Abebe Hailemariam, Sefa Awaworyi Churchill, R. Smyth, Kingsley Tetteh Baako
We examine the relationship between income inequality and house prices for a panel of 17 OECD countries over the period 1870 to 2015. Our identification strategy takes advantage of exogenous variation in culturally weighted communist influence to instrument for within-country variations in income inequality. Controlling for time and country fixed effects, our results suggest that an increase in income inequality has a significant negative effect on real house prices. This finding is robust to the use of both the Gini coefficient and top income share as measures of income inequality as well as a range of robustness checks. We examine crime as a mechanism through which income inequality influences housing prices and find that the theft rate is a channel via which higher income inequality contributes to lower house prices.
{"title":"Income Inequality and Housing Prices in the Very Long-run","authors":"Abebe Hailemariam, Sefa Awaworyi Churchill, R. Smyth, Kingsley Tetteh Baako","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3673264","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3673264","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the relationship between income inequality and house prices for a panel of 17 OECD countries over the period 1870 to 2015. Our identification strategy takes advantage of exogenous variation in culturally weighted communist influence to instrument for within-country variations in income inequality. Controlling for time and country fixed effects, our results suggest that an increase in income inequality has a significant negative effect on real house prices. This finding is robust to the use of both the Gini coefficient and top income share as measures of income inequality as well as a range of robustness checks. We examine crime as a mechanism through which income inequality influences housing prices and find that the theft rate is a channel via which higher income inequality contributes to lower house prices.","PeriodicalId":21047,"journal":{"name":"Real Estate eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88422153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The literature regarding the effects of managerial optimism concentrates on CEOs, all but neglecting the broader executive team. We evaluate the interplay of the optimism levels of the CEOs and CFOs of listed real estate investment trusts, and study the commercial real estate transactions made by the firms led by these teams. We find that firms led by optimistic executive teams pay 2.7% more than their peers for their private asset acquisitions if the cash ratio increase by one percentage point. These firms also exhibit inferior stock performance following their asset acquisitions. Conversely, diverse opinions in the boardroom prevent firms from overpaying on their asset transactions, improving their stock performance relative to optimistic teams. Our findings suggest that diversity in terms of executive optimism is a soft governance mechanism with salience to firm performance.
{"title":"Optimism in the Executive Team: Corporate Asset Transactions and Stock Performance","authors":"Piet Eichholtz, Erkan Yönder","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3672693","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3672693","url":null,"abstract":"The literature regarding the effects of managerial optimism concentrates on CEOs, all but neglecting the broader executive team. We evaluate the interplay of the optimism levels of the CEOs and CFOs of listed real estate investment trusts, and study the commercial real estate transactions made by the firms led by these teams. We find that firms led by optimistic executive teams pay 2.7% more than their peers for their private asset acquisitions if the cash ratio increase by one percentage point. These firms also exhibit inferior stock performance following their asset acquisitions. Conversely, diverse opinions in the boardroom prevent firms from overpaying on their asset transactions, improving their stock performance relative to optimistic teams. Our findings suggest that diversity in terms of executive optimism is a soft governance mechanism with salience to firm performance.","PeriodicalId":21047,"journal":{"name":"Real Estate eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79946315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-08-01DOI: 10.5089/9781513554433.001.A001
Adrian Alter, Zaki Dernaoui
This paper studies the US housing market using a proprietary and comprehensive dataset covering nearly 90 million residential transactions over 1998–2018. First, we document the evolution of different types of investment purchases such as those conducted by short-term buyers, out-of-state buyers, and corporate cash investors. Second, we quantify the contributions of non-primary home buyers to the housing cycle. Our findings suggest that the share of short-term investors grew substantially in the run-up to the global financial crisis (GFC), which amplified the boom-bust cycle, while out-of-state buyers propped up prices in some areas during the recession. An instrumental variable approach is employed to establish a causal relationship between housing investors and prices. Finally, we show that the recent rise of shadow bank lending in the residential market is associated with riskier mortgages, and explore its implications for non-primary home buyers and its effects on house prices and rents.
