Abstract We present a comprehensive analysis of the performance and flows of U.S. actively managed equity mutual funds during the 2020 COVID-19 crisis. We find that most active funds underperform passive benchmarks during the crisis, contradicting a popular hypothesis. Funds with high sustainability ratings perform well, as do funds with high star ratings. Fund outflows surpass precrisis trends, but not dramatically. Investors favor funds that apply exclusion criteria and funds with high sustainability ratings, especially environmental ones. Our finding that investors remain focused on sustainability during this major crisis suggests they view sustainability as a necessity rather than a luxury good.
{"title":"Mutual Fund Performance and Flows during the COVID-19 Crisis","authors":"Ľuboš Pástor, Blair Vorsatz","doi":"10.1093/rapstu/raaa015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rapstu/raaa015","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We present a comprehensive analysis of the performance and flows of U.S. actively managed equity mutual funds during the 2020 COVID-19 crisis. We find that most active funds underperform passive benchmarks during the crisis, contradicting a popular hypothesis. Funds with high sustainability ratings perform well, as do funds with high star ratings. Fund outflows surpass precrisis trends, but not dramatically. Investors favor funds that apply exclusion criteria and funds with high sustainability ratings, especially environmental ones. Our finding that investors remain focused on sustainability during this major crisis suggests they view sustainability as a necessity rather than a luxury good.","PeriodicalId":21144,"journal":{"name":"Review of Asset Pricing Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":13.1,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/rapstu/raaa015","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41381702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This is the first paper to examine how the COVID-19 shock transmitted from the asset markets to capital markets. Using a novel measure of the exposure of commercial real estate (CRE) portfolios to the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases (GeoCOVID), we find a one-standard-deviation increase in GeoCOVID on day t-1 is associated with a 0.24 to 0.93 percentage points decrease in abnormal returns over 1- to 3-day windows. There is substantial variation across property types. Local and state policy interventions helped to moderate the negative return impact of GeoCOVID. However, there is little evidence that reopenings affected the performance of CRE markets.
{"title":"A First Look at the Impact of COVID-19 on Commercial Real Estate Prices: Asset-Level Evidence","authors":"David C. Ling, Chongyu Wang, Tingyu Zhou","doi":"10.1093/rapstu/raaa014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rapstu/raaa014","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This is the first paper to examine how the COVID-19 shock transmitted from the asset markets to capital markets. Using a novel measure of the exposure of commercial real estate (CRE) portfolios to the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases (GeoCOVID), we find a one-standard-deviation increase in GeoCOVID on day t-1 is associated with a 0.24 to 0.93 percentage points decrease in abnormal returns over 1- to 3-day windows. There is substantial variation across property types. Local and state policy interventions helped to moderate the negative return impact of GeoCOVID. However, there is little evidence that reopenings affected the performance of CRE markets.","PeriodicalId":21144,"journal":{"name":"Review of Asset Pricing Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":13.1,"publicationDate":"2020-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/rapstu/raaa014","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49482901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Risk-neutral distributions of the S&P 500 are informative about the COVID-19 pandemic beyond what one can learn from index values and the market fear gauge of the VIX alone. We learn that, on February 20, 2020, the index did not yet reflect the impending crisis. Only on March 16, 2020, was the full impact visible, with a pronounced bimodality for longer-maturity options revealing a sizeable crash scenario. The corresponding physical distribution is more symmetric and features a high-volatility crash scenario. Firms bought crash protection ahead of the index crash, whereas retail customers bought it as the index was already recovering.
{"title":"What Do Index Options Teach Us About COVID-19?","authors":"J. Jackwerth","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3573558","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3573558","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Risk-neutral distributions of the S&P 500 are informative about the COVID-19 pandemic beyond what one can learn from index values and the market fear gauge of the VIX alone. We learn that, on February 20, 2020, the index did not yet reflect the impending crisis. Only on March 16, 2020, was the full impact visible, with a pronounced bimodality for longer-maturity options revealing a sizeable crash scenario. The corresponding physical distribution is more symmetric and features a high-volatility crash scenario. Firms bought crash protection ahead of the index crash, whereas retail customers bought it as the index was already recovering.","PeriodicalId":21144,"journal":{"name":"Review of Asset Pricing Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":13.1,"publicationDate":"2020-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46218748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We use party-identifying language—like “liberal media” and “MAGA”—to identify Republican users on the investor social platform StockTwits. Using a difference-in-difference design, we find that partisan Republicans remain relatively unfazed in their beliefs about equities during the COVID-19 pandemic, while other users become considerably more pessimistic. In cross-sectional tests, we find Republicans become relatively more optimistic about stocks that suffered the most during the COVID-19 crisis, but more pessimistic about Chinese stocks. Finally, stocks with the greatest partisan disagreement on StockTwits have significantly more trading in the broader market, explaining 28% of the increase in stock turnover during the pandemic.
