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tvReg: Time-varying Coefficient Linear Regression for Single and Multi-Equations in R 基于时变系数线性回归的单方程和多方程
Pub Date : 2019-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3363526
Isabel Casas, R. Fernández-Casal
The source code of the package tvReg is publicly available for download from the Comprehensive R Archive Network. The five basic functions in this package are the tvLM, tvAR, tvSURE, tvPLM, tvVAR and tvIRF, which cover a large range of semiparametric models with time-varying coefficients. Moreover, this package provides methods for the graphical display of results, extraction of the residuals and fitted values, bandwidth selection, nonparametric estimation of the time-varying variance-covariance matrix of the error term, and four estimation procedures: the time-varying ordinary least squares implemented in the tvOLS, the time-varying generalised least squares in the tvGLS, the time-varying random effects in the tvRE and the time-varying fixed effects in the tvFE method. Applications to risk management, portfolio management, asset management and monetary policy are used as examples of these functions usage.
包tvReg的源代码可以从综合R档案网络上公开下载。该包中的五个基本函数是tvLM、tvAR、tvSURE、tvPLM、tvVAR和tvIRF,涵盖了大范围的时变系数半参数模型。此外,该软件包还提供了结果的图形显示、残差和拟合值的提取、带宽选择、误差项时变方差-协方差矩阵的非参数估计方法,以及四种估计方法:tvOLS实现的时变普通最小二乘法、tvGLS实现的时变广义最小二乘法、tvRE实现的时变随机效应和tvFE方法实现的时变固定效应。风险管理、投资组合管理、资产管理和货币政策的应用程序被用作这些功能使用的示例。
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引用次数: 19
Appendix to 'Is Trading Indicator Performance Robust? Evidence from Semi-Parametric Scenario Building' 附录“交易指标表现稳健吗?”来自半参数情景构建的证据
Pub Date : 2019-01-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3246671
Andrea Thomann
This is the online Appendix to "Is Trading Indicator Performance Robust? Evidence from Semi-Parametric Scenario Building"

We provide additional empirical results from other trading indicators.

Abstract of "Is Trading Indicator Performance Robust? Evidence from Semi-Parametric Scenario Building"

This paper challenges widely applied trading indicators in their ability to generate robust performance. In this study we use a semi-parametric scenario building approach to simulate artificial price series based on the characteristics of the observed price. In addition to testing the trading indicators on the observed price series and holding back some observed data for pro forma out-of-sample testing, our price simulations provide a back-testing environment to test trading strategies on artificially created prices. This provides an additional performance assessment by allowing to test the trading indicators for robustness on a large set of artificially created price series with similar characteristics as the observed price series. We find that many trading indicators deliver robust results for certain performance metrics, however, are unable to deliver robust results and improvements across all reported performance metrics. On top, most trading strategies influence the higher order moments of the return distribution; while they improve the skewness—thereby increasing the number of positive returns—in most cases they also increase the kurtosis, introducing undesired additional observations in the tail of the return distributions.
这是“交易指标表现稳健吗?”的在线附录。“我们从其他交易指标中提供了额外的实证结果。“交易指标表现稳健吗?”本文对广泛应用的交易指标产生稳健表现的能力提出了挑战。在本研究中,我们使用半参数情景构建方法来模拟基于观察到的价格特征的人为价格序列。除了在观察到的价格序列上测试交易指标,并保留一些观察到的数据进行形式样本外测试之外,我们的价格模拟还提供了一个回测环境,以测试人为创造的价格上的交易策略。这提供了一个额外的性能评估,允许测试交易指标的稳健性,在一组人工创建的价格序列具有与观察到的价格序列相似的特征。我们发现,许多交易指标为某些绩效指标提供了稳健的结果,然而,无法在所有报告的绩效指标中提供稳健的结果和改进。最重要的是,大多数交易策略影响收益分布的高阶矩;虽然它们改善了偏度,从而增加了正收益的数量,但在大多数情况下,它们也增加了峰度,在收益分布的尾部引入了不必要的额外观察值。
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引用次数: 0
High Dimensional Semiparametric Moment Restriction Models 高维半参数矩约束模型
Pub Date : 2018-11-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3045063
Chaohua Dong, Jiti Gao, O. Linton
We consider nonlinear moment restriction semiparametric models where both the dimension of the parameter vector and the number of restrictions are divergent with sample size and an unknown smooth function is involved. We propose an estimation method based on the sieve generalized method of moments (sieve-GMM). We establish consistency and asymptotic normality for the estimated quantities when the number of parameters increases modestly with sample size. We also consider the case where the number of potential parameters/covariates is very large, i.e., increases rapidly with sample size, but the true model exhibits sparsity. We use a penalized sieve GMM approach to select the relevant variables, and establish the oracle property of our method in this case. We also provide new results for inference. We propose several new test statistics for the over-identification and establish their large sample properties. We provide a simulation study and an application to data from the NLSY79 used by Carneiro et al. [14].
