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The Balassa-Samuelson Effect and the Channels of its Absorption in the Central and Eastern European Countries 中东欧国家的巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应及其吸收渠道
Pub Date : 2013-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2361415
Karolina Konopczak
The aim of the study is to estimate the magnitude of the Balassa-Samuleson effect as well as the effectiveness of the labour and the product market in its absorption in Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia. The obtained results allowed to determine the magnitude of the systematic component of inflation differentials relative to the euro area, hence to assess the risk of common monetary policy inadequacy with respect to these economies. The obtained estimates suggest that the catching-up driven inflationary pressure is a non-negligible issue in the context of the CEECs integration with the euro area, since the systematic inflation differentials were comparable in size to those experienced by the so-called peripheral member states in the first decade after the introduction of the euro. Moreover, in the case of Poland none of the potential absorption mechanisms of the Balassa-Samuelson effect seemed to mitigate the convergence-induced inflationary pressure over the sample period. The outcomes suggest that ignoring the non-fulfilment of theoretical model assumptions regarding wages and markups, which is common in the literature, distorts estimation results.
这项研究的目的是估计Balassa-Samuleson效应的大小,以及波兰、捷克共和国、匈牙利和斯洛伐克的劳动力和产品市场吸收这种效应的有效性。获得的结果可以确定相对于欧元区的通货膨胀差异的系统组成部分的大小,从而评估这些经济体共同货币政策不足的风险。所获得的估计表明,在中东欧国家与欧元区一体化的背景下,追赶驱动的通胀压力是一个不可忽视的问题,因为系统性通胀差异在规模上与引入欧元后的第一个十年中所谓的外围成员国所经历的差异相当。此外,就波兰而言,巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应的潜在吸收机制似乎都没有减轻抽样期间趋同引起的通货膨胀压力。结果表明,忽略关于工资和加价的理论模型假设的不实现(这在文献中很常见)会扭曲估计结果。
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引用次数: 10
Sweet and Lowdown: A Resolvency Process and the Eurozone’s Crisis Management Framework 甜蜜与低调:清算过程与欧元区危机管理框架
Pub Date : 2013-09-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2330423
C. Paulus, Ignacio Tirado
The massive crisis lingering in the Eurozone for almost 4 years now has been confronted by an enhanced integration of fiscal policies and regulations, an increase in the control mechanisms by EU institutions, and by the creation of ex post crisis management instruments to deal with the severe financial trouble of the sovereigns. These ex-post instruments, embodied in the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and regulated in its Treaty of creation (TESM), constitute a limited solution to the problems posed by the distress of the Eurozone countries. It is the present article’s purpose to examine to which degree, if at all, this mechanism is reconcilable with a more ambitious approach, that includes a more elaborated and structured procedure: the Resolvency Model. Accordingly, we begin by contextualizing the current institutional setting of the Eurozone´s Crisis Management Framework and briefly summarizing the main characteristics of the ESM. Once the description of the current situation shows us where we stand, we purport to explain the Resolvency model in some detail. In this context, we will try to spot the parallelisms and differences between the two approaches in order to examine if there are possibilities to reconcile the two of them. The task is carried out not as a mere intellectual exercise but with an eye on the practical feasibility – in particular with respect to an amalgamation of the two approaches. We believe that the ESM and the Resolvency system are complementary in an important number of tasks and competences. However, we do not consider the current ESM model, as a stand-alone solution, to be fully adequate. We conclude that many of the ESM’s shortcomings would be solved by the introduction of the Resolvency model. One of the main problems of the current ESM system is its excessive exposure to political influence. Be it by means of the adoption of a Resolvency model, or by any other set of amendments, the ESM ought to be transformed into a technical instrument to enhance the efficient development of the Eurozone as a whole, stripped of political influence and the individual interest of countries.
