We use the ratio of growth in global military expenditures to gross domestic product (GDP) to capture ex ante expectations of political instability and explore the relation between this measure and returns. In a standard global asset pricing framework with 44 countries, this measure helps to explain cross-country return differences. Furthermore, emerging countries have greater exposure to international political instability risk than developed countries. This partially explains the higher returns observed in emerging countries.
{"title":"Growing Pains: International Instability and Equity Market Returns","authors":"Zhuo Chen, Andrea Lu, Clair Yang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2050005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2050005","url":null,"abstract":"We use the ratio of growth in global military expenditures to gross domestic product (GDP) to capture ex ante expectations of political instability and explore the relation between this measure and returns. In a standard global asset pricing framework with 44 countries, this measure helps to explain cross-country return differences. Furthermore, emerging countries have greater exposure to international political instability risk than developed countries. This partially explains the higher returns observed in emerging countries.","PeriodicalId":214104,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics - Econometrics of Financial Markets eJournal","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132166640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Antonio Cosma, S. Galluccio, Paola Pederzoli, O. Scaillet
We introduce a fast and widely applicable numerical pricing method that uses recursive projections. We characterize its convergence speed. We find that the early exercise boundary of an American call option on a discrete dividend paying stock is higher under the Merton and Heston models than under the Black-Scholes model, as opposed to the continuous dividend case. A large database of call options on stocks with quarterly dividends shows that adding stochastic volatility and jumps to the Black-Scholes benchmark reduces the amount foregone by call holders failing to optimally exercise by 25%. Transaction fees cannot fully explain the suboptimal behavior.
{"title":"Valuing American Options Using Fast Recursive Projections","authors":"Antonio Cosma, S. Galluccio, Paola Pederzoli, O. Scaillet","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2091236","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2091236","url":null,"abstract":"We introduce a fast and widely applicable numerical pricing method that uses recursive projections. We characterize its convergence speed. We find that the early exercise boundary of an American call option on a discrete dividend paying stock is higher under the Merton and Heston models than under the Black-Scholes model, as opposed to the continuous dividend case. A large database of call options on stocks with quarterly dividends shows that adding stochastic volatility and jumps to the Black-Scholes benchmark reduces the amount foregone by call holders failing to optimally exercise by 25%. Transaction fees cannot fully explain the suboptimal behavior.","PeriodicalId":214104,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics - Econometrics of Financial Markets eJournal","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116930955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The stocks in a momentum portfolio, which contribute to momentum profits, do not experience significant subsequent reversals. Conversely, stocks that do not contribute to momentum profits over the intermediate horizon exhibit subsequent reversals. Merging these separate securities into a single portfolio causes momentum and reversal patterns to appear linked. Stocks with momentum can be separated from those that exhibit reversal by sorting on size and book-to-market equity ratio. Controlling for proxies for behavioral biases, market illiquidity, and macroeconomic factors does not affect our results.
{"title":"Momentum and Reversal: Does What Goes Up Always Come Down?","authors":"Jennifer S. Conrad, M. Yavuz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2011148","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2011148","url":null,"abstract":"The stocks in a momentum portfolio, which contribute to momentum profits, do not experience significant subsequent reversals. Conversely, stocks that do not contribute to momentum profits over the intermediate horizon exhibit subsequent reversals. Merging these separate securities into a single portfolio causes momentum and reversal patterns to appear linked. Stocks with momentum can be separated from those that exhibit reversal by sorting on size and book-to-market equity ratio. Controlling for proxies for behavioral biases, market illiquidity, and macroeconomic factors does not affect our results.","PeriodicalId":214104,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics - Econometrics of Financial Markets eJournal","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125281867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We conduct a decomposition for the stock market return by incorporating the information from 124 macro variables. Using factor analysis, we estimate six common factors and run a VAR containing these factors and financial variables such as the market dividend yield and the T-bill rate. Including the macro factors does not have a significant impact in the estimation of the components of aggregate (excess) stock returns—cash-flow, discount-rate, and interest-rate news. Using the macro factors in the computation of cash-flow and discount-rate news does not significantly improve the fit of a two-factor ICAPM for the cross-section of stock returns.
