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Tax News Shocks and Consumption 税收新闻、冲击和消费
Pub Date : 2018-08-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2746486
Lorenz Kueng
How predictable are personal income tax rates in the U.S., and does household spending respond to news about future taxes even before the rates change? To answer these questions, this paper uses novel historical high-frequency data of tax-exempt municipal bonds and develops a model of the term structure of municipal yield spreads to taxable bonds as a function of future top income tax rates and a risk premium. Testing the model using the presidential elections of 1980, 1992 and 2000 shows that financial markets forecast future tax reforms remarkably well in both the short and long run. Combining these market-based tax expectations or "tax news shocks'' with data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey shows strong evidence of anticipation effects to future tax changes among higher-income consumers, well before the tax rates change. Consumer spending changes about one-for-one with changes in expected lifetime tax liabilities. These findings imply that ignoring anticipation effects can substantially bias estimates of the total effect of a tax change.
美国个人所得税率的可预见性如何?即使在税率变化之前,家庭支出是否会对未来税收的消息做出反应?为了回答这些问题,本文使用免税市政债券的新历史高频数据,并建立了市政债券收益率与应税债券息差的期限结构模型,该模型是未来最高所得税率和风险溢价的函数。用1980年、1992年和2000年的总统选举来测试这个模型,结果表明,金融市场在短期和长期都能很好地预测未来的税收改革。将这些基于市场的税收预期或“税收新闻冲击”与消费者支出调查的数据结合起来,就能有力地证明,在税率变化之前,高收入消费者对未来税收变化的预期影响。消费者支出的变化与预期终身纳税义务的变化大致成正比。这些发现表明,忽略预期效应会大大影响对税收变化总效应的估计。
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引用次数: 5
Influence of Credit Risk Measurement on Lending Performance of Commercial Banks in Nairobi County, Kenya 信用风险度量对肯尼亚内罗毕商业银行贷款绩效的影响
Pub Date : 2018-08-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3234291
John Karanja, J. Bichanga, G. Kingoriah
The credit risk measurement has affected significantly the lending performance of the commercial banks not only in Kenya but also in east Africa and has led to financial crises and poor lending performance. There has been a dramatic loss in the banking industry and suddenly announced large losses due to credit exposures that turned sour. The general objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of credit risk measurement on the lending performance of commercial banks in Nairobi County, Kenya. This study used descriptive survey research design and the target population for this study was at two levels. The target population was employees of the 42 commercial banks in operation in Kenya and the sample consisted of credit managers and other bankers where purposive sampling was used to pick 42 credit managers and simple random sampling was used to select the other 301 respondents. Data was collected using questionnaires and analyzed using descriptive statistics and logistic regression analysis (binary) was used. The results of the study revealed that credit risks measurements influenced bank lending performance positively. The study concluded that credit risk measurement activities significantly influence the lending performance of commercial banks and as a result the operating capital of commercial banks have gone down. The study recommended that Kenya government through the National Treasury and in collaboration with CBK and KBA should develop policies that will help the commercial banks optimize of credit risks measurement and improve the lending performance which is currently affected to great extent.
信用风险度量对肯尼亚乃至东非商业银行的贷款绩效都产生了重大影响,并导致金融危机和贷款绩效不佳。银行业出现了巨大的亏损,由于信贷风险敞口出现问题,银行突然宣布出现巨额亏损。本研究的总体目的是评估信用风险测量对肯尼亚内罗毕县商业银行贷款绩效的影响。本研究采用描述性调查研究设计,研究对象分为两个层次。目标人群是在肯尼亚运营的42家商业银行的员工,样本包括信贷经理和其他银行家,其中有目的的抽样被用来挑选42名信贷经理,简单的随机抽样被用来选择其他301名受访者。资料收集采用问卷调查,分析采用描述性统计和logistic回归分析(二元)。研究结果表明,信用风险度量对银行贷款绩效有积极影响。研究发现,信用风险度量活动显著影响商业银行的贷款绩效,导致商业银行的营运资本下降。该研究建议肯尼亚政府通过国家财政部,并与CBK和KBA合作制定政策,帮助商业银行优化信贷风险衡量,改善目前受到很大影响的贷款绩效。
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引用次数: 0
Paths to Convergence: Stock Price Adjustment After the Trump Election Shock 趋同之路:特朗普选举冲击后的股价调整
Pub Date : 2018-07-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3037023
A. Wagner, R. Zeckhauser, Alexandre Ziegler
How do market prices adjust towards stability after a shock? Tracking individual stock prices following their dramatic shakeup after Donald Trump’s surprise election provides an answer. Prices moved overwhelmingly in the appropriate direction on the first post-election day, albeit much too little. Relative prices needed several daily iterations to converge. Three days of historically strong cross-sectional momentum were followed by a brief reversal. Prices then settled. Firm characteristics that explained first-day returns, such as corporate taxes and foreign revenues, accounted for most of the observed momentum. These findings support prominent theories of slow but predictable diffusion of information into prices.
