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Identifying Productivity Spillovers Using the Structure of Production Networks 利用生产网络结构识别生产率溢出效应
Samuel Bazzi, A. Chari, S. Nataraj, Alexander D. Rothenberg
Despite the importance of agglomeration externalities in theoretical work, evidence for their nature, scale, and scope remains elusive, particularly in developing countries. Identification of productivity spillovers between firms is a challenging task, and estimation typically requires, at a minimum, panel data, which are often not available in developing country contexts. In this paper, we develop a novel identification strategy that uses information on the network structure of producer relationships to provide estimates of the size of productivity spillovers. Our strategy builds on that proposed by Bramoulle et al. (2009) for estimating peer effects, and is one of the first applications of this idea to the estimation of productivity spillovers. We improve upon the network structure identification strategy by using panel data and validate it with exchange-rate induced trade shocks that provide additional identifying variation. We apply this strategy to a long panel dataset of manufacturers in Indonesia to provide new estimates of the scale and size of productivity spillovers. Our results suggest positive productivity spillovers between manufacturers in Indonesia, but estimates of TFP spillovers are considerably smaller than similar estimates based on firm-level data from the U.S. and Europe, and they are only observed in a few industries.
尽管集聚外部性在理论工作中很重要,但其性质、规模和范围的证据仍然难以获得,特别是在发展中国家。确定企业之间的生产率溢出是一项具有挑战性的任务,估计通常至少需要面板数据,而这些数据在发展中国家往往无法获得。在本文中,我们开发了一种新的识别策略,利用生产者关系的网络结构信息来提供生产率溢出规模的估计。我们的策略建立在Bramoulle等人(2009)提出的估算对等效应的策略的基础上,并且是将这一想法首次应用于生产率溢出估算的策略之一。我们通过使用面板数据改进了网络结构识别策略,并通过汇率引起的贸易冲击来验证它,这些冲击提供了额外的识别变化。我们将这一策略应用于印度尼西亚制造商的长面板数据集,以提供对生产率溢出的规模和大小的新估计。我们的研究结果表明,印度尼西亚的制造商之间存在积极的生产率溢出效应,但对全要素生产率溢出效应的估计远远小于基于美国和欧洲公司层面数据的类似估计,而且仅在少数行业中观察到这种效应。
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引用次数: 0
Exact and Superlative Measurement of the Luenberger-Hicks-Moorsteen Productivity Indicator Luenberger-Hicks-Moorsteen生产率指标的精确和最高级测量
Frederic Ang, P. Kerstens
This paper shows that the Bennet-Bowley profit indicator is an exact and superlative approximation of the additively complete Luenberger-Hicks-Moorsteen productivity indicator when the input and output directional distance functions can be represented up to the second order by a quadratic functional form. It also establishes the conditions under which the exact and superlative measures of the Luenberger productivity indicator and Luenberger-Hicks-Moorsteen productivity indicator coincide.
本文证明了当输入和输出方向距离函数可以用二次函数形式表示到二阶时,Bennet-Bowley利润指标是加性完全Luenberger-Hicks-Moorsteen生产率指标的精确和最高级逼近。它还确定了卢恩贝格生产率指标和卢恩贝格-希克斯-穆尔斯蒂恩生产率指标准确和最高的测量相一致的条件。
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引用次数: 1
Income Disparities, Population and Migration Flows Over the 21st Century 21世纪的收入差距、人口和移民流动
F. Docquier, Joël Machado
This paper provides worldwide projections of population, educational attainment, international migration and income for the 21st century. We develop and parametrize a dynamic, stylized model of the world economy that accounts for the key interdependencies between demographic and economic variables. Our baseline scenario is in line with the ‘high-fertility’ population prospects of the United Nations, assumes constant education and migration policies, long-run absolute convergence in total factor productivity (TFP) between emerging and high-income countries, and the absence of economic takeoff in Africa. It predicts a rise in the income share of Asia (from 38 to 59 percent of the world income) and in the demographic share of Africa (from 10 to 25 percent of the world population). However, over the 21st century, the worldwide proportion of adult migrants will only increase by one percentage point (from 3.5 to 4.5 percent). Half of this change is explained by the increased attractiveness of China and India; and the remaining part is explained by the increased migration pressure from Africa to Western Europe. Keeping its immigration policy unchanged, the 15 members of the European Union will see their average immigration rate increase from 7.5 to 17.2 percent. On the contrary, immigration rates will remain stable in the other high-income countries. Then, we assess the sensitivity of our projections to changes in migration policies, TFP disparities, fertility and education. The evolution of productivity in emerging economies and in Africa will have a drastic impact on the worldwide population size, income disparities and the migration pressure to the European Union. The world economy will also be drastically affected if TFP convergence is accompanied by a fall in migration costs to China and India. However, a large increase in the average European immigration rate is obtained under all the scenarios. More than ever, the management of immigration will become a major societal challenge for Europe.