欧元区持续了近4年的大规模危机,现在已经得到了财政政策和法规一体化的加强,欧盟机构控制机制的增加,以及危机后管理工具的创建,以应对主权国家严重的金融问题。这些事后工具体现在欧洲稳定机制(ESM)中,并在其创建条约(TESM)中加以规范,是解决欧元区国家困境所造成问题的有限办法。本文的目的是研究这种机制在多大程度上与一种更雄心勃勃的方法相协调,其中包括一种更详细和结构化的程序:偿债模型。因此,我们首先将欧元区危机管理框架的当前制度背景置于背景下,并简要总结ESM的主要特征。一旦对当前情况的描述表明了我们的立场,我们就打算详细解释偿债能力模型。在这种情况下,我们将尝试找出这两种方法之间的相似之处和差异,以便检查是否有可能调和这两种方法。这项任务不仅仅是一项智力练习,而是着眼于实际的可行性- -特别是关于两种方法的合并。我们认为,欧洲稳定机制和清算机制在许多重要的任务和能力方面是相辅相成的。然而,我们不认为当前的ESM模型作为一个独立的解决方案是完全足够的。我们的结论是,ESM的许多缺陷将通过引入偿债能力模型得到解决。当前ESM体系的主要问题之一是它过度暴露于政治影响之下。无论是通过采用偿债能力模型,还是通过其他任何一套修正案,ESM都应该转变为一种技术工具,以增强欧元区整体的有效发展,剥离政治影响和各国的个别利益。
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引用次数: 9
Monetary Regimes and Share Price Volatility in East Asia 东亚货币制度与股价波动
Pub Date : 2012-09-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2208641
Yu-Ning Hwang, P. McNelis
This paper applies counter-factual simulation experiments based on a calibrated DSGE model of a small open-economy. We compare the alternative monetary regimes of East Asia: the monetary targeting framework of the Central Bank of the Republic of China, the fixed-rate system practiced in Hong Kong, the Taylor rule used in Korea, and the exchange-rate management policy used in Singapore. The welfare differences are minimal, but the monetary rule of Taiwan delivers significantly lower share market volatility for a variety of shocks.
本文采用基于一个小型开放经济体的校准DSGE模型的反事实模拟实验。我们比较了东亚的其他货币制度:中华民国中央银行的货币目标制框架,香港实行的固定利率制度,韩国使用的泰勒规则,以及新加坡使用的汇率管理政策。福利差异很小,但台湾的货币规则为各种冲击提供了显著较低的股票市场波动性。
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引用次数: 0
Le Choc de la Nouvelle? Maastricht, Déjà Vu and EMU Reform (The Shock of the 'New': Maastricht, Path-Dependency and EMU Reform) 这个消息令人震惊吗?《马斯特里赫特、路径依赖和欧洲货币联盟改革》(The Shock of The new: Maastricht,路径依赖和欧洲货币联盟改革)
Pub Date : 2012-09-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2157129
Kevin Featherstone
This paper explores the extent to which current reforms of the euro-zone’s governance remain encased in the constraints of the Maastricht Treaty - the narrowness of its underlying paradigm; the gaps and imbalances of its design – and the implications for the future of the euro. With a model of ‘sound money, sound finances’, based on the precepts of German ordo-liberalism, a vulnerability was exposed: it lacked the instruments, not only to aid, but also to police. This was exacerbated by the shallowness of public legitimation, ignored from the outset. The uncertainty, delays and division displayed by the euro-zone’s response to the crisis owed much to the ‘lock-in’ of Maastricht. The paper includes a critical reassessment of Dyson and Featherstone (1999).
