Pub Date : 2017-06-29DOI: 10.3844/JMSSP.2017.186.196
J. Billings, S. Barco
The Labouchere gambling system is hypothesized to increase the probability of winning a predetermined arbitrary profit in a gambling system such as a coin flip or a roulette game in which both payouts and odds are 1:1. However, use of the system increases the downside monetary risk in the event of a streak of multiple losses. To begin, a player creates an arbitrary series of consecutive integers with a sum equal to the desired profit from multiple rounds of betting. Using the system, a player will either win an amount equal to the sum of the elements of the initial series or lose all of their available capital. This sequence was simulated multiple times to determine the statistical characteristics of both the return and of the loss in an average round of betting. By running the simulations of millions of rounds of Labouchere, it was possible to discern the probable outcomes of running the system using the Labouchere gambling sequence and plotting the results on a graph to map the average return on the initial capital investment. The Labouchere system is very psychologically appealing to players because when applied over time it provides very consistent linear returns. However, there is eventually a critical moment at which the available capital for betting is exceeded and a player loses all of their available capital. It was found that as the number of bets increased, the outcome of applying the sequence approached zero.
{"title":"An Investigation into Laboucheres Betting System to Improve Odds of Favorable Outcomes to Generate a Positive Externality Empirically","authors":"J. Billings, S. Barco","doi":"10.3844/JMSSP.2017.186.196","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3844/JMSSP.2017.186.196","url":null,"abstract":"The Labouchere gambling system is hypothesized to increase the probability of winning a predetermined arbitrary profit in a gambling system such as a coin flip or a roulette game in which both payouts and odds are 1:1. However, use of the system increases the downside monetary risk in the event of a streak of multiple losses. To begin, a player creates an arbitrary series of consecutive integers with a sum equal to the desired profit from multiple rounds of betting. Using the system, a player will either win an amount equal to the sum of the elements of the initial series or lose all of their available capital. This sequence was simulated multiple times to determine the statistical characteristics of both the return and of the loss in an average round of betting. By running the simulations of millions of rounds of Labouchere, it was possible to discern the probable outcomes of running the system using the Labouchere gambling sequence and plotting the results on a graph to map the average return on the initial capital investment. The Labouchere system is very psychologically appealing to players because when applied over time it provides very consistent linear returns. However, there is eventually a critical moment at which the available capital for betting is exceeded and a player loses all of their available capital. It was found that as the number of bets increased, the outcome of applying the sequence approached zero.","PeriodicalId":250928,"journal":{"name":"arXiv: General Finance","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115520798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mathematical method based on a direct or indirect analysis of growth rates is described. It is shown how simple assumptions and a relatively easy analysis can be used to describe mathematically complicated trends and to predict growth. Only rudimentary knowledge of calculus is required. Projected trajectories based on such simple initial assumptions are easier to accept and to understand than alternative complicated projections based on more complicated assumptions and on more intricate computational procedures. Examples of the growth of population and of the growth of the Gross Domestic Product are used to illustrate the application of this method of forecasting.
{"title":"Application of Differential Equations in Projecting Growth Trajectories","authors":"Ron W. Nielsen","doi":"10.1453/JEB.V4I3.1363","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1453/JEB.V4I3.1363","url":null,"abstract":"Mathematical method based on a direct or indirect analysis of growth rates is described. It is shown how simple assumptions and a relatively easy analysis can be used to describe mathematically complicated trends and to predict growth. Only rudimentary knowledge of calculus is required. Projected trajectories based on such simple initial assumptions are easier to accept and to understand than alternative complicated projections based on more complicated assumptions and on more intricate computational procedures. Examples of the growth of population and of the growth of the Gross Domestic Product are used to illustrate the application of this method of forecasting.","PeriodicalId":250928,"journal":{"name":"arXiv: General Finance","volume":"333 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116113028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-12-27DOI: 10.6084/M9.FIGSHARE.4497317.V1
Hristian Yuriev Daskalov
This paper intends to present the opportunities emerging for the national economy, out of the financial crisis. In particular the management of those, which arise from the commercial real estate owned property sector, defined by the author as crisis heritage management. On one hand, as real estate property prices are subject of wide fluctuations, the longer possession of such assets can seriously impact the financial condition of the already shattered financial institutions, but on the on other - with the help of professional and proactive management, and the right kind of attitude by all the stakeholders, the heritage left out of the financial collapse, can not only help stabilize the system - bringing liquidity into it, but can also support its healthy corporate governance in the long-term. The properties themselves (business buildings, warehouses, retail-and-office spaces), being an object of optimization of maintenance costs, re-engineering, intensive marketing, as a result of the crisis, can serve as a solid base for number of new and profitable business and investment opportunities, described in the article, as a proof of the healing effect of the financial crisis and the second chance it gives.