市场价格如何在震荡后趋于稳定?追踪唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)意外当选后股价大幅震荡的个股价格可以提供答案。在大选后的第一天,价格压倒性地朝着适当的方向移动,尽管幅度太小。相对价格需要每天多次迭代才能趋于一致。三天的历史性强劲横盘势头之后出现了短暂的逆转。价格随后稳定下来。解释首日收益的公司特征,如公司税和外国收入,是观察到的动量的主要原因。这些发现支持了信息在价格中缓慢但可预测的扩散的著名理论。
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引用次数: 3
An Assessment of the Elements of Yields and or Returns on Finance Lease Arrangements 融资租赁安排的收益及/或回报要素评估
Pub Date : 2018-06-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3205819
Frederick Anning
Assessment of commercial lease arrangements has developed theoretically than empirically at a quite faster pace. The main disparity regarding the pace it has moved so far has been by virtue of the theoretical development whereas the evidence base is hardly explained due to inaccessible large sized database composed of commercial leasing arrangements. Because of this there has been limited empirical studies on the subject matter. Further preliminary studies have more sophisticated and or advanced insight which thus report descriptive features of the samples as against an assessment of their reliability in respect of data and theory.
商业租赁安排的评估在理论上比在经验上发展得快得多。迄今为止,其进展速度的主要差异是由于理论发展,而证据基础很难解释,因为无法访问由商业租赁安排组成的大型数据库。因此,对这一主题的实证研究有限。进一步的初步研究具有更复杂和/或更先进的洞察力,从而报告样本的描述性特征,而不是评估其在数据和理论方面的可靠性。
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引用次数: 0
Excess Sensitivity of High-Income Consumers 高收入消费者的过度敏感
Pub Date : 2018-05-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2627893
Lorenz Kueng
Using new transaction data, I find considerable deviations from consumption smoothing in response to large, regular, predetermined, and salient payments from the Alaska Permanent Fund. On average, the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is 25% for nondurables and services within one quarter of the payments. The MPC is heterogeneous, monotonically increasing with income, and the average is largely driven by high-income households with substantial amounts of liquid assets, who have MPCs above 50%. The account-level data and the properties of the payments rule out most previous explanations of excess sensitivity, including buffer stock models and rational inattention. How big are these "mistakes"? Using a sufficient statistics approach, I show that the welfare loss from excess sensitivity depends on the MPC and the relative payment size as a fraction of income. Since the lump-sum payments do not depend on income, the two statistics are negatively correlated such that the welfare losses are similar across households and small (less than 0.1% of wealth), despite the large MPCs.
使用新的交易数据,我发现对于阿拉斯加永久基金(Alaska Permanent Fund)的大额、定期、预定和突出付款,消费平滑有相当大的偏差。平均而言,在四分之一的付款期内,非耐用品和服务的边际消费倾向(MPC)为25%。MPC是异质的,随着收入单调增加,平均水平主要由拥有大量流动资产的高收入家庭驱动,他们的MPC高于50%。账户层面的数据和支付的性质排除了之前大多数对过度敏感性的解释,包括缓冲库存模型和理性忽视。这些“错误”有多大?使用充分的统计方法,我表明,过度敏感性造成的福利损失取决于MPC和相对支付规模占收入的一部分。由于一次性支付不依赖于收入,这两个统计数据是负相关的,因此尽管mpc很大,但家庭和小家庭(不到财富的0.1%)的福利损失是相似的。
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引用次数: 2
The Sovereign Debt Crisis: Rebalancing or Freezes? 主权债务危机:再平衡还是冻结?
