Using a sample of the 48 contiguous US states, we consider the problem of forecasting state governments’ revenues and expenditures in real time using models that feature mixed-frequency data. We find that mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions that predict low-frequency fiscal outcomes using high-frequency macroeconomic and financial market data outperform traditional fiscal forecasting models in both a relative and an absolute sense. We also consider an application of forecasting fiscal outcomes in the face of the economic uncertainty induced by the coronavirus pandemic. Overall, we show that MIDAS regressions provide a simple tool for predicting fiscal outcomes in real time.
{"title":"Real-time Forecasts of State and Local Government Budgets with an Application to the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"Eric Ghysels, Fotis Grigoris, Nazire Özkan","doi":"10.1086/721844","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/721844","url":null,"abstract":"Using a sample of the 48 contiguous US states, we consider the problem of forecasting state governments’ revenues and expenditures in real time using models that feature mixed-frequency data. We find that mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions that predict low-frequency fiscal outcomes using high-frequency macroeconomic and financial market data outperform traditional fiscal forecasting models in both a relative and an absolute sense. We also consider an application of forecasting fiscal outcomes in the face of the economic uncertainty induced by the coronavirus pandemic. Overall, we show that MIDAS regressions provide a simple tool for predicting fiscal outcomes in real time.","PeriodicalId":18983,"journal":{"name":"National Tax Journal","volume":"75 1","pages":"731 - 763"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41833266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper documents the extent and growth of gig work in the United States using Internal Revenue Service tax records. We discuss advantages of using tax data to learn about gig work and address several important methodological considerations. We find that around 12 percent of the 2018 workforce participated in contract-based gig work. Apart from the emergence of platform-based transportation work — which typically is a secondary earnings source for participants — the overall share of the workforce relying on gig work as a primary job has remained relatively constant over time. We document key differences in the work done by high- and low-income individuals.
{"title":"Is Gig Work Changing the Labor Market? Key Lessons from Tax Data","authors":"A. Garin, Emilie Jackson, Dmitri K. Koustas","doi":"10.1086/722139","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/722139","url":null,"abstract":"This paper documents the extent and growth of gig work in the United States using Internal Revenue Service tax records. We discuss advantages of using tax data to learn about gig work and address several important methodological considerations. We find that around 12 percent of the 2018 workforce participated in contract-based gig work. Apart from the emergence of platform-based transportation work — which typically is a secondary earnings source for participants — the overall share of the workforce relying on gig work as a primary job has remained relatively constant over time. We document key differences in the work done by high- and low-income individuals.","PeriodicalId":18983,"journal":{"name":"National Tax Journal","volume":"75 1","pages":"791 - 816"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49014199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper measures the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on the accuracy of baseline federal revenue forecasts. We build a simple stochastic model of gross domestic product, stock prices, and employment over time. Using a cloud-based microsimulation model, we simulate individual income and payroll tax revenues for 5,000 realizations of the macroeconomic variables. We find a large amount of uncertainty in revenue projections that grows over time. We find a small downward bias from using a single baseline to predict revenues, but it never exceeds 1 percent of revenues over the 10-year budget horizon.
{"title":"The Implications of Uncertain Economic Paths for Revenue Projections","authors":"Leonard Burman, Benjamin R. Page, David Weiner","doi":"10.1086/722164","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/722164","url":null,"abstract":"This paper measures the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on the accuracy of baseline federal revenue forecasts. We build a simple stochastic model of gross domestic product, stock prices, and employment over time. Using a cloud-based microsimulation model, we simulate individual income and payroll tax revenues for 5,000 realizations of the macroeconomic variables. We find a large amount of uncertainty in revenue projections that grows over time. We find a small downward bias from using a single baseline to predict revenues, but it never exceeds 1 percent of revenues over the 10-year budget horizon.","PeriodicalId":18983,"journal":{"name":"National Tax Journal","volume":"75 1","pages":"681 - 709"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42089970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Skepticism exists regarding the revenue potential of a subnational value-added tax (VAT). India is one of only three countries to embrace a subnational VAT, and it did so between 2003 and 2008. We analyze the impact of this historic policy reform on revenue productivity and find that implementation of the tax yields a 13 percent increase in sales tax revenue for India’s more developed states. This analysis is unique in providing empirical evidence of a revenue impact of a major tax policy reform for a subset of subnational governments in a developing country.
