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Choosing Investment Managers 选择投资经理
Pub Date : 2020-07-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3651476
Amit Goyal, Sunil Wahal, M. Yavuz
We study how plan sponsors choose investment management firms from their opportunity set when delegating $1.6 trillion in assets between 2002 and 2017. Two factors play an influential role in choice: pre-hiring returns, and pre-existing personal connections between personnel at the plan (or consultant advising the plan), and the investment management firm. Post-hiring returns for chosen firms are significantly lower than those for unchosen firms. The post-hiring returns of firms with relationships are, at best, indistinguishable from those without relationships, and often significantly worse. While relationships are conducive to asset gathering by investment managers, they do not appear to generate commensurate benefits for plan sponsors via higher gross returns or lower fees.
我们研究了计划发起人在2002年至2017年期间委托1.6万亿美元资产时,如何从他们的机会集中选择投资管理公司。有两个因素在选择中发挥着重要作用:聘用前的回报,以及该计划的员工(或为该计划提供咨询的顾问)与投资管理公司之间已有的个人关系。被选中的公司雇佣后的回报明显低于未被选中的公司。有关系的公司招聘后的回报,充其量与没有关系的公司没有区别,而且往往明显更差。虽然关系有利于投资经理收集资产,但它们似乎并没有通过提高总回报或降低费用为计划发起人带来相应的利益。
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引用次数: 4
Significant Hot Hand Effect in International Cricket 国际板球的显著热手效应
Pub Date : 2020-07-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3644211
Sumit Ram, Shyam Nandan, D. Sornette
We investigate the hot hand effect in the game of cricket by analyzing the complete recorded history of international cricket. We introduce an original temporal representation of performance streaks, which is suitable to be modelled as a self-exciting point process. We confirm the presence of hot hands across the players' careers. We show that the self-excitation patterns in performance clusters can be exploited for predicting future performances. This paper contributes to recent historiographical debates concerning the presence of hot hands in the sequence of successes in individual performances. The introduction of several metrics and methods can be useful to test and exploit the clustering of performance in the study of human behavior and the design of algorithms for predicting success.
我们通过分析完整的国际板球历史记录来研究板球比赛中的热手效应。我们引入了性能条纹的原始时间表示,它适合于建模为自激点过程。我们确认在球员的职业生涯中都存在热手现象。我们展示了性能集群中的自激励模式可以用于预测未来的性能。这篇论文有助于最近的史学辩论关于热手在个人表演的成功序列的存在。在人类行为研究和预测成功的算法设计中,引入一些度量和方法可以用于测试和开发性能聚类。
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引用次数: 2
COVID-19 and Its Initial Signaling Effects on the Stock Markets of India, Switzerland, Taiwan and Brazil - A Comparative Analysis of the Change in the Stock Market Indices during the Initial Period of Pandemic in the Respective Countries 2019冠状病毒病及其对印度、瑞士、台湾和巴西股市的初始信号效应——流行初期各国股市指数变化的比较分析
Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3920253
Jasmine Mehta, Paridhi Singhania
The world economies are highly integrated to each other. Events that occur in other economies has an impact on the stock market of a particular country. Many of the events act as financial signals and affects stock market. The purpose of this paper is to conceptualize the views and analysis of initial signaling effect of pandemic like COVID-19 on the stock markets of India, Switzerland, Taiwan and Brazil in the post pandemic declaration by World Health Organization. The number of COVID-19 reported cases during initial period of pandemic has been taken for analysis with the corresponding closing price of Sensex, Swiss Market Index (SMI), TAIEX, BOVESPA as the stock market data. The market Indices are affected due to a variety of factors, but the present study aims to find the impact of only one factor that is the pandemic caused by COVID-19 on the stock markets of India, Switzerland, Taiwan and Brazil, all other factor which would have also affected the indices are assumed to be constant. Correlation is used to test if the number of cases has any impact on the respective stock markets. This exploratory study shows a strong negative correlation between these variables which is statistically significant. Furthermore, we also try to show a comparative analysis of the aggregate change in the stock market indices during the initial period of pandemic in respective countries and try to infer that, among the four countries chosen by us, whose stock market index has been affected the most through comparing the aggregate change each country has had in its stock market indices.
