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IETI Transactions on Data Analysis and Forecasting (iTDAF)最新文献

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Forecasting and Directions Regarding Sustainable Public Procurement 关于可持续公共采购的预测和方向
Pub Date : 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.3991/itdaf.v1i2.39987
E. Rusu, Otilia Manta
In the present research, the author presents the public procurement system as a significant lever for governments to accelerate the transition to more sustainable modes of consumption and production and, more generally, to contribute to the broader goal of sustainable development. Sustainable Public Procurement (SPP) is a process through which public entities procure goods, services, works, and utilities in optimal conditions, considering factors such as price and quality, in order to generate benefits entities while minimizing negative impacts on the environment. Consequently, this paper proposes some methodological issues that could contribute to the establishment of a SPP system, based on the model implemented and applied in EU countries. Additionally, this paper focuses on forecasting and presenting the current situations of public procurement as the basic element.
在本研究中,作者认为公共采购制度是政府加速向更可持续的消费和生产模式过渡的重要杠杆,更广泛地说,是为实现更广泛的可持续发展目标作出贡献的杠杆。可持续公共采购(SPP)是公共实体在考虑价格和质量等因素的情况下,以最优条件采购商品、服务、工程和公用事业的过程,目的是在最大限度地减少对环境的负面影响的同时,为实体创造利益。因此,本文在欧盟国家实施和应用SPP模式的基础上,提出了一些有助于建立SPP制度的方法问题。此外,本文还以预测和展示政府采购的现状为基本要素。
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引用次数: 0
The Applications of Platinum Catalysts in PEM Fuel Cells: Process and Data Analysis 铂催化剂在PEM燃料电池中的应用:过程与数据分析
Pub Date : 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.3991/itdaf.v1i2.41671
Hailing Ma
Achieving global carbon neutrality and reducing airborne pollution require innovative solutions. One potential solution is to replace fossil fuel-based energy with clean energy production and supply, necessitating the advancement of fuel cells, metal-air cells, supercapacitors, and water splitting. This paper analyzes data and predicts future trends for the quality of catalysts, carrier structure, construction characterization, environmental impact, and recycling preparation techniques for waste platinum catalysts. The findings presented in this study serve as inspiration for related research, aiding the successful promotion of clean energy technologies.
实现全球碳中和和减少空气污染需要创新的解决方案。一个潜在的解决方案是用清洁能源的生产和供应取代化石燃料能源,这需要燃料电池、金属-空气电池、超级电容器和水分解技术的进步。本文从催化剂的质量、载体结构、结构表征、环境影响、废铂催化剂的回收制备技术等方面对数据进行了分析和预测。本研究结果对相关研究具有启发作用,有助于清洁能源技术的成功推广。
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引用次数: 0
Early Prediction of Monkeypox Virus Outbreak Using Machine Learning 利用机器学习对猴痘病毒爆发进行早期预测
Pub Date : 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.3991/itdaf.v1i2.40175
S. Akinola, Qing-Guo Wang, Peter O. Olukanmi, T. Marwala
At the onset of an infectious disease, such as the monkeypox virus (MPXV), surveillance data is crucial in keeping track of the outbreak’s progression. The surveillance data for MPXV received considerable attention after multiple European countries recorded cases. Historical data obtained from May 9, 2022, to August 10, 2022, were used to model the cumulative case trajectories of MPXV in five countries. Our study employed autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA), neural network autoregression (NNETAR), exponential smoothing (ETS), and seasonal naïve regression (SNAÏVE) for training and evaluation. The paper makes the following contributions: (1) enhanced model stability with the Box-Cox transformation as a preprocessing step, (2) experimentation with both linear and non-linear models, and (3) simulation of the top five countries during the impulsive rise in cases of MPXV. The results were evaluated using three metrics: root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The ARIMA (0,1,3) (1,0,0)[7] model yielded the lowest percentage error of 5.16 in the holdout set for MAPE in France observations. The ETS (A, A, A) model, the lowest percentage error in the holdout set for MAE was 7.35 in Germany. Regarding the NNETAR (1,1,2) [7] model, the lowest percentage error in the holdout observations for RMSE was 8.33 in Spain, 2.75 in the United Kingdom (UK), and 8.05 in the United States of America (USA) in that order. Based on these findings, we can conclude that while the transformation proved crucial for model performance, it was not necessary for all experiments, as ARIMA remained dominant in France and the ETS model in Germany. At the same time, NNETAR model outperformed in cumulative case counts in Spain, the UK, and the USA. Our experimentation allows for early identification and contributes to a better understanding of forecasting MPXV cases using combinations of both linear and nonlinear models.