{"title":"Crisis' Heritage Management - New Business Opportunities Out of the Financial Collapse","authors":"Hristian Yuriev Daskalov","doi":"10.6084/M9.FIGSHARE.4497317.V1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6084/M9.FIGSHARE.4497317.V1","url":null,"abstract":"This paper intends to present the opportunities emerging for the national economy, out of the financial crisis. In particular the management of those, which arise from the commercial real estate owned property sector, defined by the author as crisis heritage management. On one hand, as real estate property prices are subject of wide fluctuations, the longer possession of such assets can seriously impact the financial condition of the already shattered financial institutions, but on the on other - with the help of professional and proactive management, and the right kind of attitude by all the stakeholders, the heritage left out of the financial collapse, can not only help stabilize the system - bringing liquidity into it, but can also support its healthy corporate governance in the long-term. The properties themselves (business buildings, warehouses, retail-and-office spaces), being an object of optimization of maintenance costs, re-engineering, intensive marketing, as a result of the crisis, can serve as a solid base for number of new and profitable business and investment opportunities, described in the article, as a proof of the healing effect of the financial crisis and the second chance it gives.","PeriodicalId":250928,"journal":{"name":"arXiv: General Finance","volume":"113 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124644336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-11-02DOI: 10.1007/978-981-10-5705-2_3
Arnab Chatterjee, A. Ghosh, B. Chakrabarti
{"title":"Socio-economic inequality and prospects of institutional Econophysics","authors":"Arnab Chatterjee, A. Ghosh, B. Chakrabarti","doi":"10.1007/978-981-10-5705-2_3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-5705-2_3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":250928,"journal":{"name":"arXiv: General Finance","volume":"119 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133887940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-09-30DOI: 10.5121/ijmvsc.2016.7301
Wesley S. Boyce, H. Mano, J. Kent
Supply Chain Management often requires independent organizations to work together to achieve shared objectives. This collaboration is necessary when coordinated actions benefit the group more than the uncoordinated efforts of individual firms. Despite the commonly reported benefits that can be gained in close relationships, recent research has indicated that collaboration attempts between purchasing firms and their suppliers have not been as widespread as anticipated. Using a survey of procurement professionals, this research investigates how the purchasing function utilizes collaboration in its supply chain relationships. Structural equation modeling is used to identify how information sharing, decision synchronization, incentive alignment, collaborative communication, and trust impact collaboration, as well as how collaboration impacts performance. Results from 86 survey responses indicate that firms are still not fully utilizing collaborative relationships.
{"title":"The Influence of Collaboration in Procurement Relationships","authors":"Wesley S. Boyce, H. Mano, J. Kent","doi":"10.5121/ijmvsc.2016.7301","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5121/ijmvsc.2016.7301","url":null,"abstract":"Supply Chain Management often requires independent organizations to work together to achieve shared objectives. This collaboration is necessary when coordinated actions benefit the group more than the uncoordinated efforts of individual firms. Despite the commonly reported benefits that can be gained in close relationships, recent research has indicated that collaboration attempts between purchasing firms and their suppliers have not been as widespread as anticipated. Using a survey of procurement professionals, this research investigates how the purchasing function utilizes collaboration in its supply chain relationships. Structural equation modeling is used to identify how information sharing, decision synchronization, incentive alignment, collaborative communication, and trust impact collaboration, as well as how collaboration impacts performance. Results from 86 survey responses indicate that firms are still not fully utilizing collaborative relationships.","PeriodicalId":250928,"journal":{"name":"arXiv: General Finance","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134537486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-07-19DOI: 10.1007/978-981-10-5705-2_11
K. Sharma, Shreyanshi Shah, A. Chakrabarti, A. Chakraborti
{"title":"Sectoral Co-movements in the Indian Stock Market: A Mesoscopic Network Analysis","authors":"K. Sharma, Shreyanshi Shah, A. Chakrabarti, A. Chakraborti","doi":"10.1007/978-981-10-5705-2_11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-5705-2_11","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":250928,"journal":{"name":"arXiv: General Finance","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124786376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-05-30DOI: 10.1142/S0129183116501321
M. Andrecut
The statistical mechanics approach to wealth distribution is based on the conservative kinetic multi-agent model for money exchange, where the local interaction rule between the agents is analogous to the elastic particle scattering process. Here, we discuss the role of a class of conservative local operators, and we show that, depending on the values of their parameters, they can be used to generate all the relevant distributions. We also show numerically that in order to generate the power-law tail an heterogeneous risk aversion model is required. By changing the parameters of these operators one can also fine tune the resulting distributions in order to provide support for the emergence of a more egalitarian wealth distribution.
