RX and HML_FX risk factors by utilizing the full cross-section of the 45 G10 cross-rate options. The option implied carry factors, IEP^{2,ZC}, are highly profitable strategies that surprisingly earn both positive carry and positive spot price contribution and stochastically dominate the traditional HML_FX. Moreover, the changes of 6m-1m variance risk premium slope of implied dollar factor, IEP^1 have predictive power on both IEP^{2,ZC} 's and HML_FX 's returns. We conclude the implied eigenportfolios to contain information to both improve the profitability of carry strategies via allocation and via predicting the strategy related risks.
{"title":"Information Content of Option Implied Eigenportfolios and Their Variance Risk Premium Sensitivities in G10 Currencies","authors":"Jari-Pekka Heinonen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3228137","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3228137","url":null,"abstract":"This paper reveals a novel way of constructing the option implied RX and HML_FX risk factors by utilizing the full cross-section of the 45 G10 cross-rate options. The option implied carry factors, IEP^{2,ZC}, are highly profitable strategies that surprisingly earn both positive carry and positive spot price contribution and stochastically dominate the traditional HML_FX. Moreover, the changes of 6m-1m variance risk premium slope of implied dollar factor, IEP^1 have predictive power on both IEP^{2,ZC} 's and HML_FX 's returns. We conclude the implied eigenportfolios to contain information to both improve the profitability of carry strategies via allocation and via predicting the strategy related risks.","PeriodicalId":187811,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Risk (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131089705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates two risk-management techniques originally created for stock market momentum strategies, i.e. a) constant volatility targeting (scaling) and b) the implementation of stop-losses in the cross-section of portfolio components. It applies them to momentum strategies in currency markets and compares their effectiveness. It finds that constant volatility targeting (scaling) has no beneficial effect. In fact, detailed analysis suggests that it is a method uniquely suited to stock market momentum. Stop-losses are also far less useful than in stock markets. Finally, it suggests that not macroeconomic risk factors, but limits to arbitrage (stemming from high idiosyncratic volatility) are a potential source of currency momentum’s high returns.
{"title":"Managing the Risk of Currency Momentum Strategies","authors":"Felix Dietrich","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3222699","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3222699","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates two risk-management techniques originally created for stock market momentum strategies, i.e. a) constant volatility targeting (scaling) and b) the implementation of stop-losses in the cross-section of portfolio components. It applies them to momentum strategies in currency markets and compares their effectiveness. It finds that constant volatility targeting (scaling) has no beneficial effect. In fact, detailed analysis suggests that it is a method uniquely suited to stock market momentum. Stop-losses are also far less useful than in stock markets. Finally, it suggests that not macroeconomic risk factors, but limits to arbitrage (stemming from high idiosyncratic volatility) are a potential source of currency momentum’s high returns.","PeriodicalId":187811,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Risk (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115482972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract In actuarial science, collective risk models, in which the aggregate claim amount of a portfolio is defined in terms of random sums, play a crucial role. In these models, it is common to assume that the number of claims and their amounts are independent, even if this might not always be the case. We consider collective risk models with different dependence structures. Due to the importance of such risk models in an actuarial setting, we first investigate a collective risk model with dependence involving the family of multivariate mixed Erlang distributions. Other models based on mixtures involving bivariate and multivariate copulas in a more general setting are then presented. These different structures allow to link the number of claims to each claim amount, and to quantify the aggregate claim loss. Then, we use Archimedean and hierarchical Archimedean copulas in collective risk models, to model the dependence between the claim number random variable and the claim amount random variables involved in the random sum. Such dependence structures allow us to derive a computational methodology for the assessment of the aggregate claim amount. While being very flexible, this methodology is easy to implement, and can easily fit more complicated hierarchical structures.
