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Economic Freedom and Economic Performance in Latin America: A Panel Data Analysis 拉丁美洲的经济自由与经济绩效:面板数据分析
Pub Date : 2013-02-01 DOI: 10.1111/rode.12013
G. Livanis
This paper performs panel regressions of output per worker, capital intensity, human capital, and total factor productivity in Latin America on measures of economic freedom in five policy areas. Results show that a smaller government raises output per worker in Latin America but not in the OECD. Stronger property rights and a tighter monetary policy also raise output per worker, but greater freedom to trade internationally does not, despite doing so in the OECD. Deregulation lowers output per worker in both Latin America and the OECD. Finally, a tighter monetary policy raises total factor productivity (TFP) but reduces capital intensity in Latin America, while deregulation raises capital intensity but lowers TFP in both sets of countries.
本文对拉丁美洲五个政策领域的经济自由指标进行了人均产出、资本密集度、人力资本和全要素生产率的面板回归。结果显示,在拉丁美洲,一个较小的政府提高了人均产出,但在经合组织却没有。加强产权保护和收紧货币政策也会提高人均产出,但扩大国际贸易自由却不会提高人均产出,尽管经合组织(OECD)这样做了。放松管制降低了拉丁美洲和经合组织的人均产出。最后,紧缩的货币政策提高了拉丁美洲的全要素生产率(TFP),但降低了资本密集度,而放松管制提高了资本密集度,但降低了两类国家的全要素生产率。
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引用次数: 9
International Politics and Import Diversification in the Second Wave of Globalization 第二次全球化浪潮中的国际政治与进口多元化
Pub Date : 2012-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2215002
S. Mityakov, Heiwai Tang, K. Tsui
We provide evidence that deterioration of relations between the United States and another country, measured by divergence in their UN General Assembly voting patterns, reduces US imports from that country during the second wave of globalization. Though statistically significant, such an effect of “political distance” on trade is small compared with the frictions imposed by other trade barriers. Indeed, using sector-level trade data, we show that except for petroleum and some chemical products, US imports are not affected by international politics. American firms, however, diversify their import of crude oil significantly away from the political opponents of the US, even after controlling for wars, sanctions, and tariffs. To explain the distinctive political impact on oil import diversification, we test the strategy commodity hypothesis over the hold-up risk hypothesis, because while oil is widely thought to be a strategic commodity, oil trade is also often associated with backward vertical FDI that is subject to the risks of hold-up and expropriation. Our results suggest both political and economic forces are at work. First, although the political limits on oil import are only significant when American firms import oil from dictators, the effect is even more pronounced when the exporting countries have high expropriation risk. Second, a similar import pattern is observed only for other major powers or countries with oil companies operating overseas. Finally, we show that while the US imports of a few strategic commodities, such as tin, are also discouraged by political distance, a similar political effect is also observed in the import of R&D intensive goods, in which case quasi-rents derived from backward FDI in R&D may be expropriated by a hostile government.
我们提供的证据表明,在第二波全球化浪潮中,美国与另一个国家之间关系的恶化(以联合国大会投票模式的分歧来衡量)减少了美国从该国的进口。尽管在统计上具有显著意义,但与其他贸易壁垒造成的摩擦相比,这种“政治距离”对贸易的影响很小。事实上,我们利用行业层面的贸易数据表明,除了石油和一些化工产品外,美国的进口不受国际政治的影响。然而,即使在控制了战争、制裁和关税之后,美国公司的原油进口也大大远离了美国的政治对手。为了解释对石油进口多样化的独特政治影响,我们对战略商品假设进行了测试,而不是持有风险假设,因为尽管石油被广泛认为是一种战略商品,但石油贸易也经常与落后的垂直外国直接投资相关,后者受到持有和征收风险的影响。我们的研究结果表明,政治和经济力量都在起作用。首先,尽管只有当美国公司从独裁者那里进口石油时,对石油进口的政治限制才有意义,但当出口国有很高的征收风险时,这种影响就更加明显了。其次,类似的进口模式只出现在其他主要大国或有石油公司在海外经营的国家。最后,我们表明,虽然美国对锡等少数战略商品的进口也受到政治距离的阻碍,但在研发密集型商品的进口中也观察到类似的政治效应,在这种情况下,研发领域落后的外国直接投资所产生的准租金可能会被敌对政府征收。
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引用次数: 7
Conventions and the European Periphery 公约和欧洲周边
Pub Date : 2012-10-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2155577
Stephen Kinsella
The European periphery is qualitatively different from the core. This implies that a monetary and fiscal policy mix which benefits the core will not, by definition, benefit the periphery except by coincident or accident. The debtor nations are also qualitatively different from the creditor nations. There is a distinct, but not total, overlap between the core and creditor countries, and between the peripheral and debtor countries. The (biased) case for the periphery is made in this article.
