Pub Date : 2021-12-31DOI: 10.24309/recta.2021.22.2.04
Monch. Fandi Ansori, N. Sumarti, K. A. Sidarto, I. Gunadi
Bank Indonesia, el banco central de Indonesia, ha realizado ajustes en un instrumento de política macroprudencial llamado índice de intermediación macroprudencial (IIM) para impulsar el crecimiento de los préstamos en el contexto de la recuperación económica nacional debido a la pandemia de COVID-19. En este artículo, se desarrolla un modelo dinámico de préstamo bancario con comportamiento procíclico, y se equipa con el instrumento predecesor del IIM denominado requerimiento de reserva basado en la relación préstamo-depósito (RR-RPD). Examinamos los efectos de los parámetros RR-RPD en la dinámica del préstamo utilizando el análisis de bifurcación de colisión de fronteras para determinar los valores umbral de los parámetros RR-RPD para que se pueda mantener la estabilidad del equilibrio del préstamo. Este modelo se aplica a los datos mensuales de los bancos comerciales de Indonesia antes y durante la pandemia de COVID-19 para evaluar la región de estabilidad de los parámetros del instrumento.Alternate :Bank Indonesia, the central bank of Indonesia, has made adjustment settings in a macroprudential policy instrument called macroprudential intermediation ratio (MIR) to boost loan growth in the context of national economic recovery due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, a dynamic model of bank loan with procyclicality behavior is developed, and it is equipped with the predecessor of the MIR instrument called loan-to-deposit ratio based reserve requirement (LDR-RR). We examine the effects of LDR-RR parameters on the dynamics of loan using the border collision bifurcation analysis to determine the threshold values of the LDR-RR parameters so that the stability of loan equilibrium can be maintained. This model is applied to monthly data of Indonesian commercial banks before and during the COVID-19 pandemic to assess the stability region of the instrument parameters.
{"title":"Analyzing a macroprudential instrument during the COVID-19 pandemic using border collision bifurcation","authors":"Monch. Fandi Ansori, N. Sumarti, K. A. Sidarto, I. Gunadi","doi":"10.24309/recta.2021.22.2.04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24309/recta.2021.22.2.04","url":null,"abstract":"Bank Indonesia, el banco central de Indonesia, ha realizado ajustes en un instrumento de política macroprudencial llamado índice de intermediación macroprudencial (IIM) para impulsar el crecimiento de los préstamos en el contexto de la recuperación económica nacional debido a la pandemia de COVID-19. En este artículo, se desarrolla un modelo dinámico de préstamo bancario con comportamiento procíclico, y se equipa con el instrumento predecesor del IIM denominado requerimiento de reserva basado en la relación préstamo-depósito (RR-RPD). Examinamos los efectos de los parámetros RR-RPD en la dinámica del préstamo utilizando el análisis de bifurcación de colisión de fronteras para determinar los valores umbral de los parámetros RR-RPD para que se pueda mantener la estabilidad del equilibrio del préstamo. Este modelo se aplica a los datos mensuales de los bancos comerciales de Indonesia antes y durante la pandemia de COVID-19 para evaluar la región de estabilidad de los parámetros del instrumento.Alternate :Bank Indonesia, the central bank of Indonesia, has made adjustment settings in a macroprudential policy instrument called macroprudential intermediation ratio (MIR) to boost loan growth in the context of national economic recovery due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, a dynamic model of bank loan with procyclicality behavior is developed, and it is equipped with the predecessor of the MIR instrument called loan-to-deposit ratio based reserve requirement (LDR-RR). We examine the effects of LDR-RR parameters on the dynamics of loan using the border collision bifurcation analysis to determine the threshold values of the LDR-RR parameters so that the stability of loan equilibrium can be maintained. This model is applied to monthly data of Indonesian commercial banks before and during the COVID-19 pandemic to assess the stability region of the instrument parameters.","PeriodicalId":264903,"journal":{"name":"Revista Electrónica de Comunicaciones y Trabajos de ASEPUMA","volume":"22 5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124528851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-31DOI: 10.24309/RECTA.2020.21.1.01
U. Carrascal
The Gini index is widely used in statistics for the study of equity in the distribution of a variable. However, its definition has several formulations and its use sometimes has hidden problems that can lead to incorrect conclusions. That is the reason why it is necessary to make some remarks this regard and even formulate some proposals to clarify some errors on its definition and use. We present an alternative to solve this error in one of the most popular formulas of the Gini index.
