{"title":"Droughts and Welfare in Afghanistan","authors":"Nishtha Kochhar, Erwin Knippenberg","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-10272","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10272","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":20284,"journal":{"name":"Policy Research Working Papers","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86751294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
George Alessandria, S. Khan, A. Khederlarian, C. Mix, Kim J. Ruhl
We study the aggregate effects of supply chain disruptions in the post-Pandemic period in a two-country heterogeneous-firm general equilibrium model with a rich set of supply chain frictions: shipping delays, fixed order costs, storage costs, uncertain delivery, and uncertain demand. These frictions lead firms to hold inventories that depend on the source of supply and these inventories influence price setting and are an input into production. We model aggregate shocks that capture the dynamics of the global economy in the crisis and recovery. We show that increases in shipping times are contractionary, raise prices and increase stockouts, particularly for goods intensive in delayed inputs. These effects are larger when inventories are already at low levels, as in the U.S. and the world since early in the Pandemic. We fit the model to the key features of the aggregate economy from 2020-2022 and estimate the aggregate effects of international and domestic supply disruptions. Our model predicts that the boost in output from the unwinding of restocking delays will be smaller than the contraction in output from the waning effects of stimulus in 2021.
{"title":"The Aggregate Effects of Global and Local Supply Chain Disruptions: 2020–2022","authors":"George Alessandria, S. Khan, A. Khederlarian, C. Mix, Kim J. Ruhl","doi":"10.3386/w30849","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w30849","url":null,"abstract":"We study the aggregate effects of supply chain disruptions in the post-Pandemic period in a two-country heterogeneous-firm general equilibrium model with a rich set of supply chain frictions: shipping delays, fixed order costs, storage costs, uncertain delivery, and uncertain demand. These frictions lead firms to hold inventories that depend on the source of supply and these inventories influence price setting and are an input into production. We model aggregate shocks that capture the dynamics of the global economy in the crisis and recovery. We show that increases in shipping times are contractionary, raise prices and increase stockouts, particularly for goods intensive in delayed inputs. These effects are larger when inventories are already at low levels, as in the U.S. and the world since early in the Pandemic. We fit the model to the key features of the aggregate economy from 2020-2022 and estimate the aggregate effects of international and domestic supply disruptions. Our model predicts that the boost in output from the unwinding of restocking delays will be smaller than the contraction in output from the waning effects of stimulus in 2021.","PeriodicalId":20284,"journal":{"name":"Policy Research Working Papers","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86353927","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Climate Change Regulations: Bank Lending and Real Effects","authors":"Faruk Miguel, Alvaro Pedraza, Claudia Ruiz-Ortega","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-10270","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10270","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":20284,"journal":{"name":"Policy Research Working Papers","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79903691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
T. Reed, Pereira López Mariana, Urrutia Arrieta Ana, L. Iacovone
{"title":"Cartels, Antitrust Enforcement, and Industry Performance: Evidence from Mexico","authors":"T. Reed, Pereira López Mariana, Urrutia Arrieta Ana, L. Iacovone","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-10269","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10269","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":20284,"journal":{"name":"Policy Research Working Papers","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85761710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Canavire Bacarreza Gustavo, de Ervin Lyliana Gayoso, Galeano Juan José, Baquero Juan Pablo
Abstract
摘要
{"title":"Understanding the Distributional Impacts of Increases in Fuel Prices on Poverty and Inequality in Paraguay","authors":"Canavire Bacarreza Gustavo, de Ervin Lyliana Gayoso, Galeano Juan José, Baquero Juan Pablo","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-10268","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10268","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract","PeriodicalId":20284,"journal":{"name":"Policy Research Working Papers","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84358285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Dreams and Barriers: Aspirations, Expectations, and Schooling Outcomes of Indonesian Students","authors":"Johnson Hillary C., Noël Muller","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-10267","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10267","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":20284,"journal":{"name":"Policy Research Working Papers","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88702528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Asli Demirguc-Kunt, Alvaro Pedraza, Fredy Pulga, Claudia Ruiz-Ortega
{"title":"Global Bank Lending under Climate Policy","authors":"Asli Demirguc-Kunt, Alvaro Pedraza, Fredy Pulga, Claudia Ruiz-Ortega","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-10266","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10266","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":20284,"journal":{"name":"Policy Research Working Papers","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88658216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Policy Options for Broadband Infrastructure Strategies: A Simulation Model for Affordable Universal Broadband in Africa","authors":"Oughton Edward J.","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-10263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10263","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":20284,"journal":{"name":"Policy Research Working Papers","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82609728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Basheer, T. Oommen, Masatsugu Takamatsu, Sachi Suzuki
{"title":"Machine Learning and Sensitivity Analysis Approach to Quantify Uncertainty in Landslide Susceptibility Mapping","authors":"M. Basheer, T. Oommen, Masatsugu Takamatsu, Sachi Suzuki","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-10264","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10264","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":20284,"journal":{"name":"Policy Research Working Papers","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82046013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Andrea Dall'olio, Tanja K. Goodwin, Martinez Licetti Martha, Alonso Soria Ana Cristina, M. Drozd, Jan Orlowski, Patiño Peñ Fausto, D. Sánchez-Navarro
{"title":"Are All State-Owned Enterprises Equal? A Taxonomy of Economic Activities to Assess SOE Presence in the Economy","authors":"Andrea Dall'olio, Tanja K. Goodwin, Martinez Licetti Martha, Alonso Soria Ana Cristina, M. Drozd, Jan Orlowski, Patiño Peñ Fausto, D. Sánchez-Navarro","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-10262","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10262","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":20284,"journal":{"name":"Policy Research Working Papers","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78196165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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