本文提供了21世纪全球人口、教育程度、国际移民和收入的预测。我们开发了一个动态的、程式化的世界经济模型,并将其参数化,该模型解释了人口和经济变量之间的关键相互依赖关系。我们的基线情景与联合国的“高生育率”人口前景一致,假设持续的教育和移民政策,新兴国家和高收入国家之间的全要素生产率(TFP)长期绝对趋同,以及非洲没有经济起飞。它预测亚洲的收入份额(从占世界收入的38%上升到59%)和非洲的人口份额(从占世界人口的10%上升到25%)将会上升。然而,在21世纪,全球成年移民的比例只会增加一个百分点(从3.5%增加到4.5%)。这种变化的一半可以用中国和印度的吸引力增加来解释;剩下的部分可以解释为从非洲到西欧的移民压力的增加。如果保持移民政策不变,欧盟15个成员国的平均移民率将从7.5%上升到17.2%。相反,其他高收入国家的移民率将保持稳定。然后,我们评估了我们的预测对移民政策、TFP差异、生育率和教育变化的敏感性。新兴经济体和非洲生产力的演变将对世界人口规模、收入差距和对欧洲联盟的移民压力产生重大影响。如果TFP趋同的同时,中国和印度的移民成本下降,世界经济也将受到巨大影响。然而,在所有情况下,欧洲平均移民率都有很大的增长。移民管理将比以往任何时候都更成为欧洲面临的重大社会挑战。
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引用次数: 6
Cost Functions and Determinants of Unit Cost Effects in Horizontal Airline M&As 航空公司横向并购中单位成本效应的成本函数和决定因素
Sveinn Vidar Gudmundsson, Rico Merkert, Renato Redondi
This paper analyses the unit cost effects of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) using linear, quadratic, and translog cost functions. In addition to a basic unit cost model we specify separate models for distress, profit, relative size, and cost difference, among the merging firms. We use a sample of 19 horizontal M&As in the international airline industry and data spanning from 1980 to 2012. Our models show that M&As do not affect unit costs in a significant way, unless the relative size difference of the merging firms is large, in which case we detect an increase in unit costs.
本文运用线性、二次和超对数成本函数分析了企业并购的单位成本效应。除了基本的单位成本模型外,我们还为合并企业的困境、利润、相对规模和成本差异分别指定了模型。我们使用了1980年至2012年期间国际航空业19起横向并购的样本和数据。我们的模型表明,并购不会对单位成本产生显著影响,除非并购公司的相对规模差异很大,在这种情况下,我们发现单位成本增加。
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引用次数: 11
한국의 수입구조 결정요인과 기업분포에 미치는 영향 (Determinants of Korea's Import and Its Effects on Firm's Distribution) (Determinants of Korea's Import and Its Effects on Firm's Distribution)
Young Gui Kim, Hyeri Park, H. Keum, Seungrae Lee
Korean Abstract: 본 연구에서는 한국의 수입구조에 대한 이해를 높이기 위하여 수입구조를 수출 및 해외투자와의 상호작용 속에서 파악하고, 수입이 기업의 퇴출과 구성요소별 생산성을 통해 기업의 분포구조에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 이를 토대로 수출 및 투자와 연동된 새로운 수입통계 시스템 도입, 무역조정 지원제도의 개선, 유형별 수입을 고려한 맞춤형 대책수립을 제안하였다. English Abstract: Recently, our trades have been declining for the second year in a row, due to the maturity of the global value chain and the delay in the recovery of the world economy. In particular, imports decline more than exports, but trade surplus is rather expanding. Policy makers and experts expressed concern about the decline in exports, but did not show interest in decreased imports. Behind these responses, there is dichotomy that the increase in exports is positive but the increase in imports is negative. More importantly, there is still a lack of clear understanding of Korea's import structure. In this paper, we analyze determinants of Korea's imports in the context of the interaction between exports and foreign investments, and investigate the effects of imports on firms' exit and productivity in order to understand Korea's import structure and distributional influences of imports. Since 1988, Korea's overall imports have increased substantially, except for the currency crisis and the period of the global financial crisis, but it has recorded a continuous declining trend due to recent sharp drop in imports of raw materials. Major importing countries have changed from developed countries in the past to resource-abundant countries and developing countries. By type, intermediate goods account for about 50% of imports, raw materials and capital goods account for 20% respectively, and consumption goods account for around 10%. In order to analyze determinants of imports by type, we constructed theoretical model and found two propositions. First, regardless of types, imports will increase as the economic sizes of importing countries become larger, and will decrease as the transaction cost with the importing partner increases. Second, while imports of consumption goods increase as the income level and market size of importing countries increases, imports of intermediate goods and raw materials used as production inputs increases as the outputs and exports of industries increase. The results of the empirical analysis based on the theoretical model are summarized as follows. First, as the export becomes more active, imports of intermediate goods and raw materials used as production input factors will increase, while imports of consumer goods will decrease. Second, imports of intermediate goods and raw materials are positively related with inward foreign direct investment (FDI), but imports of consumption goods are negatively affected by inward FDI. Third, the more industries spend R&D investments, the more the industries import intermediate goods and raw materials. Fourth, the effects of import liberalization are different for each type of import. The influence of the tariff rate was limited for raw materials and capital good