{"title":"The Gini index: A proposal for revision","authors":"U. Carrascal","doi":"10.24309/RECTA.2020.21.1.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24309/RECTA.2020.21.1.01","url":null,"abstract":"The Gini index is widely used in statistics for the study of equity in the distribution of a variable. However, its definition has several formulations and its use sometimes has hidden problems that can lead to incorrect conclusions. That is the reason why it is necessary to make some remarks this regard and even formulate some proposals to clarify some errors on its definition and use. We present an alternative to solve this error in one of the most popular formulas of the Gini index.","PeriodicalId":264903,"journal":{"name":"Revista Electrónica de Comunicaciones y Trabajos de ASEPUMA","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128946257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-31DOI: 10.24309/RECTA.2020.21.2.02
Juan F. Rendón, Alfredo Trespalacios, Diana Pacheco
The accurate comprehension of the risk drivers of different depository institutions is the key to their sustainable operation. In this paper, we analyze two stochastic approaches to model Non-Maturing Assets (NMAs) employing an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process that can be used for the evaluation of the liquidity and interest risk of savings accounts in banks. We detail the models’ specifications, parameters, and simulation results. Furthermore, we examine the regular patterns, throughout the year, of the behavior of the volume of deposits into saving accounts in Colombia, in line with the results of other researchers in different countries. Finally, we found that a trend term should be incorporated into the model to capture the growth of the series.
{"title":"The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to model the deposit volume of non-maturing assets in Colombia","authors":"Juan F. Rendón, Alfredo Trespalacios, Diana Pacheco","doi":"10.24309/RECTA.2020.21.2.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24309/RECTA.2020.21.2.02","url":null,"abstract":"The accurate comprehension of the risk drivers of different depository institutions is the key to their sustainable operation. In this paper, we analyze two stochastic approaches to model Non-Maturing Assets (NMAs) employing an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process that can be used for the evaluation of the liquidity and interest risk of savings accounts in banks. We detail the models’ specifications, parameters, and simulation results. Furthermore, we examine the regular patterns, throughout the year, of the behavior of the volume of deposits into saving accounts in Colombia, in line with the results of other researchers in different countries. Finally, we found that a trend term should be incorporated into the model to capture the growth of the series.","PeriodicalId":264903,"journal":{"name":"Revista Electrónica de Comunicaciones y Trabajos de ASEPUMA","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127516696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-31DOI: 10.24309/RECTA.2020.21.1.04
Verónica Arredondo, Miguel Martínez-Panero, Antonio Palomares, Teresa Peña, V. Ramírez
The number of representatives obtained by each political party in an electoral process must be a whole number. So, the percentage of votes for each party usually differs from the corresponding percentage of seats, forcing a certain unavoidable disproportionality. On the other hand, different elements of the electoral system (constituencies, thresholds, etc.) may produce some avoidable disproportionality. Those indexes traditionally used to analyse disproportionality take into account an unreachable exact proportionality as a reference. Instead, our more realistic approach quantifies distortions from a specific allotment, namely the seat distribution obtained when applying a proportional method to the total votes (that is, as if it were a unique constituency, without electoral thresholds or incentives to the winning party). Hence, we measure the avoidable disproportionality associated with such method. Unlike traditional indexes, we propose indexes associated with proportional allotment methods that can be zero in real situations. They are simple to calculate and allow us to decipher the number of seats assigned beyond the inevitable disproportionality which arises from the constraint of whole numbers. We are particularly interested in the indexes associated with Jefferson and Webster methods, which are compared to Gallagher, Loosemore-Hanby and Sainte-Laguë indexes for the results of 55 elections held in several countries.