欧洲外围国家与核心国家有着本质上的不同。这意味着,从定义上讲,有利于核心国家的货币和财政政策组合不会有利于外围国家,除非是巧合或意外。债务国与债权国也有质的不同。核心国家与债权国之间、外围国家与债务国之间存在明显的重叠,但并非完全重叠。本文对外围的(有偏见的)情况进行了说明。
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引用次数: 5
Services Rules in Regional Trade Agreements - How Diverse and How Creative as Compared to the GATS Multilateral Rules? 区域贸易协定中的服务规则——与服务贸易总协定的多边规则相比,其多样性和创造性如何?
Pub Date : 2012-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2171698
P. Latrille, Juneyoung Lee
The study tries first to assess the extent of similarities and divergences among services rules in regional trade agreements as compared to the GATS. To do so, it uses a typology identifying variations in 48 key provisions structured under seven themes commonly found in RTAs and using the GATS as a benchmark. The analysis identifies two main families of agreements (GATS-inspired and NAFTA-inspired) and a residual category. The paper briefly explores the historical development that led to these families as well as their geographical spread both on an agreement by agreement basis and a country by country basis. The paper then analyses by theme the variations found in the RTAs among services rules including their novelty as compared to the GATS. Given the lack of available information on the implementation of the agreements the paper tries to assess whenever possible the magnitude of the discrepancies and their practical impacts. While subject to some qualifications, the results of the study are relatively straight forward: there is no spaghetti bowl in services rules, but just two families and one residual category. The details reveal that the degree of divergence between those two families does not overall seem insurmountable. This assessment concords with other studies (e.g. Marchetti, Roy) that have equated them in terms of national treatment and market access and have compared directly commitments undertaken under the three families of agreements. One may even note a certain tendency to a convergence towards the GATS model (e.g. the addition of market access clause in the second generation of NAFTA-like agreements or the use of GATS-type architecture by EU for agreements else than pre-adhesion ones).
本研究首先试图评估与服务贸易总协定相比,区域贸易协定中服务规则的相似和差异程度。为此,它使用了一种类型学,确定了在区域贸易协定中常见的七个主题下构成的48项关键条款的变化,并以服务贸易总协定为基准。分析确定了两个主要的协定家族(gats启发和nafta启发)和一个剩余类别。本文简要探讨了导致这些家庭的历史发展及其地理分布,并以协议为基础,以国家为基础。然后,本文按主题分析了区域贸易协定中服务规则之间的差异,包括它们与服务贸易总协定相比的新颖性。由于缺乏关于协定执行情况的现有资料,本文件试图尽可能评估差异的程度及其实际影响。虽然受到一些限制,但研究的结果相对直接:服务规则中没有意大利面碗,只有两个家庭和一个剩余类别。细节表明,这两个家庭之间的分歧程度总体上似乎并非不可克服。这一评价与其他研究(例如Marchetti, Roy)一致,这些研究在国民待遇和市场准入方面将它们等同起来,并比较了在三个协定家族下所作的直接承诺。人们甚至可以注意到向服务贸易总协定模式趋同的某种趋势(例如,在第二代类似北美自由贸易协定的协议中增加了市场准入条款,或者欧盟在加入前协议以外的协议中使用服务贸易总协定类型的架构)。
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引用次数: 16
Trade Disciplines with a Trapdoor: Contract Manufacturing 带有活动门的贸易纪律:合同制造
Pub Date : 2012-09-03 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2144114
Rudolf Adlung, Weiwei Zhang
At first glance, this paper deals with a simple classification issue only: the coverage and treatment of certain manufacturing operations and the resulting products under the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) rather than under its long-standing counterpart in merchandise trade, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). Yet there are important structural/conceptual differences between the two Agreements, which may have far-reaching consequences, inter alia, for the use of GATT-based tariffs and trade remedies (anti-dumping and countervailing measures). It is submitted that the currently applied classification system could prompt companies to (re-)define the ownership conditions of otherwise identical production activities, with a view to avoiding GATT disciplines. However, the relevant criteria separating goods- from services-related operations are not only hard to specify and monitor in practice, but it is also difficult to see an underlying policy rationale. In the interest of clarity and consistency, WTO Members might thus want to close this conceptual trapdoor. Due to the rapid proliferation of international production-sharing arrangements, the stakes will likely be rising.