世界经济高度融合。发生在其他经济体的事件会对一个特定国家的股票市场产生影响。许多事件作为金融信号并影响股票市场。本文的目的是概念化世界卫生组织在大流行后声明中对COVID-19等大流行对印度、瑞士、台湾和巴西股票市场的初始信号效应的观点和分析。以新冠肺炎大流行初期的报告病例数为例,以相应的Sensex指数、瑞士市场指数(SMI)、TAIEX指数、BOVESPA指数的收盘价为股市数据进行分析。市场指数受到多种因素的影响,但本研究的目的是发现只有一个因素的影响,即COVID-19引起的大流行对印度、瑞士、台湾和巴西的股票市场的影响,所有其他因素也会影响指数假设是恒定的。相关性用于检验案件的数量是否对各自的股票市场有任何影响。本探索性研究表明,这些变量之间存在很强的负相关关系,具有统计学意义。此外,我们还试图对各国股市指数在疫情初期的总体变化进行对比分析,并试图通过比较各国股市指数的总体变化来推断,在我们选择的四个国家中,哪个国家的股市指数受到的影响最大。
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引用次数: 0
Climate Risk Disclosure and Institutional Investors 气候风险披露与机构投资者
Pub Date : 2020-06-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3437178
Emirhan Ilhan, Philipp Krueger, Z. Sautner, L. Starks
Through a survey and analyses of observational data, we provide systematic evidence that institutional investors value and demand climate risk disclosures. The survey reveals the investors have a strong demand for climate risk disclosures, and many actively engage their portfolio firms for improvements. Empirical analyses of holdings data corroborate this evidence by showing a significantly positive association between climate-conscious institutional ownership and better firm-level climate risk disclosure. We establish further evidence of institutional investors’ influence on firms’ climate risk disclosures by examining a shock to the climate risk disclosure demand of French institutional investors (French Article 173).
通过对观测数据的调查和分析,我们提供了系统的证据,证明机构投资者重视并要求披露气候风险。调查显示,投资者强烈要求披露气候风险信息,许多投资者积极与投资组合公司合作,以改善气候风险。对持股数据的实证分析证实了这一证据,表明具有气候意识的机构持股与更好的公司层面气候风险披露之间存在显著的正相关关系。我们通过研究法国机构投资者对气候风险披露需求的冲击,进一步证明了机构投资者对公司气候风险披露的影响(法国第173条)。
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引用次数: 88
Optimal Risk-Sharing Across a Network of Insurance Companies 保险公司网络的最优风险分担
Pub Date : 2020-06-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3417016
Nicolas Ettlin, W. Farkas, Andre Kull, Alexander Smirnow
Abstract Risk transfer is a key risk and capital management tool for insurance companies. Transferring risk between insurers is used to mitigate risk and manage capital requirements. We investigate risk transfer in the context of a network environment of insurers and consider capital costs and capital constraints at the level of individual insurance companies. We demonstrate that the optimisation of profitability across the network can be achieved through risk transfer. Considering only individual insurance companies, there is no unique optimal solution and, a priori, it is not clear which solutions are fair. However, from a network perspective, we derive a unique fair solution in the sense of cooperative game theory. Implications for systemic risk are briefly discussed.
摘要风险转移是保险公司风险和资金管理的重要手段。在保险公司之间转移风险是用来降低风险和管理资本要求的。我们研究了保险公司网络环境下的风险转移,并考虑了单个保险公司层面的资本成本和资本约束。我们证明,整个网络的盈利能力优化可以通过风险转移来实现。仅考虑单个保险公司,不存在唯一的最优解决方案,而且,先验地,不清楚哪些解决方案是公平的。然而,从网络的角度出发,我们得到了合作博弈论意义上的唯一公平解。简要讨论了对系统风险的影响。
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引用次数: 5
Catch, Restrict, and Release: The Real Story of Bank Bailouts 捕捉、限制和释放:银行救助的真实故事
Pub Date : 2020-05-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3611480
Allen N. Berger, Simona Nistor, S. Ongena, S. Tsyplakov
Bank bailouts are not the "one-shot" events commonly described in the literature. These bailouts are instead dynamic processes in which regulators "catch" financially distressed banks; "restrict" their activities over time; and "release" the banks from restrictions at sufficiently healthy capital ratios. The "catch-restrict-release" approach is a global phenomenon, which we document using hand-collected data on capital injection and debt guarantee bailouts in the European Union (EU) over 2008-2014. We present a dynamic theoretical model of socially-optimizing regulators engaging in "catch-restrict-release" capital injection and debt guarantee bailouts, and empirically test model predictions. Observed EU bailouts are qualitatively consistent with optimizing behavior.