{"title":"New indexes for measuring electoral disproportionality","authors":"Verónica Arredondo, Miguel Martínez-Panero, Antonio Palomares, Teresa Peña, V. Ramírez","doi":"10.24309/RECTA.2020.21.1.04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24309/RECTA.2020.21.1.04","url":null,"abstract":"The number of representatives obtained by each political party in an electoral process must be a whole number. So, the percentage of votes for each party usually differs from the corresponding percentage of seats, forcing a certain unavoidable disproportionality. On the other hand, different elements of the electoral system (constituencies, thresholds, etc.) may produce some avoidable disproportionality. Those indexes traditionally used to analyse disproportionality take into account an unreachable exact proportionality as a reference. Instead, our more realistic approach quantifies distortions from a specific allotment, namely the seat distribution obtained when applying a proportional method to the total votes (that is, as if it were a unique constituency, without electoral thresholds or incentives to the winning party). Hence, we measure the avoidable disproportionality associated with such method. Unlike traditional indexes, we propose indexes associated with proportional allotment methods that can be zero in real situations. They are simple to calculate and allow us to decipher the number of seats assigned beyond the inevitable disproportionality which arises from the constraint of whole numbers. We are particularly interested in the indexes associated with Jefferson and Webster methods, which are compared to Gallagher, Loosemore-Hanby and Sainte-Laguë indexes for the results of 55 elections held in several countries.","PeriodicalId":264903,"journal":{"name":"Revista Electrónica de Comunicaciones y Trabajos de ASEPUMA","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122068013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-31DOI: 10.24309/RECTA.2018.19.1.01
C. González-Concepción, M. C. Gil-Fariña, C. Pestano-Gabino
espanolEste articulo analiza la realidad ciclica de la macroeconomia espanola en base a tres variables relevantes y a lo largo del periodo temporal mas amplio que nos ha permitido la disponibilidad de datos: Precio del Petroleo (1946M1- 2015M9), Indice de Produccion Industrial (1993M2-2015M9) e Indice de Precios al Consumidor (1961M1-2015M9). El impacto que ejerce el precio del petroleo en la economia ha sido estudiado extensa e intensamente, aunque modelizar sus efectos no es una cuestion trivial. Nuestra contribucion se centra en la aplicacion de funciones wavelet tipo Morlet para identificar la presencia de ciclos inestables en base a los datos conocidos mediante la computacion de la Potencia Espectral Wavelet usando MATLAB. Adicionalmente, algunas tecnicas bivariantes son utiles para visualizar la relacion entre las tres variables consideradas. En concreto, la Coherencia Wavelet Cruzada a traves de las diferentes fases puede usarse para detectar sincronismos y posibles relaciones de causalidad segun bandas de frecuencia a lo largo del tiempo. Finalmente, los resultados obtenidos por otros autores para las economias de Estados Unidos y Alemania, en base a estas mismas variables y mismas tecnicas con funciones wavelets, nos permiten anadir algunas conclusiones comparativas. EnglishThis paper analyses the economic cycles in Spain over a long period of time according to available data by using three related variables: Oil Price (1946M1-2015M9), Industrial Production Index (1993M2-2015M9) and Consumer Price Index (1961M1-2015M9). The impact of shocks on oil price has been the subject of an extensive study, although modelling their effects is not a trivial undertaking. Our contribution focuses on applying the Morlet Wavelets to identify the presence of unstable cycles in data series by calculating the Wavelet Power Spectrum with the MATLAB software. Moreover, some bivariate techniques are applied to display the mutual influence of the Oil Price with the Industrial Production Index and the Consumer Price Index. The Cross Wavelet Coherency and the relationship among phases can also be used to detect co-movements and potential causality relationships in frequency bands over time. Finally, by studying these variables we can draw certain comparative conclusions with the US and German economies, whose corresponding variables have been considered by other authors using this same tool.
