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A Flexible Matrix Libor Model with Smiles 带微笑的灵活矩阵Libor模型
Alessandro Gnoatto, M. Grasselli, J. D. da Fonseca
We present a flexible approach for the valuation of interest rate derivatives based on affine processes. We extend the methodology proposed in Keller-Ressel et al. (in press) by changing the choice of the state space. We provide semi-closed-form solutions for the pricing of caps and floors. We then show that it is possible to price swaptions in this multifactor setting with a good degree of analytical tractability. This is done via the Edgeworth expansion approach developed in Collin-Dufresne and Goldstein (2002). A numerical exercise illustrates the flexibility of Wishart Libor model in describing the movements of the implied volatility surface.
我们提出了一种基于仿射过程的利率衍生品估值的灵活方法。我们通过改变状态空间的选择扩展了Keller-Ressel等人(即将出版)提出的方法。我们提供半封闭形式的上限和下限定价解决方案。然后我们表明,在这种多因素设置中,具有良好的分析可追溯性的价格互换是可能的。这是通过colin - dufresne和Goldstein(2002)开发的Edgeworth扩展方法完成的。一项数值计算说明了Wishart Libor模型在描述隐含波动率面变动时的灵活性。
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引用次数: 12
Currency Returns, Skewness and Crash Risk 货币回报、偏度和崩溃风险
B. Rafferty
I identify a global currency skewness risk factor. Currency portfolios that have higher average excess returns co-vary more positively with this risk factor. They suffer losses in bad times for currency investors when high interest rate investment currencies have a greater tendency to depreciate sharply as a group relative to low interest rate funding currencies. Consequently, they earn higher average excess returns as reward for exposure to this risk. I create three sets of sorted currency portfolios reflecting three distinct sources of variation in average excess currency returns. The first set sorts currencies based on interest rate differentials. The second set sorts currencies based on currency momentum. The third set sorts currencies based on currency undervaluedness relative to the benchmark purchasing power parity (PPP) implied exchange rates. Within these sets of sorted currency portfolios, currencies with higher interest rates earn higher average excess returns. Secondly, currencies that are higher momentum currencies (currencies with higher recent excess returns) earn higher average excess returns. Thirdly, currencies that are more undervalued relative to the PPP implied level earn higher average excess returns. I find that differences in exposure to the global currency skewness risk factor can explain the systematic variation in average excess currency returns within all three groups of portfolios much better than existing foreign exchange risk factors in the literature.
我确定了一个全球货币失衡的风险因素。具有较高平均超额收益的货币投资组合与该风险因子的协变更为正。对于外汇投资者来说,当高利率投资货币作为一个整体相对于低利率融资货币有更大的大幅贬值趋势时,它们就会蒙受损失。因此,作为承担这种风险的回报,他们获得了更高的平均超额回报。我创建了三组分类货币投资组合,反映了平均超额货币回报的三个不同变化来源。第一组是根据利差对货币进行分类。第二组根据货币动量对货币进行分类。第三组根据货币相对于基准购买力平价(PPP)隐含汇率的低估程度对货币进行分类。在这些分类的货币组合中,利率较高的货币获得的平均超额回报较高。其次,高动量货币(近期超额收益较高的货币)的平均超额收益较高。第三,相对于购买力平价隐含水平,低估程度越严重的货币,其平均超额回报就越高。我发现,与文献中现有的外汇风险因素相比,暴露于全球货币偏度风险因素的差异可以更好地解释所有三组投资组合中平均超额货币回报的系统变化。
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引用次数: 67
Effects of Football on Stock Markets: Return-Volatility Relationship 足球对股票市场的影响:收益-波动关系
H. Berument, N. Ceylan
This paper assesses the effects of domestic football teams’ performances against foreign rivals on stock market returns as well as on the return-volatility relationship. The data from Chile, Spain, Turkey and the United Kingdom support the propositions that the results of football teams in international cups affect (i) stock market returns and (ii) the risk-return relationship. Evidence from Spain and the UK (countries considered football powerhouses) suggest that losses are associated with lower returns and higher risk aversion (agents become less risk loving) but the evidence from Chile and Turkey (where football is the most important sport but the teams are not as successful) reveals that wins are associated with higher returns and lower risk aversion (agents become more risk loving).
