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Storm CAT Bond: Modeling and Valuation Storm CAT Bond:建模和评估
Pub Date : 2021-08-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3912344
Shimeng Huang, Jinggong Zhang, Wenjun Zhu
Both the frequency and intensity of weather-related catastrophes, such as storms and floods, have been increasing due to climate change such as global warming. This leads to rising storm catastrophe risks faced by the property & casualty insurance and reinsurance sector. This research proposes an index-based storm catastrophe (CAT) bond for reinsurers to hedge catastrophe risks related to storm losses. Storm losses data have a large portion of zero values and a continuous positive right-skewed distri- bution, together with high-dimensional spatial dependence. We address these unique properties by proposing a Gamma-two-part-autoregressive (Gamma-2PAR) distribu- tion as the marginal model, and the spatio-temporal vine copula as the dependence model. We investigate the CAT bond market equilibrium and endogenously solve for the optimal market price of risk and coupon rates. Our empirical results using historical losses data at the county-level in Florida show the proposed CAT bond can stabilize the reinsurer’s cash flows and create attractive returns to investors by offering high coupon rates. Our framework can be generalized to design and price other catastrophe financing facilities.
由于全球变暖等气候变化,与天气有关的灾难(如风暴和洪水)的频率和强度都在增加。这导致财产险和再保险行业面临的风暴巨灾风险不断上升。本研究提出一种基于指数的风暴巨灾债券,供再保险公司对冲风暴损失相关的巨灾风险。暴雨损失数据的零值占比较大,呈连续正右偏态分布,具有高维空间依赖性。为了解决这些独特的性质,我们提出了一个伽玛二部分自回归(伽玛二部分自回归)分布作为边缘模型,并将时空藤联结作为依赖模型。本文研究了CAT债券市场均衡,并对风险和票面利率的最优市场价格进行了内生求解。我们使用佛罗里达州县级历史损失数据的实证结果表明,拟议的CAT债券可以稳定再保险公司的现金流,并通过提供高票面利率为投资者创造有吸引力的回报。我们的框架可以推广到其他巨灾融资工具的设计和定价。
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引用次数: 0
Empirical Tail Risk Management with Model-Based Annealing Random Search 基于模型退火随机搜索的实证尾部风险管理
Pub Date : 2021-08-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3909221
Qi Fan, K. S. Tan, Jinggong Zhang
Tail risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) are popularly accepted criteria for financial risk management, but are usually difficult to optimize. Especially for VaR, it generally leads to a non-convex NP-hard problem which is computationally challenging. In this paper we propose the use of model-based annealing random search (MARS) method in tail risk optimization problems. The MARS, which is a gradient-free and flexible method, can widely be applied to solving many financial and insurance problems under mild mathematical conditions. We use a weather index insurance design problem with tail risk measures including VaR, CVaR and Entropic Value at Risk (EVaR) as the objective function to demonstrate the viability and effectiveness of MARS. We conduct an empirical analysis in which we use a set of weather variables to hedge against corn production losses in Illinois. Numerical results show that the proposed optimization scheme effectively helps corn producers to manage their tail risk.
尾部风险度量,如风险价值(VaR)和条件风险价值(CVaR)是金融风险管理中普遍接受的标准,但通常难以优化。特别是对于VaR,它通常会导致非凸np困难问题,这在计算上具有挑战性。本文提出了基于模型的退火随机搜索(MARS)方法在尾部风险优化问题中的应用。MARS是一种无梯度且灵活的方法,可广泛应用于在温和的数学条件下解决许多金融和保险问题。我们用一个包含VaR、CVaR和风险熵值(EVaR)等尾部风险度量的天气指数保险设计问题作为目标函数来证明MARS的可行性和有效性。我们进行了一项实证分析,其中我们使用一组天气变量来对冲伊利诺伊州的玉米生产损失。数值结果表明,所提出的优化方案有效地帮助玉米生产者管理尾部风险。
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引用次数: 0
Does Firms’ Equity Financing Benefit Debtholders? Evidence from Private Placements of Equity 企业股权融资是否有利于债权人?来自私募股权的证据
Pub Date : 2021-05-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3846717
Jun-Koo Kang, Jee Youn Koh, James L. Park
We examine how private placements of equity (PPEs) affect debtholder wealth. We find that banks charge higher loan spreads, require more collateral, and impose stricter covenants for firms conducting PPEs. The results are more pronounced for firms without a value-enhancing PPE feature, particularly those with poorer governance and higher information asymmetry. These firms also invest less efficiently and underperform in the post-placement period and realize more negative bond and stock returns around PPE (post-placement M&A) announcement dates. Thus, issuers’ managerial entrenchment problems are the main source of debtholders’ loss in PPEs, and lenders use such information in adjusting lending terms.