{"title":"Collective Risk Models with Dependence","authors":"Hélène Cossette, É. Marceau, Itre Mtalai","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3104912","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3104912","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In actuarial science, collective risk models, in which the aggregate claim amount of a portfolio is defined in terms of random sums, play a crucial role. In these models, it is common to assume that the number of claims and their amounts are independent, even if this might not always be the case. We consider collective risk models with different dependence structures. Due to the importance of such risk models in an actuarial setting, we first investigate a collective risk model with dependence involving the family of multivariate mixed Erlang distributions. Other models based on mixtures involving bivariate and multivariate copulas in a more general setting are then presented. These different structures allow to link the number of claims to each claim amount, and to quantify the aggregate claim loss. Then, we use Archimedean and hierarchical Archimedean copulas in collective risk models, to model the dependence between the claim number random variable and the claim amount random variables involved in the random sum. Such dependence structures allow us to derive a computational methodology for the assessment of the aggregate claim amount. While being very flexible, this methodology is easy to implement, and can easily fit more complicated hierarchical structures.","PeriodicalId":187811,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Risk (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134243500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We propose a dynamic structural model of a loan portfolio, secured by collaterals. Contrary to existing dynamic models, our model takes into account the time-dependence of the debtors' wealth and the fact that, due to defaults, the financial health within the portfolio improves in comparison to the population. As such, the model replicates the empirically observed decrease of loans' default rates in time. In the model, the debtors' resources, insufficiency of which is assumed to cause defaults, and the prices of the collaterals, determining the losses given default (LGD), depend on common and individual factors. The individual factors follow an AR(1) vector process with general residuals, the common factors are general, possibly dependent on exogenous variables. We show that the mapping transforming the common factors into the conditional probabilities of default (PD) and the LGDs is one-to-one monotonous continuously differentiable. As this transformation is not analytically tractable, we propose an approximation technique which is convergent with polynomial complexity. To demonstrate a possible application of our model, we formulate a decision problem for optimal choice of loan candidates. Further, we discuss estimation of the model's parameters, we suggest ways of modelling heterogenous portfolios, and we give arguments supporting empirical validity of the model.
{"title":"Multi-Period Merton-Vasicek-Pykhtin Model","authors":"M. Šmíd, J. Dufek, J. Vorísek","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3138545","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3138545","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a dynamic structural model of a loan portfolio, secured by collaterals. Contrary to existing dynamic models, our model takes into account the time-dependence of the debtors' wealth and the fact that, due to defaults, the financial health within the portfolio improves in comparison to the population. As such, the model replicates the empirically observed decrease of loans' default rates in time. \u0000In the model, the debtors' resources, insufficiency of which is assumed to cause defaults, and the prices of the collaterals, determining the losses given default (LGD), depend on common and individual factors. The individual factors follow an AR(1) vector process with general residuals, the common factors are general, possibly dependent on exogenous variables. \u0000We show that the mapping transforming the common factors into the conditional probabilities of default (PD) and the LGDs is one-to-one monotonous continuously differentiable. As this transformation is not analytically tractable, we propose an approximation technique which is convergent with polynomial complexity. \u0000To demonstrate a possible application of our model, we formulate a decision problem for optimal choice of loan candidates. Further, we discuss estimation of the model's parameters, we suggest ways of modelling heterogenous portfolios, and we give arguments supporting empirical validity of the model.","PeriodicalId":187811,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Risk (Topic)","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127261881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper we propose a new risk decomposition technique. Taking an example of a portfolio of assets that can be decomposed into sub portfolios and also represented using a factor model, investment professionals have access to tools that can represent risk from three different perspectives using standard techniques of risk decomposition: (a) assets, (b) sub portfolios and (c) factors. The SD3 model, which we are going to describe in this paper, aims to decompose the risk of the portfolio using 2 or 3 dimensions simultaneously, thereby providing a tool for a more comprehensive view and understanding of the risk drivers for a portfolio.