在诸如猴痘病毒(MPXV)等传染病发病时,监测数据对于跟踪疫情的进展至关重要。在多个欧洲国家记录病例后,MPXV的监测数据受到了相当大的关注。利用2022年5月9日至2022年8月10日期间获得的历史数据,对五个国家的MPXV累积病例轨迹进行了建模。我们的研究采用自回归综合移动平均线(ARIMA)、神经网络自回归(NNETAR)、指数平滑(ETS)和季节性naïve回归(SNAÏVE)进行训练和评估。本文的贡献如下:(1)利用Box-Cox变换作为预处理步骤增强了模型的稳定性;(2)对线性和非线性模型进行了实验;(3)对MPXV情况下脉冲上升期间前5个国家进行了模拟。使用三个指标评估结果:均方根误差(RMSE)、均方误差(MAE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)。ARIMA(0,1,3)(1,0,0)[7]模型在法国MAPE观测的保留集中产生了5.16的最低百分比误差。在ETS (A, A, A)模型中,德国MAE的最低百分比错误率为7.35。在NNETAR(1,1,2)[7]模型中,滞留观测中RMSE的最低百分比误差依次为:西班牙8.33,英国2.75,美国8.05。基于这些发现,我们可以得出结论,虽然转换证明对模型性能至关重要,但并非所有实验都需要转换,因为ARIMA在法国和ETS模型在德国仍然占主导地位。同时,NNETAR模型在西班牙、英国和美国的累积病例数方面表现优于其他国家。我们的实验允许早期识别,并有助于更好地理解使用线性和非线性模型组合预测MPXV病例。
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引用次数: 0
Link Prediction in Human Complex Network Based on Random Walk with Global Topological Features 基于全局拓扑特征随机行走的人类复杂网络链接预测
Pub Date : 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.3991/itdaf.v1i2.39675
Syed Shah Hussain, Muhammad Arif, O. Inayat, Haji Gul
Link Prediction in Human Complex Networks aims to predict the missing, deleted, or future link formations. These complex networks are represented graphically, consisting of nodes and links, also referred to as vertices and edges, respectively. We employ Link Prediction techniques on four different human-related networks to determine the most effective methods in the Human Complex domain. The techniques utilized are similarity-based, primarily focused on determining the similarity score of each network. We select four algorithms that demonstrated superior results in other complex networks and implement them on human-related networks. Our goal is to predict links that have been removed from the network in order to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the applied techniques. To accomplish this, we convert the datasets into adjacency matrices and divide them into training and probe sets. The training session is then conducted, followed by the testing of the data. The selected techniques are implemented to calculate the similarity score, and the accuracy is subsequently measured for each dataset. This approach facilitates a comprehensive comparative analysis of the various predicting techniques to determine the most effective one.
人类复杂网络中的链路预测旨在预测缺失、删除或未来的链路形成。这些复杂的网络用图形表示,由节点和链接组成,也分别称为顶点和边。我们在四种不同的人类相关网络上使用链接预测技术来确定人类复杂领域中最有效的方法。所使用的技术是基于相似度的,主要侧重于确定每个网络的相似度得分。我们选择了在其他复杂网络中表现出优异结果的四种算法,并将它们实现在与人类相关的网络上。我们的目标是预测已经从网络中删除的链接,以评估所应用技术的预测准确性。为了实现这一点,我们将数据集转换成邻接矩阵,并将它们分为训练集和探测集。然后进行培训,然后对数据进行测试。所选择的技术被实现来计算相似性得分,并随后测量每个数据集的准确性。这种方法有助于对各种预测技术进行全面的比较分析,以确定最有效的预测技术。
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引用次数: 0
Survey of VR Products to Treat Social Phobia among College Students Based on Logistic Regression and K-Means Clustering Analysis 基于Logistic回归和k均值聚类分析的VR产品对大学生社交恐惧症治疗效果的调查
Pub Date : 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.3991/itdaf.v1i2.34033
Quan Li, J. Qiu, Xiaoying Liu, Caimeng Huang, Ling Liang
Social phobia or social anxiety disorder, is characterized by a fear of embarrassing situations in front of others, leading to long-term chronic anxiety disorders. The purpose of our study is to examine the market prospects of using virtual reality (VR) technology for the treatment of social phobia. Specifically, we aim to investigate the current prevalence of social phobia among college students in eight universities in Guilin and explore their willingness to adopt VR technology as a treatment option. To achieve this, we utilized various data collection methods, including questionnaire surveys, literature surveys, and field interviews. Through descriptive statistical analysis we gained insights into the respondents’ demographics and their perceptions of social phobia and its treatment. Subsequently, we constructed a binary logistic regression model to identify the influencing factors contributing to social phobia among college students. Additionally, we conducted factor analysis, which revealed that the aspects of service quality, safety, and environmental quality were or utmost concern. Finally, we employed K-Means cluster analysis to differentiate the distinctive characteristics of potential users and develop effective strategies for the advancement of VR technology in social phobia treatment.