乍一看,本文只处理一个简单的分类问题:在服务贸易总协定(GATS)下,而不是在其长期对应的商品贸易,关税及贸易总协定(GATT)下,某些制造业务和由此产生的产品的覆盖和处理。然而,这两项协定之间存在着重要的结构/概念差异,这些差异可能会产生深远的影响,特别是对使用基于关贸总协定的关税和贸易补救措施(反倾销和反补贴措施)。有人指出,目前实行的分类制度可能促使公司(重新)确定其他方面相同的生产活动的所有权条件,以期避免关贸总协定的规定。然而,将商品与服务相关的操作分开的相关标准不仅在实践中难以指定和监测,而且也很难看到潜在的政策依据。为了清晰和一致,WTO成员可能希望关闭这扇概念上的陷阱门。由于国际生产分成安排的迅速扩散,风险可能会上升。
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引用次数: 6
Dividend Reductions, The Timing of Dividend Payments and Information Content 股息减少,股息支付的时间和信息内容
Pub Date : 2012-08-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2009293
B. Balachandran, C. Krishnamurti, M. Theobald, Berty Vidanapathirana
Australian companies pay dividends semi-annually with smaller “interim” payments and larger “final” payments. Interim dividends are declared and paid within a less full information environment than final dividends. We analyze the interactions between the timing of dividends and their information content, controlling for share repurchase and tax effects. Dividend reductions that are not associated with share repurchases are statistically significantly related to future abnormal earnings and provide strong support for the information content of dividend reductions. The percentage of dividend reduction is stronger for interim than for final dividend reductions. The market reaction is negatively related to the reduction in imputation tax credit and reacts more aggressively and negatively to interim as compared to final dividend reductions.
澳大利亚公司每半年支付一次股息,“中期”支付金额较小,“最终”支付金额较大。中期股息的宣布和支付在一个不完全的信息环境比最终股息。在控制股票回购和税收影响的情况下,我们分析了股息时间与其信息含量之间的相互作用。与股票回购无关的减息与未来异常收益存在显著的统计学相关性,为减息的信息含量提供了强有力的支持。中期股息减少的百分比大于最终股息减少的百分比。市场反应与税收抵免的减少负相关,并且与最终股息减少相比,对中期的反应更为积极和消极。
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引用次数: 25
On the Complexity of Eliminating Fuel Subsidy in Indonesia: A Behavioral Approach 论印尼取消燃料补贴的复杂性:一种行为方法
Pub Date : 2012-07-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2104997
Rimawan Pradiptyo, Gumilang Aryo Sahadewo
People’s attachment to a subsidy creates difficulties for the government to phase out, and eventually eliminate, the subsidy. Elimination of fuel subsidy scheme in Indonesia is a perfect example of such occurrence. The subsidy has been implementing to commodity as opposed to households, thus individuals may not necessarily realized that they have been enjoying the subsidy when they buy fuel. In this case people may feel as if they are endowed by the values from the provision of the policy. The elimination of the subsidy consequently may be perceived as a loss - as opposed to a foregone gain. This study aims to obtain the most acceptable exit strategy to eliminate the subsidy from the perspective of households by conducting a laboratory-based survey. The alternative exit strategies include methods of elimination of the subsidy and of reallocation of resources saved from eliminating the subsidy. The policy options have been derived using insight from behavioral economics ranging from endowment effect, status quo bias, to present biasness. The survey includes 335 subjects, who come from four different backgrounds: 1) households with no motor vehicle; 2) households with only motorcycle(s); (3) households with one car and; 4) households with one luxurious car or more than one car. Each