本文评估了国内足球队对外国对手的表现对股票市场收益以及收益-波动关系的影响。来自智利、西班牙、土耳其和英国的数据支持足球队在国际杯赛中的结果影响(i)股市收益和(ii)风险回报关系的命题。来自西班牙和英国(被认为是足球强国的国家)的证据表明,失败与低回报和高风险厌恶有关(经纪人变得不那么喜欢冒险),但来自智利和土耳其(足球是最重要的运动,但球队不那么成功)的证据表明,胜利与高回报和低风险厌恶有关(经纪人变得更喜欢冒险)。
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引用次数: 0
Long-Term Asset Tail Risk in Developed and Emerging Markets 发达市场和新兴市场的长期资产尾部风险
S. Straetmans, B. Candelon
The tail of financial returns is typically governed by a power law (i.e. “fat tails”). However, the constancy of the so-called tail index α which dictates the tail decay has been hardly investigated. We study the finite sample properties of some recently proposed endogenous tests for structural change in α. Given that the finite sample critical values strongly depend on the tail parameters of the return distribution we propose a bootstrap-based version of the structural change test. Our empirical application spans a wide variety of long-term developed and emerging financial asset returns. Somewhat surprisingly, the tail behavior of emerging stock markets is not more strongly inclined to structural change than their developed counterparts. Emerging currencies, on the contrary, are more prone to shifts in the tail behavior than developed currencies. Our results suggest that extreme value theory (EVT) applications in hedging tail risks or in assessing the (changing) propensity to financial crises can assume stationary tail behavior over long time spans provided one considers portfolios that solely consist of stocks or bonds. However, our break results also indicate it is advisable to use shorter estimation windows when applying EVT methods to emerging currency portfolios.
金融回报的尾部通常受幂律支配(即“肥尾”)。然而,指示尾衰变的所谓尾指数α的常数几乎没有研究过。我们研究了最近提出的α结构变化内源测试的有限样本性质。鉴于有限样本临界值强烈依赖于回归分布的尾部参数,我们提出了一个基于自举的结构变化检验版本。我们的实证应用涵盖了各种长期发达和新兴金融资产回报。有些令人惊讶的是,新兴股市的尾部行为并不比发达股市更倾向于结构性变化。相反,新兴货币比发达货币更容易出现尾部行为的变化。我们的研究结果表明,极端价值理论(EVT)在对冲尾部风险或评估(变化的)金融危机倾向方面的应用可以假设长时间跨度的平稳尾部行为,只要考虑仅由股票或债券组成的投资组合。然而,我们的研究结果也表明,在将EVT方法应用于新兴货币投资组合时,使用较短的估计窗口是可取的。
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引用次数: 4
An Application of GARCH Models in Detecting Systematic Bias in Options Pricing and Determining Arbitrage in Options GARCH模型在期权定价系统偏差检测和期权套利确定中的应用
M. Dash, Jay H. Dagha, P. Sharma, Rashmi Singhal
Derivatives have become widely accepted as tools for hedging and risk-management, as well as speculation to some extent. A more recent trend has been gaining ground, namely, arbitrage in derivatives. The critical parameter in derivatives pricing is the volatility of the underlying asset. Exchanges often overestimate volatility in order to cover any sudden changes in market behavior, leading to systematic overpricing of derivatives. Accurate forecasting of volatility would expose systematic overpricing. Unfortunately, volatility is not an easy phenomenon to predict or forecast. One class of models that have proved successful in forecasting volatility in many situations is the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) family of models. The objective of the present study is to analyze systematic bias in the pricing of options derivatives. In order to perform the analysis, data were collected for a sample of stock options traded on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and their underlying stocks. In the study, GARCH models are used to forecast underlying stock volatility, and the forecasted volatility is used in the Black-Scholes model in order to determine whether the corresponding options were fairly priced. Any systematic bias in options pricing would provide evidence for arbitrage opportunities.