社交恐惧症或社交焦虑障碍,其特征是害怕在他人面前尴尬的情况,导致长期慢性焦虑障碍。本研究的目的是探讨使用虚拟现实(VR)技术治疗社交恐惧症的市场前景。具体来说,我们的目的是调查桂林市八所大学的大学生社交恐惧症的流行情况,并探讨他们采用VR技术作为治疗选择的意愿。为此,我们采用了问卷调查、文献调查和实地访谈等多种数据收集方法。通过描述性统计分析,我们深入了解了受访者的人口统计数据以及他们对社交恐惧症及其治疗的看法。随后,我们构建了二元logistic回归模型来识别大学生社交恐惧症的影响因素。此外,我们亦进行因子分析,结果显示服务质素、安全及环境质素是顾客最关心的三个方面。最后,我们使用K-Means聚类分析来区分潜在用户的鲜明特征,并制定有效的策略来推进VR技术在社交恐惧症治疗中的应用。
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引用次数: 0
National Wealth 国家财富
Pub Date : 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.3991/itdaf.v1i2.38231
Otilia Manta
One of the crucial factors that contribute to establishing well-being at the level of the world economies, as recognized by institutions such as the World Bank, is the management and distribution of the national wealth at both the national and global levels. Throughout history, each state has relied on the resources it possess and protects. In today’s world, it is more important than ever to have knowledge of and inventory these resources, not only to support one’s own economic sectors, but also to actively contribute to economies in need. The definition of national wealth is particularly significant in the context of ongoing discussions about limited resources at the global level. Moreover, it is crucial to highlight the defining elements of economic development at both the national and global levels. Such developments cannot be achieved without considering the unique characteristics of each state, including their strengths and weaknesses, particularly in terms of their resources. This paper aims to explore conceptual aspects and reference indicators for measuring national wealth. Doing so not only serves as an indicator of the sustainability of our economy but also provides a reference indicator for states worldwide.
如世界银行等机构所承认的,有助于在世界经济一级建立福利的关键因素之一是在国家和全球一级管理和分配国家财富。纵观历史,每个国家都依赖于它所拥有和保护的资源。在当今世界,了解和盘点这些资源比以往任何时候都更加重要,这不仅是为了支持本国的经济部门,也是为了积极为有需要的经济体做出贡献。在目前关于全球有限资源的讨论中,国民财富的定义尤为重要。此外,必须在国家和全球两级突出经济发展的决定性因素。如果不考虑每个国家的独特特点,包括它们的长处和弱点,特别是在资源方面,就不可能实现这种发展。本文旨在探讨衡量国民财富的概念方面和参考指标。这样做不仅是我们经济可持续性的一个指标,也为世界各国提供了一个参考指标。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing Construction Site Safety in Pakistan: A Proposed Health and Safety Framework Based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process 加强巴基斯坦建筑工地安全:基于层次分析法的健康与安全框架建议
Pub Date : 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.3991/itdaf.v1i2.41347
Saif Ur Rehman, XiaoYong Zhou, Guanhua Zhao, A. Arif, Iqra Naeem
Developing infrastructure is crucial for the economic growth of countries like Pakistan, which are facing financial challenges. However, the construction industry is complex and uncertain, with various associated risks. The purpose of this study is to develop a proactive health and safety strategy by identifying the risk factors that pose a threat to the safety of construction workers in Pakistan. Pairwise comparison matrices were constructed using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach for individual groups and the total sample. This process generated weights, consistency indices, and consistency ratios to validate the data. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM) was used to evaluate the identified threats. Based on the identified health and safety risk factors, a general matrix, as well as first and second- level ambiguous relations were created. Additionally, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix was developed. The centesimal values of the goal layer were found to be higher (3.72) than the values of the factors, including unsafe acts (13.08), accidents and hazards (25.14), policies and management (12.15), managing workers at the worksite (6.12), and management of worksite (5.07). The results indicated that all these factors significantly affect health and security in construction projects. Based on these findings, corrective measures could be implemented at the strategic and planning levels to strengthen and regulate these barriers.
