首页 > 最新文献

ERN: Semiparametric & Nonparametric Methods (Topic)最新文献

英文 中文
Counterfactual Evaluation in Semiparametric Multinomial Choice Models 半参数多项式选择模型的反事实评价
Pub Date : 2017-05-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3006737
K. Chiong, Yu-Wei Hsieh, M. Shum
We propose using cyclic monotonicity, a convex-analytic property of the random utility choice model, to derive bounds on counterfactual choice probabilities in semiparametric multinomial choice models. These bounds are useful for typical counterfactual exercises in aggregate discrete-choice demand models. In our semiparametric approach, we do not specify the parametric distribution for the utility shocks, thus accommodating a wide variety of substitution patterns among alternatives. Computation of the counterfactual bounds is a tractable linear programming problem. We illustrate our approach in a series of Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application using scanner data.
利用随机效用选择模型的一个凸解析性质——循环单调性,给出了半参数多项选择模型中反事实选择概率的界。这些边界对于总体离散选择需求模型中的典型反事实练习是有用的。在我们的半参数方法中,我们没有指定效用冲击的参数分布,因此在替代方案中容纳了各种各样的替代模式。反事实界的计算是一个可处理的线性规划问题。我们在一系列蒙特卡罗模拟和使用扫描仪数据的经验应用中说明了我们的方法。
{"title":"Counterfactual Evaluation in Semiparametric Multinomial Choice Models","authors":"K. Chiong, Yu-Wei Hsieh, M. Shum","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3006737","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3006737","url":null,"abstract":"We propose using cyclic monotonicity, a convex-analytic property of the random utility choice model, to derive bounds on counterfactual choice probabilities in semiparametric multinomial choice models. These bounds are useful for typical counterfactual exercises in aggregate discrete-choice demand models. In our semiparametric approach, we do not specify the parametric distribution for the utility shocks, thus accommodating a wide variety of substitution patterns among alternatives. Computation of the counterfactual bounds is a tractable linear programming problem. We illustrate our approach in a series of Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application using scanner data.","PeriodicalId":264857,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Semiparametric & Nonparametric Methods (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126054881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Pension Eligibility Rules and the Local Causal Effect of Retirement on Cognitive Functioning 养老金资格规则及退休对认知功能的局部因果效应
Pub Date : 2017-05-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2993152
Eduardo Fé
We present a nonparametric bounds analysis of the local average treatment effect (LATE) of retirement on cognitive functioning. Partial identification methods are used to obtain identification regions for LATE and empirically assess the extent to which the critical exclusion restriction is satisfied. We find that retirement can lead to, at most, a drop of around 0.8 correct answer in a 20-question memory task. Importantly, we find strong evidence against the universal validity of pension eligibility criteria as sources of valid instrumental variables for retirement.
我们提出了退休对认知功能的局部平均治疗效果(LATE)的非参数界分析。采用部分识别方法获得了LATE的识别区域,并对其满足临界不排除限制的程度进行了经验评估。我们发现,在一项20道题的记忆任务中,退休最多只能导致0.8个正确率下降。重要的是,我们发现强有力的证据反对养老金资格标准作为有效工具变量来源的普遍有效性。
{"title":"Pension Eligibility Rules and the Local Causal Effect of Retirement on Cognitive Functioning","authors":"Eduardo Fé","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2993152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2993152","url":null,"abstract":"We present a nonparametric bounds analysis of the local average treatment effect (LATE) of retirement on cognitive functioning. Partial identification methods are used to obtain identification regions for LATE and empirically assess the extent to which the critical exclusion restriction is satisfied. We find that retirement can lead to, at most, a drop of around 0.8 correct answer in a 20-question memory task. Importantly, we find strong evidence against the universal validity of pension eligibility criteria as sources of valid instrumental variables for retirement.","PeriodicalId":264857,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Semiparametric & Nonparametric Methods (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123814881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Efficient Estimation of Integrated Volatility Functionals via Multiscale Jackknife 基于多尺度折刀的综合波动函数的高效估计
Pub Date : 2017-03-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2942235
Jia Li, Yunxiao Liu, D. Xiu
We propose semi-parametrically efficient estimators for general integrated volatility functionals of multivariate semimartingale processes. It is known that a plug-in method that uses nonparametric estimates of spot volatilities induces high-order biases which need to be corrected to obey a central limit theorem. Such bias terms arise from boundary effects, the diffusive and jump movements of stochastic volatility, and the sampling error from the nonparametric spot volatility estimation. We propose a novel jackknife method for bias-correction. The jackknife estimator is simply formed as a linear combination of a few uncorrected estimators associated with different local window sizes used in the estimation of spot volatility. We show theoretically that our estimator is asymptotically mixed Gaussian, semi-parametrically efficient, and more robust to the choice of local windows. To facilitate the practical use, we introduce a simulation-based estimator of the asymptotic variance, so that our inference is derivative-free and, hence, is very convenient to implement.