银行救助不是文献中通常描述的“一次性”事件。相反,这些纾困是监管机构“捕捉”财务困境银行的动态过程;随着时间的推移“限制”他们的活动;以足够健康的资本比率“释放”银行的限制。“捕获-限制-释放”方法是一种全球现象,我们使用2008-2014年欧盟(EU)资本注入和债务担保救助的手工收集数据对其进行了记录。我们提出了一个社会优化监管机构参与“捕获-限制-释放”注资和债务担保救助的动态理论模型,并对模型预测进行了实证检验。观察到的欧盟救助在质量上与优化行为是一致的。
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引用次数: 10
Human-Environment-Health and Reinforcement of Individual Resilience 人-环境-健康与个体弹性增强
Pub Date : 2020-04-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3580740
D. Sornette, P. Cauwels, E. Mearns, Ke Wu
The ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is stressing the world population, health care system and economies at a level not experienced since WWII or the last “Spanish flu” pandemic of 1918. This shock provides a real-life test of the resilience of human societies, challenging our understanding and level of preparation. We suggest that a decay of global individual health resilience, due to cumulative multi-factor pollutions and modern ways of life, has made the whole population strongly susceptible to the Covid 19 pandemic. To ensure future resilient societies, we propose to prioritize economic development fostering depollution of the ecosystem and of individuals, and training individual responsibility.
正在进行的SARS-CoV-2大流行对世界人口、卫生保健系统和经济造成的压力是自第二次世界大战或1918年上一次“西班牙流感”大流行以来从未经历过的。这次冲击是对人类社会复原力的现实考验,挑战了我们的理解和准备水平。我们认为,由于累积的多因素污染和现代生活方式,全球个人健康复原力的衰退使整个人口非常容易受到Covid - 19大流行的影响。为了确保未来的复原社会,我们建议优先考虑促进生态系统和个人污染的经济发展,并培养个人责任。
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引用次数: 0
The Prediction for the Outbreak of COVID-19 for 15 States in USA by Using Turning Phase Concepts as of April 10, 2020 截至2020年4月10日,利用转向阶段概念预测美国15个州的COVID-19疫情
Pub Date : 2020-04-10 DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.13.20064048
George Xianzhi Yuan, Lan Di, Y. Gu, G. Qian, X. Qian
Based on a new concept called Turning Period,the goal of this report is to show how we can conduct the prediction for the outlook in the different stages for the battle with outbreak of COVID-19 currently in US, in particular, to identify when each of top 15 states in USA (basically on their populations) is going to enter into the stage that the outbreak of COVID-19 is under the control by the criteria such as daily change of new patients is less than 10% smoothly. Indeed, based on the data of April 10, 2020 with the numerical analysis, we are able to classify 15 states of US into the following four different categories for the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases Today and the main conclusion are: First, staring around April 14, 20202, three states which are Washington State, Louisiana and Indiana are entering the stage that the outbreak of COVID-19 is under the control, which means daily change of new patients is less than 10% and the gamma is less than zero in general. Second, staring around April 15, 20202, two states which are New Jersey, and New York are entering the stage that the outbreak of COVID-19 is under the control, which means daily change of new patients is less than 10% and the gamma is less than zero in general. Third, staring around April 16, 20202, seven states which are California, Florida, Georgia (GA), Illinois, Maryland, Indiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are entering the stage that the outbreak of COVID-19 is under the control, which means daily change of new patients is less than 10% and the gamma is less than zero in general. Fourth, staring around April 17, 20202, three states which are Texas, Massachusetts, and Connecticut are entering the stage that the outbreak of COVID-19 is under the control, which means daily change of new patients is less than 10% and the gamma is less than zero in general. Finally, we want to reinforce that emergency risk management is always associated with the implementation of an emergency plan. The identification of the Turning Time Period is key to emergency planning as it provides a timeline for effective actions and solutions to combat a pandemic by reducing as much unexpected risk as soon as possible.