espanolEste跟进分析现实ciclica macroeconomia西班牙语的基于三个变量相关沿线临时期比我们得以广泛的数据:石油价格(1946M1 2015M9),工业(1993M2-2015M9)的指数和消费物价指数(1961M1-2015M9)。石油价格对经济的影响已经得到了广泛而深入的研究，尽管对其影响进行建模并非易事。我们的贡献集中在应用Morlet小波函数来识别不稳定循环的存在，基于已知的数据，使用MATLAB计算小波谱功率。此外，一些双变量技术有助于可视化三个变量之间的关系。具体来说，跨相位的小波相干可以用来检测时间和可能的因果关系，这取决于频带随时间的变化。最后，其他作者对美国和德国经济的结果，基于相同的变量和小波函数的相同技术，允许我们添加一些比较结论。本文利用三个相关变量:石油价格(1946M1-2015M9)、工业生产指数(1993M2-2015M9)和消费者价格指数(1961M1-2015M9)，根据现有数据分析了西班牙长期的经济周期。石油冲击对油价的影响一直是广泛研究的主题，但对其影响进行建模并非易事。= =地理= =根据美国人口普查，这个县的面积为，其中土地面积为，其中土地面积为。此外，还采用了一些双变量技术来显示石油价格与工业生产指数和消费者价格指数的相互影响。The Cross Wavelet Coherency and The relationship阶段中可以也应该用来干扰源co-movements及潜在的causality关系in frequency邪恶团伙over time。最后，通过研究这些变量，我们可以得出一些与美国和德国经济体的比较结论，这些经济体的相应变量已经被其他作者使用相同的工具考虑过。
{"title":"Identifying economic cycles in Spain using wavelet functions: oil price, industrial production and consumer price indices","authors":"C. González-Concepción, M. C. Gil-Fariña, C. Pestano-Gabino","doi":"10.24309/RECTA.2018.19.1.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24309/RECTA.2018.19.1.01","url":null,"abstract":"espanolEste articulo analiza la realidad ciclica de la macroeconomia espanola en base a tres variables relevantes y a lo largo del periodo temporal mas amplio que nos ha permitido la disponibilidad de datos: Precio del Petroleo (1946M1- 2015M9), Indice de Produccion Industrial (1993M2-2015M9) e Indice de Precios al Consumidor (1961M1-2015M9). El impacto que ejerce el precio del petroleo en la economia ha sido estudiado extensa e intensamente, aunque modelizar sus efectos no es una cuestion trivial. Nuestra contribucion se centra en la aplicacion de funciones wavelet tipo Morlet para identificar la presencia de ciclos inestables en base a los datos conocidos mediante la computacion de la Potencia Espectral Wavelet usando MATLAB. Adicionalmente, algunas tecnicas bivariantes son utiles para visualizar la relacion entre las tres variables consideradas. En concreto, la Coherencia Wavelet Cruzada a traves de las diferentes fases puede usarse para detectar sincronismos y posibles relaciones de causalidad segun bandas de frecuencia a lo largo del tiempo. Finalmente, los resultados obtenidos por otros autores para las economias de Estados Unidos y Alemania, en base a estas mismas variables y mismas tecnicas con funciones wavelets, nos permiten anadir algunas conclusiones comparativas. EnglishThis paper analyses the economic cycles in Spain over a long period of time according to available data by using three related variables: Oil Price (1946M1-2015M9), Industrial Production Index (1993M2-2015M9) and Consumer Price Index (1961M1-2015M9). The impact of shocks on oil price has been the subject of an extensive study, although modelling their effects is not a trivial undertaking. Our contribution focuses on applying the Morlet Wavelets to identify the presence of unstable cycles in data series by calculating the Wavelet Power Spectrum with the MATLAB software. Moreover, some bivariate techniques are applied to display the mutual influence of the Oil Price with the Industrial Production Index and the Consumer Price Index. The Cross Wavelet Coherency and the relationship among phases can also be used to detect co-movements and potential causality relationships in frequency bands over time. Finally, by studying these variables we can draw certain comparative conclusions with the US and German economies, whose corresponding variables have been considered by other authors using this same tool.","PeriodicalId":264903,"journal":{"name":"Revista Electrónica de Comunicaciones y Trabajos de ASEPUMA","volume":"79 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124875800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-31DOI: 10.24309/RECTA.2018.19.2.02
G. Izquierdo, A. M. Salcedo, Yolanda Gómez
{"title":"Enhancing the cooperation with data holders in official statistics: the case of Spain","authors":"G. Izquierdo, A. M. Salcedo, Yolanda Gómez","doi":"10.24309/RECTA.2018.19.2.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24309/RECTA.2018.19.2.02","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":264903,"journal":{"name":"Revista Electrónica de Comunicaciones y Trabajos de ASEPUMA","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115420530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-31DOI: 10.24309/RECTA.2018.19.2.04
Gonzalo Perez-Seoane, Carlos Quesada
{"title":"Data mining y análisis matemático de las cuotas de las casas de apuestas deportivas online","authors":"Gonzalo Perez-Seoane, Carlos Quesada","doi":"10.24309/RECTA.2018.19.2.04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24309/RECTA.2018.19.2.04","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":264903,"journal":{"name":"Revista Electrónica de Comunicaciones y Trabajos de ASEPUMA","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133282642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-31DOI: 10.24309/RECTA.2018.19.1.04
