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Estimating time-varying parameters for monthly water balance model using particle filter: assimilation of stream flow data 用粒子滤波估计月水平衡模型的时变参数:径流数据的同化
Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.3741/JKWRA.2021.54.6.365
Jeonghyeon Choi
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引用次数: 0
Two-dimensional numerical experiment considering cohort size and wood jam characteristic on driftwood 考虑队列大小和浮木堵塞特性的二维数值实验
Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.3741/JKWRA.2021.54.6.407
T. Kang
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引用次数: 0
Improved method of the conventional flow duration curve by using daily mode discharges 利用日模流量对常规流量持续时间曲线进行了改进
Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.3741/JKWRA.2021.54.6.355
Taejin Park
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引用次数: 1
Calculation of future rainfall scenarios to consider the impact of climate change in Seoul City’s hydraulic facility design standards 计算未来降雨情景,考虑气候变化对首尔市水利设施的影响,制定设计标准
Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.3741/JKWRA.2021.54.6.419
Sun-Kwon Yoon
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引用次数: 0
Establishment of flood forecasting and warning system in the un-gauged small and medium watershed through ODA 通过官方发展援助在未计量的中小流域建立洪水预报预警系统
Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.3741/JKWRA.2021.54.6.381
D. Koh
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引用次数: 1
Estimation of reflectivity-rainfall relationship parameters and uncertainty assessment for high resolution rainfall information 高分辨率降雨信息反射率-降雨关系参数估算及不确定性评估
Pub Date : 2021-05-01 DOI: 10.3741/JKWRA.2021.54.5.321
Tae-Jeong Kim
A fixed reflectivity-rainfall relationship approach, such as the Marshall-Palmer relationship, for an entire year and different seasons, can be problematic in cases where the relationship varies spatially and temporally throughout a region. From this perspective, this study explores the use of long-term radar reflectivity for South Korea to obtain a nationwide calibrated Z-R relationship and the associated uncertainties within a Bayesian inference framework. A calibrated spatially structured pattern in the parameters exists, particularly for the wet season and parameter for the dry season. A pronounced region of high values during the wet and dry seasons may be partially associated with storm movements in that season. Overall, the radar rainfall fields based on the proposed modeling procedure are similar to the observed rainfall fields. In contrast, the radar rainfall fields obtained from the existing Marshall-Palmer relationship show a systematic underestimation. In the event of high impact weather, it is expected that the value of national radar resources can be improved by establishing an active watershed-level hydrological analysis system.
固定的反射率-降雨关系方法,如马歇尔-帕尔默关系,适用于全年和不同季节,在关系在空间和时间上在整个地区变化的情况下可能会有问题。从这个角度来看,本研究探讨了韩国长期雷达反射率的使用,以获得全国校准的Z-R关系以及贝叶斯推断框架内的相关不确定性。在参数中存在一种校准的空间结构模式,特别是在雨季和旱季参数中。在干湿季节显著的高值区域可能部分与该季节的风暴运动有关。总体而言,基于所提出的模拟程序的雷达降雨场与观测的降雨场相似。相比之下,从现有Marshall-Palmer关系获得的雷达降雨场显示出系统性的低估。在高影响天气的情况下,通过建立主动的流域水文分析系统,有望提高国家雷达资源的价值。
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引用次数: 0
Radar rainfall prediction based on deep learning considering temporal consistency 考虑时间一致性的基于深度学习的雷达降雨预测
Pub Date : 2021-05-01 DOI: 10.3741/JKWRA.2021.54.5.301
Hongjoon Shin
In this study, we tried to improve the performance of the existing U-net-based deep learning rainfall prediction model, which can weaken the meaning of time series order. For this, ConvLSTM2D U-Net structure model considering temporal consistency of data was applied, and we evaluated accuracy of the ConvLSTM2D U-Net model using a RainNet model and an extrapolation-based advection model. In addition, we tried to improve the uncertainty in the model training process by performing learning not only with a single model but also with 10 ensemble models. The trained neural network rainfall prediction model was optimized to generate 10-minute advance prediction data using four consecutive data of the past 30 minutes from the present. The results of deep learning rainfall prediction models are difficult to identify schematically distinct differences, but with ConvLSTM2D U-Net, the magnitude of the prediction error is the smallest and the location of rainfall is relatively accurate. In particular, the ensemble ConvLSTM2D U-Net showed high CSI, low MAE, and a narrow error range, and predicted rainfall more accurately and stable prediction performance than other models. However, the prediction performance for a specific point was very low compared to the prediction performance for the entire area, and the deep learning rainfall prediction model also had limitations. Through this study, it was confirmed that the ConvLSTM2D U-Net neural network structure to account for the change of time could increase the prediction accuracy, but there is still a limitation of the convolution deep neural network model due to spatial smoothing in the strong rainfall region or detailed rainfall prediction.