我们研究私募股权(ppe)如何影响债权人的财富。我们发现,银行收取更高的贷款利差,要求更多的抵押品,并对开展私人股本的公司施加更严格的契约。对于没有价值提升的个人防护能力特征的公司,特别是那些治理较差和信息不对称程度较高的公司,结果更为明显。这些公司在配售后的投资效率也较低,表现不佳,在PPE(配售后的M&A)公告日期前后实现更多的负债券和股票回报。因此,发行人的管理壕沟问题是股东在私人股本方面损失的主要来源,而贷款机构则利用这些信息来调整贷款条款。
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引用次数: 0
Analyst Industry Knowledge and School Tie Spillover 分析师行业知识和学校关系溢出
Pub Date : 2021-02-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3545732
Sheng‐Syan Chen, C. Hwang, Chen-Chieh Liao, Chin-Te Yu
Relative to analysts without school ties, analysts with ties make more accurate forecasts and more profitable recommendations on non-tied firms in the same industry, suggesting that analysts acquire industry information through school ties. We conduct various tests to assess the relative importance of firm-specific vs. industry information reflected in connected analysts’ forecasts and recommendations. After Regulation Fair Disclosure, firm managers shift from privately disclosing firm-specific information to industry information, which is responsible for connected analysts’ continued (albeit smaller) information advantage. These results suggest selective disclosure of industry information is a legal gray area that deserves further regulatory attention.
与没有学校关系的分析师相比,有学校关系的分析师对同一行业中没有学校关系的公司做出了更准确的预测和更有利可图的建议,这表明分析师通过学校关系获取行业信息。我们进行了各种测试,以评估相关分析师的预测和建议中反映的公司特定信息与行业信息的相对重要性。在监管公平披露之后,公司管理者从私下披露公司特定信息转向披露行业信息,这是关联分析师持续(尽管较小)信息优势的原因。这些结果表明,选择性披露行业信息是一个法律灰色地带,值得进一步监管。
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引用次数: 1
Executive Mobility in the United States, 1920 to 2011 1920年至2011年美国的高管流动性
Pub Date : 2020-12-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3753809
J. Graham, Dawoon Kim, Hyunseob Kim
We examine the evolution of executive mobility from 1920-2011. In the decades leading up to 1999, CEO and CFO mobility increased. Starting in the early-2000s, in contrast, executive mobility declined sharply. We develop a new measure of aggregate executive mobility that nests both turnover and across-firm mobility. We use this measure to document that the benefits of reallocating executives, labor market size, compensation, and general managerial skills help explain executive mobility trends. We also show that following an increase in mobility, firms shift CEO pay towards option grants, consistent with a retention effect of option pay for executives.
我们考察了1920-2011年间高管流动性的演变。在1999年之前的几十年里,首席执行官和首席财务官的流动性有所增加。相比之下,从21世纪初开始,高管流动性急剧下降。我们开发了一种新的衡量总高管流动性的方法,它既包含了人员流动率,也包含了跨公司的流动性。我们使用这一措施来证明,重新分配高管、劳动力市场规模、薪酬和一般管理技能的好处有助于解释高管流动趋势。我们还表明,随着流动性的增加,公司将CEO薪酬转向期权授予,这与高管期权薪酬的保留效应相一致。
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引用次数: 5
Internal Control Weaknesses and Corporate Environmental Performance: Evidence from Toxic Chemical Pollutants 内部控制弱点与企业环境绩效:来自有毒化学污染物的证据
Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3741197
X. Chang, Kangkang Fu, Yiwei Li, Xiu‐Ye Zhang
We investigate the environmental implications of firms’ internal control over financial reporting. Our main result is that corporate environmental performance, measured using the amount of firms’ toxic production-related waste, is significantly poorer among firms with material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting than firms without such weaknesses. Furthermore, we document a significant improvement in corporate environmental performance following the remediation of internal control deficiencies, substantiating a causal relation between internal control over financial report and corporate environmental performance. Additional analyses show that the adverse effect of internal control weakness is exacerbated for firms with greater earnings opacity or weaker external governance mechanisms. Overall, our findings provide insights into the determinants of corporate environmental performance, highlight the environmental and social benefits of effective internal control over financial reporting, and manifest the real and environmental impacts of accounting.