{"title":"Non-Primary Home Buyers, Shadow Banking, and the US Housing Market","authors":"Adrian Alter, Zaki Dernaoui","doi":"10.5089/9781513554433.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513554433.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the US housing market using a proprietary and comprehensive dataset covering nearly 90 million residential transactions over 1998–2018. First, we document the evolution of different types of investment purchases such as those conducted by short-term buyers, out-of-state buyers, and corporate cash investors. Second, we quantify the contributions of non-primary home buyers to the housing cycle. Our findings suggest that the share of short-term investors grew substantially in the run-up to the global financial crisis (GFC), which amplified the boom-bust cycle, while out-of-state buyers propped up prices in some areas during the recession. An instrumental variable approach is employed to establish a causal relationship between housing investors and prices. Finally, we show that the recent rise of shadow bank lending in the residential market is associated with riskier mortgages, and explore its implications for non-primary home buyers and its effects on house prices and rents.","PeriodicalId":21047,"journal":{"name":"Real Estate eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75852166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In many countries around the world, migration costs and housing supply restrictions interact with each other and combine to restrict workers’ location decisions. Using an equilibrium sorting model and rich micro data from China, we evaluate the impacts of these dual constraints on workers’ sorting behavior and quantify the resulting changes in aggregate welfare and inequality. We find strong policy interactions between the two kinds of frictions in determining welfare losses and regional inequality. Counterfactual simulations show that lowering migration costs can increase welfare and reduce regional inequality by moving workers from unproductive inland regions to productive coastal regions in China; such welfare and regional distributional impacts depend on the elasticity of housing supply in coastal regions and vice-versa. Results highlight the policy complementarities between reducing the two kinds of frictions and have general implications for countries with different levels of constraints on mobility and housing supply.
Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
{"title":"Frictional Sorting","authors":"Wenquan Liang, Ran-Hee Song, C. Timmins","doi":"10.3386/w27643","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27643","url":null,"abstract":"In many countries around the world, migration costs and housing supply restrictions interact with each other and combine to restrict workers’ location decisions. Using an equilibrium sorting model and rich micro data from China, we evaluate the impacts of these dual constraints on workers’ sorting behavior and quantify the resulting changes in aggregate welfare and inequality. We find strong policy interactions between the two kinds of frictions in determining welfare losses and regional inequality. Counterfactual simulations show that lowering migration costs can increase welfare and reduce regional inequality by moving workers from unproductive inland regions to productive coastal regions in China; such welfare and regional distributional impacts depend on the elasticity of housing supply in coastal regions and vice-versa. Results highlight the policy complementarities between reducing the two kinds of frictions and have general implications for countries with different levels of constraints on mobility and housing supply.<br><br>Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at <a href=\"http://www.nber.org/papers/w27643\" TARGET=\"_blank\">www.nber.org</a>.<br>","PeriodicalId":21047,"journal":{"name":"Real Estate eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81730534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper shows that individual beliefs on the effectiveness of formal and informal sources of risk sharing determine financial precautionary behavior. We present empirical evidence demonstrating that higher trust in public insurance systems reduces net liquid wealth while higher trust in communal insurance increases it. This dichotomy is consistent with theories on access to private risk sharing networks. Moreover, we find that both types of trust associate positively with the probability to take on financial risk for the purpose of becoming a homeowner and the related loan-to-value ratio. Our findings are robust across a wide range of econometric controls and specifications.