在本研究中,我们试图改善现有的基于u -net的深度学习降雨预测模型的性能,该模型可以削弱时间序列顺序的意义。为此,我们采用了考虑数据时间一致性的ConvLSTM2D U-Net结构模型,并利用RainNet模型和基于外推的平流模型对ConvLSTM2D U-Net模型的精度进行了评估。此外,我们试图通过对单个模型和10个集成模型进行学习来改善模型训练过程中的不确定性。对训练好的神经网络降雨预测模型进行了优化,利用从现在到过去30分钟的4个连续数据生成提前10分钟的预测数据。深度学习降雨预测模型的结果很难识别出明显的差异,但使用ConvLSTM2D U-Net预测误差的幅度最小,降雨的位置也相对准确。其中,集成模型ConvLSTM2D U-Net具有高CSI、低MAE、误差范围窄的特点,预报精度高,预报性能稳定。然而,与整个区域的预测性能相比,对特定点的预测性能非常低,深度学习降雨预测模型也存在局限性。通过本研究,证实了考虑时间变化的ConvLSTM2D U-Net神经网络结构可以提高预测精度,但卷积深度神经网络模型在强降雨区或细部降雨预测中仍存在空间平滑的局限性。
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引用次数: 1
A study on estimation of agricultural water usage in river consider hydrological condition 考虑水文条件的河流农业用水量估算方法研究
Pub Date : 2021-05-01 DOI: 10.3741/JKWRA.2021.54.5.311
Jaewon Kwak
The agricultural water, which occupy about 61% of total water usage in the South Korea, is significantly objective to archieve effecitive water resources management. The objective of the study is to suggest a simple method in actual practice that could be used to estimate agricultural water usage in river considering hydrological condition. Historical record of agricultural water usage and runoff, which take account for hydrological condition of the basin, were obtained for totally 27 river basins. As the result, the high threshold value of the agricultural water usage rates compared to maximum usage amount has a particular correlations to the percent of normal year runoff for last 2 month, and threshold line of agricultural water usage rates was derived using the quantile regressions. Finally, two dimensionless threshold line and empirical formulas that described the correlation between the percent of normal year runoff for last 2 month and the agricultural water usage rate compared to maximum usage amount were derived. Also, the simple criteria to select which line and formula based on the characteristics of the basins was suggested but it need further studies. The result of the study could be used as an elemantary data in actual practice for water resoureces management.
