Background: The treatment response to radiotherapy of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) primary tumors and different types of tumor thrombus under identical radiation doses remains uncertain.
Objectives: This multicenter study aimed to evaluate and compare the radiotherapy responses of primary tumors (PT), portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT), and hepatic vein tumor thrombus (HVTT) in HCC patients and to establish a prediction model for treatment response.
Design: This multicenter retrospective cohort study analyzed the treatment response of 242 HCC patients with macrovascular tumor thrombus who received radiotherapy combined with systemic therapy from five hospitals.
Methods: The objective response rate (ORR) was evaluated using Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) V1.1 and modified RECIST (mRECIST) criteria. Independent factors of treatment response were identified by logistic regression analysis and used to create a nomogram. Model performance was evaluated through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).
Results: Among the entire cohort, the ORRs evaluated by RECIST were 51.65% for PT, 56.32% for PVTT, and 81.93% for HVTT; the ORRs evaluated by mRECIST were 55.79% for PT, 62.63% for PVTT, and 87.95% for HVTT. Both criteria demonstrated that HVTT exhibited significantly higher response rates than PT and PVTT (p < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified irradiated primary tumor size, biologically effective dose, and tumor thrombus type as independent predictors of response in the radiation-field lesions. The developed nomogram showed good discriminative ability with an AUC of 0.788 in the training cohort and 0.736 in the external validation cohort. Calibration and DCA indicated that the model provided reliable predictions and substantial clinical benefit.
Conclusion: Under identical radiation doses, macrovascular tumor thrombus, especially HVTT, is associated with a higher response rate to radiotherapy compared to HCC primary tumors. The nomogram demonstrated good predictive performance, but prospective validation in larger cohorts is still warranted.
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