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ERN: Latin America & the Caribbean (Emerging Markets) (Topic)最新文献

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Informe de auditoría y su relación con el mercado integrado latinoamericano (MILA) (The Audit Report and Its Relationship with the Latin American Integrated Market) 审计报告及其与拉丁美洲一体化市场(MILA)的关系(审计报告及其与拉丁美洲一体化市场的关系)
Pub Date : 2020-06-19 DOI: 10.18601/16577175.n26.07
Belky Esperanza Gutiérrez Castañeda, Carlos Andrés Barrera Montoya, Daniela Pérez Noreña
El objetivo de la investigacion es evaluar la relacion del retorno esperado del precio de las acciones de las empresas que cotizan en el mercado integrado latinoamericano (MILA) frente a la divulgacion del dictamen del auditor en un periodo 2011-2017, siguiendo la metodologia de estudio de eventos (i) CAR; (ii) Fama & French; (iii) BHAR, ademas test de ARCH, correlaciones tradicionales y copulas gaussianas. Se identifico que la publicacion del dictamen es significativo, sin embargo, no existe una significancia estadisticamente representativa al momento de hacer un modelo de regresion multivariable y de correlacion para la relacion entre el dictamen y el comportamiento de los precios en los paises participantes del MILA.
调查的目的是评估预期回报的关系的上市公司的股票价格在拉美综合市场(MILA)而在审计员的意见divulgacion 2011-2017继metodologia事件研究(i) CAR;(ii) Fama & French;(iii) BHAR,以及ARCH检验、传统相关性和高斯copula。据事情发表意见是重要的,然而,没有一个意义estadisticamente代表性时做一个多变量regresion和correlacion模式之间的关系和行为的意见价格的国家成员MILA。
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引用次数: 1
The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns in Brazil 巴西股票预期收益的横截面分析
Pub Date : 2016-04-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2800229
G. Varga, Ricardo Brito
In a sample of the Brazilian stock market from 1999 to 2015, this paper shows that the book-to-market and momentum of individual firms capture some of the cross-sectional variation in average stock returns, while the market s and size do not play a role. The positive relation of cross-section of returns with book-to-market is more evident earlier, while the positive relation with momentum is stronger later in the sample. However, because none of these characteristics show explanatory power for all the subsamples studied, we are not fully convinced that they capture fundamental risk factors.
在1999年至2015年的巴西股票市场样本中,本文表明单个公司的账面市值比和动量捕获了平均股票收益的一些横截面变化,而市场规模和规模不发挥作用。在样本中,收益率横截面与账面市值比的正相关关系越早越明显,而与动量的正相关关系越晚越强。然而,由于这些特征中没有一个显示出对所研究的所有子样本的解释力,我们不能完全相信它们捕获了基本的风险因素。
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引用次数: 8
Corwin-Schultz Bid-Ask Spread Estimator in the Brazilian Stock Market Corwin-Schultz买卖价差估计器在巴西股市
Pub Date : 2016-03-01 DOI: 10.1590/1807-7692BAR2016150036
A. Ripamonti
This paper tests the validity of the Corwin-Schultz bid-ask spread estimator in the Brazilian stock market. The Corwin-Schultz estimator arises as an easy way to compute asymmetric information throughout daily high and low stock prices for estimating overnight and non-negative adjusted spreads. The sample consisted of Ibovespa firms from 1986 to 2014 and was analysed with time series econometrics. The findings show that the measures of spread have stationarity properties, allowing for forecasting in a period of lagged variables, besides having the property of time-varying cointegration with market-to-book ratio, debt on equity, size and return and also presenting sensibility to different periods, industries and listing segments. Thus, the Corwin-Schultz bid-ask spread estimator seems to be a valid and reliable measure for forecasting aggregate-data variables through the weighted average of firm-level variables.