我们研究了公司内部控制对财务报告的环境影响。我们的主要结果是,在财务报告内部控制方面存在重大缺陷的企业,其环境绩效(用企业有毒生产相关废物的数量来衡量)明显低于没有这些缺陷的企业。此外,我们记录了内部控制缺陷补救后企业环境绩效的显著改善,证实了财务报告内部控制与企业环境绩效之间的因果关系。其他分析表明,内部控制薄弱的不利影响在盈余不透明程度较高或外部治理机制较弱的公司中加剧。总体而言,我们的研究结果为企业环境绩效的决定因素提供了见解,突出了有效的内部控制对财务报告的环境和社会效益,并显示了会计的真实和环境影响。
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引用次数: 0
Finance and Firm Volatility: Evidence from Small Business Lending in China 金融与企业波动:来自中国小企业贷款的证据
Pub Date : 2020-10-23 DOI: 10.1287/MNSC.2020.3942
Tao Chen, Yi Huang, Chen Lin, Zixia Sheng
The online trading platform Alibaba provides financial technology (FinTech) credit for millions of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). Using a novel data set of daily sales and an internal credit score threshold that governs the allocation of credit, we apply a fuzzy regression discontinuity design (RDD) to explore the causal effect of credit access on firm volatility. We find that credit access significantly reduces firm sales volatility and that the effect is stronger for firms with fewer alternative sources of financing. We further look at firm exit probability and find that firms with access to FinTech credit are less likely to go bankrupt or exit the business in the future. Additional channel tests reveal that firms with FinTech credit invest more in advertising and product/sector diversification, particularly during business downturns, which serves as effective mechanisms through which credit access reduces firm volatility. Overall, our findings contribute to a better understanding of the role of FinTech credit in MSMEs. This paper was accepted by Haoxiang Zhu, finance.
在线交易平台阿里巴巴为数百万中小微企业(MSMEs)提供金融科技(FinTech)信贷。利用新的日销售额数据集和控制信贷分配的内部信用评分阈值,我们应用模糊回归不连续设计(RDD)来探索信贷获取对企业波动的因果影响。我们发现,信贷获取显著降低了企业的销售波动性,而且对于可选择融资来源较少的企业,这种影响更强。我们进一步研究了企业退出概率,发现获得金融科技信贷的企业在未来破产或退出业务的可能性较小。额外的渠道测试表明,拥有金融科技信贷的公司在广告和产品/行业多样化方面的投资更多,特别是在商业低迷时期,这是获得信贷减少公司波动性的有效机制。总体而言,我们的研究结果有助于更好地理解金融科技信贷在中小微企业中的作用。本文被财经朱浩翔接受。
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引用次数: 17
Bank Deregulation and Corporate Environmental Performance 银行放松管制与企业环境绩效
Pub Date : 2020-06-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3633696
Shiyi Chen, Tao Chen, Pingyi Lou, Hong Song, Chen Y. Wu
In this study, we examine the effect of bank deregulation on corporate environmental performance. We use a unique dataset that contains rich information on firms’ toxic emissions and exploit bank branching deregulation in China. We find that compared with firms with lower exposure, firms more exposed to the bank deregulation improve their environmental performance, measured by lower chemical oxygen demand (COD) emission intensity after the bank branching deregulation. We further demonstrate that treated firms’ production efficiency increases and the ratio of tangible assets to total assets decreases, which suggests that upgrading technology and asset mix are the main channels. In order to improve the efficiency of banking system, many developing countries are undergoing or moving toward liberalizing the banking industry, with the focus on firm environmental performance, this paper documents an important but unanticipated consequence resulted from bank deregulation.