提出了多元半鞅过程的一般积分波动函数的半参数有效估计。众所周知,使用非参数估计现货波动率的插件方法会产生高阶偏差,需要根据中心极限定理进行校正。这种偏差项来自于边界效应、随机波动率的扩散和跳跃运动,以及非参数现货波动率估计的抽样误差。提出了一种新的叠刀校正方法。叠刀估计量简单地形成为与不同局部窗口大小相关的几个未校正估计量的线性组合,用于估计现货波动率。我们从理论上证明了我们的估计器是渐近混合高斯的,半参数有效的,并且对局部窗口的选择具有更强的鲁棒性。为了便于实际应用,我们引入了一个基于模拟的渐近方差估计量,使我们的推断是无导数的,因此,实现起来非常方便。
{"title":"Efficient Estimation of Integrated Volatility Functionals via Multiscale Jackknife","authors":"Jia Li, Yunxiao Liu, D. Xiu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2942235","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2942235","url":null,"abstract":"We propose semi-parametrically efficient estimators for general integrated volatility functionals of multivariate semimartingale processes. It is known that a plug-in method that uses nonparametric estimates of spot volatilities induces high-order biases which need to be corrected to obey a central limit theorem. Such bias terms arise from boundary effects, the diffusive and jump movements of stochastic volatility, and the sampling error from the nonparametric spot volatility estimation. We propose a novel jackknife method for bias-correction. The jackknife estimator is simply formed as a linear combination of a few uncorrected estimators associated with different local window sizes used in the estimation of spot volatility. We show theoretically that our estimator is asymptotically mixed Gaussian, semi-parametrically efficient, and more robust to the choice of local windows. To facilitate the practical use, we introduce a simulation-based estimator of the asymptotic variance, so that our inference is derivative-free and, hence, is very convenient to implement.","PeriodicalId":264857,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Semiparametric & Nonparametric Methods (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122480871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 25
Penalized Quantile Regression with Semiparametric Correlated Effects: Applications with Heterogeneous Preferences 半参数相关效应的惩罚分位数回归:异质偏好的应用
Pub Date : 2017-03-01 DOI: 10.1002/JAE.2520
M. Harding, Carlos Lamarche
This paper proposes new ?1-penalized quantile regression estimators for panel data, which explicitly allows for individual heterogeneity associated with covariates. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to assess the small sample performance of the new estimators and provide comparisons of new and existing penalized estimators in terms of quadratic loss. We apply the techniques to two empirical studies. First, the new method is applied to the estimation of labor supply elasticities and we find evidence that positive substitution effects dominate negative wealth effects at the middle of the conditional distribution of hours. The overall effect tends to be larger at the lower tail, which suggests that changes in taxes have different effects across the response distribution. Second, we estimate consumer preferences for nutrients from a demand model using a large scanner dataset of household food purchases. We show that preferences for nutrients vary across the conditional distribution of expenditure and across genders, and emphasize the importance of fully capturing consumer heterogeneity in demand modeling. Both applications highlight the importance of estimating individual heterogeneity when designing economic policy.