本文在巴西股票市场上检验了Corwin-Schultz买卖价差估计量的有效性。Corwin-Schultz估计器是一种简单的计算非对称信息的方法,可以通过每天的高低股价来估计隔夜和非负调整价差。样本由1986年至2014年的Ibovespa公司组成,并使用时间序列计量经济学进行分析。研究结果表明,价差的度量具有平稳性,除了与市净率、股本负债率、规模和回报具有时变协整的特性外,还具有对不同时期、行业和上市细分市场的敏感性,从而允许在滞后变量的一段时间内进行预测。因此,corwen - schultz买卖价差估计器似乎是通过公司层面变量的加权平均来预测汇总数据变量的有效和可靠的度量。
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引用次数: 6
Volatility Transmission between US and Latin American Stock Markets: Testing the Decoupling Hypothesis 美国和拉丁美洲股市波动传导:检验脱钩假说
Pub Date : 2015-12-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2733342
Laura Cardona, Marcela Gutiérrez, Diego A. Agudelo
We test for volatility transmission between US and the six largest Latin American stock markets (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru) using MGARCH-BEKK models in daily frequency from March 1993 to March 2013. As expected, we find strong evidence of volatility transmission from US to the Latin American markets but not so in the opposite direction. Besides, we reject the hypothesis of decoupling between US, Brazil and Mexico: the conditional correlations between US and the two emerging markets have steadily increased over the sample period and volatility transmissions have become more significant from 2003 onwards. We also find some evidence on the leadership of Brazil in the region, being the only Latin American stock market consistently transmitting volatility to US. We discuss implications for the financial integration literature.
我们使用MGARCH-BEKK模型对1993年3月至2013年3月期间美国与拉美六大股票市场(阿根廷、巴西、智利、哥伦比亚、墨西哥和秘鲁)之间的波动率传导进行了测试。正如预期的那样,我们发现了从美国到拉丁美洲市场波动传导的有力证据,而不是相反的方向。此外,我们拒绝美国、巴西和墨西哥之间的脱钩假设:美国与两个新兴市场之间的条件相关性在样本期内稳步增加,波动传导自2003年以来变得更加显著。我们还发现了巴西在该地区的领导地位的一些证据,巴西是唯一一个持续向美国传递波动的拉丁美洲股市。我们讨论了对财务整合文献的影响。
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引用次数: 53
Revisão Bibliográfica - Construção De Portfólios (Survey - Portfolio Construction in Brazil) 文献综述-投资组合建设(调查-巴西投资组合建设)
Pub Date : 2015-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2874757
S. Lee
Portuguese Abstract: Este presente trabalho consiste em uma revisão bibliográfica da construção de portfólios, com enfoque nos estudos empíricos realizados com base na realidade brasileira, proporcionando ao investidor profissional ou não e também aos pesquisadores acadêmicos fácil acesso aos estudos mais recentes sobre o tema. English Abstract: This paper surveys portfolio construction, focusing on empirical research conducted in Brazil.
摘要:本研究包括对投资组合构建的文献综述,重点是基于巴西现实的实证研究,为专业或非专业投资者以及学术研究人员提供了关于该主题的最新研究。英语摘要:本文调查了在巴西进行的实证研究的组合构建。
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引用次数: 0
Performance of Mutual Equity Funds in Brazil – A Bootstrap Analysis 巴西共同股票基金的业绩——一个Bootstrap分析
Pub Date : 2013-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2322767
M. Laes, M. Silva
This article reports a study on the performance of mutual equity funds in Brazil from January 2002 to August 2012. For the analyses, Carhart's four-factor model is used as the benchmark for performance, and bootstrap procedures are applied to separate skill from luck. The results show that returns of the best performers are more due to luck than skill of their managers. For the bottom ranked funds, on the contrary, there is statistical evidence that their poor performance is caused mainly by bad management, rather than by bad luck. It is also showed that the largest funds perform better than the small or middle-sized funds.
本文对2002年1月至2012年8月巴西共同股票基金的业绩进行了研究。在分析中,使用Carhart的四因素模型作为绩效基准,并应用bootstrap程序将技能与运气分开。结果表明,最佳表现者的回报更多地取决于运气,而不是他们的经理的技能。相反,对于排名垫底的基金,有统计证据表明,它们糟糕的业绩主要是由于管理不善,而不是运气不好。另外,大型基金的业绩也比中小型基金好。
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引用次数: 22
A Circulation Network Model for the Exchange Rate Arbitrage Problem 汇率套利问题的流通网络模型
Pub Date : 2012-12-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2192185
C. Cantú, Edgar Possani
In this article we present a circulation network model for the detection of arbitrage opportunities in the currencies and securities markets. As an illustration we present its application to the interest rate of the Mexican and American bond market, the interbank loan rate of both countries, as well as to the deposits rate of US and Canada reported in Bloomberg. Deviations of covered interest rate parity imply that there exist a series of transactions that can be carried out to obtain riskless profits by exploiting arbitrage opportunities. The problem of finding arbitrage opportunities is modeled via a generalized maximum flow problem. The maximum flow over the generalized circulation network represents profits from arbitrage, and it’s obtained through the application of a minimum cost flow algorithm.
