Pub Date : 1998-01-19DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1998.653594
M. V. Frank, K. Silke
The Galileo spacecraft deployed a probe, during 1995, to investigate the atmosphere of Jupiter. It was powered by Li/SO/sub 2/ batteries that could not be tested during the 6 years of travel from Earth to Jupiter. The fundamental problem for the decision-makers during the mission was the uncertainty in knowing whether the batteries had sufficient capacity left to perform the planned mission. Battery tests performed at Ames Research Center dating back to 1984 indicated that sufficient capacity should be available. However, the statistical uncertainties associated with the data set and the inherent applicability of the data set to the in-flight set of batteries had not been considered. Accounting for all identified uncertainties, a Bayesian Weibull analysis using a Monte Carlo solution technique, determined the confidence that the battery set on-board the Galileo probe would perform adequately.
{"title":"Galileo-probe battery-lifetime estimation","authors":"M. V. Frank, K. Silke","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1998.653594","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1998.653594","url":null,"abstract":"The Galileo spacecraft deployed a probe, during 1995, to investigate the atmosphere of Jupiter. It was powered by Li/SO/sub 2/ batteries that could not be tested during the 6 years of travel from Earth to Jupiter. The fundamental problem for the decision-makers during the mission was the uncertainty in knowing whether the batteries had sufficient capacity left to perform the planned mission. Battery tests performed at Ames Research Center dating back to 1984 indicated that sufficient capacity should be available. However, the statistical uncertainties associated with the data set and the inherent applicability of the data set to the in-flight set of batteries had not been considered. Accounting for all identified uncertainties, a Bayesian Weibull analysis using a Monte Carlo solution technique, determined the confidence that the battery set on-board the Galileo probe would perform adequately.","PeriodicalId":275301,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 1998 Proceedings. International Symposium on Product Quality and Integrity","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131174976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1998-01-19DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1998.653798
D. Theunissen, R. Owen Holbrook
Storage test data collected over 15 years of the United States Navy Harpoon anti-ship missile program provides experiential data to compare to theoretical models. The Harpoon missile shows an increasing storage MTBF with an increasing missile population age. Electronic subassemblies show storage MTBF growth with time. Mechanical subassemblies have higher storage MTBFs, but show little or no growth. Air-launched, ship-launched, and submarine-launched variants of the Harpoon missile are exposed to different environments which causes variations in the resulting storage reliabilities. The effects upon storage reliability apparently are not related to temperature and humidity so much as they are related to vibration and physical shock.
{"title":"Effects of environment and aging upon missile reliability","authors":"D. Theunissen, R. Owen Holbrook","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1998.653798","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1998.653798","url":null,"abstract":"Storage test data collected over 15 years of the United States Navy Harpoon anti-ship missile program provides experiential data to compare to theoretical models. The Harpoon missile shows an increasing storage MTBF with an increasing missile population age. Electronic subassemblies show storage MTBF growth with time. Mechanical subassemblies have higher storage MTBFs, but show little or no growth. Air-launched, ship-launched, and submarine-launched variants of the Harpoon missile are exposed to different environments which causes variations in the resulting storage reliabilities. The effects upon storage reliability apparently are not related to temperature and humidity so much as they are related to vibration and physical shock.","PeriodicalId":275301,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 1998 Proceedings. International Symposium on Product Quality and Integrity","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126657265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1997-10-01DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1998.653645
W. Kerscher, J. Booker, T. R. Bement, M. Meyer
Just as estimates of cost and program timing are critical factors to be known and monitored during a new product development program, so too is the reliability perspective. This paper describes an approach to reliability modeling that encompasses the impact of both product and manufacturing process design on the distribution (characterizing the uncertainty) of reliability over time. It further describes the elicitation of expert judgment which is used to quantify the initial reliability estimate, including uncertainty. Finally, it describes a Bayesian updating approach which is applicable throughout the development program, and which accommodates a wide variety of possible new information. Although the model is rigorous in its execution; a user-friendly approximation is also described which may be useful to the product development team for purposes of test and validation planning.