本文提出了新的1惩罚分位数回归估计面板数据,它明确地允许与协变量相关的个体异质性。我们进行蒙特卡罗模拟来评估新估计器的小样本性能,并在二次损失方面对新的和现有的惩罚估计器进行比较。我们将这些技术应用于两个实证研究。首先,将新方法应用于劳动力供给弹性的估计,发现在工时条件分配的中间位置,正替代效应主导负财富效应。总体效应往往在低尾处更大,这表明税收的变化在整个响应分布中有不同的影响。其次,我们使用家庭食品购买的大型扫描数据集,从需求模型中估计消费者对营养素的偏好。我们表明,对营养物质的偏好在支出的条件分布和性别之间存在差异,并强调了在需求建模中充分捕捉消费者异质性的重要性。这两个应用都强调了在设计经济政策时估计个体异质性的重要性。
{"title":"Penalized Quantile Regression with Semiparametric Correlated Effects: Applications with Heterogeneous Preferences","authors":"M. Harding, Carlos Lamarche","doi":"10.1002/JAE.2520","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/JAE.2520","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes new ?1-penalized quantile regression estimators for panel data, which explicitly allows for individual heterogeneity associated with covariates. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to assess the small sample performance of the new estimators and provide comparisons of new and existing penalized estimators in terms of quadratic loss. We apply the techniques to two empirical studies. First, the new method is applied to the estimation of labor supply elasticities and we find evidence that positive substitution effects dominate negative wealth effects at the middle of the conditional distribution of hours. The overall effect tends to be larger at the lower tail, which suggests that changes in taxes have different effects across the response distribution. Second, we estimate consumer preferences for nutrients from a demand model using a large scanner dataset of household food purchases. We show that preferences for nutrients vary across the conditional distribution of expenditure and across genders, and emphasize the importance of fully capturing consumer heterogeneity in demand modeling. Both applications highlight the importance of estimating individual heterogeneity when designing economic policy.","PeriodicalId":264857,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Semiparametric & Nonparametric Methods (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132483435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 28
Comparison of Parametric and Semiparametric Representations of Unobserved Preference Heterogeneity in Logit Models Logit模型中未观察到的偏好异质性的参数和半参数表示比较
Pub Date : 2016-12-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2902402
P. Bansal, Ricardo A. Daziano, Martin Achtnicht
The logit-mixed logit (LML) model is a very recent advancement in semiparametric discrete choice models. LML represents the mixing distribution of a logit kernel as a sieve function (polynomials, step functions, and splines, among many other variants). In the first part of this paper, we conduct Monte-Carlo studies to analyze the number of required parameters (e.g., polynomial order) in three LML variants to recover the true population distributions, and also compare the performance (in terms of accuracy, precision, estimation time, and model fit) of LML and a mixed multinomial logit with normal heterogeneity (MMNL-N). Our results indicate that adding too many parameters in LML may not be the best strategy to retrieve underlying taste heterogeneity; in fact, overspecified models generally perform worst in terms of BIC. We recommend to use neither minimum-BIC nor the most flexible specification, but we rather suggest to start with the same number of parameters as a parametric model (such as MMNL-N) while checking changes in the derived histogram of the mixing distribution. As expected, LML was able to recover bimodal-normal, lognormal, and uniform distributions much better than the misspecified MMNL-N. Computational efficiency makes LML advantageous in the process of searching for the final specification. In the second part of the paper, we estimate the willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates of German consumers for different vehicle attributes when making alternative-fuel-car purchase choices. LML was able to capture the bimodal nature of WTP for vehicle attributes, which was not possible to retrieve using standard parametric specifications.