本文探讨了当前欧元区治理改革在多大程度上仍受制于《马斯特里赫特条约》(Maastricht Treaty)的约束——其基本范式的狭隘性;其设计上的差距和失衡——以及对欧元未来的影响。建立在德国自由主义戒律基础上的“稳健货币,稳健金融”模式暴露出了一个弱点:它不仅缺乏援助工具,而且缺乏监管工具。从一开始就被忽视的公众合法性的浅薄加剧了这种情况。欧元区对危机的反应所表现出的不确定性、拖延和分歧,在很大程度上要归功于《马斯特里赫特条约》的“锁定”。本文包括对戴森和费瑟斯通(1999)的重要重新评估。
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引用次数: 13
The Euroization of Lithuania and Poland: A Comparison 立陶宛与波兰的欧共化:比较
Pub Date : 2012-03-01 DOI: 10.15388/EKON.2012.0.888
J. Czaja, A. Dulkys
Usually, euroization is connected with the necessity of passing through not easy to fulfil and to maintain the Maastricht Treaty criteria and to accept (a) priori a definite course of resigning from the national currency. Upon fulfilling the required adjustment periods of euro adoption, the European law forces a total departure from the national currency. This process is subjected to a solid supervision and control of the EU organs. Additionally, the Maastricht Treaty obliges to introduce the euro when a country is in a good economic condition, confirmed by the fulfilment of nominal convergence criteria. In such a situation, the common currency adoption must be (or should be) always interpreted as a proof of a stable economic development and abilities of keeping such parameters in the future. However, in case of euroization accomplished with omission (or even with infringing) the Treaty, there is no necessity of complementing any European law duties, and especially there is no obligation of totally resigning the national currency. Such kind of euro adoption means not a full but a partial euroization, which can appear in a very difficult situation in country`s economy or when currency independence is not safe and profitable. Resignation from the national currency is like an act of desperation, or at least it is forced by the lack of the abilities to manage the economic problems. The purpose of this publication is to show euroization as state (partly also as process), particularly on the examples of Lithuania and Poland. It obviously it does not seem new, but many changes in the world economy (with special regard to the crisis hurting the European Union) and the lower enthusiasm for joining the Euroland (euro zone) show the need to consider such a problem.
通常,欧元化与通过不容易实现和维持马斯特里赫特条约标准的必要性以及接受(a)先验地退出本国货币的明确过程有关。在完成采用欧元所需的调整期后,欧洲法律强制完全脱离本国货币。这一过程受到欧盟机构的严密监督和控制。此外,《马斯特里赫特条约》规定,当一个国家经济状况良好,且符合名义趋同标准时,有义务引入欧元。在这种情况下,采用共同货币必须(或应该)始终被解释为经济稳定发展和未来保持这种参数的能力的证明。然而,在不执行(甚至违反)《条约》而实现欧元化的情况下,没有必要补充任何欧洲法律义务,特别是没有义务完全放弃本国货币。这种欧元的采用意味着不是完全的而是部分的欧元化,这可能出现在一个国家经济非常困难的情况下,或者在货币独立不安全和不有利可图的情况下。退出本国货币就像是一种绝望的行为,或者至少是由于缺乏管理经济问题的能力而被迫退出的。本出版物的目的是展示欧元化作为一个国家(部分也是一个过程),特别是以立陶宛和波兰为例。显然,这似乎并不新鲜,但世界经济的许多变化(特别是对欧盟造成伤害的危机)和加入欧元区的热情下降表明有必要考虑这样一个问题。
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引用次数: 1
Beyond the Economics of the Euro: Analysing the Institutional Evolution of EMU 1999-2010 超越欧元经济学:1999-2010年欧洲货币联盟制度演变分析
Pub Date : 2011-03-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1791572
Marion Salines, G. Glöckler, Zbigniew Truchlewski, Paola del Favero
This Occasional Paper examines how and why the institutional framework governing EMU has evolved since the creation of the euro. Building on theories of institutionalism, the paper in particular investigates to what extent functional spillovers from the single currency into other policy domains, like macroeconomic policies or financial regulation, met with an adequate institutional response, and to what extent the existing institutional framework conditioned the response to the financial crisis. The interaction between policy requirements and institutional capabilities is examined both in 'ordinary times' (1999-2007) and under 'crisis conditions' (2007-10). The paper uses a typology of change which helps to put into perspective both the resilience of the institutional framework of EMU and its capacity to adapt. In this respect, it allows for a better understanding and framing of the current reforms of EMU economic governance. It concludes that even though the crisis will accelerate institutional development, it will do so only gradually, as path dependence and an inbuilt bias towards incremental change will prevent policy-makers from pursuing a 'clean slate' strategy.