subject faces 55 paired-wise policy alternatives and the method proposed by Dunn-Rankin (1983) has been used to derive the ordering of preferences. The result shows that gradual elimination of fuel subsidy and reallocation to earmarked programs were the most acceptable policy elements of the exit strategy. The survey, indirectly, showed that subjects’ valuation of losses is greater for direct elimination strategies than that of the equivalent gradual elimination strategies. The results also show that respondents chose “to pay” later at a smaller amount than “to pay” immediately of the equivalent total value. The reallocation of resources saved to earmarked programs is more acceptable than the reallocation to non-earmarked programs. In particular, respondents opted for a more immediate compensation from the elimination or reduction of the subsidy.
人们对补贴的依赖给政府逐步取消并最终取消补贴带来了困难。印度尼西亚取消燃料补贴计划就是一个很好的例子。补贴一直是对商品而不是家庭实施的,因此个人在购买燃料时不一定意识到他们一直在享受补贴。在这种情况下,人们可能会觉得他们被赋予了政策规定的价值观。因此,取消补贴可能会被视为一种损失,而不是一种既得利益。本研究旨在透过实验室调查,从农户的角度,寻求最可接受的退出策略。替代退出策略包括取消补贴和重新分配因取消补贴而节省的资源的方法。这些政策选择是从行为经济学的见解中衍生出来的,从禀赋效应、现状偏见到现状偏见。该调查包括335名受试者,他们来自四种不同的背景:1)没有机动车的家庭;2)只有摩托车的家庭;(三)一辆汽车的家庭;4)拥有一辆或多辆豪华汽车的家庭。每个主体面临55个配对明智的政策选择,Dunn-Rankin(1983)提出的方法已被用于推导偏好排序。结果表明,逐步取消燃料补贴并重新分配给指定项目是退出战略中最可接受的政策要素。该调查间接地表明,受试者对直接消除策略的损失评估大于同等渐进消除策略的损失评估。调查结果还显示,受访者选择“稍后支付”的金额比选择“立即支付”的金额要少。将节省下来的资源重新分配给指定项目比重新分配给非指定项目更容易接受。特别是,受访者选择从取消或减少补贴中获得更直接的补偿。
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引用次数: 4
Conceptualising the EU/LMF Financial Assistance Process 欧盟/LMF财政援助程序概念化
Pub Date : 2012-06-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2084849
Samuel Dahan
This paper provides an analytical approach to the negotiation process for financial assistance in Latvia. We believe that auditing the negotiation process may help us gain a better understanding of financial assistance programmes’ outcomes. More specifically, we assume that decision-makers engaged in a financial assistance negotiation might need to place a high priority on determining the difference that the process makes, net of other influences, to the outcome.The paper is structured as follows: The first part constructs an analytical framework for conceptualising financial stabilization negotiations. This framework allows for testing hypotheses concerning the negotiation process based on evidence from actual experience, in addition to laboratory evidence. It then outlines the various international negotiation strategies that debtors and lenders can use to affect the outcome. It also discusses the importance of actors’ negotiation ‘capability’ in shaping negotiation strategies and outcome. The second part presents findings on the Latvian case, with a brief review of the negotiation process and outcome in the form of a description of policy interaction with policy circles and a review of core areas of policy conditionality. The paper then explains the factors that account for the negotiating strategies attempted by the lenders (e.g.,IMF and the European Commission) and the debtors (e.g., the Latvian government and other key stakeholders) as well as their influence on the outcome. Finally, it concludes by summarizing lessons that can be learned from the negotiation process surrounding financial assistance in Latvia.