在本研究中,我们考察了银行放松管制对企业环境绩效的影响。我们使用了一个独特的数据集,其中包含有关企业有毒排放的丰富信息,并利用了中国放松对银行分支机构监管的规定。研究发现,相对于受银行管制程度较低的企业,受银行管制程度较高的企业的环境绩效有所改善,其衡量指标为银行分支机构管制后化学需氧量(COD)排放强度的降低。研究进一步表明,处理后的企业生产效率提高,有形资产占总资产的比例降低,这表明技术升级和资产组合升级是主要途径。为了提高银行系统的效率,许多发展中国家正在经历或走向银行业自由化,重点是企业的环境绩效,本文记录了银行放松管制带来的一个重要但意想不到的后果。
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引用次数: 11
Logo? No Logo? The WTO Dispute on Plain Packaging of Tobacco, and Beyond 标志吗?没有标志?WTO关于烟草平装及其他问题的争端
Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3822594
Enrico Bonadio, Althaf Marsoof
In 2012, Australia became the world’s first nation to introduce plain packaging for tobacco products.This public health measure has been challenged in a number of fora, including at the WTO.

This chapter focuses on the intellectual property issues of the WTO dispute, and specifically deals with the following three aspects. First, the chapter considers the WTO Panel’s findings relating to the important issue of scientific evidence, which determines the effectiveness of plain packaging measures.

Secondly, it sets out the Panel’s legal analysis with particular focus on the compatibility of plain packaging with the Agreement on the Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) and the Paris Convention, including the role of TRIPS Article 8 and the 2001 Doha Declaration on TRIPS and Public Health, in interpreting TRIPS provisions. Reference is also made to decisions of other domestic courts (indeed, after Australia, very similar tobacco packaging measures have also been adopted by countries such as UK, France and Ireland) and investment arbitral proceedings that have concerned tobacco packaging regulation.

Thirdly, the chapter focuses on the possible spill-over effects the WTO Panel decision is likely to have on other industries, for instance alcohol and fast food – with such industries already beginning to feel the effect of packaging restrictions in a number of countries.
2012年,澳大利亚成为世界上第一个对烟草产品实行平装包装的国家。这一公共卫生措施在包括世贸组织在内的一些论坛上受到质疑。本章主要研究WTO争端中的知识产权问题,具体从以下三个方面进行论述。首先,本章考虑了WTO专家组关于科学证据这一重要问题的调查结果,科学证据决定了平装措施的有效性。第二,它阐述了专家组的法律分析,特别侧重于普通包装与《与贸易有关的知识产权协定》(《与贸易有关的知识产权协定》)和《巴黎公约》的兼容性,包括《与贸易有关的知识产权协定》第8条和2001年《与贸易有关的知识产权与公共卫生多哈宣言》在解释与贸易有关的知识产权条款方面的作用。还参考了其他国内法院的判决(事实上,在澳大利亚之后,英国、法国和爱尔兰等国家也采取了非常类似的烟草包装措施)和涉及烟草包装监管的投资仲裁程序。第三,本章的重点是世贸组织专家组的决定可能对其他行业产生的溢出效应,例如酒精和快餐,这些行业已经开始感受到一些国家包装限制的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The Capital Gains Lock-In Effect and Earnings Quality 资本利得锁定效应与盈余质量
Pub Date : 2019-12-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3500675
Stephen G. Dimmock, F. Feng, Huai Zhang
The taxation of realized capital gains creates a lock-in effect, increasing an investor’s expected holding period. We show that the unrealized capital gains of mutual funds are positively associated with the earnings quality of their portfolio firms. Consistent with tax-induced lock-in, the effect of unrealized capital gains is more pronounced for mutual funds with tax-sensitive investors than for funds with tax-insensitive investors. Moreover, the positive effect of capital gains lock-in on earnings quality is stronger during periods when the capital gain tax rate is higher and for firms with highly concentrated mutual fund ownership. In sum, our findings suggest that locked-in mutual funds improve their portfolio firms’ earnings quality through more monitoring.
对已实现资本利得的征税产生了锁定效应,增加了投资者的预期持有期。研究表明,共同基金的未实现资本利得与其投资组合公司的盈余质量呈正相关。与税收引发的锁定一致,对于拥有税收敏感投资者的共同基金而言,未实现资本利得的影响比拥有税收不敏感投资者的基金更为明显。此外,在资本利得税率较高和共同基金所有权高度集中的公司期间,资本利得锁定对盈余质量的积极影响更强。总而言之,我们的研究结果表明,锁定型共同基金通过更多的监控来改善其投资组合公司的盈利质量。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Nanyang Business School Research Paper Series
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