From Twitter to Facebook to Reddit, users have become accustomed to sharing the articles they read with friends or followers on their social networks. While previous work has modeled what these shared stories say about the user who shares them, the converse question remains unexplored: what can we learn about an article from the identities of its likely readers? To address this question, we model the content of news articles and blog posts by attributes of the people who are likely to share them. For example, many Twitter users describe themselves in a short profile, labeling themselves with phrases such as "vegetarian" or "liberal." By assuming that a user's labels correspond to topics in the articles he shares, we can learn a labeled dictionary from a training corpus of articles shared on Twitter. Thereafter, we can code any new document as a sparse non-negative linear combination of user labels, where we encourage correlated labels to appear together in the output via a structured sparsity penalty. Finally, we show that our approach yields a novel document representation that can be effectively used in many problem settings, from recommendation to modeling news dynamics. For example, while the top politics stories will change drastically from one month to the next, the "politics" label will still be there to describe them. We evaluate our model on millions of tweeted news articles and blog posts collected between September 2010 and September 2012, demonstrating that our approach is effective.
{"title":"Representing documents through their readers","authors":"Khalid El-Arini, Min Xu, E. Fox, Carlos Guestrin","doi":"10.1145/2487575.2487596","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2487575.2487596","url":null,"abstract":"From Twitter to Facebook to Reddit, users have become accustomed to sharing the articles they read with friends or followers on their social networks. While previous work has modeled what these shared stories say about the user who shares them, the converse question remains unexplored: what can we learn about an article from the identities of its likely readers? To address this question, we model the content of news articles and blog posts by attributes of the people who are likely to share them. For example, many Twitter users describe themselves in a short profile, labeling themselves with phrases such as \"vegetarian\" or \"liberal.\" By assuming that a user's labels correspond to topics in the articles he shares, we can learn a labeled dictionary from a training corpus of articles shared on Twitter. Thereafter, we can code any new document as a sparse non-negative linear combination of user labels, where we encourage correlated labels to appear together in the output via a structured sparsity penalty. Finally, we show that our approach yields a novel document representation that can be effectively used in many problem settings, from recommendation to modeling news dynamics. For example, while the top politics stories will change drastically from one month to the next, the \"politics\" label will still be there to describe them. We evaluate our model on millions of tweeted news articles and blog posts collected between September 2010 and September 2012, demonstrating that our approach is effective.","PeriodicalId":20472,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 19th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining","volume":"85-86 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73234605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fang Jin, Nathan Self, Parang Saraf, P. Butler, W. Wang, Naren Ramakrishnan
Financial markets are quite sensitive to unanticipated news and events. Identifying the effect of news on the market is a challenging task. In this demo, we present Forex-foreteller (FF) which mines news articles and makes forecasts about the movement of foreign currency markets. The system uses a combination of language models, topic clustering, and sentiment analysis to identify relevant news articles. These articles along with the historical stock index and currency exchange values are used in a linear regression model to make forecasts. The system has an interactive visualizer designed specifically for touch-sensitive devices which depicts forecasts along with the chronological news events and financial data used for making the forecasts.
{"title":"Forex-foreteller: currency trend modeling using news articles","authors":"Fang Jin, Nathan Self, Parang Saraf, P. Butler, W. Wang, Naren Ramakrishnan","doi":"10.1145/2487575.2487710","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2487575.2487710","url":null,"abstract":"Financial markets are quite sensitive to unanticipated news and events. Identifying the effect of news on the market is a challenging task. In this demo, we present Forex-foreteller (FF) which mines news articles and makes forecasts about the movement of foreign currency markets. The system uses a combination of language models, topic clustering, and sentiment analysis to identify relevant news articles. These articles along with the historical stock index and currency exchange values are used in a linear regression model to make forecasts. The system has an interactive visualizer designed specifically for touch-sensitive devices which depicts forecasts along with the chronological news events and financial data used for making the forecasts.","PeriodicalId":20472,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 19th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85653866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The junction tree approach, with applications in artificial intelligence, computer vision, machine learning, and statistics, is often used for computing posterior distributions in probabilistic graphical models. One of the key challenges associated with junction trees is computational, and several parallel computing technologies - including many-core processors - have been investigated to meet this challenge. Many-core processors (including GPUs) are now programmable, unfortunately their complexities make it hard to manually tune their parameters in order to optimize software performance. In this paper, we investigate a machine learning approach to minimize the execution time of parallel junction tree algorithms implemented on a GPU. By carefully allocating a GPU's threads to different parallel computing opportunities in a junction tree, and treating this thread allocation problem as a machine learning problem, we find in experiments that regression - specifically support vector regression - can substantially outperform manual optimization.