考虑参数向量的维数和约束数随样本量的增大而发散,且涉及未知光滑函数的非线性矩约束半参数模型。提出了一种基于筛广义矩法的估计方法(筛- gmm)。当参数数量随样本量适度增加时,我们建立了估计量的一致性和渐近正态性。我们还考虑了潜在参数/协变量的数量非常大的情况,即随着样本量的增加而迅速增加,但真正的模型显示稀疏性。我们使用惩罚筛选GMM方法来选择相关变量,并在这种情况下建立我们的方法的oracle属性。我们还为推理提供了新的结果。我们提出了几种新的检验统计量用于过度识别,并建立了它们的大样本性质。我们对Carneiro等人使用的NLSY79数据进行了模拟研究和应用。
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引用次数: 6
Semiparametric Maximum Likelihood Sieve Estimator for Correction of Endogenous Truncation Bias 修正内生截断偏差的半参数最大似然筛估计
Pub Date : 2018-11-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3286553
Nir Billfeld, Moshe Kim
Semiparametric correction for a sample selection bias in the presence of endogenous truncation is known to be much more difficult in the case of a binary selection variable than in the case of a continuous selection variable. This paper proposes a simple bandwidth-free semiparametric methodology to correct for a self-selection bias in a truncated sample, without any prior knowledge of the marginal density functions of the selection model’s random disturbances. Each of the unknown marginal density functions is estimated using Sieve estimator, utilizing Hermite polynomials as basis functions. The aforementioned procedure is appropriate for both binary and continuous selection variables cases under the covariate shift assumption. We consider a double hurdle model, which is a combination of two selection rules. The first is propagated by a truncation in the dependent variable of the substantive equation. The second is propagated by endogenous self-selection. The suggested correction procedure produces estimates that are of high accuracy and consistent based on Monte Carlo simulations. The random disturbances are not restricted to being symmetric and their marginal distribution functions are unknown. Thus, in the data generation process we verify the applicability of our procedure to cases in which the disturbances are neither jointly nor marginally normally distributed. These disturbances are constructed as realizations of non-symmetric distribution functions.
对于存在内生截断的样本选择偏差的半参数校正,在二元选择变量的情况下比在连续选择变量的情况下要困难得多。本文提出了一种简单的无带宽半参数方法来纠正截断样本中的自选择偏差,而不需要事先知道选择模型随机干扰的边际密度函数。利用厄米特多项式作为基函数,利用筛估计器对每个未知的边际密度函数进行估计。在协变量移位假设下,上述过程适用于二元和连续选择变量的情况。我们考虑一个双障碍模型,它是两个选择规则的组合。第一个是通过实体方程的因变量的截断来传播的。第二种是通过内生的自我选择繁殖。所建议的修正程序产生了基于蒙特卡罗模拟的高精度和一致性估计。随机扰动不局限于对称,其边际分布函数是未知的。因此,在数据生成过程中,我们验证了我们的程序对干扰既不是联合正态分布也不是边际正态分布的情况的适用性。这些扰动被构造为非对称分布函数的实现。
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引用次数: 0
A Consistent Heteroskedasticity Robust LM Type Specification Test for Semiparametric Models 半参数模型的一致异方差稳健LM型规格检验
Pub Date : 2018-10-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3458412
I. Korolev
This paper develops a consistent heteroskedasticity robust Lagrange Multiplier (LM) type specification test for semiparametric conditional mean models. Consistency is achieved by turning a conditional moment restriction into a growing number of unconditional moment restrictions using series methods. The proposed test statistic is straightforward to compute and is asymptotically standard normal under the null. Compared with the earlier literature on series-based specification tests in parametric models, I rely on the projection property of series estimators and derive a different normalization of the test statistic. Compared with the recent test in Gupta (2018), I use a different way of accounting for heteroskedasticity. I demonstrate using Monte Carlo studies that my test has superior finite sample performance compared with the existing tests. I apply the test to one of the semiparametric gasoline demand specifications from Yatchew and No (2001) and find no evidence against it.