{"title":"Characterizing reliability in a product/process design-assurance program","authors":"W. Kerscher, J. Booker, T. R. Bement, M. Meyer","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1998.653645","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1998.653645","url":null,"abstract":"Just as estimates of cost and program timing are critical factors to be known and monitored during a new product development program, so too is the reliability perspective. This paper describes an approach to reliability modeling that encompasses the impact of both product and manufacturing process design on the distribution (characterizing the uncertainty) of reliability over time. It further describes the elicitation of expert judgment which is used to quantify the initial reliability estimate, including uncertainty. Finally, it describes a Bayesian updating approach which is applicable throughout the development program, and which accommodates a wide variety of possible new information. Although the model is rigorous in its execution; a user-friendly approximation is also described which may be useful to the product development team for purposes of test and validation planning.","PeriodicalId":275301,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 1998 Proceedings. International Symposium on Product Quality and Integrity","volume":"460 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1997-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124260971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1997-04-20DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1998.653739
M. Leuschen, I. Walker, Joseph R. Cavallaro
In the past few years, new applications of robots have increased the importance of robotic reliability and fault tolerance. Standard approaches of reliability engineering rely on the probability model, which is often inappropriate for this task due to a lack of sufficient probabilistic information during the design and prototyping phases. Fuzzy logic offers an alternative to the probability paradigm, possibility, that is much more appropriate to reliability in the robotic context. Fuzzy Markov modeling, the technique developed in this paper, is a technique for analyzing fault tolerant designs under considerable uncertainty, such as is seen in compilations of component failure rates. It is sufficiently detailed to provide useful information while maintaining the fuzziness (uncertainty) inherent in the situation. It works well in conjunction with fuzzy fault trees, a well-established fuzzy reliability tool. Perhaps most importantly, it builds directly on existing reliability techniques, making it easy to add to reliability toolboxes.
{"title":"Robot reliability through fuzzy Markov models","authors":"M. Leuschen, I. Walker, Joseph R. Cavallaro","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1998.653739","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1998.653739","url":null,"abstract":"In the past few years, new applications of robots have increased the importance of robotic reliability and fault tolerance. Standard approaches of reliability engineering rely on the probability model, which is often inappropriate for this task due to a lack of sufficient probabilistic information during the design and prototyping phases. Fuzzy logic offers an alternative to the probability paradigm, possibility, that is much more appropriate to reliability in the robotic context. Fuzzy Markov modeling, the technique developed in this paper, is a technique for analyzing fault tolerant designs under considerable uncertainty, such as is seen in compilations of component failure rates. It is sufficiently detailed to provide useful information while maintaining the fuzziness (uncertainty) inherent in the situation. It works well in conjunction with fuzzy fault trees, a well-established fuzzy reliability tool. Perhaps most importantly, it builds directly on existing reliability techniques, making it easy to add to reliability toolboxes.","PeriodicalId":275301,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 1998 Proceedings. International Symposium on Product Quality and Integrity","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1997-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128170820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1900-01-01DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1998.653529
D. Hoffman
Concurrent Engineering (CE), or Integrated Product Development, is a Department of Defense (DoD) initiative for the defense industry; it has also been used very successfully by commercial industries. CE is applicable to any industry that develops its own products and wants to remain competitive in today's marketplace. The Computer-Aided Acquisition and Logistics Support (now called Continuous Acquisition and Life-Cycle Support) (CALS)/CE Industrial Steering Group (ISG), within the National Security Industrial Association (NSIA), chartered task groups to identify issues and guides to CE in the following areas: information exchange, electronic systems, mechanical systems, software, reliability and maintainability (R&M), manufacturing, and technical administration. This overview focuses on the electronic systems report, entitled First Principles of Concurrent Engineering: A Competitive Strategy for Electronic System Development. The core of the report defines the first principles and involves a technique for a self-assessment of the should be and the where is environment for CE. From the results of this self-evaluation, improvement planning and roadmap generation are possible from the report material. Also covered are benefits of CE, DoD, and industry obstacles to CE technology insights that enable CE, and recommendations to DoD and to industry to foster CE implementation. This report is the first primer on CE and should clarify the intent of CE as envisioned. This is a timely subject, as CE is now prone to many view points and ideas more aligned to partial instead of total implementation.