{"title":"Optimizing parallel belief propagation in junction treesusing regression","authors":"Lu Zheng, O. Mengshoel","doi":"10.1145/2487575.2487611","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2487575.2487611","url":null,"abstract":"The junction tree approach, with applications in artificial intelligence, computer vision, machine learning, and statistics, is often used for computing posterior distributions in probabilistic graphical models. One of the key challenges associated with junction trees is computational, and several parallel computing technologies - including many-core processors - have been investigated to meet this challenge. Many-core processors (including GPUs) are now programmable, unfortunately their complexities make it hard to manually tune their parameters in order to optimize software performance. In this paper, we investigate a machine learning approach to minimize the execution time of parallel junction tree algorithms implemented on a GPU. By carefully allocating a GPU's threads to different parallel computing opportunities in a junction tree, and treating this thread allocation problem as a machine learning problem, we find in experiments that regression - specifically support vector regression - can substantially outperform manual optimization.","PeriodicalId":20472,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 19th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining","volume":"57 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78165059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Social media is a platform for people to share and vote content. From the analysis of the social media data we found that users are quite inactive in rating/voting. For example, a user on average only votes 2 out of 100 accessed items. Traditional recommendation methods are mostly based on users' votes and thus can not cope with this situation. Based on the observation that the dwell time on an item may reflect the opinion of a user, we aim to enrich the user-vote matrix by converting the dwell time on items into users' ``pseudo votes'' and then help improve recommendation performance. However, it is challenging to correctly interpret the dwell time since many subjective human factors, e.g. user expectation, sensitivity to various item qualities, reading speed, are involved into the casual behavior of online reading. In psychology, it is assumed that people have choice threshold in decision making. The time spent on making decision reflects the decision maker's threshold. This idea inspires us to develop a View-Voting model, which can estimate how much the user likes the viewed item according to her dwell time, and thus make recommendations even if there is no voting data available. Finally, our experimental evaluation shows that the traditional rate-based recommendation's performance is greatly improved with the support of VV model.
{"title":"Silence is also evidence: interpreting dwell time for recommendation from psychological perspective","authors":"Peifeng Yin, Ping Luo, Wang-Chien Lee, Min Wang","doi":"10.1145/2487575.2487663","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2487575.2487663","url":null,"abstract":"Social media is a platform for people to share and vote content. From the analysis of the social media data we found that users are quite inactive in rating/voting. For example, a user on average only votes 2 out of 100 accessed items. Traditional recommendation methods are mostly based on users' votes and thus can not cope with this situation. Based on the observation that the dwell time on an item may reflect the opinion of a user, we aim to enrich the user-vote matrix by converting the dwell time on items into users' ``pseudo votes'' and then help improve recommendation performance. However, it is challenging to correctly interpret the dwell time since many subjective human factors, e.g. user expectation, sensitivity to various item qualities, reading speed, are involved into the casual behavior of online reading. In psychology, it is assumed that people have choice threshold in decision making. The time spent on making decision reflects the decision maker's threshold. This idea inspires us to develop a View-Voting model, which can estimate how much the user likes the viewed item according to her dwell time, and thus make recommendations even if there is no voting data available. Finally, our experimental evaluation shows that the traditional rate-based recommendation's performance is greatly improved with the support of VV model.","PeriodicalId":20472,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 19th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining","volume":"92 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73298605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we present a computationally efficient algorithm based on multiple instance learning for mapping informal settlements (slums) using very high-resolution remote sensing imagery. From remote sensing perspective, informal settlements share unique spatial characteristics that distinguish them from other urban structures like industrial, commercial, and formal residential settlements. However, regular pattern recognition and machine learning methods, which are predominantly single-instance or per-pixel classifiers, often fail to accurately map the informal settlements as they do not capture the complex spatial patterns. To overcome these limitations we employed a multiple instance based machine learning approach, where groups of contiguous pixels (image patches) are modeled as generated by a Gaussian distribution. We have conducted several experiments on very high-resolution satellite imagery, representing four unique geographic regions across the world. Our method showed consistent improvement in accurately identifying informal settlements.