发展基础设施对巴基斯坦等面临财政挑战的国家的经济增长至关重要。然而,建筑行业是复杂和不确定的,有各种相关的风险。这项研究的目的是通过确定对巴基斯坦建筑工人的安全构成威胁的风险因素,制定一项积极主动的健康和安全战略。使用层次分析法(AHP)对个体组和总样本构建两两比较矩阵。该过程生成权重、一致性指数和一致性比率来验证数据。采用模糊综合评价法(FCEM)对识别出的威胁进行评价。在确定健康安全风险因素的基础上,建立了一般矩阵,并建立了一、二级模糊关系。并建立了模糊综合评价矩阵。目标层的百分位值(3.72)高于不安全行为(13.08)、事故和危害(25.14)、政策和管理(12.15)、现场工人管理(6.12)和现场管理(5.07)等因素的百分位值。结果表明,这些因素对建设项目的健康与安全影响显著。根据这些调查结果,可以在战略和规划各级执行纠正措施,以加强和管制这些障碍。
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引用次数: 0
The Development Path of Guilin Gongcheng Camellia oleifera Based on SEM Data Processing and Analysis 基于SEM数据处理与分析的桂林恭城油茶发展路径
Pub Date : 2023-04-03 DOI: 10.3991/itdaf.v1i1.37009
Shanshan Yang, J. Qiu, Xinze Wang
In order to thoroughly investigate the development status of Gongcheng Camellia oleifera, study the development path, this paper uses SPSS software, KMO test and Bartlett spherical test were carried out on the data, and it was found that there was correlation between the variables, and factor analysis was effective. Then, Amos software is used to model it, and the structural equation model diagram is obtained; Realize the visualization of survey data with the help of software fine Bi; Finally, deeply excavate and use the data to explore the factors that affect the marketing and promotion of Gongcheng Camellia oleifera, and put forward feasible solutions to improve the sales volume of Gongcheng Camellia oleifera, promote industrial poverty alleviation, and help rural revitalization.
为了深入调查贡城油茶的发展现状,研究其发展路径,本文运用SPSS软件,对数据进行KMO检验和Bartlett球面检验,发现各变量之间存在相关性,因子分析有效。然后利用Amos软件对其进行建模,得到结构方程模型图;借助fine Bi软件实现调查数据的可视化;最后,深入挖掘并运用数据,探索影响拱城油茶营销推广的因素,提出切实可行的解决方案,提高拱城油茶销量,促进产业扶贫,助力乡村振兴。
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引用次数: 0
ResFCNET: A Skin Lesion Segmentation Method Based on a Deep Residual Fully Convolutional Neural Network 基于深度残差全卷积神经网络的皮肤病灶分割方法
Pub Date : 2023-04-03 DOI: 10.3991/itdaf.v1i1.35723
Mustapha Adamu Mohammed, Obeng Bismark, S. Alornyo, M. Asante, Bernard Obo Essah
Melanoma, a high-level variant of skin cancer is very difficult to distinguish from other skin cancer types in patients. The presence of large variety of sizes of lesions, fuzzy boundaries and irregular shaped nature, with low contrast between skin lesions and surrounding fresh areas makes it clinically difficult to detect and treat melanoma. In this paper, we propose Residual Full Convolutional Network (ResFCNET) skin lesion recognition model that combines residual learning and full convolutional network to perform semantic segmentation of skin lesion. Based on secondary feature extraction and classification, experiment was done to verify the effectiveness of our model using ISBI 2016 and ISBI 2017 dataset. Results showed that residual convolution neural network obtain high precision classification. This technique is novel and provides a compelling insight for medical image segmentation.
黑色素瘤是皮肤癌的一种高级变体,很难与患者的其他皮肤癌类型区分开来。黑素瘤的病变大小多样,边界模糊,形状不规则,皮肤病变与周围新鲜区域对比低,给临床发现和治疗带来困难。本文提出了残差全卷积网络(ResFCNET)皮肤病变识别模型,该模型结合残差学习和全卷积网络对皮肤病变进行语义分割。在二次特征提取和分类的基础上,利用ISBI 2016和ISBI 2017数据集对模型的有效性进行了实验验证。结果表明,残差卷积神经网络具有较高的分类精度。该技术新颖,为医学图像分割提供了令人信服的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Investigation and Analysis of Private Doctors Helping the Elderly Care Market 私人医生助老市场调查与分析
Pub Date : 2023-04-03 DOI: 10.3991/itdaf.v1i1.34341
Li Fei-Fei, J. Qiu
China has a high degree of population aging, pension has become a hot topic. Based on this, this study focuses on the private doctor service assisted pension market, and investigates doctors, young people and the elderly respectively. The correlation analysis was used to obtain the relationship between respondents' willingness to accept private doctors and various factors. Further with the help of Logistic regression model, it is concluded that doctors in private hospitals, young and middle-aged elderly men and elderly people living alone and with high cost of living are more willing to accept the service of private doctors.
中国人口高度老龄化,养老问题已成为热门话题。基于此,本研究以私人医生服务辅助养老市场为研究对象,分别对医生、年轻人和老年人进行调查。通过相关分析得到被调查者接受私人医生意愿与各因素之间的关系。进一步运用Logistic回归模型,得出民营医院医生、中青年男性老年人和生活成本较高的独居老年人更愿意接受私人医生服务的结论。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
IETI Transactions on Data Analysis and Forecasting (iTDAF)
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