logit-mixed logit (LML)模型是半参数离散选择模型的最新进展。LML将logit核的混合分布表示为筛函数(多项式、阶跃函数和样条,以及许多其他变体)。在本文的第一部分中,我们通过蒙特卡罗研究分析了三种LML变量中恢复真实总体分布所需参数(如多项式阶数)的数量,并比较了LML和具有正态异质性的混合多项式logit (MMNL-N)的性能(准确度、精度、估计时间和模型拟合)。我们的研究结果表明,在LML中添加太多参数可能不是检索潜在味道异质性的最佳策略;事实上,就BIC而言,过度指定的模型通常表现最差。我们建议既不要使用最小bic,也不要使用最灵活的规范,而是建议在检查混合分布的派生直方图的变化时,从与参数模型(如MMNL-N)相同数量的参数开始。正如预期的那样,LML能够比错误指定的MMNL-N更好地恢复双峰正态分布、对数正态分布和均匀分布。计算效率使LML在搜索最终规范的过程中具有优势。在论文的第二部分,我们估计了德国消费者在购买替代燃料汽车时对不同车辆属性的支付意愿(WTP)估计。LML能够捕获车辆属性的WTP的双峰特性,这是使用标准参数规范无法检索的。
{"title":"Comparison of Parametric and Semiparametric Representations of Unobserved Preference Heterogeneity in Logit Models","authors":"P. Bansal, Ricardo A. Daziano, Martin Achtnicht","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2902402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2902402","url":null,"abstract":"The logit-mixed logit (LML) model is a very recent advancement in semiparametric discrete choice models. LML represents the mixing distribution of a logit kernel as a sieve function (polynomials, step functions, and splines, among many other variants). In the first part of this paper, we conduct Monte-Carlo studies to analyze the number of required parameters (e.g., polynomial order) in three LML variants to recover the true population distributions, and also compare the performance (in terms of accuracy, precision, estimation time, and model fit) of LML and a mixed multinomial logit with normal heterogeneity (MMNL-N). Our results indicate that adding too many parameters in LML may not be the best strategy to retrieve underlying taste heterogeneity; in fact, overspecified models generally perform worst in terms of BIC. We recommend to use neither minimum-BIC nor the most flexible specification, but we rather suggest to start with the same number of parameters as a parametric model (such as MMNL-N) while checking changes in the derived histogram of the mixing distribution. As expected, LML was able to recover bimodal-normal, lognormal, and uniform distributions much better than the misspecified MMNL-N. Computational efficiency makes LML advantageous in the process of searching for the final specification. In the second part of the paper, we estimate the willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates of German consumers for different vehicle attributes when making alternative-fuel-car purchase choices. LML was able to capture the bimodal nature of WTP for vehicle attributes, which was not possible to retrieve using standard parametric specifications.","PeriodicalId":264857,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Semiparametric & Nonparametric Methods (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115108441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 15
An Infinite Hidden Markov Model for Short-term Interest Rates 短期利率的无限隐马尔可夫模型
Pub Date : 2016-05-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3521099
J. Maheu, Qiao Yang
The time-series dynamics of short-term interest rates are important as they are a key input into pricing models of the term structure of interest rates. In this paper we extend popular discrete time short-rate models to include Markov switching of infinite dimension. This is a Bayesian nonparametric model that allows for changes in the unknown conditional distribution over time. Applied to weekly U.S. data we find significant parameter change over time and strong evidence of non-Gaussian conditional distributions. Our new model with a hierarchical prior provides significant improvements in density forecasts as well as point forecasts. We find evidence of recurring regimes as well as structural breaks in the empirical application.