本文建立了半参数条件平均模型的一致异方差鲁棒拉格朗日乘数(LM)型规范检验。一致性是通过使用级数方法将一个条件矩约束转化为越来越多的无条件矩约束来实现的。所提出的检验统计量易于计算,并且是零下的渐近标准正态。与先前关于参数模型中基于序列的规格检验的文献相比,我依赖于序列估计量的投影性质并推导出检验统计量的不同归一化。与Gupta(2018)最近的测试相比,我使用了一种不同的方法来计算异方差。我使用蒙特卡罗研究证明,与现有测试相比,我的测试具有优越的有限样本性能。我将测试应用于Yatchew和No(2001)的半参数汽油需求规格之一,并没有发现反对它的证据。
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引用次数: 2
Semiparametric Identification in Panel Data Discrete Response Models 面板数据离散响应模型的半参数辨识
Pub Date : 2018-08-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3420016
E. Aristodemou
This paper studies semiparametric identification in linear index discrete response panel data models with fixed effects. Departing from the classic binary response static panel data model, this paper examines identification in the binary response dynamic panel data model and the ordered response static panel data model. It is shown that under mild distributional assumptions on the fixed effect and the time-varying unobservables, point-identification fails but informative bounds on the regression coefficients can still be derived. Partial identification is achieved by eliminating the fixed effect and discovering features of the distribution of the unobservable time-varying components that do not depend on the unobserved heterogeneity. Numerical analyses illustrate how the identified set changes as the support of the explanatory variables varies.
研究了具有固定效应的线性指标离散响应面板数据模型的半参数辨识问题。本文从经典的二元响应静态面板数据模型出发,研究了二元响应动态面板数据模型和有序响应静态面板数据模型中的识别问题。结果表明,在固定效应和时变不可观测量的温和分布假设下,点识别失败,但仍然可以导出回归系数的信息界。通过消除固定效应和发现不依赖于不可观测异质性的不可观测时变分量的分布特征来实现部分识别。数值分析表明,随着解释变量的支持度的变化,识别集是如何变化的。
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引用次数: 19
Semiparametric Testing With Highly Persistent Predictors 具有高度持续性预测因子的半参数检验
Pub Date : 2018-07-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3213484
B. Werker, Bo Zhou
We address the issue of semiparametric efficiency in the bivariate regression problem with a highly persistent predictor, where the joint distribution of the innovations is regarded an infinite-dimensional nuisance parameter. Using a structural representation of the limit experiment and exploiting invariance relationships therein, we construct invariant point-optimal tests for the regression coefficient of interest. This approach naturally leads to a family of feasible tests based on the component-wise ranks of the innovations that can gain considerable power relative to existing tests under non-Gaussian innovation distributions, while behaving equivalently under Gaussianity. When an i.i.d. assumption on the innovations is appropriate for the data at hand, our tests exploit the efficiency gains possible. Moreover, we show by simulation that our test remains well behaved under some forms of conditional heteroskedasticity.
我们用高度持久的预测器解决双变量回归问题中的半参数效率问题,其中创新的联合分布被认为是一个无限维的讨厌参数。利用极限实验的结构表示,利用其中的不变性关系,构造了感兴趣回归系数的不变性点最优检验。这种方法自然会产生一系列可行的测试,这些测试基于创新的组件级别,相对于非高斯创新分布下的现有测试,这些测试可以获得相当大的能力,同时在高斯分布下表现相同。当对创新的i.i.d 假设适合手头的数据时,我们的测试将利用可能的效率增益。此外,我们通过模拟表明,我们的测试在某些形式的条件异方差下仍然表现良好。
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引用次数: 4
Varying-Coefficient Panel Data Models with Partially Observed Factor Structure 部分观测因子结构的变系数面板数据模型
Pub Date : 2018-01-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3102631
Chaohua Dong, Jiti Gao, B. Peng
In this paper, we study a varying-coefficient panel data model with nonstationarity, wherein a factor structure is adopted to capture different effects of time invariant variables over time. The methodology employed in this paper fills a gap of dealing with the mixed I(1)/I(0) regressors and factors in the literature. For comparison purposes, we consider the scenarios where the factors are either observable or unobservable, respectively. We propose an estimation method for both the unknown coefficient functions involved and the unknown factors before we establish the corresponding theory. We then evaluate the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimation theory through extensive Monte Carlo simulations. In an empirical study, we use our newly proposed model and method to study the returns to scale of large commercial banks in the U.S.. Some overlooked modelling issues in the literature of production econometrics are addressed.