在本文中,我们提出了一个流通网络模型,用于检测货币和证券市场中的套利机会。作为一个例子,我们将其应用于墨西哥和美国债券市场的利率,两国的银行间贷款利率,以及彭博社报道的美国和加拿大的存款利率。利差平价的偏离意味着存在一系列的交易,这些交易可以通过利用套利机会获得无风险的利润。寻找套利机会的问题通过一个广义最大流量问题来建模。广义流通网络上的最大流量代表套利利润,它是通过应用最小成本流算法得到的。
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引用次数: 1
Rendimiento Ex-Dividendo Como Indicador De Eficiencia En Un Mercado Emergente: Caso Colombiano 1999-2007 (Ex-dividend Return as Indicator of Efficiency in a Emerging Stock Market: The Case of the Colombian Stock Market 1999-2007) 除息回报率作为新兴股票市场效率指标:哥伦比亚股市1999-2007年案例分析
Pub Date : 2012-10-25 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2400735
E. Arroyave, Diego A. Agudelo
Se evalua el rendimiento ex-dividendo en acciones colombianas entre 1999 y 2007, periodo que incluye la conformacion en julio de 2001 de la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia, resultado de la integracion de tres bolsas previamente existentes. Contrario a la hipotesis de eficiencia de mercado, se encontraron rendimientos exdividendo positivos y estadisticamente significativos, similares a los evidenciados en diversos mercados internacionales. Se comprueba que los rendimientos ex-dividendo no son explicados en su totalidad por costos de transaccion ni por efectos impositivos. Una estrategia limitada de captura de dividendos, substrayendo dichos costos, habria entregado rendimientos positivos y economicamente importantes entre 2006 y 2007 en las acciones mas liquidas del mercado. Sin embargo, estos rendimientos tienden a disminuir en el periodo de estudio, consistentes con un avance hacia una mayor eficiencia en el mercado accionario colombiano despues de la integracion. Este estudio pone de relieve la importancia de considerar las fricciones en estudios academicos de eficiencia y de evaluacion de estrategias especulativas. (We study the ex-dividend return in the Colombian stock market between 1999 and 2007, period that includes the merger of the former three Colombian stock exchanges in the Bolsa de Valores de Colombia in July 2001. Contrary to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, we found positive and statistically significant ex-dividend returns in the sampled period, only in part explained by transaction cost and tax effects. Moreover, even subtracting transaction costs and tax effects, a dividend capture strategy would have gotten positive and economically sizable returns between 2006 and 2007 in the most liquid stocks. The decrease of those ex-dividend returns is also reported along the studied period, providing evidence of increasing informational efficiency after the merger of the three stock exchanges. Methodologically, this study highlights the importance of accounting for frictions in both academic efficiency studies and in testing speculative strategies by practitioners.)
本研究的目的是评估哥伦比亚股票在1999年至2007年期间的股息收益率,包括2001年7月哥伦比亚证券交易所的成立,这是合并三个以前存在的交易所的结果。在本研究中,我们分析了市场效率的假设,即在不同的国际市场中,股息收益率是正的和统计上显著的。在这种情况下,股息前的收益可以用交易成本或税收影响来解释。在2006年至2007年期间,市场上最具流动性的股票将获得正的、经济上重要的回报。然而,在研究期间,这些回报往往会下降,这与整合后哥伦比亚股票市场的更高效率一致。然而,在实践中,这两种方法都有很大的不同。(我们研究了1999年至2007年间哥伦比亚股票市场的前股息回报,这段时间包括2001年7月前三家哥伦比亚股票交易所在哥伦比亚证券交易所的合并。与有效市场假设相反,我们发现在抽样期间的前股息回报是正的和统计上显著的,仅部分由交易成本和税收效应解释。此外,即使减去交易成本和税收影响,在2006年至2007年期间,大多数流动性股票的股息获取策略也将获得正的、经济上可衡量的回报。在本报告所述期间,还报告了这些前股息回报的下降情况,这为三家股票交易所合并后信息效率的提高提供了证据。从方法上讲,本研究强调了在学术效率研究和实践者的推测性测试策略中对摩擦进行核算的重要性。)
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引用次数: 1
A Comparison of Cost of Equity Estimates of Local and Global CAPM: Experience from a Developing Country, Mexico 地方资本资产定价与全球资本资产定价的股权成本估算比较:来自发展中国家墨西哥的经验
Pub Date : 2012-10-24 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2166297
C. Villarreal
Given that Mexican companies holding foreign currency debt are extremely exposed to the volatility in currency exchange rates, we ask if the required returns determined by the Local CAPM model and those determined by the Global CAPM model are significantly different. In our study, which was conducted between 2006 and 2010, we found the two models projected significantly different estimated capital costs. We tracked 19 companies that trade on the Mexican Stock Market and found that the average of the Local CAPM is 13.83% while that of the Global CAPM is 20.38%. Our discovery that the estimated cost of capital for the Mexican firms in the global capital market is significantly higher than in the local — reaching 1000basis points in some cases — suggests the need for further studies to investigate the statistical and economic significance of this difference.