{"title":"Gaussian multiple instance learning approach for mapping the slums of the world using very high resolution imagery","authors":"Ranga Raju Vatsavai","doi":"10.1145/2487575.2488210","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2487575.2488210","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we present a computationally efficient algorithm based on multiple instance learning for mapping informal settlements (slums) using very high-resolution remote sensing imagery. From remote sensing perspective, informal settlements share unique spatial characteristics that distinguish them from other urban structures like industrial, commercial, and formal residential settlements. However, regular pattern recognition and machine learning methods, which are predominantly single-instance or per-pixel classifiers, often fail to accurately map the informal settlements as they do not capture the complex spatial patterns. To overcome these limitations we employed a multiple instance based machine learning approach, where groups of contiguous pixels (image patches) are modeled as generated by a Gaussian distribution. We have conducted several experiments on very high-resolution satellite imagery, representing four unique geographic regions across the world. Our method showed consistent improvement in accurately identifying informal settlements.","PeriodicalId":20472,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 19th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74479235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
H. B. McMahan, Gary Holt, D. Sculley, Michael Young, D. Ebner, Julian Grady, Lan Nie, Todd Phillips, Eugene Davydov, D. Golovin, S. Chikkerur, Dan Liu, M. Wattenberg, A. M. Hrafnkelsson, T. Boulos, J. Kubica
Predicting ad click-through rates (CTR) is a massive-scale learning problem that is central to the multi-billion dollar online advertising industry. We present a selection of case studies and topics drawn from recent experiments in the setting of a deployed CTR prediction system. These include improvements in the context of traditional supervised learning based on an FTRL-Proximal online learning algorithm (which has excellent sparsity and convergence properties) and the use of per-coordinate learning rates. We also explore some of the challenges that arise in a real-world system that may appear at first to be outside the domain of traditional machine learning research. These include useful tricks for memory savings, methods for assessing and visualizing performance, practical methods for providing confidence estimates for predicted probabilities, calibration methods, and methods for automated management of features. Finally, we also detail several directions that did not turn out to be beneficial for us, despite promising results elsewhere in the literature. The goal of this paper is to highlight the close relationship between theoretical advances and practical engineering in this industrial setting, and to show the depth of challenges that appear when applying traditional machine learning methods in a complex dynamic system.