{"title":"Culture and Portfolios: Trust, Precautionary Savings and Home Ownership","authors":"J. Fleck, Adrian Monninger","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3676330","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3676330","url":null,"abstract":"This paper shows that individual beliefs on the effectiveness of formal and informal sources of risk sharing determine financial precautionary behavior. We present empirical evidence demonstrating that higher trust in public insurance systems reduces net liquid wealth while higher trust in communal insurance increases it. This dichotomy is consistent with theories on access to private risk sharing networks. Moreover, we find that both types of trust associate positively with the probability to take on financial risk for the purpose of becoming a homeowner and the related loan-to-value ratio. Our findings are robust across a wide range of econometric controls and specifications.","PeriodicalId":21047,"journal":{"name":"Real Estate eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76517954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study a new type of securitization, mortgage-receivable-backed securities (MRBSs) issued by real estate developers. Unlike traditional mortgage-backed securities (MBSs), the major risk of underlying assets of MRBSs is payment delay instead of default and prepayment. Using unique loan-level data, we estimate proportional hazard models and detect factors that affect the risk of underlying assets of MRBSs, including bank characteristics, property-loan-household characteristics, local market conditions, and macroeconomic conditions. Especially, we find that the effects of house prices and LTVs on MRBS risk are the opposite of those on traditional MBS risk. Based on the estimates, we simulate cash flows of an underlying-asset pool and analyze the shortfall risk of the corresponding security tranches. We find that the securitization process imposes a natural adverse selection on the underlying assets. Our analyses provide a benchmark for conducting appropriate security designs based on the composition of the underlying asset pool, increase the transparency for investors on the risk pattern of MRBSs, and provide implications for pricing and regulation.
{"title":"Securitization of Assets with Payment Delay Risk: A Financial Innovation in the Real Estate Market","authors":"Chao Ma, Hao Zhang, Hongbiao Zhao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3663266","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3663266","url":null,"abstract":"We study a new type of securitization, mortgage-receivable-backed securities (MRBSs) issued by real estate developers. Unlike traditional mortgage-backed securities (MBSs), the major risk of underlying assets of MRBSs is payment delay instead of default and prepayment. Using unique loan-level data, we estimate proportional hazard models and detect factors that affect the risk of underlying assets of MRBSs, including bank characteristics, property-loan-household characteristics, local market conditions, and macroeconomic conditions. Especially, we find that the effects of house prices and LTVs on MRBS risk are the opposite of those on traditional MBS risk. Based on the estimates, we simulate cash flows of an underlying-asset pool and analyze the shortfall risk of the corresponding security tranches. We find that the securitization process imposes a natural adverse selection on the underlying assets. Our analyses provide a benchmark for conducting appropriate security designs based on the composition of the underlying asset pool, increase the transparency for investors on the risk pattern of MRBSs, and provide implications for pricing and regulation.","PeriodicalId":21047,"journal":{"name":"Real Estate eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86381199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Although the goal of licensing is to ensure the quality of services, it can also induce firms to operate informally or exit altogether. This paper examines licensing in the rental housing market by developing a model that indicates licensing's impact on the size of the underground rental market, the number of vacancies, and homelessness are ambiguous. As a result, we calibrate the model using a unique dataset from Baltimore, which allows us to directly observe underground rentals and vacancies. Our calibrations show that licensing may have a modest impact on rents, while increasing quality more substantially.
{"title":"Licensing and the Informal Sector in Rental Housing Markets: Theory and Evidence","authors":"A. Samuel, Jeremy Schwartz, Kerry M. Tan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3612317","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3612317","url":null,"abstract":"Although the goal of licensing is to ensure the quality of services, it can also induce firms to operate informally or exit altogether. This paper examines licensing in the rental housing market by developing a model that indicates licensing's impact on the size of the underground rental market, the number of vacancies, and homelessness are ambiguous. As a result, we calibrate the model using a unique dataset from Baltimore, which allows us to directly observe underground rentals and vacancies. Our calibrations show that licensing may have a modest impact on rents, while increasing quality more substantially.","PeriodicalId":21047,"journal":{"name":"Real Estate eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75697419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We find evidence that water stress of physical assets is an additional component of risk for investors. The World Resources Institute (WRI) found that 1 in 5 people are living in areas at high risk of water scarcity. Recently, the WRI Aqueduct 3.0 model provided new data and insights for measuring water stress globally. We leverage this framework to understand the connection between water risk exposure and financial risk using the global Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) sector as a case study. We first develop a definition of water stress that incorporates changes in water supply and water demand. Next, we geolocate over 84,000 REIT properties and map them to over 590 publicly listed REITs. Finally, we study the impacts of water stress exposure on REIT financial measures. We find evidence that water stress is connected with market risk and financials of REITs. Using WRI water stress projections for 2030, we find that REITs will experience a substantial increase in exposure to water stress.