{"title":"Does Partisanship Shape Investor Beliefs? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"J. Cookson, Joseph Engelberg, William Mullins","doi":"10.1093/rapstu/raaa018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rapstu/raaa018","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We use party-identifying language—like “liberal media” and “MAGA”—to identify Republican users on the investor social platform StockTwits. Using a difference-in-difference design, we find that partisan Republicans remain relatively unfazed in their beliefs about equities during the COVID-19 pandemic, while other users become considerably more pessimistic. In cross-sectional tests, we find Republicans become relatively more optimistic about stocks that suffered the most during the COVID-19 crisis, but more pessimistic about Chinese stocks. Finally, stocks with the greatest partisan disagreement on StockTwits have significantly more trading in the broader market, explaining 28% of the increase in stock turnover during the pandemic.","PeriodicalId":21144,"journal":{"name":"Review of Asset Pricing Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":13.1,"publicationDate":"2020-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/rapstu/raaa018","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48836580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We use data from aggregate stock and dividend futures markets to quantify how investors’ expectations about economic growth evolved across horizons following the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and subsequent policy responses until July 2020. Dividend futures, which are claims to dividends on the aggregate stock market in a particular year, can be used to directly compute a lower bound on growth expectations across maturities or to estimate expected growth using a forecasting model. We show how the actual forecast and the bound evolve over time. As of July 20th, our forecast of annual growth in dividends points to a decline of 8% in both the United States and Japan and a 14% decline in the European Union compared to January 1. Our forecast of GDP growth points to a decline of 2% in the United States and Japan and 3% in the European Union. The lower bound on the change in expected dividends is -17% in the United States and Japan and -28% in the European Union at the 2-year horizon. News about U.S. monetary policy and the fiscal stimulus bill around March 24 boosted the stock market and long-term growth but did little to increase short-term growth expectations. Expected dividend growth has improved since April 1 in all geographies.
{"title":"Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations","authors":"N. J. Gormsen, R. Koijen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3555917","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3555917","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We use data from aggregate stock and dividend futures markets to quantify how investors’ expectations about economic growth evolved across horizons following the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and subsequent policy responses until July 2020. Dividend futures, which are claims to dividends on the aggregate stock market in a particular year, can be used to directly compute a lower bound on growth expectations across maturities or to estimate expected growth using a forecasting model. We show how the actual forecast and the bound evolve over time. As of July 20th, our forecast of annual growth in dividends points to a decline of 8% in both the United States and Japan and a 14% decline in the European Union compared to January 1. Our forecast of GDP growth points to a decline of 2% in the United States and Japan and 3% in the European Union. The lower bound on the change in expected dividends is -17% in the United States and Japan and -28% in the European Union at the 2-year horizon. News about U.S. monetary policy and the fiscal stimulus bill around March 24 boosted the stock market and long-term growth but did little to increase short-term growth expectations. Expected dividend growth has improved since April 1 in all geographies.","PeriodicalId":21144,"journal":{"name":"Review of Asset Pricing Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":13.1,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41439227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I test a number of well-known asset pricing models using regression-based managed portfolios that capture nonlinearity in the cross-sectional relation between firm characteristics and expected stock returns. Although the average portfolio returns point to substantial nonlinearity in the data, none of the asset pricing models successfully explain the estimated nonlinear effects. Indeed, the estimated expected returns produced by the models display almost no variation across portfolios. Because the tests soundly reject every model considered, it is apparent that nonlinearity in the relation between firm characteristics and expected stock returns poses a formidable challenge to asset pricing theory. (JEL G12, C58)
{"title":"Firm Characteristics, Cross-Sectional Regression Estimates, and Asset Pricing Tests","authors":"Chris Kirby","doi":"10.1093/RAPSTU/RAZ005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/RAPSTU/RAZ005","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 I test a number of well-known asset pricing models using regression-based managed portfolios that capture nonlinearity in the cross-sectional relation between firm characteristics and expected stock returns. Although the average portfolio returns point to substantial nonlinearity in the data, none of the asset pricing models successfully explain the estimated nonlinear effects. Indeed, the estimated expected returns produced by the models display almost no variation across portfolios. Because the tests soundly reject every model considered, it is apparent that nonlinearity in the relation between firm characteristics and expected stock returns poses a formidable challenge to asset pricing theory. (JEL G12, C58)","PeriodicalId":21144,"journal":{"name":"Review of Asset Pricing Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":13.1,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84836421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. Baker, R. Farrokhnia, Steffen Meyer, Michaela Pagel, Constantine Yannelis
Abstract Utilizing transaction-level financial data, we explore how household consumption responded to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. As case numbers grew and cities and states enacted shelter-in-place orders, Americans began to radically alter their typical spending across a number of major categories. In the first half of March 2020, individuals increased total spending by over 40% across a wide range of categories. This was followed by a decrease in overall spending of 25%–30% during the second half of March coinciding with the disease spreading, with only food delivery and grocery spending as major exceptions to the decline. Spending responded most strongly in states with active shelter-in-place orders, though individuals in all states had sizable responses. We find few differences across individuals with differing political beliefs, but households with children or low levels of liquidity saw the largest declines in spending during the latter part of March.