{"title":"Macro Variables and the Components of Stock Returns","authors":"Paulo F. Maio, Dennis Philip","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2021885","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2021885","url":null,"abstract":"We conduct a decomposition for the stock market return by incorporating the information from 124 macro variables. Using factor analysis, we estimate six common factors and run a VAR containing these factors and financial variables such as the market dividend yield and the T-bill rate. Including the macro factors does not have a significant impact in the estimation of the components of aggregate (excess) stock returns—cash-flow, discount-rate, and interest-rate news. Using the macro factors in the computation of cash-flow and discount-rate news does not significantly improve the fit of a two-factor ICAPM for the cross-section of stock returns.","PeriodicalId":214104,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics - Econometrics of Financial Markets eJournal","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133334439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper assesses variance risk premium and forecasts out-of-sample VIX under GARCH(1,1), GJR, and Heston-Nandi models. With the date-t GARCH parameters estimated in a moving window fashion from 3,500 daily returns of the SP these risk-neutral parameters forecast the date-t VIX accurately with errors of not more than 0.2% on average.
{"title":"Variance Risk Premium and VIX Pricing: A Simple GARCH Approach","authors":"Qiang Liu, Gaoxiu Qiao, Shuxin Guo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2155993","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2155993","url":null,"abstract":"This paper assesses variance risk premium and forecasts out-of-sample VIX under GARCH(1,1), GJR, and Heston-Nandi models. With the date-t GARCH parameters estimated in a moving window fashion from 3,500 daily returns of the SP these risk-neutral parameters forecast the date-t VIX accurately with errors of not more than 0.2% on average.","PeriodicalId":214104,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics - Econometrics of Financial Markets eJournal","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127964921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper exposits a model of parallel trading of corporate securities (shares, bonds) and derivatives (TRS, CDS) in which a large trader can sometimes profitably acquire securities with their corporate control rights for the sole purpose of reducing the corporation's value and gaining on a net short position created through off-setting derivatives. At other times, the large trader profitably takes a net long position. The large trader requires no private information beyond its own trades. The problem is most likely to manifest when derivatives trade on an exchange and transactions give blocking powers to small minorities, particularly out-of-bankruptcy restructurings and freezeouts.
{"title":"Derivatives Trading and Negative Voting","authors":"Holger Spamann","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2144552","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2144552","url":null,"abstract":"This paper exposits a model of parallel trading of corporate securities (shares, bonds) and derivatives (TRS, CDS) in which a large trader can sometimes profitably acquire securities with their corporate control rights for the sole purpose of reducing the corporation's value and gaining on a net short position created through off-setting derivatives. At other times, the large trader profitably takes a net long position. The large trader requires no private information beyond its own trades. The problem is most likely to manifest when derivatives trade on an exchange and transactions give blocking powers to small minorities, particularly out-of-bankruptcy restructurings and freezeouts.","PeriodicalId":214104,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics - Econometrics of Financial Markets eJournal","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131275706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study investigates the impact of foreign investors on the informational efficiency of stock prices in local markets. Using a large sample of Japanese firms over the period 1976 to 2008, we find that prices deviate less from a random walk for stocks with a large change in foreign ownership. This relation is robust to controls for local institutional ownership, stock liquidity, and firm fixed effects. Granger causality tests show that changes in foreign investor trading predict changes in price efficiency in the next period, but not vice versa. Finally, we use a quasi-natural experiment to show that an increase in foreign ownership causes an improvement in price efficiency. Collectively, these results suggest that foreign investors improve price efficiency in local stock markets.
{"title":"Do Foreign Investors Improve Informational Efficiency of Stock Prices? Evidence from Japan","authors":"Wen He, Jianfeng Shen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2077334","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2077334","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the impact of foreign investors on the informational efficiency of stock prices in local markets. Using a large sample of Japanese firms over the period 1976 to 2008, we find that prices deviate less from a random walk for stocks with a large change in foreign ownership. This relation is robust to controls for local institutional ownership, stock liquidity, and firm fixed effects. Granger causality tests show that changes in foreign investor trading predict changes in price efficiency in the next period, but not vice versa. Finally, we use a quasi-natural experiment to show that an increase in foreign ownership causes an improvement in price efficiency. Collectively, these results suggest that foreign investors improve price efficiency in local stock markets.","PeriodicalId":214104,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics - Econometrics of Financial Markets eJournal","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115137267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper we investigate the relationship between spot and futures prices within the EU-wide CO2 emissions trading scheme (EU-ETS). We conduct an empirical study on price behavior, volatility term structure and correlations in different CO2 EU Allowance (EUA) contracts during the pilot trading and Kyoto commitment periods. We find that while for the pilot trading period (2005-2007) the market was initially in backwardation, after the news of overallocation, both allowance prices and convenience yield approached zero. During the Kyoto commitment period (2008-2012), the market has changed from initial backwardation to contango with significant convenience yields in futures contracts. We further examine the dynamic structure of the relationship between spot and futures prices in the functional form by applying a new approach of dynamic semiparametric factor models (DSFM). Interestingly, our DSFM results can be related to the classic Gibson-Schwartz two-factor model for pricing contingent claims in commodity markets that uses the spot price and the instantaneous convenience yield as factors. Our results might point towards future applications of the Gibson-Schwartz model for pricing of intra- and inter-period EUA derivatives contracts.