{"title":"M-SD3 Model: A Multi-Dimensional Risk Decomposition","authors":"D. Mignacca","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3172726","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3172726","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we propose a new risk decomposition technique. Taking an example of a portfolio of assets that can be decomposed into sub portfolios and also represented using a factor model, investment professionals have access to tools that can represent risk from three different perspectives using standard techniques of risk decomposition: (a) assets, (b) sub portfolios and (c) factors. The SD3 model, which we are going to describe in this paper, aims to decompose the risk of the portfolio using 2 or 3 dimensions simultaneously, thereby providing a tool for a more comprehensive view and understanding of the risk drivers for a portfolio.","PeriodicalId":187811,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Risk (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134545810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we propose a Fenchel duality approach to study the minimization problem of the shortfall risk. We consider a general increasing and strictly convex loss function, which may be more general than the situation of convex risk measures usually assumed in the literature. We first translate the associated stochastic optimization problem to an equivalent static optimization problem, and then obtain the explicit structure of the optimal randomized test for both complete and incomplete markets. For the incomplete market case, to the best of our knowledge, we obtain for the first time the explicit randomized test, while previous literature only established the existence through the supermartingale optional decomposition approach. We also solve the shortfall risk minimization problem for an insider through the enlargement of filtrations approach.
{"title":"Shortfall Risk Through Fenchel Duality","authors":"Zhenyu Cui, Jun Deng","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3128201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3128201","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we propose a Fenchel duality approach to study the minimization problem of the shortfall risk. We consider a general increasing and strictly convex loss function, which may be more general than the situation of convex risk measures usually assumed in the literature. We first translate the associated stochastic optimization problem to an equivalent static optimization problem, and then obtain the explicit structure of the optimal randomized test for both complete and incomplete markets. For the incomplete market case, to the best of our knowledge, we obtain for the first time the explicit randomized test, while previous literature only established the existence through the supermartingale optional decomposition approach. We also solve the shortfall risk minimization problem for an insider through the enlargement of filtrations approach.","PeriodicalId":187811,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Risk (Topic)","volume":"101 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115162521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We obtain survey responses from 168 North American CFOs and interview 16 of them to understand (i) how foreign currency exposure is measured and reported inside and outside the firm; (ii) how goal setting, performance evaluation and compensation of managers reflect exchange rate impacts, (iii) what specific currency exposures firms hedge and why? To develop expected answers to these questions, we provide a series of exhibits of hypothetical transactions at, and financial reports for, the foreign subsidiary. We benchmark these theoretical insights against the survey responses and uncover several questionable managerial choices. First, although no performance measure is insulated from a currency impact, a large majority of senior managers and board members only review translated USD data, especially cash flows, that are fraught with significant measurement error. Second, companies are more likely to communicate, both inside and outside, the currency impact on net income and revenue but not on operating costs, operating cash flows and the foreign subsidiary’s balance sheet. Hence, decision makers, especially investors, will be unable to readily isolate the portion of the firm’s performance attributable to currency changes. Third, many of the current practices used to (i) set budgeted exchange rates for planning; (ii) hold local managers accountable for currency fluctuations; and (iii) manage foreign currency risk are inconsistent both with one another and with theory. We hope our work furthers the understanding of currency exposure among students, academics and practitioners.
{"title":"Foreign Currency: Accounting, Communication and Management of Risks","authors":"T. Harris, Shivaram Rajgopal","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3031831","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3031831","url":null,"abstract":"We obtain survey responses from 168 North American CFOs and interview 16 of them to understand (i) how foreign currency exposure is measured and reported inside and outside the firm; (ii) how goal setting, performance evaluation and compensation of managers reflect exchange rate impacts, (iii) what specific currency exposures firms hedge and why? To develop expected answers to these questions, we provide a series of exhibits of hypothetical transactions at, and financial reports for, the foreign subsidiary. We benchmark these theoretical insights against the survey responses and uncover several questionable managerial choices. First, although no performance measure is insulated from a currency impact, a large majority of senior managers and board members only review translated USD data, especially cash flows, that are fraught with significant measurement error. Second, companies are more likely to communicate, both inside and outside, the currency impact on net income and revenue but not on operating costs, operating cash flows and the foreign subsidiary’s balance sheet. Hence, decision makers, especially investors, will be unable to readily isolate the portion of the firm’s performance attributable to currency changes. Third, many of the current practices used to (i) set budgeted exchange rates for planning; (ii) hold local managers accountable for currency fluctuations; and (iii) manage foreign currency risk are inconsistent both with one another and with theory. We hope our work furthers the understanding of currency exposure among students, academics and practitioners.","PeriodicalId":187811,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometric Modeling: Capital Markets - Risk (Topic)","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126628031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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