{"title":"An overview of concurrent engineering","authors":"D. Hoffman","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1998.653529","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1998.653529","url":null,"abstract":"Concurrent Engineering (CE), or Integrated Product Development, is a Department of Defense (DoD) initiative for the defense industry; it has also been used very successfully by commercial industries. CE is applicable to any industry that develops its own products and wants to remain competitive in today's marketplace. The Computer-Aided Acquisition and Logistics Support (now called Continuous Acquisition and Life-Cycle Support) (CALS)/CE Industrial Steering Group (ISG), within the National Security Industrial Association (NSIA), chartered task groups to identify issues and guides to CE in the following areas: information exchange, electronic systems, mechanical systems, software, reliability and maintainability (R&M), manufacturing, and technical administration. This overview focuses on the electronic systems report, entitled First Principles of Concurrent Engineering: A Competitive Strategy for Electronic System Development. The core of the report defines the first principles and involves a technique for a self-assessment of the should be and the where is environment for CE. From the results of this self-evaluation, improvement planning and roadmap generation are possible from the report material. Also covered are benefits of CE, DoD, and industry obstacles to CE technology insights that enable CE, and recommendations to DoD and to industry to foster CE implementation. This report is the first primer on CE and should clarify the intent of CE as envisioned. This is a timely subject, as CE is now prone to many view points and ideas more aligned to partial instead of total implementation.","PeriodicalId":275301,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 1998 Proceedings. International Symposium on Product Quality and Integrity","volume":"79 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114941890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1900-01-01DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.1998.653774
S. Bavuso
The Federal Aviation Administration has embarked on an historic task of modernizing and significantly improving the national air transportation system. One system that uses the Global Positioning System (GPS) to determine aircraft navigational information is called the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). This paper describes a reliability assessment of one candidate system architecture for the WAAS. A unique aspect of this study regards the modeling and solution of a candidate system that allows a novel cold sparing scheme. The cold spare is a WAAS communications satellite that is fabricated and launched after a predetermined number of orbiting satellite failures have occurred and after some stochastic fabrication time transpires. Because these satellites are complex systems with redundant components, they exhibit an increasing failure rate with a Weibull time to failure distribution. Moreover, the cold spare satellite build-time is Weibull and upon launch is considered to be a good-as-new system with an increasing failure rate and a Weibull time to failure distribution as well. The reliability model for this system is nonMarkovian because three distinct system clocks are required: the time to failure of the orbiting satellites, the build time for the cold spare, and the time to failure for the launched spare satellite. A powerful dynamic fault tree modeling notation and Monte Carlo simulation technique with importance sampling are shown to arrive at a reliability prediction for a 10 year mission.
{"title":"A novel solution-technique applied to a novel WAAS architecture","authors":"S. Bavuso","doi":"10.1109/RAMS.1998.653774","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.1998.653774","url":null,"abstract":"The Federal Aviation Administration has embarked on an historic task of modernizing and significantly improving the national air transportation system. One system that uses the Global Positioning System (GPS) to determine aircraft navigational information is called the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). This paper describes a reliability assessment of one candidate system architecture for the WAAS. A unique aspect of this study regards the modeling and solution of a candidate system that allows a novel cold sparing scheme. The cold spare is a WAAS communications satellite that is fabricated and launched after a predetermined number of orbiting satellite failures have occurred and after some stochastic fabrication time transpires. Because these satellites are complex systems with redundant components, they exhibit an increasing failure rate with a Weibull time to failure distribution. Moreover, the cold spare satellite build-time is Weibull and upon launch is considered to be a good-as-new system with an increasing failure rate and a Weibull time to failure distribution as well. The reliability model for this system is nonMarkovian because three distinct system clocks are required: the time to failure of the orbiting satellites, the build time for the cold spare, and the time to failure for the launched spare satellite. A powerful dynamic fault tree modeling notation and Monte Carlo simulation technique with importance sampling are shown to arrive at a reliability prediction for a 10 year mission.","PeriodicalId":275301,"journal":{"name":"Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 1998 Proceedings. International Symposium on Product Quality and Integrity","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129486968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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