{"title":"The Relationship between Spot and Futures CO2 Emission Allowance Prices in the EU-ETS","authors":"S. Trück, W. Härdle, R. Weron","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2137346","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2137346","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we investigate the relationship between spot and futures prices within the EU-wide CO2 emissions trading scheme (EU-ETS). We conduct an empirical study on price behavior, volatility term structure and correlations in different CO2 EU Allowance (EUA) contracts during the pilot trading and Kyoto commitment periods. We find that while for the pilot trading period (2005-2007) the market was initially in backwardation, after the news of overallocation, both allowance prices and convenience yield approached zero. During the Kyoto commitment period (2008-2012), the market has changed from initial backwardation to contango with significant convenience yields in futures contracts. We further examine the dynamic structure of the relationship between spot and futures prices in the functional form by applying a new approach of dynamic semiparametric factor models (DSFM). Interestingly, our DSFM results can be related to the classic Gibson-Schwartz two-factor model for pricing contingent claims in commodity markets that uses the spot price and the instantaneous convenience yield as factors. Our results might point towards future applications of the Gibson-Schwartz model for pricing of intra- and inter-period EUA derivatives contracts.","PeriodicalId":214104,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics - Econometrics of Financial Markets eJournal","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127737082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We show that higher institutional ownership causes firms to pay more dividends. Our identification relies on a discontinuity in ownership around Russell index thresholds. Our estimates indicate that a one-percentage-point increase in institutional ownership causes a $7 million (8%) increase in dividends. We also find differences in shareholder proposals and voting patterns that suggest that even nonactivist institutions play an important role in monitoring firm behavior. The effect of institutional ownership on dividends is stronger for firms with higher expected agency costs.
{"title":"The Effect of Institutional Ownership on Payout Policy: Evidence from Index Thresholds","authors":"Alan D. Crane, S. Michenaud, J. Weston","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2102822","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2102822","url":null,"abstract":"We show that higher institutional ownership causes firms to pay more dividends. Our identification relies on a discontinuity in ownership around Russell index thresholds. Our estimates indicate that a one-percentage-point increase in institutional ownership causes a $7 million (8%) increase in dividends. We also find differences in shareholder proposals and voting patterns that suggest that even nonactivist institutions play an important role in monitoring firm behavior. The effect of institutional ownership on dividends is stronger for firms with higher expected agency costs.","PeriodicalId":214104,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics - Econometrics of Financial Markets eJournal","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121024462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The nature of the dependence between discontinuities in prices and contemporaneous discontinuities in volatility (co-jumps) has been reported by many as being elusive, in terms of sign, magnitude, and statistical significance. Using a novel identification strategy in continuous time relying on trade-level information for spot variance estimation, as well as infinitesimal cross-moments, we document that a sizeable proportion of discontinuous changes in prices are associated with strongly anti-correlated, contemporaneous, discontinuous changes in volatility. Assuming a possibly nonmonotonic pricing kernel, we illustrate the equilibrium implications of price and volatility co-jumps for return and variance risk premia.
{"title":"Price and Volatility Co-Jumps","authors":"F. Bandi, R. Renò","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2014777","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2014777","url":null,"abstract":"The nature of the dependence between discontinuities in prices and contemporaneous discontinuities in volatility (co-jumps) has been reported by many as being elusive, in terms of sign, magnitude, and statistical significance. Using a novel identification strategy in continuous time relying on trade-level information for spot variance estimation, as well as infinitesimal cross-moments, we document that a sizeable proportion of discontinuous changes in prices are associated with strongly anti-correlated, contemporaneous, discontinuous changes in volatility. Assuming a possibly nonmonotonic pricing kernel, we illustrate the equilibrium implications of price and volatility co-jumps for return and variance risk premia.","PeriodicalId":214104,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics - Econometrics of Financial Markets eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130467519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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