{"title":"Local Operators in Kinetic Wealth Distribution","authors":"M. Andrecut","doi":"10.1142/S0129183116501321","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S0129183116501321","url":null,"abstract":"The statistical mechanics approach to wealth distribution is based on the conservative kinetic multi-agent model for money exchange, where the local interaction rule between the agents is analogous to the elastic particle scattering process. Here, we discuss the role of a class of conservative local operators, and we show that, depending on the values of their parameters, they can be used to generate all the relevant distributions. We also show numerically that in order to generate the power-law tail an heterogeneous risk aversion model is required. By changing the parameters of these operators one can also fine tune the resulting distributions in order to provide support for the emergence of a more egalitarian wealth distribution.","PeriodicalId":250928,"journal":{"name":"arXiv: General Finance","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116337932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Dolfin, D. Knopoff, L. Leonida, Dario Maimone Ansaldo Patti
In this paper we present a kinetic model with stochastic game-type interactions, analyzing the relationship between the level of political competition in a society and the degree of economic liberalization. The above issue regards the complex interactions between economy and institutional policies intended to introduce technological innovations in a society, where technological innovations are intended in a broad sense comprehending reforms critical to production. A special focus is placed on the political replacement effect described in a macroscopic model by Acemoglu and Robinson (AR-model, henceforth), which can determine the phenomenon of innovation 'blocking', possibly leading to economic backwardness. One of the goals of our modelization is to obtain a mesoscopic dynamical model whose macroscopic outputs are qualitatively comparable with stylized facts of the AR-model. A set of numerical solutions is presented showing the non monotonous relationship between economic liberization and political competition, which can be considered as an emergent phenomenon of the complex socio-economic interaction dynamic.
{"title":"Escaping the trap of 'blocking': a kinetic model linking economic development and political competition","authors":"M. Dolfin, D. Knopoff, L. Leonida, Dario Maimone Ansaldo Patti","doi":"10.3934/KRM.2017016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3934/KRM.2017016","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we present a kinetic model with stochastic game-type interactions, analyzing the relationship between the level of political competition in a society and the degree of economic liberalization. The above issue regards the complex interactions between economy and institutional policies intended to introduce technological innovations in a society, where technological innovations are intended in a broad sense comprehending reforms critical to production. A special focus is placed on the political replacement effect described in a macroscopic model by Acemoglu and Robinson (AR-model, henceforth), which can determine the phenomenon of innovation 'blocking', possibly leading to economic backwardness. One of the goals of our modelization is to obtain a mesoscopic dynamical model whose macroscopic outputs are qualitatively comparable with stylized facts of the AR-model. A set of numerical solutions is presented showing the non monotonous relationship between economic liberization and political competition, which can be considered as an emergent phenomenon of the complex socio-economic interaction dynamic.","PeriodicalId":250928,"journal":{"name":"arXiv: General Finance","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120958698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-12-08DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2017.10003511
A. Almog, Tiziano Squartini, D. Garlaschelli
The International Trade Network (ITN) is the network formed by trade relationships between world countries. The complex structure of the ITN impacts important economic processes such as globalization, competitiveness, and the propagation of instabilities. Modeling the structure of the ITN in terms of simple macroeconomic quantities is therefore of paramount importance. While traditional macroeconomics has mainly used the Gravity Model to characterize the magnitude of trade volumes, modern network theory has predominantly focused on modeling the topology of the ITN. Combining these two complementary approaches is still an open problem. Here we review these approaches and emphasize the double role played by GDP in empirically determining both the existence and the volume of trade linkages. Moreover, we discuss a unified model that exploits these patterns and uses only the GDP as the relevant macroeconomic factor for reproducing both the topology and the link weights of the ITN.
{"title":"The double role of GDP in shaping the structure of the International Trade Network","authors":"A. Almog, Tiziano Squartini, D. Garlaschelli","doi":"10.1504/IJCEE.2017.10003511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJCEE.2017.10003511","url":null,"abstract":"The International Trade Network (ITN) is the network formed by trade relationships between world countries. The complex structure of the ITN impacts important economic processes such as globalization, competitiveness, and the propagation of instabilities. Modeling the structure of the ITN in terms of simple macroeconomic quantities is therefore of paramount importance. While traditional macroeconomics has mainly used the Gravity Model to characterize the magnitude of trade volumes, modern network theory has predominantly focused on modeling the topology of the ITN. Combining these two complementary approaches is still an open problem. Here we review these approaches and emphasize the double role played by GDP in empirically determining both the existence and the volume of trade linkages. Moreover, we discuss a unified model that exploits these patterns and uses only the GDP as the relevant macroeconomic factor for reproducing both the topology and the link weights of the ITN.","PeriodicalId":250928,"journal":{"name":"arXiv: General Finance","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124206272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we analyze dynamic programming as a novel approach to solve the problem of maximizing the profits of a bank. The mathematical model of the problem and the description of a bank's work is described in this paper. The problem is then approached using the method of dynamic programming. Dynamic programming makes sure that the solutions obtained are globally optimal and numerically stable. The optimization process is set up as a discrete multi-stage decision process and solved with the help of dynamic programming.
{"title":"A Dynamic Model of Functioning of a Bank","authors":"O. Malafeyev, Achal Awasthi","doi":"10.1063/1.5032004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5032004","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we analyze dynamic programming as a novel approach to solve the problem of maximizing the profits of a bank. The mathematical model of the problem and the description of a bank's work is described in this paper. The problem is then approached using the method of dynamic programming. Dynamic programming makes sure that the solutions obtained are globally optimal and numerically stable. The optimization process is set up as a discrete multi-stage decision process and solved with the help of dynamic programming.","PeriodicalId":250928,"journal":{"name":"arXiv: General Finance","volume":"52 5","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131471019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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