短期利率的时间序列动态很重要,因为它们是利率期限结构定价模型的关键输入。本文扩展了流行的离散时间短速率模型,使其包含无限维的马尔可夫切换。这是一个贝叶斯非参数模型,它允许未知条件分布随时间的变化。应用于每周的美国数据,我们发现参数随时间的显著变化和非高斯条件分布的有力证据。我们的新模型具有层次先验,在密度预测和点预测方面提供了显著的改进。我们在经验应用中发现了反复出现的制度以及结构性断裂的证据。
{"title":"An Infinite Hidden Markov Model for Short-term Interest Rates","authors":"J. Maheu, Qiao Yang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3521099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3521099","url":null,"abstract":"The time-series dynamics of short-term interest rates are important as they are a key input into pricing models of the term structure of interest rates. In this paper we extend popular discrete time short-rate models to include Markov switching of infinite dimension. This is a Bayesian nonparametric model that allows for changes in the unknown conditional distribution over time. Applied to weekly U.S. data we find significant parameter change over time and strong evidence of non-Gaussian conditional distributions. Our new model with a hierarchical prior provides significant improvements in density forecasts as well as point forecasts. We find evidence of recurring regimes as well as structural breaks in the empirical application.","PeriodicalId":264857,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Semiparametric & Nonparametric Methods (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114458728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 26
Measuring Productivity When Technologies are Heterogeneous: A Semi-Parametric Approach for Electricity Generation 测量技术异质时的生产力:发电的半参数方法
Pub Date : 2015-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2698067
S. Seifert
While productivity growth in electricity generation is associated with multiple positive effects from an economic and environmental perspective, measuring it is challenging. This paper proposes a framework to estimate and decompose productivity growth for a sector characterized by multiple technologies. Using a metafrontier Malmquist decomposition and frontier estimation based on stochastic non-smooth envelopment of data (StoNED) allows for productivity estimation with few microeconomic assumptions. Additionally, evaluation of productivity at representative hypothetical units permits distribution-free analysis for the whole distribution of power plant sizes. The proposed framework is used to analyze a unique and rich dataset of coal, lignite, gas, and biomass-fired generators operating in Germany from 2003 to 2010. The results indicate stagnating productivity for the sector as a whole, technical progress for biomass plants, and very high productivity for gas-fired plants.
虽然从经济和环境的角度来看,发电生产力的增长具有多重积极影响,但衡量它是具有挑战性的。本文提出了一个框架来估计和分解具有多种技术特征的部门的生产率增长。使用基于随机非光滑数据包络(StoNED)的超前沿Malmquist分解和前沿估计,可以在很少的微观经济假设下进行生产率估计。此外,对代表性假设单位的生产率进行评估,允许对电厂规模的整体分布进行无分布分析。提出的框架用于分析2003年至2010年在德国运行的煤、褐煤、天然气和生物质发电机组的独特而丰富的数据集。结果表明,整个行业的生产率停滞不前,生物质电厂的技术进步,燃气电厂的生产率非常高。
{"title":"Measuring Productivity When Technologies are Heterogeneous: A Semi-Parametric Approach for Electricity Generation","authors":"S. Seifert","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2698067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2698067","url":null,"abstract":"While productivity growth in electricity generation is associated with multiple positive effects from an economic and environmental perspective, measuring it is challenging. This paper proposes a framework to estimate and decompose productivity growth for a sector characterized by multiple technologies. Using a metafrontier Malmquist decomposition and frontier estimation based on stochastic non-smooth envelopment of data (StoNED) allows for productivity estimation with few microeconomic assumptions. Additionally, evaluation of productivity at representative hypothetical units permits distribution-free analysis for the whole distribution of power plant sizes. The proposed framework is used to analyze a unique and rich dataset of coal, lignite, gas, and biomass-fired generators operating in Germany from 2003 to 2010. The results indicate stagnating productivity for the sector as a whole, technical progress for biomass plants, and very high productivity for gas-fired plants.","PeriodicalId":264857,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Semiparametric & Nonparametric Methods (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129885040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Regression Discontinuity Designs with Nonclassical Measurement Errors 具有非经典测量误差的回归不连续设计
Pub Date : 2015-10-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3080198
Takahide Yanagi
This paper develops a nonparametric identification analysis in regression discontinuity (RD) designs where each observable may contain measurement error. Our analysis allows the measurement error to be nonclassical in the sense that it can be arbitrarily dependent of the unobservables as long as the joint distribution satisfies a few smoothness conditions. We provide formal identification conditions under which the standard RD estimand based on the observables identifies a local weighted average treatment effect parameter. We also show that our identifying conditions imply a testable implication of the continuous density of the observable assignment variable.