衍生品已被广泛接受为对冲和风险管理的工具,在某种程度上也是投机工具。最近出现了一种趋势,即衍生品套利。衍生品定价的关键参数是标的资产的波动性。交易所经常高估波动性,以掩盖市场行为的突然变化,导致衍生品系统性定价过高。对波动性的准确预测将暴露出系统性的定价过高。不幸的是,波动不是一种容易预测或预测的现象。一类已被证明在许多情况下成功预测波动率的模型是广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)模型族。本研究的目的是分析期权衍生品定价中的系统性偏差。为了进行分析,收集了在印度国家证券交易所(NSE)交易的股票期权样本及其基础股票的数据。本研究采用GARCH模型对标的股票波动率进行预测,并将预测的波动率运用到Black-Scholes模型中,以确定相应的期权是否公允定价。期权定价中的任何系统性偏差都将为套利机会提供证据。
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引用次数: 4
Are REITs Real Estate? Evidence from International Sector Level Data REITs是房地产吗?来自国际部门层面数据的证据
Martin Hoesli, Elias Oikarinen
The aim of this study is to examine whether securitized real estate returns reflect direct real estate returns or general stock market returns using international data for the U.S., U.K., and Australia. In contrast to previous research, which has generally relied on overall real estate market indices and neglected the potential long-term dynamics, our econometric evaluation is based on sector level data and caters for both the short-term and long-term dynamics of the assets as well as for the lack of leverage in the direct real estate indices. In addition to the real estate and stock market indices, the analysis includes a number of fundamental variables that are expected to influence real estate and stock returns significantly. We estimate vector error-correction models and investigate the forecast error variance decompositions and impulse responses of the assets. Both the variance decompositions and impulse responses suggest that the long-run REIT market performance is much more closely related to the direct real estate market than to the general stock market. Consequently, REITs and direct real estate should be relatively good substitutes in a long-horizon investment portfolio. The results are of relevance regarding the relationship between public and private markets in general, as the ‘duality’ of the real estate markets offers an opportunity to test whether and how closely securitized asset returns reflect the performance of underlying private assets. The study also includes implications concerning the recent financial crisis.
本研究的目的是利用美国、英国和澳大利亚的国际数据,检验证券化房地产回报是否反映了直接的房地产回报或一般的股票市场回报。与以往的研究普遍依赖于整体房地产市场指数而忽视潜在的长期动态不同,我们的计量经济评估基于行业层面的数据,既考虑了资产的短期和长期动态,也考虑了直接房地产指数中缺乏杠杆的问题。除了房地产和股票市场指数外,该分析还包括一些预计将显著影响房地产和股票回报的基本变量。我们估计了向量误差修正模型,并研究了资产的预测误差方差分解和脉冲响应。方差分解和脉冲响应都表明,房地产投资信托基金的长期市场表现与直接房地产市场的关系要比与一般股票市场的关系密切得多。因此,在长期投资组合中,房地产投资信托基金和直接房地产应该是相对较好的替代品。结果与公共市场和私人市场之间的关系有关,因为房地产市场的“二元性”提供了一个机会来测试证券化资产回报是否以及在多大程度上反映了潜在私人资产的表现。该研究还包括对最近金融危机的影响。
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引用次数: 189
Efficient and Feasible Inference for the Components of Financial Variation Using Blocked Multipower Variation 基于分块多功率变分的财务变化成分的有效可行推断
P. Mykland, N. Shephard, Kevin Sheppard
High frequency financial data allows us to learn more about volatility, volatility of volatility and jumps. One of the key techniques developed in the literature in recent years has been bipower variation and its multipower extension, which estimates time-varying volatility robustly to jumps. We improve the scope and efficiency of multipower variation by the use of a more sophisticated exploitation of high frequency data. This suggests very significant improvements in the power of jump tests. It also yields efficient estimates of the integrated variance of the continuous part of a semimartingale. The paper also shows how to extend the theory to the case where there is microstructure in the observations and derive the first nonparametric high frequency estimator of the volatility of volatility. A fundamental device in the paper is a new type of result showing path-by-path (strong) approximation between multipower and the (unobserved) RV based on the continuous part of the process.