本文研究了具有非平稳性的变系数面板数据模型,其中采用因子结构来捕捉时不变变量随时间的不同影响。本文采用的方法填补了文献中处理混合I(1)/I(0)回归量和因子的空白。为了进行比较,我们分别考虑了这些因素可观察到或不可观察到的情况。在建立相应的理论之前,我们对所涉及的未知系数函数和未知因素提出了一种估计方法。然后,我们通过广泛的蒙特卡罗模拟来评估所提出的估计理论的有限样本性能。在实证研究中,我们运用新提出的模型和方法对美国大型商业银行的规模收益进行了研究。一些被忽视的建模问题,在文献生产计量经济学解决。
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引用次数: 4
On the Convergence Rate of the SCAD-Penalized Empirical Likelihood Estimator scad惩罚经验似然估计的收敛速度
Pub Date : 2017-11-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3079386
T. Ando, N. Sueishi
This paper investigates the asymptotic properties of a penalized empirical likelihood estimator for moment restriction models when the number of parameters ( p n ) and/or the number of moment restrictions increases with the sample size. Our main result is that the SCAD-penalized empirical likelihood estimator is n / p n -consistent under a reasonable condition on the regularization parameter. Our consistency rate is better than the existing ones. This paper also provides sufficient conditions under which n / p n -consistency and an oracle property are satisfied simultaneously. As far as we know, this paper is the first to specify sufficient conditions for both n / p n -consistency and the oracle property of the penalized empirical likelihood estimator.
本文研究了矩约束模型在参数数目(p n)和/或矩约束数目随样本量增加时的惩罚经验似然估计的渐近性质。我们的主要结果是,scad惩罚的经验似然估计量在正则化参数的合理条件下是n / p n一致的。我们的一致性比现有的好。本文还给出了同时满足n / p n -一致性和一个oracle性质的充分条件。据我们所知,本文首次给出了惩罚经验似然估计的n / p n -一致性和预言性的充分条件。
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引用次数: 3
Semiparametric Quantile Averaging in the Presence of High-Dimensional Predictors 高维预测因子存在下的半参数分位数平均
Pub Date : 2017-10-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3057523
J. De Gooijer, D. Zerom
Abstract The paper proposes a method for forecasting conditional quantiles. In practice, one often does not know the “true” structure of the underlying conditional quantile function, and in addition, we may have a large number of predictors. Focusing on such cases, we introduce a flexible and practical framework based on penalized high-dimensional quantile averaging. In addition to prediction, we show that the proposed method can also serve as a predictor selector. We conduct extensive simulation experiments to asses its prediction and variable selection performances for nonlinear and linear time series model designs. In terms of predictor selection, the approach tends to select the true set of predictors with minimal false positives. With respect to prediction accuracy, the method competes well even with the benchmark/oracle methods that know one or more aspects of the underlying quantile regression model. We further illustrate the merit of the proposed method by providing an application to the out-of-sample forecasting of U.S. core inflation using a large set of monthly macroeconomic variables based on FRED-MD database. The application offers several empirical findings.
提出了一种预测条件分位数的方法。在实践中,人们通常不知道潜在条件分位数函数的“真实”结构,此外,我们可能有大量的预测因子。针对这种情况,我们引入了一种灵活实用的基于惩罚高维分位数平均的框架。除了预测外,我们还证明了该方法还可以作为预测器选择器。我们进行了大量的仿真实验,以评估其对非线性和线性时间序列模型设计的预测和变量选择性能。在预测器选择方面,该方法倾向于选择具有最小假阳性的真实预测器集。就预测准确性而言,该方法甚至可以与了解底层分位数回归模型的一个或多个方面的基准/oracle方法相媲美。我们进一步说明了所提出的方法的优点,通过提供一个应用于美国核心通货膨胀的样本外预测,使用基于FRED-MD数据库的大量月度宏观经济变量。该应用程序提供了几个实证结果。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
ERN: Semiparametric & Nonparametric Methods (Topic)
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