本文发展了回归不连续(RD)设计中的非参数识别分析,其中每个观测值可能包含测量误差。我们的分析允许测量误差是非经典的,因为它可以任意地依赖于不可观测值,只要联合分布满足一些平滑条件。我们提供了正式的识别条件,在该条件下,基于可观测值的标准RD估计识别局部加权平均处理效果参数。我们还证明了我们的识别条件蕴涵着可观测赋值变量连续密度的可检验含义。
{"title":"Regression Discontinuity Designs with Nonclassical Measurement Errors","authors":"Takahide Yanagi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3080198","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3080198","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a nonparametric identification analysis in regression discontinuity (RD) designs where each observable may contain measurement error. Our analysis allows the measurement error to be nonclassical in the sense that it can be arbitrarily dependent of the unobservables as long as the joint distribution satisfies a few smoothness conditions. We provide formal identification conditions under which the standard RD estimand based on the observables identifies a local weighted average treatment effect parameter. We also show that our identifying conditions imply a testable implication of the continuous density of the observable assignment variable.","PeriodicalId":264857,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Semiparametric & Nonparametric Methods (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133922544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Semiparametric Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Multiple Conditioning Variables 具有多条件变量的半参数动态投资组合选择
Pub Date : 2015-02-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2563317
Jia Chen, Degui Li, O. Linton, Zudi Lu
Dynamic portfolio choice has been a central and essential objective for investors in active asset management. In this paper, we study the dynamic portfolio choice with multiple conditioning variables, where the dimension of the conditioning variables can be either fixed or diverging to infinity at certain polynomial rate of the sample size. We propose a novel data-driven method to estimate the optimal portfolio choice, motivated by the model averaging marginal regression approach suggested by Li et al. (2015). More specifically, in order to avoid the curse of dimensionality associated with the multivariate nonparametric regression problem and to make it practically implementable, we first estimate the marginal optimal portfolio choice by maximizing the conditional utility function for each univariate conditioning variable, and then construct the joint dynamic optimal portfolio through the weighted average of the marginal optimal portfolio across all the conditioning variables. Under some regularity conditions, we establish the large sample properties for the developed portfolio choice procedure. Both the simulation study and empirical application well demonstrate the finite-sample performance of the proposed methodology.
动态投资组合选择一直是投资者积极资产管理的核心和基本目标。本文研究了具有多个条件变量的动态投资组合选择问题,其中条件变量的维数可以是固定的,也可以在样本容量的多项式速率下趋于无穷。我们提出了一种新的数据驱动方法来估计最优投资组合选择,其动机是Li等人(2015)提出的模型平均边际回归方法。具体而言,为了避免多变量非参数回归问题的维数诅咒并使其具有可操作性,我们首先通过最大化每个单变量条件效用函数来估计边际最优投资组合选择,然后通过对所有条件变量的边际最优投资组合进行加权平均来构造联合动态最优投资组合。在一定的正则性条件下,我们建立了已开发的投资组合选择过程的大样本性质。仿真研究和经验应用都很好地证明了所提出方法的有限样本性能。
{"title":"Semiparametric Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Multiple Conditioning Variables","authors":"Jia Chen, Degui Li, O. Linton, Zudi Lu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2563317","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2563317","url":null,"abstract":"Dynamic portfolio choice has been a central and essential objective for investors in active asset management. In this paper, we study the dynamic portfolio choice with multiple conditioning variables, where the dimension of the conditioning variables can be either fixed or diverging to infinity at certain polynomial rate of the sample size. We propose a novel data-driven method to estimate the optimal portfolio choice, motivated by the model averaging marginal regression approach suggested by Li et al. (2015). More specifically, in order to avoid the curse of dimensionality associated with the multivariate nonparametric regression problem and to make it practically implementable, we first estimate the marginal optimal portfolio choice by maximizing the conditional utility function for each univariate conditioning variable, and then construct the joint dynamic optimal portfolio through the weighted average of the marginal optimal portfolio across all the conditioning variables. Under some regularity conditions, we establish the large sample properties for the developed portfolio choice procedure. Both the simulation study and empirical application well demonstrate the finite-sample performance of the proposed methodology.","PeriodicalId":264857,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Semiparametric & Nonparametric Methods (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133195183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