本文考察了自欧元诞生以来,管理欧洲货币联盟的制度框架是如何以及为何演变的。在制度主义理论的基础上,本文特别研究了从单一货币到其他政策领域(如宏观经济政策或金融监管)的功能溢出在多大程度上得到了适当的制度反应,以及现有制度框架在多大程度上制约了对金融危机的反应。政策要求和制度能力之间的相互作用在“正常时期”(1999-2007)和“危机条件”(2007- 2010)下进行了研究。本文使用了一种变化的类型学,这有助于对欧洲货币联盟制度框架的弹性及其适应能力进行透视。在这方面,它允许更好地理解和构建当前欧洲货币联盟经济治理改革。报告得出的结论是,尽管危机将加速制度发展,但这只能是渐进的,因为路径依赖和对渐进式变化的固有偏见将阻止政策制定者追求“从零开始”的战略。
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引用次数: 10
A Monetary Union in Asia? Some European Lessons 亚洲货币联盟?欧洲的一些教训
Pub Date : 2001-12-31 DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2001.5.2.82
Charles Wyplosz
Monetary Union in Europe has been the natural response to the combined desire of stabilizing intra-European exchange rates and of lifting permanently all capital controls. The commitment to stable exchange rate has long been rooted in policymakers' conviction that trade integration requires precise rules which eliminate the risk of misalignments, whether imposed by the markets or arranged by the authorities. The success in maintaining fixed-but-adjustable exchange rates within the EMS and next in adopting a single currency is largely due to the patient and progressive building institutions that became the uneasy repository of those parts of national sovereignty that have been abandoned. This experience suggests three lessons for current discussions about a monetary union in Asia. First, multilateral regional exchange rate arrangements are more conducive to an effective defense than indirect approaches like basket pegs. They probably require some limits to capital mobility. Second, adopting a single currency necessitates elaborate preparations that can only be underpinned by the gradual build up of collective institutions. Third, a monetaryMonetary Union in Europe has been the natural response to the combined desire of stabilizing intra-European exchange rates and of lifting permanently all capital controls. The commitment to stable exchange rate has long been rooted in policymakers' conviction that trade integration requires precise rules which eliminate the risk of misalignments, whether imposed by the markets or arranged by the authorities. The success in maintaining fixed-but-adjustable exchange rates within the EMS and next in adopting a single currency is largely due to the patient and progressive building institutions that became the uneasy repository of those parts of national sovereignty that have been abandoned. This experience suggests three lessons for current discussions about a monetary union in Asia. First, multilateral regional exchange rate arrangements are more conducive to an effective defense than indirect approaches like basket pegs. They probably require some limits to capital mobility. Second, adopting a single currency necessitates elaborate preparations that can only be underpinned by the gradual build up of collective institutions. Third, a monetary union requires some reasonable degree of real convergence. This implies starting with a core of sufficiently homogeneous countries. At this stage, starting with a monetary union in Asia would imply reversing the European sequencing, which started with a common market, moved on to the EMS, and liberalization of capital movements.