本文为拉脱维亚财政援助的谈判进程提供了一种分析方法。我们认为,审计谈判进程可能有助于我们更好地了解财政援助方案的结果。更具体地说,我们假设参与财政援助谈判的决策者可能需要高度优先考虑确定该过程对结果产生的影响,而不考虑其他影响。本文的结构如下:第一部分构建了金融稳定谈判概念化的分析框架。除了实验室证据外,该框架还允许基于实际经验证据测试有关谈判过程的假设。然后概述了债务人和贷款人可以用来影响结果的各种国际谈判策略。它还讨论了行为体的谈判“能力”在塑造谈判策略和结果中的重要性。第二部分提出了关于拉脱维亚案例的调查结果,简要审查了谈判过程和结果,说明了与政策圈的政策相互作用,并审查了政策条件的核心领域。然后,本文解释了贷款人(例如,国际货币基金组织和欧盟委员会)和债务人(例如,拉脱维亚政府和其他主要利益相关者)尝试谈判策略的因素,以及它们对结果的影响。最后,本报告总结了从围绕拉脱维亚财政援助的谈判进程中可以吸取的教训。
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引用次数: 1
Greece in the Eurozone: Lessons from a Decade of Experience 希腊在欧元区:十年经验的教训
Pub Date : 2012-05-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2066125
Elisabeth Oltheten, Theodore Sougiannis, N. Travlos, Stefanos Zarkos
This study examines Greece’s experience as a member of the Eurozone over the period 2002 to 2011. We do not find evidence of incremental benefits for Greece from joining the Eurozone in terms of higher growth in Gross Domestic Product, improved balance of payments, higher levels of public and private investments, higher levels of employment, and lower inflation relative to the prior ten years. In evaluating the Greek experience within the Eurozone, we derive the following fundamental policy lessons that apply both to similar small peripheral EU countries that plan to enter the Eurozone, or any other economic union, and to the Eurozone itself, in terms of facilitating their integration in a large monetary union. First, countries with inefficient public systems must re-engineer and restructure the decision making process in the public sector before they become members of an economic union. Second, countries must generate a friendly environment towards business and provide a) a simple and stable tax system, b) an effective and efficient justice system, and c) a high quality educational system. Third, countries with governments following populist fiscal policies financed by excessive borrowing are likely to lose their competitiveness which in turn lowers the living standards of their people. Fourth, the admission requirements to an economic union must be strict and they must be enforced. Sixth, capital market investors must always differentiate default risk within the country-members of a monetary union.
本研究考察了2002年至2011年期间希腊作为欧元区成员国的经历。我们没有发现证据表明,与前十年相比,加入欧元区对希腊在国内生产总值(gdp)增长加快、国际收支状况改善、公共和私人投资水平提高、就业水平提高和通胀水平降低等方面带来了增量效益。在评估希腊在欧元区的经验时,我们得出了以下基本的政策教训,这些教训既适用于计划加入欧元区或任何其他经济联盟的类似的欧盟外围小国,也适用于欧元区本身,以促进它们融入一个大型货币联盟。首先,公共体系效率低下的国家在成为经济联盟成员之前,必须重新设计和重组公共部门的决策过程。其次,各国必须为企业创造一个友好的环境,并提供a)简单而稳定的税收制度,b)有效而高效的司法制度,以及c)高质量的教育制度。第三,政府实行民粹主义财政政策的国家可能会失去竞争力,从而降低其人民的生活水平。第四,加入经济联盟的条件必须严格,而且必须得到执行。第六,资本市场投资者必须始终区分货币联盟成员国内部的违约风险。
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引用次数: 17
Corporate Ethics Governance - The Role of Stakeholders in a Framework beyond Codes and Borders 公司道德治理——超越规范和边界的框架中利益相关者的角色
Pub Date : 2012-04-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2043119
Senem Sezek, D. Koufopoulos
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the main issues surrounding ethics-focused corporate governance. Insights into how business ethics have emerged is provided and whether firms are attempting to strike the right balance between regulatory and compliance-led processes on the one hand, and improving their ethical governance by embedding the right corporate culture on the other hand. Thus, the paper examines the benefits of implementing appropriate and effective strategies into a firm’s compliance