{"title":"Ad click prediction: a view from the trenches","authors":"H. B. McMahan, Gary Holt, D. Sculley, Michael Young, D. Ebner, Julian Grady, Lan Nie, Todd Phillips, Eugene Davydov, D. Golovin, S. Chikkerur, Dan Liu, M. Wattenberg, A. M. Hrafnkelsson, T. Boulos, J. Kubica","doi":"10.1145/2487575.2488200","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2487575.2488200","url":null,"abstract":"Predicting ad click-through rates (CTR) is a massive-scale learning problem that is central to the multi-billion dollar online advertising industry. We present a selection of case studies and topics drawn from recent experiments in the setting of a deployed CTR prediction system. These include improvements in the context of traditional supervised learning based on an FTRL-Proximal online learning algorithm (which has excellent sparsity and convergence properties) and the use of per-coordinate learning rates. We also explore some of the challenges that arise in a real-world system that may appear at first to be outside the domain of traditional machine learning research. These include useful tricks for memory savings, methods for assessing and visualizing performance, practical methods for providing confidence estimates for predicted probabilities, calibration methods, and methods for automated management of features. Finally, we also detail several directions that did not turn out to be beneficial for us, despite promising results elsewhere in the literature. The goal of this paper is to highlight the close relationship between theoretical advances and practical engineering in this industrial setting, and to show the depth of challenges that appear when applying traditional machine learning methods in a complex dynamic system.","PeriodicalId":20472,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 19th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74335317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Selective sampling is an active variant of online learning in which the learner is allowed to adaptively query the label of an observed example. The goal of selective sampling is to achieve a good trade-off between prediction performance and the number of queried labels. Existing selective sampling algorithms are designed for vector-based data. In this paper, motivated by the ubiquity of graph representations in real-world applications, we propose to study selective sampling on graphs. We first present an online version of the well-known Learning with Local and Global Consistency method (OLLGC). It is essentially a second-order online learning algorithm, and can be seen as an online ridge regression in the Hilbert space of functions defined on graphs. We prove its regret bound in terms of the structural property (cut size) of a graph. Based on OLLGC, we present a selective sampling algorithm, namely Selective Sampling with Local and Global Consistency (SSLGC), which queries the label of each node based on the confidence of the linear function on graphs. Its bound on the label complexity is also derived. We analyze the low-rank approximation of graph kernels, which enables the online algorithms scale to large graphs. Experiments on benchmark graph datasets show that OLLGC outperforms the state-of-the-art first-order algorithm significantly, and SSLGC achieves comparable or even better results than OLLGC while querying substantially fewer nodes. Moreover, SSLGC is overwhelmingly better than random sampling.
{"title":"Selective sampling on graphs for classification","authors":"Quanquan Gu, C. Aggarwal, Jialu Liu, Jiawei Han","doi":"10.1145/2487575.2487641","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2487575.2487641","url":null,"abstract":"Selective sampling is an active variant of online learning in which the learner is allowed to adaptively query the label of an observed example. The goal of selective sampling is to achieve a good trade-off between prediction performance and the number of queried labels. Existing selective sampling algorithms are designed for vector-based data. In this paper, motivated by the ubiquity of graph representations in real-world applications, we propose to study selective sampling on graphs. We first present an online version of the well-known Learning with Local and Global Consistency method (OLLGC). It is essentially a second-order online learning algorithm, and can be seen as an online ridge regression in the Hilbert space of functions defined on graphs. We prove its regret bound in terms of the structural property (cut size) of a graph. Based on OLLGC, we present a selective sampling algorithm, namely Selective Sampling with Local and Global Consistency (SSLGC), which queries the label of each node based on the confidence of the linear function on graphs. Its bound on the label complexity is also derived. We analyze the low-rank approximation of graph kernels, which enables the online algorithms scale to large graphs. Experiments on benchmark graph datasets show that OLLGC outperforms the state-of-the-art first-order algorithm significantly, and SSLGC achieves comparable or even better results than OLLGC while querying substantially fewer nodes. Moreover, SSLGC is overwhelmingly better than random sampling.","PeriodicalId":20472,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 19th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78647750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Graph clustering, often addressed as community detection, is a prominent task in the domain of graph data mining with dozens of algorithms proposed in recent years. In this paper, we focus on several popular community detection algorithms with low computational complexity and with decent performance on the artificial benchmarks, and we study their behaviour on real-world networks. Motivated by the observation that there is a class of networks for which the community detection methods fail to deliver good community structure, we examine the assortativity coefficient of ground-truth communities and show that assortativity of a community structure can be very different from the assortativity of the original network. We then examine the possibility of exploiting the latter by weighting edges of a network with the aim to improve the community detection outputs for networks with assortative community structure. The evaluation shows that the proposed weighting can significantly improve the results of community detection methods on networks with assortative community structure.