基于一个新的概念叫做转折时期,这份报告的目的是展示如何进行前景预测在不同阶段与爆发COVID-19目前在美国,特别是确定当每个顶级美国15个州的人口(基本上)将进入爆发阶段,COVID-19由标准控制等新病人的日常变化小于10%顺利。事实上,根据2020年4月10日的数据和数值分析,我们能够将美国15个州分为以下四个不同的类别,以预防和控制今天的传染病,主要结论是:首先,从2020年4月14日左右开始,华盛顿州、路易斯安那州和印第安纳州三个州进入疫情得到控制的阶段,即新增病例日变化量小于10%,伽玛值总体小于零。第二,从2020年4月15日左右开始,新泽西州和纽约州这两个州进入疫情得到控制的阶段,这意味着每天新增患者的变化小于10%,伽玛值总体小于零。第三,从2020年4月16日左右开始,美国加利福尼亚州、佛罗里达州、佐治亚州、伊利诺伊州、马里兰州、印第安纳州、密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州等7个州进入疫情得到控制的阶段,即新增病例日变化量小于10%,伽玛值总体小于零。第四,从2020年4月17日左右开始,德克萨斯州、马萨诸塞州和康涅狄格州三个州进入疫情得到控制的阶段,即新增病例日变化量小于10%,伽玛值总体小于零。最后,我们要强调的是,应急风险管理始终与应急计划的实施相关联。确定转折期是应急规划的关键,因为它为采取有效行动和解决办法、尽快减少尽可能多的意外风险、抗击大流行病提供了时间表。
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引用次数: 2
Behavioral Equilibrium and Evolutionary Dynamics in Asset Markets 资产市场的行为均衡和进化动力学
Pub Date : 2020-04-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3571162
I. Evstigneev, T. Hens, V. Potapova, K. Schenk-Hoppé
Abstract This paper analyzes a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model of an asset market based on behavioral and evolutionary principles. The core of the model is a non-traditional game-theoretic framework combining elements of stochastic dynamic games and evolutionary game theory. Its key characteristic feature is that it relies only on objectively observable market data and does not use hidden individual agents’ characteristics (such as their utilities and beliefs). A central goal of the study is to identify an investment strategy that allows an investor to survive in the market selection process, i.e., to keep with probability one a strictly positive, bounded away from zero share of market wealth over an infinite time horizon, irrespective of the strategies used by the other players. The main results show that under very general assumptions, such a strategy exists, is asymptotically unique and easily computable.
摘要基于行为原理和进化原理,分析了资产市场的动态随机均衡模型。该模型的核心是一个结合随机动态博弈和进化博弈元素的非传统博弈论框架。它的关键特征是,它只依赖于客观可观察的市场数据,而不使用隐藏的个体代理人的特征(例如他们的效用和信念)。本研究的一个中心目标是确定一种投资策略,使投资者能够在市场选择过程中生存下来,即在无限的时间范围内保持概率1为严格的正,远离市场财富的零份额,而不考虑其他参与者使用的策略。主要结果表明,在非常一般的假设下,这种策略是存在的,是渐近唯一的,并且易于计算的。
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引用次数: 10
Multidimensional Effects of Central Clearing on CDS Market Liquidity and Their Economic Channels – A Regression Discontinuity Approach 中央清算对CDS市场流动性的多维效应及其经济渠道——一个不连续回归方法
Pub Date : 2020-03-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3561116
G. Schoenemann
In this study, I analyze the effect of central clearing on market liquidity in the CDS market. This study extends existing literature by using semi-parametric and non-parametric regression discontinuity designs (RDD) in order to isolate the effect of central clearing on measures of market tightness, market depth and market resiliency. I find evidence for a decrease in absolute bid-ask spreads with the beginning of central clearing and an increase in gross trading volume. Bid-ask spread resiliency decreases with the beginning of central clearing. These effect differ across contracts depending on their fundamental risk and liquidity risk. I show that counterparty risk and inventory costs may partly explain the effects of central clearing on CDS market liquidity. Especially the lower relevance of counterparty risk and lower regulatory capital charges seem to affect positively dealer competition and risk-taking capacity in the CDS market.
在本研究中,我分析了中央清算对CDS市场流动性的影响。本研究通过使用半参数和非参数回归不连续设计(RDD)来扩展现有文献,以分离中央出清对市场紧张度、市场深度和市场弹性措施的影响。我发现有证据表明,随着中央清算的开始,绝对买卖价差下降,总交易量增加。买卖价差弹性随着中央结算的开始而下降。这些影响因合约的基本风险和流动性风险而异。我表明,交易对手风险和库存成本可以部分解释中央清算对CDS市场流动性的影响。尤其是交易对手风险的低相关性和较低的监管资本费用似乎对CDS市场中的交易商竞争和风险承担能力产生了积极影响。
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引用次数: 0
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Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series
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