{"title":"The Revenue Productivity of India’s Subnational VAT","authors":"A. Sen, S. Wallace","doi":"10.1086/721687","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/721687","url":null,"abstract":"Skepticism exists regarding the revenue potential of a subnational value-added tax (VAT). India is one of only three countries to embrace a subnational VAT, and it did so between 2003 and 2008. We analyze the impact of this historic policy reform on revenue productivity and find that implementation of the tax yields a 13 percent increase in sales tax revenue for India’s more developed states. This analysis is unique in providing empirical evidence of a revenue impact of a major tax policy reform for a subset of subnational governments in a developing country.","PeriodicalId":18983,"journal":{"name":"National Tax Journal","volume":"75 1","pages":"711 - 729"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47893420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We investigate the French 2012 financial transaction tax (FTT) and find robust evidence for anticipation effects before the implementation date. Controlling for short-run effects, we only find weak evidence for a long-run reduction in trading activity. Thus, the main impact of the French FTT on trading activity is short-run. In line with liquidity clientele effects, we find a more potent effect for low-liquidity stocks and a reallocation of trading to high-liquidity stocks from the Supplemental Liquidity Provider (SLP) program. Finally, we find weak evidence for a persistent volatility reduction but no indication of a significant FTT impact on price efficiency.
{"title":"The Impact of Financial Transaction Taxes on Stock Markets: Short-Run Effects, Long-Run Effects, and Reallocation of Trading Activity","authors":"Sebastian Eichfelder, Mona Noack, Felix Noth","doi":"10.1086/720406","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/720406","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the French 2012 financial transaction tax (FTT) and find robust evidence for anticipation effects before the implementation date. Controlling for short-run effects, we only find weak evidence for a long-run reduction in trading activity. Thus, the main impact of the French FTT on trading activity is short-run. In line with liquidity clientele effects, we find a more potent effect for low-liquidity stocks and a reallocation of trading to high-liquidity stocks from the Supplemental Liquidity Provider (SLP) program. Finally, we find weak evidence for a persistent volatility reduction but no indication of a significant FTT impact on price efficiency.","PeriodicalId":18983,"journal":{"name":"National Tax Journal","volume":"75 1","pages":"539 - 569"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48070643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
C. Bowen, V. Bryant, Leonard Burman, Surachai Khitatrakun, R. McClelland, Livia Mucciolo, Madeline Pickens, Aaron R. Williams
Tax data are invaluable for research, but privacy concerns severely limit access. Although the US Internal Revenue Service produces a public-use file (PUF), improved technology and the proliferation of individual data have made it increasingly difficult to protect. Synthetic data are an alternative that reproduce the statistical properties of administrative data without revealing individual taxpayer information. This paper evaluates the quality and safety of the first fully synthetic PUF and demonstrates its performance in tax model microsimulations. The synthetic PUF could also be used to develop and debug statistical programs that could then be safely run on confidential data via a validation server.
{"title":"Synthetic Individual Income Tax Data: Promises and Challenges","authors":"C. Bowen, V. Bryant, Leonard Burman, Surachai Khitatrakun, R. McClelland, Livia Mucciolo, Madeline Pickens, Aaron R. Williams","doi":"10.1086/722094","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/722094","url":null,"abstract":"Tax data are invaluable for research, but privacy concerns severely limit access. Although the US Internal Revenue Service produces a public-use file (PUF), improved technology and the proliferation of individual data have made it increasingly difficult to protect. Synthetic data are an alternative that reproduce the statistical properties of administrative data without revealing individual taxpayer information. This paper evaluates the quality and safety of the first fully synthetic PUF and demonstrates its performance in tax model microsimulations. The synthetic PUF could also be used to develop and debug statistical programs that could then be safely run on confidential data via a validation server.","PeriodicalId":18983,"journal":{"name":"National Tax Journal","volume":"75 1","pages":"767 - 790"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47593409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
By stimulating consumer spending, unconditional cash transfers may increase price levels. In Alaska, residents have received an unconditional cash transfer every year since 1982: the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend. We measure the impact of the dividend using a synthetic control method, which matches Alaska with similar states prior to the introduction of the dividend. The method does not find a good control group for Alaska, likely because of unusual inflation dynamics around 1982. While there is suggestive evidence of positive inflation and price effects, much uncertainty remains regarding the causal effect of unconditional cash transfers on Alaskan inflation and prices.