Korean Abstract:本研究为了提高对韩国进口结构的理解,从出口及海外投资的相互作用中把握进口结构,分析了进口通过企业退出和各构成要素的生产性对企业分布结构产生的影响。在此基础上,提出了引进与出口及投资联动的新的进口统计系统、改善贸易调整支援制度、建立考虑各类型进口的量身定做型对策。英语Abstract: Recently,我们的trades have been declining for the second year in a row, due to the maturity of the global value chain and the delay in the recovery of the world economy。In particular, imports decline more than exports, but trade surplus is rather expanding。Policy makers and experts expressed concern about the decline in exports, but did not show interest in decreased imports。Behind these responses there is dichotomy that the increase in exports is positive but the increase in imports is negative。More importantly, there is still a lack of clear understanding of Korea's import structure。In this paper,我们analyze determinants of Korea's imports In the context of the interaction between exports and foreign investmentsand investigate the effects of imports on firms' exit and productivity in order to understand Korea's import structure and distributional influences of imports。Since 1988, Korea's overall imports have increased substantially, except for the currency crisis and the period of the global financial crisis,but it has recorded a continuous declining trend due to recent sharp drop in imports of raw materials。Major importing countries have changed from developed countries in the past to resource-abundant countries and developing countries。By type, intermediate goods account for about 50% of imports, raw materials and capital goods account for 20% respectively, and consumption goods account for around 10%In order to analyze determinants of imports by type, we constructed theoretical model and found two propositions。First, regardless of types, imports will increase as the economic sizes of importing countries become larger, and will decrease as the transaction cost with the importing partner increases。【小题3】while imports of consumption goods increase as the income level and market size of importing countries increasesintermediate goods and raw materials used as production increases as the outputs and exports of industries increasesThe results of The empirical analysis based on The theoretical model are summarized as follows。First, as the export becomes more active, imports of intermediate goods and raw materials used as production input factors will increase, while imports of consumer goods will decrease。“Second, imports of intermediate goods and raw materials are positively related with inward foreign direct investment (FDI), but imports of consumption goods are negatively affected by inward FDI”。the more industries spend r&d investments, the more the industries import intermediate goods and raw materials。effects of import liberalization are different for each type of import。The influence of The tariff rate was limited for raw materials and capital goods imports。According to the analysis of Korea's import structure, imports of consumption goods declined by 0.137%,and imports of intermediate m
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引用次数: 0
Offshoring and Job Polarisation between Firms 离岸外包和公司之间的工作两极分化
H. Egger, U. Kreickemeier, Christoph Moser, J. Wrona
We set up a general equilibrium model, in which offshoring to a low-wage country can lead to job polarisation in the high-wage country. Job polarisation is the result of a reallocation of labour across firms that differ in productivity and pay wages that are positively linked to their profits by a rent-sharing mechanism. Offshoring involves fixed and task-specific variable costs, and as a consequence it is chosen only by the most productive firms, and only for those tasks with the lowest variable offshoring costs. A reduction in those variable costs increases offshoring at the intensive and at the extensive margin, with domestic employment shifted from the newly offshoring firms in the middle of the productivity distribution to firms at the tails of this distribution, paying either very low or very high wages. We also study how the reallocation of labour across firms affects economy-wide unemployment. Offshoring reduces unemployment when it is confined to high-productivity firms, while this outcome is not guaranteed when offshoring is also chosen by low-productivity firms.