Pub Date : 2018-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3060504
P. Östberg, T. Richter
Using high-frequency data we document that episodes of market turmoil in the European sovereign bond market are on average associated with large decreases in trading volume. The response of trading volume to market stress is conditional on transaction costs. Low transaction cost turmoil episodes are associated with volume increases (investors rebalance), while high transaction cost turmoil periods are associated with abnormally low volume (market freezes). We find suggestive evidence of market freezes in response to shocks to the risk bearing capacity of market makers while investor rebalancing is triggered by wealth shocks. Overall, our results show that the recent sovereign debt crisis was not associated with large-scale investor rebalancing.
使用高频数据,我们证明了欧洲主权债券市场的市场动荡事件平均与交易量的大幅下降有关。交易量对市场压力的反应取决于交易成本。低交易成本动荡时期与交易量增加(投资者再平衡)有关,而高交易成本动荡时期与异常低交易量(市场冻结)有关。我们发现市场冻结是对做市商风险承受能力冲击的反应,而投资者再平衡是由财富冲击引发的。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,最近的主权债务危机与大规模投资者再平衡无关。
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引用次数: 1
Calculating Data Loss for Time-Series Data 计算时间序列数据的数据丢失
Pub Date : 2018-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3230502
Dimitri Bianco
Data transformations are commonly used across statistics to transform data distributions into distributions with properties that make them more user friendly. In time-series, stationarity is one of the most common assumptions that is violated because the mean and variance are time dependent. Dick and Fuller (1979) have proven that differencing data can make data stationary. It is also common to try to make data stationary through taking the natural log or using the growth rates of the data instead of the original non-stationary data. There is concern that transforming the data through differencing loses valuable information. This paper purposes a method for measuring data lost from these three types of transformations.
数据转换通常用于跨统计数据将数据分布转换为具有用户更友好属性的分布。在时间序列中,平稳性是最常被违反的假设之一,因为平均值和方差是时间相关的。Dick和Fuller(1979)证明了差异数据可以使数据平稳。试图通过取自然对数或使用数据的增长率来代替原始非平稳数据来使数据平稳也很常见。有人担心,通过差异转换数据会丢失有价值的信息。本文提出了一种测量这三种转换所造成的数据损失的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Decentralized Exchange 分散的交换
Pub Date : 2018-03-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3146828
S. Malamud, M. Rostek
Most assets are traded in multiple interconnected trading venues. This paper develops an equilibrium model of decentralized markets that accommodates general market structures with coexisting exchanges. Decentralized markets can allocate risk among traders with different risk preferences more efficiently, thus realizing gains from trade that cannot be reproduced in centralized markets. Market decentralization always increases price impact. Yet, markets in which assets are traded in multiple exchanges, whether they are disjoint or intermediated, can give higher welfare than the centralized market with the same traders and assets. In decentralized markets, demand substitutability across assets is endogenous and heterogeneous among traders.
大多数资产在多个相互关联的交易场所进行交易。本文建立了一个分散市场的均衡模型,该模型可以容纳具有共存交换的一般市场结构。分散的市场可以更有效地将风险分配给具有不同风险偏好的交易者,从而实现集中市场无法复制的交易收益。市场分散化总是会增加价格影响。然而,资产在多个交易所交易的市场,无论它们是分离的还是中介的,都能比拥有相同交易者和资产的集中市场提供更高的福利。在分散的市场中,不同资产之间的需求可替代性是内生的,交易者之间是异质的。
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引用次数: 117
Making no-arbitrage discounting-invariant: a new FTAP beyond NFLVR and NUPBR 使无套利贴现不变:超越NFLVR和NUPBR的新FTAP
Pub Date : 2018-03-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3676499
D. Bálint, M. Schweizer
In general multi-asset models of financial markets, the classic no-arbitrage concepts NFLVR and NUPBR have a serious shortcoming — they depend crucially on the way prices are discounted. To avoid this unnatural economic behaviour, we introduce a new idea for defining “absence of arbitrage”. It rests on the new notion of strongly index weight maximal strategies, which allows us to generalise both NFLVR (by dynamic index weight efficiency) and NUPBR (by dynamic index weight viability). These new no-arbitrage concepts do not change when we look at discounted or undiscounted prices, and they can be used in open-ended models under very weak assumptions on asset prices. We establish corresponding versions of the FTAP, i.e., dual characterisations of our concepts in terms of martingale properties. A key new feature is that as one expects, “properly anticipated prices fluctuate randomly”, but with an endogenous discounting process which is not a priori chosen exogenously. We also illustrate our results by a wide range of examples. In particular, we show that the classic Black–Scholes model on [0,1) is arbitrage-free in our sense if and only if its parameters satisfy m−r e {0, σ²} or, equivalently, either bond-discounted or stock-discounted prices are martingales.