{"title":"Universal Cash Transfers and Inflation","authors":"Damon Jones, I. Marinescu","doi":"10.1086/720770","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/720770","url":null,"abstract":"By stimulating consumer spending, unconditional cash transfers may increase price levels. In Alaska, residents have received an unconditional cash transfer every year since 1982: the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend. We measure the impact of the dividend using a synthetic control method, which matches Alaska with similar states prior to the introduction of the dividend. The method does not find a good control group for Alaska, likely because of unusual inflation dynamics around 1982. While there is suggestive evidence of positive inflation and price effects, much uncertainty remains regarding the causal effect of unconditional cash transfers on Alaskan inflation and prices.","PeriodicalId":18983,"journal":{"name":"National Tax Journal","volume":"75 1","pages":"627 - 653"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45881079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper presents a novel experimental method to measure the propensity to evade taxes that overcomes sensitivity bias. Drawn from political science research, the method uses list experiments to estimate the prevalence of tax evasion in different population groups. Using this method, we found that 13 percent of the Canadian population admitted to evading income taxes and 29 percent admitted to evading consumption taxes. These estimates are comparable to estimates based on audit data. They provide a new source of reliable data about evasion, which can be combined with measures of psychological drivers of evasion at the individual level.
{"title":"Lists: A Novel Experimental Method to Measure Tax Evasion","authors":"Antoine Genest-Grégoire, L. Godbout, J. Guay","doi":"10.1086/719469","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/719469","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a novel experimental method to measure the propensity to evade taxes that overcomes sensitivity bias. Drawn from political science research, the method uses list experiments to estimate the prevalence of tax evasion in different population groups. Using this method, we found that 13 percent of the Canadian population admitted to evading income taxes and 29 percent admitted to evading consumption taxes. These estimates are comparable to estimates based on audit data. They provide a new source of reliable data about evasion, which can be combined with measures of psychological drivers of evasion at the individual level.","PeriodicalId":18983,"journal":{"name":"National Tax Journal","volume":"75 1","pages":"517 - 537"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44280820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Two timely poverty measures were developed to monitor economic conditions in the pandemic. One uses reports to a global income question on the Current Population Survey (CPS). A second uses the CPS to impute poverty based on demographic and employment variables. We evaluate the measures in the context of recent changes to the Child Tax Credit (CTC), arguing that the reports are preferable to imputations. Claims that child poverty was sharply lower when Advance CTC payments were made are overstated. The best evidence suggests poverty changed little during that period, apparently partly due to an employment decline among low-skilled workers with children.
{"title":"Real-Time Poverty, Material Well-Being, and the Child Tax Credit","authors":"Jeehoon Han, Bruce D. Meyer, James X. Sullivan","doi":"10.1086/722137","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/722137","url":null,"abstract":"Two timely poverty measures were developed to monitor economic conditions in the pandemic. One uses reports to a global income question on the Current Population Survey (CPS). A second uses the CPS to impute poverty based on demographic and employment variables. We evaluate the measures in the context of recent changes to the Child Tax Credit (CTC), arguing that the reports are preferable to imputations. Claims that child poverty was sharply lower when Advance CTC payments were made are overstated. The best evidence suggests poverty changed little during that period, apparently partly due to an employment decline among low-skilled workers with children.","PeriodicalId":18983,"journal":{"name":"National Tax Journal","volume":"75 1","pages":"817 - 846"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41531567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We reassess the antipoverty effects of the earned income tax credit (EITC) using unique data linking the Current Population Survey (CPS) Annual Social and Economic Supplement to Internal Revenue Service (IRS) data for the same individuals spanning tax years 2005–2016. We compare EITC benefits from standard simulators to administrative EITC payments and find that the antipoverty estimates of the EITC are countercyclical in terms of number of recipients, with roughly four million people of all ages and 1.9 million children lifted from after-tax poverty in a typical year. We outline how researchers using public data can address discrepancies between survey estimates of the EITC and administrative tax records.
{"title":"The Antipoverty Impact of the EITC: New Estimates from Survey and Administrative Tax Records","authors":"Maggie R. Jones, James P. Ziliak","doi":"10.1086/720614","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/720614","url":null,"abstract":"We reassess the antipoverty effects of the earned income tax credit (EITC) using unique data linking the Current Population Survey (CPS) Annual Social and Economic Supplement to Internal Revenue Service (IRS) data for the same individuals spanning tax years 2005–2016. We compare EITC benefits from standard simulators to administrative EITC payments and find that the antipoverty estimates of the EITC are countercyclical in terms of number of recipients, with roughly four million people of all ages and 1.9 million children lifted from after-tax poverty in a typical year. We outline how researchers using public data can address discrepancies between survey estimates of the EITC and administrative tax records.","PeriodicalId":18983,"journal":{"name":"National Tax Journal","volume":"75 1","pages":"451 - 479"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44042467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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