我们建立了一个一般均衡模型,其中离岸外包到低工资国家可能导致高工资国家的就业两极分化。工作两极分化是企业之间劳动力再分配的结果,这些企业在生产率和工资方面存在差异,通过租金分享机制,工资与利润呈正相关。离岸外包涉及固定成本和特定任务的可变成本,因此,只有生产率最高的公司才选择离岸外包,而且只有那些离岸外包可变成本最低的任务才选择离岸外包。这些可变成本的减少增加了密集和广泛边际的离岸外包,国内就业从生产率分布中间的新离岸外包公司转移到生产率分布尾部的公司,支付非常低或非常高的工资。我们还研究了企业间劳动力的再分配如何影响整个经济的失业率。当离岸外包仅限于高生产率企业时,它可以降低失业率,而当低生产率企业也选择离岸外包时,这一结果并不能得到保证。
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引用次数: 58
A Literature Review on Production Scheduling with the Drum-Buffer-Rope Technique 卷筒-缓冲绳技术生产调度的文献综述
H. A. Tayali
Minimizing production cost is a key element of the industry. To use resources efficiently, various concepts of operations management have been developed since the Industrial Revolution such as just in time, total quality control or lean manufacturing. Manufacturing shops – classified broadly as job, batch or flow shop according to process type, standardization level or quantity of production – continue to evolve by applying these various improvement approaches. Synchronous manufacturing and theory of constraints attempt to improve production processes by analyzing operational measures. They emphasize the importance of work in process levels and amend to have short term planning processes organized in accordance with the system constraints. This review tries to highlight the important connections between the drum-buffer-rope scheduling, single piece flow and operations-finance interface.
最小化生产成本是该行业的关键要素。为了有效地利用资源,自工业革命以来,各种运营管理的概念已经发展起来,如准时制、全面质量控制或精益生产。制造车间——根据工艺类型、标准化水平或生产数量大致分为作业车间、批量车间或流水车间——通过应用这些不同的改进方法继续发展。同步制造和约束理论试图通过分析操作措施来改进生产过程。它们强调过程层面工作的重要性,并修改为根据系统约束组织短期规划过程。本文试图强调鼓-缓冲-绳索调度、单件流和运营-财务接口之间的重要联系。
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引用次数: 2
A Welfare Evaluation of Tying Strategies 捆绑策略的福利评价
Amit Gayer, Oz Shy
We compare monopoly profit, consumer surplus, and total welfare associated with three commonly used tying strategies: no tying, pure tying, and mixed tying. Whereas the previous literature focused mainly on profit comparisons, this paper evaluates the relationship between component production costs and total welfare. We identify several market failures where the seller does not adopt the welfare-maximizing tying strategy. Finally, we explore how consumer exclusion rates (uncaptured market) are affected by tying strategy and some implications for unbundling regulation.
我们比较了三种常用的捆绑策略:不捆绑、纯捆绑和混合捆绑的垄断利润、消费者剩余和总福利。以往的文献主要关注利润比较,而本文评估了零部件生产成本与总福利之间的关系。我们确定了几种市场失灵,其中卖方不采用福利最大化捆绑策略。最后,我们探讨了消费者排斥率(未被占领的市场)如何受到捆绑策略的影响,以及对拆分监管的一些启示。
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引用次数: 4
Social Infrastructure and Productivity of Manufacturing Firms – Evidence from Pakistan 制造业企业的社会基础设施和生产力——来自巴基斯坦的证据
R. Ahmed
Does investment in social infrastructure affect the productivity of manufacturing firms in developing countries? To test this question, I empirically investigate the impact of social infrastructure indicators at district level on firm productivity using firm level data from Pakistan. I split my sample into rural and urban regions to capture the effect of regional disparities in investment in social goods while controlling for a potential selection bias from firms' decision to locate in regions with better infrastructure equipment. My findings reveal that indicators of health and education are positively and significantly related to firm level productivity in manufacturing industries in Pakistan. However, these results hold for urban districts only. For rural regions, both health and education show a negative impact on firm productivity.
社会基础设施投资是否影响发展中国家制造业企业的生产率?为了检验这个问题,我使用来自巴基斯坦的企业层面数据,实证调查了地区层面的社会基础设施指标对企业生产率的影响。我将样本分为农村和城市地区,以捕捉地区差异对社会产品投资的影响,同时控制企业决定在基础设施设备较好的地区选址的潜在选择偏差。我的研究结果表明,巴基斯坦制造业的健康和教育指标与企业一级生产率呈正相关。然而,这些结果只适用于城市地区。在农村地区,卫生和教育对企业生产率都有负面影响。
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引用次数: 4
Growth Factors of Industrial-Sector Value Added in 2015 2 - 9 2015年工业增加值增长要素
Ekaterina Astafieva
The results of decomposition of output growth suggest that in 2015 the main factor inputs increased while the gross value added (GVA) of industrial production dropped. Capital inputs play a dominant part in the structure of main factor inputs in industry. According to preliminary estimates, the total factor productivity (TFP) of the main industrial types of economic activity declined at faster rates than in the prior period.
产值增长分解结果表明,2015年主要要素投入增加,工业生产增加值下降。资本投入在产业主要要素投入结构中占主导地位。根据初步估计,主要工业类型经济活动的全要素生产率(TFP)下降速度比前一个时期更快。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
ERN: Production; Cost; Capital & Total Factor Productivity; Value Theory (Topic)
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