在金融市场的一般多资产模型中,经典的无套利概念NFLVR和NUPBR有一个严重的缺点——它们严重依赖于价格的贴现方式。为了避免这种不自然的经济行为,我们引入了一个定义“无套利”的新概念。它依赖于强指标权重最大化策略的新概念,这使我们能够推广NFLVR(通过动态指标权重效率)和NUPBR(通过动态指标权重可行性)。当我们观察贴现或未贴现价格时,这些新的无套利概念不会改变,它们可以在对资产价格非常弱的假设下用于开放式模型。我们建立了FTAP的相应版本,即我们的概念在鞅性质方面的双重特征。一个关键的新特征是,正如人们所预期的那样,“适当预期的价格随机波动”,但具有内生的贴现过程,而不是先天选择的外生过程。我们还通过广泛的例子来说明我们的结果。特别地,我们证明了[0,1)上的经典Black-Scholes模型在我们的意义上是无套利的,当且仅当它的参数满足m - re {0, σ²},或者,等价地,债券折现价格或股票折现价格是鞅。
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引用次数: 7
Risk Measures Based on Benchmark Loss Distributions 基于基准损失分布的风险度量
Pub Date : 2018-03-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3088423
V. Bignozzi, Matteo Burzoni, Cosimo Munari
We introduce a class of quantile-based risk measures that generalize Value at Risk (VaR) and, likewise Expected Shortfall (ES), take into account both the frequency and the severity of losses. Under VaR a single confidence level is assigned regardless of the size of potential losses. We allow for a range of confidence levels that depend on the loss magnitude. The key ingredient is a benchmark loss distribution (BLD), i.e.~a function that associates to each potential loss a maximal acceptable probability of occurrence. The corresponding risk measure, called Loss VaR (LVaR), determines the minimal capital injection that is required to align the loss distribution of a risky position to the target BLD. By design, one has full flexibility in the choice of the BLD profile and, therefore, in the range of relevant quantiles. Special attention is given to piecewise constant functions and to tail distributions of benchmark random losses, in which case the acceptability condition imposed by the BLD boils down to first-order stochastic dominance. We provide a comprehensive study of the main finance theoretical and statistical properties of LVaR with a focus on their comparison with VaR and ES. Merits and drawbacks are discussed and applications to capital adequacy, portfolio risk management and catastrophic risk are presented.
我们引入了一类基于分位数的风险度量,它概括了风险价值(VaR),同样也考虑了损失的频率和严重程度。在风险价值下,无论潜在损失的大小,都分配一个单一的置信水平。我们允许根据损失幅度确定一系列置信水平。关键因素是基准损失分布(BLD),即一个函数,它将每个潜在损失与发生的最大可接受概率联系起来。相应的风险度量称为损失VaR (LVaR),它决定了将风险头寸的损失分配与目标BLD保持一致所需的最小资本注入。通过设计,人们在BLD配置文件的选择上具有充分的灵活性,因此,在相关分位数的范围内。特别注意了分段常数函数和基准随机损失的尾部分布,在这种情况下,BLD的可接受条件归结为一阶随机优势。我们对LVaR的主要金融理论和统计特性进行了全面的研究,重点是与VaR和ES的比较。讨论了其优缺点,并介绍了在资本充足率、投资组合风险管理和巨灾风险管理中的应用。
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引用次数: 19
期刊
Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series
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