欧洲货币联盟是对稳定欧洲内部汇率和永久解除所有资本管制的共同愿望的自然反应。长期以来,对汇率稳定的承诺植根于政策制定者的信念,即贸易一体化需要精确的规则,以消除失衡的风险,无论是由市场强加的还是由当局安排的。在新兴市场体系内成功地维持固定但可调整的汇率,继而成功地采用单一货币,这在很大程度上要归功于耐心而渐进地建立机构,这些机构成为了那些已被放弃的国家主权部分的不稳定储存库。这一经历为当前有关亚洲货币联盟的讨论提供了三点教训。首先,与盯住一篮子货币等间接手段相比,多边区域汇率安排更有利于有效防御。它们可能需要对资本流动进行一些限制。其次,采用单一货币需要精心准备,而这些准备只能通过逐步建立集体机构来支撑。第三,对于稳定欧洲内部汇率和永久解除所有资本管制的共同愿望,欧洲货币联盟(monetary Union)一直是一种自然反应。长期以来,对汇率稳定的承诺植根于政策制定者的信念,即贸易一体化需要精确的规则,以消除失衡的风险,无论是由市场强加的还是由当局安排的。在新兴市场体系内成功地维持固定但可调整的汇率,继而成功地采用单一货币,这在很大程度上要归功于耐心而渐进地建立机构,这些机构成为了那些已被放弃的国家主权部分的不稳定储存库。这一经历为当前有关亚洲货币联盟的讨论提供了三点教训。首先,与盯住一篮子货币等间接手段相比,多边区域汇率安排更有利于有效防御。它们可能需要对资本流动进行一些限制。其次,采用单一货币需要精心准备,而这些准备只能通过逐步建立集体机构来支撑。第三,货币联盟需要某种合理程度的真正趋同。这意味着从一个足够同质的国家核心开始。在这个阶段,从亚洲货币联盟开始,将意味着逆转欧洲的顺序——从共同市场开始,到新兴市场,再到资本流动自由化。
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引用次数: 82
How Euro Shrinks Democracy: Insights from the Greek Crisis 欧元如何收缩民主:希腊危机的启示
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.22495/JGR_V4_I4_C1_P1
A. Lanzavecchia, Eugenio Pavarani, G. Tagliavini
The adoption of a single currency in Europe is a pure political project. What we have learned from Greek crisis is that being in the Eurozone means that creditors can destroy a national economy and seize public assets if the government steps out of line. To keep the European project alive, we here call for a fundamental reform on sovereign debt: switching from a goal to which policy is constrained, back to a tool to serve policy aims. In a distressed country, lenders has the power to forces the borrower to accept and to adopt restrictive spending policies that defend their interest at the expense of citizen’s ones. Eventually, this leads inevitably to the loss of autonomy in borrower’s decisions on fiscal policy, spending policy, public properties. If the cause for this degenerative process is the privilege on sovereign debt, then we need to find a new framework that reclassifies the public debt as functional to human development rather than individual profits. A country shall not be allowed to repay a debt that goes beyond its repayment capacity. The maximum payback capacity shall be settled before the credit is granted as a fraction of its primary balance. As such, the amount of primary balance not pledged to the repayment of the debt shall be always available to the government to undertake investments, social or security expenses and to face unexpected events. If this rule were implemented, the capital market would be automatically regulated: the debt that exceeds that threshold would be automatically written-off.
在欧洲采用单一货币纯粹是一个政治项目。我们从希腊危机中学到的是,加入欧元区意味着,如果政府越界,债权人可以摧毁一个国家的经济,夺取公共资产。为了让欧洲一体化存续下去,我们在此呼吁对主权债务进行根本性改革:从政策受限的目标转变为服务于政策目标的工具。在一个陷入困境的国家,贷款人有权迫使借款人接受并采取限制性的支出政策,以牺牲公民的利益为代价来捍卫自己的利益。最终,这将不可避免地导致借款人在财政政策、支出政策和公共财产决策方面丧失自主权。如果这种退化过程的原因是主权债务的特权,那么我们需要找到一个新的框架,将公共债务重新分类为人类发展的功能,而不是个人利益。一个国家不得偿还超出其偿还能力的债务。最高偿还能力应在授信前结算,作为其原始余额的一部分。因此,未质押偿还债务的基本余额应始终供政府用于投资、社会或安全支出以及应对突发事件。如果这条规则得以实施,资本市场将自动受到监管:超过这一门槛的债务将被自动注销。
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引用次数: 0
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PSN: Regional Monetary Union (Topic)
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