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On the Macroeconomic Impact of Fiscal Policy in Germany – Preliminary Results of a SVAR Approach 德国财政政策的宏观经济影响——SVAR方法的初步结果
Pub Date : 2002-03-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2094361
Matthias F. Mohr
Mohr investigates the impact of fiscal policy in Germany using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model including four series: GDP, private consumption, government receipts and government expenditures. The author identifies independent revenue and expenditure shocks using a set of restrictions similar to those already employed in previous studies but still requiring, in the opinion of the author, a full theoretical and empirical validation. The results of the analysis concerning the responses of GDP and consumption tend to support standard presumptions. In particular, they indicate that a positive shock to expenditure increases GDP and private consumption, whereas a positive shock to revenue reduces them. In both cases, the impact on GDP reaches a maximum after about two years.
Mohr使用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型调查了德国财政政策的影响,该模型包括四个系列:GDP、私人消费、政府收入和政府支出。作者使用一套类似于以前研究中已经采用的限制条件来确定独立的收入和支出冲击,但作者认为,这些限制条件仍需要充分的理论和实证验证。关于GDP和消费反应的分析结果倾向于支持标准假设。特别是,它们表明,对支出的积极冲击会增加GDP和私人消费,而对收入的积极冲击会减少它们。在这两种情况下,对GDP的影响在大约两年后达到最大值。
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引用次数: 5
Value Added Taxation in the States: The Challenges Ahead 美国增值税:未来的挑战
Pub Date : 1997-01-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2170025
M. Rao, J. V. Sarma
The need for coordinated development of domestic trade taxes in Indian federal polity has shifted the focus to reforms in the States' sales tax systems. The detailed analysis has led to a concensus on the need to transform the prevailing sales taxes into a destination based consumption type value added tax. The attempts to reform the sales taxes, however, have not been always in the right direction and, in addition, have met with resistance from traders. Based on the experience gained so far, the paper attempts to set out the strategy and stages of reform towards evolving the value added tax which is less distortionary and more acceptable to the traders.
印度联邦政策中协调发展国内贸易税的需要已将重点转移到各州销售税制度的改革上。经过详细的分析,大家一致认为有必要将现行的销售税转变为以目的地为基础的消费型增值税。然而,改革销售税的尝试并不总是朝着正确的方向,此外,还遭到了贸易商的抵制。根据迄今为止所获得的经验,本文试图提出改革的策略和阶段,以发展增值税,使其不那么扭曲,更容易被贸易商接受。
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引用次数: 1
Is There a Role for Cost-Benefit Analysis Beyond the Nation-State?: Lessons from International Regulatory Co-Operation 成本效益分析在民族国家之外还有作用吗?国际监管合作的经验教训
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199934386.003.0007
A. Alemanno
In recent decades, governments across the world actively cooperated to harmonize and coordinate policies “behind the borders” through a variety of harmonization efforts at multilateral, as well as regional and bilateral, levels. These efforts have been dictated by the trade liberalization agenda, which perceives domestic regulatory action as a factor impeding international trade. While the WTO has been successful in removing barriers to trade at the border, it is proving less effective in the fight against non-tariff barriers (NTBs), today’s most prominent obstacles to trade exchanges. Given the current inability of the WTO to effectively address such concerns, some countries seem willing to go beyond traditional international treaty making and to explore new avenues of cooperation. The emerging phenomenon of “horizontal regulatory cooperation,” i.e., cooperation on crosscutting issues such as risk assessment, impact assessment, and cost-benefit analysis, seems to offer a promising venue for overcoming regulatory divergence. It relies on the assumption that substantive regulatory convergence can be facilitated by convergence of the general way in which regulators approach standard setting. At a time of growing international interest and policy diffusion of cost-benefit analysis, this chapter explores whether cost-benefit analysis could be used to promote rationality in regulatory decisionmaking beyond the nation-state. In so doing, it draws on the recent experience of international regulatory cooperation of some industrialized countries and examines the extent to which developing nations may be willing and able to participate in this cooperation exercise.
近几十年来,世界各国政府积极合作,通过多边、区域和双边各级的各种协调努力,协调和协调“边界后面”的政策。这些努力是由贸易自由化议程决定的,该议程认为国内管制行动是阻碍国际贸易的一个因素。尽管世贸组织在消除边境贸易壁垒方面取得了成功,但在打击非关税壁垒(ntb)方面却显得不那么有效。非关税壁垒是当今贸易交流中最突出的障碍。鉴于世贸组织目前无法有效解决这些关切,一些国家似乎愿意超越传统的国际条约制定,探索新的合作途径。新兴的“横向监管合作”现象,即在风险评估、影响评估和成本效益分析等横切问题上的合作,似乎为克服监管分歧提供了一个有希望的场所。它所依赖的假设是,监管机构处理标准制定的一般方式趋同,可以促进实质性监管趋同。在成本效益分析日益受到国际关注和政策扩散的时代,本章探讨成本效益分析是否可以用于促进超越民族国家的监管决策的合理性。在这样做的过程中,它借鉴了一些工业化国家最近进行国际管制合作的经验,并审查了发展中国家愿意和能够在多大程度上参与这一合作活动。
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引用次数: 3
Analysing Wage Formation in the South African Labour Markets: The Role of Bargaining Councils 分析南非劳动力市场的工资形成:议价委员会的作用
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2184181
H. Bhorat, C. V. D. Westhuizen, Sumayya Goga
The role of bargaining councils, the central pillar of collective bargaining in South Africa, in the formation of wages is important in the context of high unemployment rates in South Africa. In this study we find that while institutionalised collective bargaining system covered substantially more formal sector workers in 2005 (30 percent) compared to 1995 (15 percent), this still meant that less than a third of the formally employed were covered by bargaining councils. Notwithstanding this, the overall rise in the number of workers covered by bargaining council agreements between 1995 and 2005 was driven almost primarily by the introduction of public sector councils. Thus, bargaining council coverage in the first decade of democracy is characterised by an erosion of coverage within the private sector bargaining council system on the one hand and the rapid rise of this system of bargaining in the public sector. On the other hand the descriptive data and multivariate models show therefore a significant wage premium associated with coverage under public sector councils in 2005, in excess of the large and significant union wage premium. The decline in the bargaining council system in the private sector is accompanied by declining wage premia for formal sector workers covered under private sector bargaining council agreements, with our preferred specification in 2005 indicating no significant private sector bargaining council wage premium.
谈判委员会是南非集体谈判的中心支柱,它在形成工资方面的作用在南非高失业率的情况下是重要的。在这项研究中,我们发现,与1995年的15%相比,制度化的集体谈判制度在2005年覆盖了更多的正式部门工人(30%),这仍然意味着不到三分之一的正式雇员被谈判委员会所覆盖。尽管如此,1995年至2005年期间谈判委员会协议所涵盖的工人人数的总体增长,几乎主要是由于引入了公共部门委员会。因此,在民主的第一个十年中,议价委员会的覆盖范围一方面是私营部门议价委员会系统内的覆盖范围受到侵蚀,另一方面是这种议价制度在公共部门的迅速兴起。另一方面,描述性数据和多变量模型显示,2005年公共部门委员会承保范围内的工资溢价显著高于工会工资溢价。随着私营部门谈判委员会制度的衰落,私营部门谈判委员会协议涵盖的正规部门工人的工资溢价也在下降,我们在2005年的首选规范表明,私营部门谈判委员会的工资溢价并不明显。
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引用次数: 31
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