processes which also considers both macro- and micro-economic conditions and changes in current world markets. The research is primarily based on literature developed since 2000. A range of prior empirical academic findings and existing theories have been compared and contrasted. The findings in the literature show that international organisations face more complex issues than those operating in domestic markets as different standards and values across the different countries need to be considered. A rigid approach adopted across various nations does not appear to work well; instead the implementation of a dynamic and flexible framework is suggested to help in coping with the changing business environments. Effective firm performance furthermore needs to consider the influence that stakeholders have on firms’ strategic decision-making processes. This not only requires the commitment of boards of directors and top level executives, but also every other employee within an organisation. A survey was conducted to understand the perceptions on the effectiveness of ethics measures among a transnational sample from various academic and professional backgrounds targeting those in legal and economics/business management functions and involving those in banking, accounting and finances, sciences and education, sales and operations and human resources. The findings in this study based on the foregoing combined stakeholder management theory and the theory of planned behaviour show that perceived stakeholder pressure and consciously recognised internal and external benefits have a significant effect on firms to exploit their ethics codes. Codes of business conduct or ethics codes utilisation was significantly correlated to perceived internal benefits when it was concerned with deterring unethical behaviour and creating an ethical firm culture but also when the codes were seen as promoting a positive external image. Of particular note, perceptions on efforts in training on ethics codes principles was not found to be effectively integrated into firms’ decision-making processes. This study shall be useful to firms seeking to enhance their ability to manage, monitor and evaluate ethical business practices along with regulatory and compliance-led firm strategies. The time and resource constraints did not allow data collection from a larger sample and an in-depth analysis of the entire set of the data available, thus limiting the results. Also, the sensitive nature
本文的目的是研究围绕以伦理为中心的公司治理的主要问题。本文提供了商业道德是如何产生的见解,以及公司是否试图在监管和合规主导的过程之间取得适当的平衡,另一方面通过嵌入正确的企业文化来改善其道德治理。因此,本文考察了在公司合规过程中实施适当和有效战略的好处,该过程还考虑了宏观和微观经济条件以及当前世界市场的变化。这项研究主要基于2000年以来的文献。一系列先前的实证学术发现和现有的理论进行了比较和对比。文献中的发现表明,国际组织面临的问题比在国内市场运营的组织更复杂,因为需要考虑不同国家的不同标准和价值观。各国采用的严格方法似乎效果不佳;相反,建议采用动态和灵活的框架来帮助应对不断变化的业务环境。有效的企业绩效还需要考虑利益相关者对企业战略决策过程的影响。这不仅需要董事会和高层管理人员的承诺,还需要组织内所有其他员工的承诺。我们进行了一项调查,以了解来自不同学术和专业背景的跨国样本对道德措施有效性的看法,调查对象是法律和经济/商业管理职能部门的人员,涉及银行、会计和财务、科学和教育、销售和业务以及人力资源部门的人员。基于上述利益相关者管理理论和计划行为理论的研究结果表明,感知到的利益相关者压力和有意识认识到的内部和外部利益对企业利用其道德准则有显著影响。商业行为准则或道德准则的使用与感知到的内部利益显著相关,当涉及到阻止不道德行为和创建道德公司文化时,也当准则被视为促进积极的外部形象时。特别值得注意的是,对道德守则原则培训工作的看法没有有效地纳入公司的决策过程。本研究将有助于企业提高管理、监督和评估道德商业行为以及监管和合规主导企业战略的能力。由于时间和资源的限制,无法从更大的样本中收集数据,也无法对现有的整套数据进行深入分析,从而限制了结果。此外,该主题的敏感性使研究仅限于定量研究方法。
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引用次数: 1
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INTL: Political & Legal Issues (Topic)
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