农业用水约占韩国总用水量的61%,是实现有效水资源管理的重要目标。研究的目的是在实际应用中提出一种简便的方法,可以用于考虑水文条件的河流农业用水量估算。在考虑流域水文条件的基础上,获得了27个流域的农业用水和径流的历史记录。结果表明,近2个月农业用水量相对于最大用水量的高阈值与正常年径流量百分比具有特殊的相关性,并利用分位数回归推导出农业用水量的阈值线。最后,导出了描述近2个月正常年径流量百分比与农业用水量与最大用水量之间相关性的二维阈值线和经验公式。根据盆地的特点,提出了选择哪条线和公式的简单标准,但还需进一步研究。研究结果可作为水资源管理实践的基础数据。
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引用次数: 3
Comparison of the flow estimation methods through GIUH rainfall-runoff model for flood warning system on Banseong stream 基于GIUH降雨径流模型的盘城河洪水预警系统流量估算方法比较
Pub Date : 2021-05-01 DOI: 10.3741/JKWRA.2021.54.5.347
Kiyoung Seong
In the past few years, various damages have occurred in the vicinity of rivers due to flooding. In order to alleviate such flood damage, structural and non-structural measures are being established, and one of the important non-structural measures is to establish a flood warning system. In general, in order to establish a flood warning system, the water level of the flood alarm reference point is set, the critical flow corresponding thereto is calculated, and the warning precipitation amount corresponding to the critical flow is calculated through the Geomorphological Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (GIUH) rainfall-runoff model. In particular, when calculating the critical flow, various studies have calculated the critical flow through the Manning formula. To compare the adequacy of this, in this study, the critical flow was calculated through the HEC-RAS model and compared with the value obtained from Manning’s equation. As a result of the comparison, it was confirmed that the critical flow calculated by the Manning equation adopted excessive alarm precipitation values and lead a very high flow compared to the existing design precipitation. In contrast, the critical flow of HEC-RAS presented an appropriate alarm precipitation value and was found to be appropriate to the annual average alarm standard. From the results of this study, it seems more appropriate to calculate the critical flow through HEC-RAS, rather than through the existing Manning equation, in a situation where various river projects have been conducted resulting that most of the rivers have been surveyed.
在过去的几年里,由于洪水,河流附近发生了各种破坏。为了减轻这种洪水的危害,人们正在制定结构性和非结构性措施,其中一项重要的非结构性措施是建立洪水预警系统。一般情况下,为了建立洪水预警系统,设置洪水报警参考点的水位,计算其对应的临界流量,通过GIUH降雨-径流模型计算临界流量对应的预警降水量。特别是在计算临界流量时,各种研究都是通过曼宁公式计算临界流量的。为了比较其充分性,本研究通过HEC-RAS模型计算临界流量,并与Manning方程得到的值进行比较。通过对比,证实了Manning方程计算的临界流量采用了过高的报警降水值,与现有设计降水相比,导致了非常大的流量。相反,HEC-RAS临界流量呈现出适宜的报警降水值,且适宜于年平均报警标准。从本研究的结果来看,在进行了各种河流项目并对大部分河流进行了调查的情况下,通过HEC-RAS计算临界流量似乎比通过现有的Manning方程更合适。
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引用次数: 1
Analysis of bifurcation characteristics for the Seolmacheon experimental catchment based on variable scale of source basin 基于变尺度源盆地的西马川实验流域分岔特征分析
Pub Date : 2021-05-01 DOI: 10.3741/JKWRA.2021.54.5.289
Joo-Cheol Kim
This study analyzes bifurcation characteristics of the Seolmacheon experimental catchment by extracting the shape variation of channel network due to variable scale of source basin or threshold area. As the area of source basin decreases, a bifurcation process of channel network occurs within the basin of interest, resulting in the elongation of channel network (increase of total channel length) as well as the expansion of channel network (increase of the source number). In the former case, the elongation of channel reaches overwhelms the generation of sources, whereas, in the latter case, the drainage path network tends to fulfill the inner space of the basin of interest reflecting the opposite trend. Therefore, scale invariance of natural channel network could be expressed to be a balanced geomorphologic feature between the elongation of channel network and the expansion of channel network due to decrease of source basin scale. The bifurcation structure of the Seolmacheon experimental catchment can be characterized by the coexistence of the elongation and scale invariance of channel network, and thus a further study is required to find out which factor is more crucial to rainfall transformation into runoff.
本研究通过提取不同源区或阈值区域尺度下河道网络形态的变化,分析了西马川实验流域的分岔特征。随着源盆地面积的减小,目标流域内河道网络发生分岔过程,导致河道网络延伸(河道总长度增加)和河道网络扩展(河道源数量增加)。前一种情况下,河道河段的延伸压倒了水源地的生成,而后一种情况下,排水路径网络倾向于满足感兴趣盆地的内部空间,反映了相反的趋势。因此,天然河道网络的尺度不变性可以表述为一种因源盆地规模减小而导致河道网络延伸和扩张的平衡地貌特征。西马川实验流域的分岔结构具有沟道网络伸长性和尺度不变性共存的特征,哪一个因素对降雨转化为径流更为关键,需要进一步研究。
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引用次数: 1
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Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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