Antonio Roldán, R. Salmerón, C. García
espanolEste trabajo muestra que la regresion alzada puede considerarse como una metodologia apropiada para reducir la multicolinealidad aproximada que aparece de forma natural en los problemas de regresion lineal. Cuando se trata de tres variables explicativas, su aplicacion reduce el numero de condicion de la matriz asociada al conjunto de datos. Sin embargo, este procedimiento tiene un umbral: aunque las columnas de dicha matriz se pueden separar, se demuestra que el numero de condicion nunca sera menor que una constante que se puede obtener facilmente utilizando los elementos de la matriz inicial. Finalmente, la contribucion se ilustra a traves de un ejemplo empirico. EnglishThis manuscript shows that the raise regression can be considered as an appropriate methodology in order to reduce the approximate multicollinearity that naturally appears in problems of linear regression. When three explanatory variables are involved, its application reduces the condition number of the matrix associated to data set. Nevertheless, this procedure has a threshold: although the columns of X can be separated, it is proved that the condition number will never be less than a constant that can be easily worked out by using the elements of the initial matrix. Finally, the contribution is illustrated through an empirical example.
{"title":"About the limits of raise regression to reduce condition number when three explanatory variables are involved","authors":"Antonio Roldán, R. Salmerón, C. García","doi":"10.24309/RECTA.2018.19.1.04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24309/RECTA.2018.19.1.04","url":null,"abstract":"espanolEste trabajo muestra que la regresion alzada puede considerarse como una metodologia apropiada para reducir la multicolinealidad aproximada que aparece de forma natural en los problemas de regresion lineal. Cuando se trata de tres variables explicativas, su aplicacion reduce el numero de condicion de la matriz asociada al conjunto de datos. Sin embargo, este procedimiento tiene un umbral: aunque las columnas de dicha matriz se pueden separar, se demuestra que el numero de condicion nunca sera menor que una constante que se puede obtener facilmente utilizando los elementos de la matriz inicial. Finalmente, la contribucion se ilustra a traves de un ejemplo empirico. EnglishThis manuscript shows that the raise regression can be considered as an appropriate methodology in order to reduce the approximate multicollinearity that naturally appears in problems of linear regression. When three explanatory variables are involved, its application reduces the condition number of the matrix associated to data set. Nevertheless, this procedure has a threshold: although the columns of X can be separated, it is proved that the condition number will never be less than a constant that can be easily worked out by using the elements of the initial matrix. Finally, the contribution is illustrated through an empirical example.","PeriodicalId":264903,"journal":{"name":"Revista Electrónica de Comunicaciones y Trabajos de ASEPUMA","volume":"90 14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126032941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-31DOI: 10.24309/recta.2018.19.1.02
María José Pérez-Fructuoso, A. Alegre
This paper develops a financial-actuarial methodology to determine the financial-fiscal profitability an insured can obtain by contracting a deferred capital transaction. Since this transaction is conditioned on the insured's survival probability, it has a random return dependent on the probability distribution associated to the aforementioned survival. We define the expected return and, on the basis of the probability distribution of the current value of the product's benefit random variable, we obtain decision parameters that reflect the risk of the operation as well as its influence on the expected return. Our theoretical development will be carried out for single premiums under the assumption of pure premium and overcharged premium, and taking into consideration taxes and tax deductions. Finally, we propose an empirical analysis of the cases under our focus of attention, which will show the applicability of the results thus obtained, all for the purpose of providing the insured with the maximum information to make his or her decision within a random environment.