{"title":"Impacts of Water Stress on Physical Assets Using REITs as a Case Study","authors":"A. Bertolotti, Tianyi Luo, Y. Suo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3651583","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3651583","url":null,"abstract":"We find evidence that water stress of physical assets is an additional component of risk for investors. The World Resources Institute (WRI) found that 1 in 5 people are living in areas at high risk of water scarcity. Recently, the WRI Aqueduct 3.0 model provided new data and insights for measuring water stress globally. We leverage this framework to understand the connection between water risk exposure and financial risk using the global Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) sector as a case study. We first develop a definition of water stress that incorporates changes in water supply and water demand. Next, we geolocate over 84,000 REIT properties and map them to over 590 publicly listed REITs. Finally, we study the impacts of water stress exposure on REIT financial measures. We find evidence that water stress is connected with market risk and financials of REITs. Using WRI water stress projections for 2030, we find that REITs will experience a substantial increase in exposure to water stress.","PeriodicalId":21047,"journal":{"name":"Real Estate eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83033925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Local control of land-use regulation creates a not-in-my-backyard (NIMBY) problem that can suppress housing construction, contributing to rising prices and potentially slowing economic growth. I study how increased local control affects housing production by exploiting a common electoral reform—changing from “at-large” to “ward” elections for town council. These reforms, which are not typically motivated by housing markets, shrink each representative's constituency from the entire town to one ward. Results from a variety of difference-in-differences estimators show that this decentralization decreases housing units permitted by 20%, with similar effects on multi- and single-family permits. Effects are larger in whiter and higher-income towns.
{"title":"Warding Off Development: Local Control, Housing Supply, and NIMBYs","authors":"Evan Mast","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3650189","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3650189","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Local control of land-use regulation creates a not-in-my-backyard (NIMBY) problem that can suppress housing construction, contributing to rising prices and potentially slowing economic growth. I study how increased local control affects housing production by exploiting a common electoral reform—changing from “at-large” to “ward” elections for town council. These reforms, which are not typically motivated by housing markets, shrink each representative's constituency from the entire town to one ward. Results from a variety of difference-in-differences estimators show that this decentralization decreases housing units permitted by 20%, with similar effects on multi- and single-family permits. Effects are larger in whiter and higher-income towns.","PeriodicalId":21047,"journal":{"name":"Real Estate eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89679589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We develop a comprehensive dataset of state and local taxes from 2000-2015 that includes personal income taxes, property taxes, corporate income taxes, sales taxes, estate taxes and excise taxes. We illustrate how state and local taxes have changed over time, in response to business cycles, and to what extent different taxes co-move within a state or locality. Across states and local jurisdictions, large differences in the mix of taxes are observed, and these differences have tended to become more pronounced over time. Moreover, we note that different types of taxes tend to co-move within a state or local jurisdiction, highlighting the importance for researches to take into account the entirety of the tax system, rather than just a single tax type, when examining household or firm responses to state and local tax changes. At both a state and local level, increases in tax rates of all types tend to increase tax revenue but worsen business conditions and employment.
{"title":"Correlation in State and Local Tax Changes","authors":"S. Baker, P. Janas, Lorenz Kueng","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3648513","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3648513","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a comprehensive dataset of state and local taxes from 2000-2015 that includes personal income taxes, property taxes, corporate income taxes, sales taxes, estate taxes and excise taxes. We illustrate how state and local taxes have changed over time, in response to business cycles, and to what extent different taxes co-move within a state or locality. Across states and local jurisdictions, large differences in the mix of taxes are observed, and these differences have tended to become more pronounced over time. Moreover, we note that different types of taxes tend to co-move within a state or local jurisdiction, highlighting the importance for researches to take into account the entirety of the tax system, rather than just a single tax type, when examining household or firm responses to state and local tax changes. At both a state and local level, increases in tax rates of all types tend to increase tax revenue but worsen business conditions and employment.","PeriodicalId":21047,"journal":{"name":"Real Estate eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75917182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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