{"title":"How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"S. Baker, R. Farrokhnia, Steffen Meyer, Michaela Pagel, Constantine Yannelis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3565521","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3565521","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Utilizing transaction-level financial data, we explore how household consumption responded to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. As case numbers grew and cities and states enacted shelter-in-place orders, Americans began to radically alter their typical spending across a number of major categories. In the first half of March 2020, individuals increased total spending by over 40% across a wide range of categories. This was followed by a decrease in overall spending of 25%–30% during the second half of March coinciding with the disease spreading, with only food delivery and grocery spending as major exceptions to the decline. Spending responded most strongly in states with active shelter-in-place orders, though individuals in all states had sizable responses. We find few differences across individuals with differing political beliefs, but households with children or low levels of liquidity saw the largest declines in spending during the latter part of March.","PeriodicalId":21144,"journal":{"name":"Review of Asset Pricing Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":13.1,"publicationDate":"2020-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42554309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Standard finite horizon tests uncover only weak evidence of the predictive power of the real exchange rate for excess currency returns. On the other hand, in long-horizon tests, the real exchange rate strongly and negatively predicts future excess currency returns. Conversely, we can attribute most of the variability in real exchange rates to changes in currency risk premiums. The “habit” and “long-run risks” models replicate the predictive power of the real exchange rate for excess currency returns, but substantially overstate the fraction of the volatility of the real exchange rate due to risk premiums. Received December 14, 2017; Editorial decision October 14, 2018 by Editor: Raman Uppal. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.
{"title":"Real Exchange Rates and Currency Risk Premiums","authors":"Pierluigi Balduzzi, I-Hsuan Ethan Chiang","doi":"10.1093/rapstu/raz002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rapstu/raz002","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Standard finite horizon tests uncover only weak evidence of the predictive power of the real exchange rate for excess currency returns. On the other hand, in long-horizon tests, the real exchange rate strongly and negatively predicts future excess currency returns. Conversely, we can attribute most of the variability in real exchange rates to changes in currency risk premiums. The “habit” and “long-run risks” models replicate the predictive power of the real exchange rate for excess currency returns, but substantially overstate the fraction of the volatility of the real exchange rate due to risk premiums.\u0000 Received December 14, 2017; Editorial decision October 14, 2018 by Editor: Raman Uppal. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.","PeriodicalId":21144,"journal":{"name":"Review of Asset Pricing Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":13.1,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88351501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Ellul, Itay Goldstein, C. Holden, Ronald W. Masulis, Jeffrey Pontiff, A. Schoar
{"title":"Annual Report of the Society for Financial Studies for 2018–2019","authors":"A. Ellul, Itay Goldstein, C. Holden, Ronald W. Masulis, Jeffrey Pontiff, A. Schoar","doi":"10.1093/rapstu/raz009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rapstu/raz009","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":21144,"journal":{"name":"Review of Asset Pricing Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":13.1,"publicationDate":"2020-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84958135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Supply Channel of Uncertainty Shocks and the Cross-Section of Returns: Evidence From the COVID-19 Crisis","authors":"Lorenzo Bretscher, Alex Hsu, A. Tamoni","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3588418","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3588418","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":21144,"journal":{"name":"Review of Asset Pricing Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":13.1,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68610228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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