高频金融数据让我们更多地了解波动性,波动性的波动性和跳跃。近年来,文献中发展的一个关键技术是双幂变分及其多幂扩展,它可以对跳跃进行时变波动的鲁棒估计。我们通过使用更复杂的高频数据开发来提高多功率变化的范围和效率。这表明跳跃测试的能力有了很大的提高。它也产生了半鞅连续部分的积分方差的有效估计。本文还展示了如何将该理论推广到观测中存在微观结构的情况,并推导了波动率波动率的第一个非参数高频估计。本文的一个基本装置是一种新型的结果,显示了基于过程连续部分的多功率和(未观测)RV之间的逐路(强)逼近。
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引用次数: 25
Symmetry Methods for the Quadratic Gaussian Libor Model 二次高斯Libor模型的对称方法
P. Mccloud
This article describes the expectation and measure groups of the quadratic Gaussian algebra, and considers their application in the pricing of interest rate and cross asset derivatives. The discussion is motivated by the desire to construct consistent, arbitrage-free, term structure pricing models, that incorporate multi-factor decorrelation and credible smile dynamics in a robust and easy to implement framework. The article concludes with the application of symmetry techniques in the construction of the quadratic Gaussian Libor model.
本文描述了二次高斯代数的期望组和测度组,并考虑了它们在利率和交叉资产衍生品定价中的应用。讨论的动机是希望构建一致的,无套利的,期限结构定价模型,该模型将多因素去相关和可信的微笑动态纳入稳健且易于实现的框架中。文章最后介绍了对称技术在二次高斯Libor模型构建中的应用。
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引用次数: 3
Does the Institutionalization of Derivatives Trading Spur Economic Growth? 衍生品交易的制度化是否刺激了经济增长?
Paulo Rodrigues, C. Schwarz, Norman J. Seeger
It is a widespread view that derivatives played a crucial role during the recent financial and economic crisis. This opinion manifested in headlines such as “Why Derivatives Caused Financial Crisis” and derivatives have been termed “Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction”. However, the analysis of the role of derivatives in the economy requires a much more differentiated discussion as the statements given above imply. In this paper we analyze the effect of institutionalization of derivatives trading on economic growth and economic growth volatility; measuring growth in GDP per capita. The relationship between the institutionalization of derivatives trading and economic growth is investigated by using a panel data set comprising of 45 countries observed over 39 years. Our results show a statistically and economically significant positive effect of the establishment and existence of a domestic derivatives exchange on economic growth. These results are robust to different model specifications and to controlling for financial reforms. The effect of institutionalized derivatives trading on growth volatility is analyzed by means of an EGARCH model and is found to be negative and significant.
人们普遍认为,衍生品在最近的金融和经济危机中发挥了至关重要的作用。这一观点在诸如《金融衍生品为何引发金融危机》之类的标题中得到了体现,衍生品也被称为“大规模杀伤性金融武器”。然而,正如上述陈述所暗示的那样,对衍生品在经济中的作用的分析需要更有区别的讨论。本文分析了衍生品交易制度化对经济增长和经济增长波动率的影响;衡量人均GDP增长的指标。衍生品交易的制度化和经济增长之间的关系是通过使用面板数据集包括45个国家观察了39年。我们的研究结果表明,国内衍生品交易所的建立和存在对经济增长具有统计学和经济学上显著的积极影响。这些结果对不同的模型规格和金融改革控制具有鲁棒性。利用EGARCH模型分析了机构衍生品交易对增长波动率的影响,发现机构衍生品交易对增长波动率的影响为负且显著。
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引用次数: 11
International Market Links and Volatility Transmission 国际市场联系和波动传导
V. Corradi, W. Distaso, Marcelo Fernandes
This paper gauges volatility transmission between stock markets by testing conditional independence of their volatility measures. In particular, we check whether the conditional density of the volatility changes if we further condition on the volatility of another market. We employ nonparametric methods to estimate the conditional densities and model-free realized measures of volatility, allowing for both microstructure noise and jumps. We establish the asymptotic normality of the test statistic as well as the first-order validity of the bootstrap analog. Finally, we uncover significant volatility spillovers between the stock markets in China, Japan, UK and US.
本文通过检验波动率测度的条件独立性来衡量股票市场之间的波动率传导。特别是,如果我们进一步以另一个市场的波动率为条件,我们会检查波动率的条件密度是否会改变。我们采用非参数方法来估计条件密度和无模型实现的波动性测量,同时考虑微观结构噪声和跳跃。我们建立了检验统计量的渐近正态性以及自举模拟的一阶有效性。最后,我们发现中国、日本、英国和美国股市之间存在显著的波动性溢出效应。
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引用次数: 33
期刊
Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Financial Economics - Econometrics of Financial Markets eJournal
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