鉴于持有外币债务的墨西哥公司极易受到货币汇率波动的影响,我们想知道由本地CAPM模型确定的所需回报与由全球CAPM模型确定的所需回报是否存在显著差异。在我们2006年至2010年间进行的研究中,我们发现这两个模型预测的估计资本成本存在显著差异。我们跟踪了19家在墨西哥股票市场交易的公司,发现本地CAPM的平均值为13.83%,而全球CAPM的平均值为20.38%。我们发现墨西哥公司在全球资本市场上的估计资本成本明显高于当地-在某些情况下达到1000个基点-这表明需要进一步研究来调查这种差异的统计和经济意义。
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引用次数: 0
Does the Liquidity Effect Exist in the Brazilian Stock Market? 巴西股市是否存在流动性效应?
Pub Date : 2012-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2217941
M. Machado, Otavio Ribeiro de Medeiros
The purpose of this article is to analyze whether the liquidity effect exists in the Brazilian stock market. In addition to analyzing the liquidity effect, this article evaluated the capacity of CAPM and the Fama-French three-factor model (1993) in explaining it. For such purpose, the companies with shares traded in Bovespa were analyzed, in the period from 1995 to 2008. According to the results obtained, it can be concluded that there is a liquidity premium in the Brazilian market, regardless of the proxy used. The monthly premium varied from 0.83% to 2.19%, not adjusted for risk, and from 1.77% to 2.78%, adjusted for risk pursuant to CAPM, and from 1.24% to 3.04%, adjusted for risk according to the three-factor model, respectively. It was also observed that the liquidity premium was not restricted to the month of January, and that there were no substantial modifications when different periods were used in the analysis. In view of such evidence, the hypothesis of this article, that there is a liquidity premium in the Brazilian market, cannot be rejected. Moreover, it was observed that both CAPM and the three-factor model fail to explain the liquidity effect. The results obtained in this study can instigate the establishment of corporate policies which alleviate the liquidity costs, i.e., which improve the liquidity of the securities negotiated, reducing, as a result, the capital cost. By doing so, a company can increase its market value, improving the liquidity of its securities and shares, since the lower the capital cost, the greater the value of the company.
本文的目的是分析巴西股票市场是否存在流动性效应。除了分析流动性效应外,本文还对CAPM和Fama-French三因素模型(1993)解释CAPM的能力进行了评价。为此,我们对1995年至2008年在Bovespa上市的公司进行了分析。根据所得的结果,可以得出结论,无论使用何种代理,巴西市场都存在流动性溢价。月保费变动范围为未经风险调整的0.83% ~ 2.19%,根据CAPM进行风险调整的1.77% ~ 2.78%,根据三因素模型进行风险调整的1.24% ~ 3.04%。人们还注意到,流动性溢价并不局限于1月份,而且在分析中使用不同时期时也没有实质性的修改。鉴于这些证据,本文的假设,即巴西市场存在流动性溢价,不能被拒绝。此外,我们观察到CAPM和三因素模型都不能解释流动性效应。本研究的结果可以促使公司制定缓解流动性成本的政策,即提高议价证券的流动性,从而降低资金成本。通过这样做,公司可以增加其市场价值,提高其证券和股票的流动性,因为资本成本越低,公司的价值越大。
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引用次数: 9
期刊
ERN: Latin America & the Caribbean (Emerging Markets) (Topic)
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