{"title":"On community detection in real-world networks and the importance of degree assortativity","authors":"M. Ciglan, M. Laclavik, K. Nørvåg","doi":"10.1145/2487575.2487666","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2487575.2487666","url":null,"abstract":"Graph clustering, often addressed as community detection, is a prominent task in the domain of graph data mining with dozens of algorithms proposed in recent years. In this paper, we focus on several popular community detection algorithms with low computational complexity and with decent performance on the artificial benchmarks, and we study their behaviour on real-world networks. Motivated by the observation that there is a class of networks for which the community detection methods fail to deliver good community structure, we examine the assortativity coefficient of ground-truth communities and show that assortativity of a community structure can be very different from the assortativity of the original network. We then examine the possibility of exploiting the latter by weighting edges of a network with the aim to improve the community detection outputs for networks with assortative community structure. The evaluation shows that the proposed weighting can significantly improve the results of community detection methods on networks with assortative community structure.","PeriodicalId":20472,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 19th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining","volume":"42 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87004764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shopping can be decomposed into three basic questions: what, where, and when to buy? In this talk, I'll describe how we utilize advanced data-mining and text-mining techniques at Decide.com (and earlier at Farecast) to solve these problems for on-line shoppers. Our algorithms have predicted prices utilizing billions of data points, and ranked products based on millions of reviews.
{"title":"To buy or not to buy: that is the question","authors":"Oren Etzioni","doi":"10.1145/2487575.2491129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2487575.2491129","url":null,"abstract":"Shopping can be decomposed into three basic questions: what, where, and when to buy? In this talk, I'll describe how we utilize advanced data-mining and text-mining techniques at Decide.com (and earlier at Farecast) to solve these problems for on-line shoppers. Our algorithms have predicted prices utilizing billions of data points, and ranked products based on millions of reviews.","PeriodicalId":20472,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 19th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining","volume":"90 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74886529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
T. A. Montgomery, Paul M. Stieg, Michael J. Cavaretta, P. Moraal
Prediction markets are virtual stock markets used to gain insight and forecast events by leveraging the wisdom of crowds. Popularly applied in the public to cultural questions (election results, box-office returns), they have recently been applied by corporations to leverage employee knowledge and forecast answers to business questions (sales volumes, products and features, release timing). Determining whether to run a prediction market requires practical experience that is rarely described. Over the last few years, Ford Motor Company obtained practical experience by deploying one of the largest corporate prediction markets known. Business partners in the US, Europe, and South America provided questions on new vehicle features, sales volumes, take rates, pricing, and macroeconomic trends. We describe our experience, including both the strong and weak correlations found between predictions and real world results. Evaluating this methodology goes beyond prediction accuracy, however, since there are many side benefits. In addition to the predictions, we discuss the value of comments, stock price changes over time, the ability to overcome bureaucratic limits, and flexibly filling holes in corporate knowledge, enabling better decision making. We conclude with advice on running prediction markets, including writing good questions, market duration, motivating traders and protecting confidential information.
{"title":"Experience from hosting a corporate prediction market: benefits beyond the forecasts","authors":"T. A. Montgomery, Paul M. Stieg, Michael J. Cavaretta, P. Moraal","doi":"10.1145/2487575.2488212","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/2487575.2488212","url":null,"abstract":"Prediction markets are virtual stock markets used to gain insight and forecast events by leveraging the wisdom of crowds. Popularly applied in the public to cultural questions (election results, box-office returns), they have recently been applied by corporations to leverage employee knowledge and forecast answers to business questions (sales volumes, products and features, release timing). Determining whether to run a prediction market requires practical experience that is rarely described. Over the last few years, Ford Motor Company obtained practical experience by deploying one of the largest corporate prediction markets known. Business partners in the US, Europe, and South America provided questions on new vehicle features, sales volumes, take rates, pricing, and macroeconomic trends. We describe our experience, including both the strong and weak correlations found between predictions and real world results. Evaluating this methodology goes beyond prediction accuracy, however, since there are many side benefits. In addition to the predictions, we discuss the value of comments, stock price changes over time, the ability to overcome bureaucratic limits, and flexibly filling holes in corporate knowledge, enabling better decision making. We conclude with advice on running prediction markets, including writing good questions, market duration, motivating traders and protecting confidential information.","PeriodicalId":20472,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 19th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76021300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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