{"title":"Cálculo de la rentabilidad esperada y cuantificación del riesgo en una operación de ahorro de capital diferido a prima (pura y comercial) única","authors":"María José Pérez-Fructuoso, A. Alegre","doi":"10.24309/recta.2018.19.1.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24309/recta.2018.19.1.02","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a financial-actuarial methodology to determine the financial-fiscal profitability an insured can obtain by contracting a deferred capital transaction. Since this transaction is conditioned on the insured's survival probability, it has a random return dependent on the probability distribution associated to the aforementioned survival. We define the expected return and, on the basis of the probability distribution of the current value of the product's benefit random variable, we obtain decision parameters that reflect the risk of the operation as well as its influence on the expected return. Our theoretical development will be carried out for single premiums under the assumption of pure premium and overcharged premium, and taking into consideration taxes and tax deductions. Finally, we propose an empirical analysis of the cases under our focus of attention, which will show the applicability of the results thus obtained, all for the purpose of providing the insured with the maximum information to make his or her decision within a random environment.","PeriodicalId":264903,"journal":{"name":"Revista Electrónica de Comunicaciones y Trabajos de ASEPUMA","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116422885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-31DOI: 10.24309/RECTA.2018.19.2.05
Alicia Bellani, Leonardo Moreno, Sandra Zapata
espanolEl objetivo del estudio es aportar informaci´on para la toma de decisiones en el marco de politicas turisticas aplicadas a la gestion de destinos. Diversos mecanismos de segmentacion de mercado son aplicados de forma frecuente en el analisis de turismo y son utilizadas diferentes metodologias estadisticas segun el fin que se persigue. En este trabajo se aplica una tecnica de clasificacion no supervisada que tiene por objetivo determinar grupos de variables. Se hace enfasis en un criterio de poda de variables que determina un grupo de ruido y en la comparacion de dos metodologias diferentes en referencia al trato de las variables cualitativas. A partir de ellas se realiza una segmentacion de los cruceristas. En esta ultima etapa es novedosa la aplicacion de un criterio seleccion de variables que intenta emular los grupos obtenidos con las variables originales. Son analizados los resultados obtenidos en cada paso y se realiza una comparativa con clusteres determinados en temporadas anteriores. EnglishDiverse market segmentation mechanisms have been frequently applied in the tourism analysis and different statistical methodologies have been used according to the objective pursued. This study applies a segmentation technique that tries to determine groups of variables, based on their quadratic correlation for quantitative variables or based on the sum of correlation ratios for qualitative variables. In each of the clusters of variables, the subgroup of determinant variables are identified using a pruning technique which cancels the effect of unnecessary variables. From these set of determinant variables we conduct a cruise segmentation analysis using k-means. The results show the formation of four clusters in which the key variables are age, residence, travel party size and the port of visit. Then, we analyze the cluster expenditure type behavior, finding that shopping is the most important spending in all the groups. The study aims to provide information for decision making within the framework of tourism policies, in reference to each of the groups obtained.
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