Obesity and Health-Related Decisions: An Empirical Model of The Determinants of Weight Status 肥胖与健康相关决策:体重状况决定因素的实证模型
Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2532479
Leonardo Fabio Morales, P. Gordon-Larsen, David K. Guilkey
Using Add Health, a very comprehensive longitudinal data set of teenagers and young adults in the United States, we estimate a structural dynamic model of the determinants of obesity. In addition to including many of the well-recognized endogenous factors mentioned in the literature as obesity determinants, i.e., physical activity, smoking, a proxy for food consumption, and childbearing, we also model the residential location as a choice variable, relevant to the young-to middle-aged adult, as a major component. This allows us to control for an individual’s self-selection into communities which possess the types of amenities in the built environment which in turn affect their behaviors such as physical activity and fast food consumption. We specify reduced form equations for all these endogenous demand decisions, together with an obesity structural equation. The whole system of equations is jointly estimated by a semi-parametric full information log-likelihood method that allows for a general pattern of correlation in the errors across equations. Simulations are then used to allow us to quantify the effects of these endogenous factors on the probability of obesity. A key finding is that controlling for residential self-selection has important substantive implications. To our knowledge, this has not been yet documented within a full information maximum likelihood framework.
使用Add Health,一个非常全面的美国青少年和年轻人的纵向数据集,我们估计了肥胖决定因素的结构动态模型。除了包括文献中提到的许多公认的内源性因素作为肥胖决定因素,即体育活动,吸烟,食物消费的代理和生育,我们还将居住地点作为一个选择变量建模,与青年到中年人相关,作为一个主要组成部分。这使我们能够控制个人对社区的自我选择,这些社区拥有建筑环境中的便利设施类型,从而影响他们的行为,如体育活动和快餐消费。我们指定了所有这些内生需求决策的简化形式方程,以及肥胖结构方程。整个方程组通过半参数全信息对数似然方法进行联合估计,该方法允许跨方程误差的一般相关模式。然后,模拟可以让我们量化这些内源性因素对肥胖概率的影响。一个重要的发现是,控制居住自我选择具有重要的实质性意义。据我们所知,这还没有在一个完整的信息最大可能性框架内被记录下来。
{"title":"Obesity and Health-Related Decisions: An Empirical Model of The Determinants of Weight Status","authors":"Leonardo Fabio Morales, P. Gordon-Larsen, David K. Guilkey","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2532479","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2532479","url":null,"abstract":"Using Add Health, a very comprehensive longitudinal data set of teenagers and young adults in the United States, we estimate a structural dynamic model of the determinants of obesity. In addition to including many of the well-recognized endogenous factors mentioned in the literature as obesity determinants, i.e., physical activity, smoking, a proxy for food consumption, and childbearing, we also model the residential location as a choice variable, relevant to the young-to middle-aged adult, as a major component. This allows us to control for an individual’s self-selection into communities which possess the types of amenities in the built environment which in turn affect their behaviors such as physical activity and fast food consumption. We specify reduced form equations for all these endogenous demand decisions, together with an obesity structural equation. The whole system of equations is jointly estimated by a semi-parametric full information log-likelihood method that allows for a general pattern of correlation in the errors across equations. Simulations are then used to allow us to quantify the effects of these endogenous factors on the probability of obesity. A key finding is that controlling for residential self-selection has important substantive implications. To our knowledge, this has not been yet documented within a full information maximum likelihood framework.","PeriodicalId":264857,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Semiparametric & Nonparametric Methods (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132327389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
期刊
ERN: Semiparametric & Nonparametric Methods (Topic)
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1