This study produces an attempt to estimate the cost of future global energy supplies. The approach chosen to address this concern relies on a comparative static exercise of estimating the cost of three energy scenarios representing different energy futures. The first scenario, the business as usual scenario, predicts the future energy-mix based on the energy plans held by major countries. The second scenario is the renewable energy scenario, where as much of the primary energy supply as possible is replaced by renewable energy by 2050. The cost of the renewable energy generating technologies and their theoretical potential are taken into account in order to create a plausible scenario. The third scenario, the nuclear case, is based on the use of nuclear and renewable energy to replace fossil-fuels by 2050. Endogenous learning rates for each technology are modeled using an innovative approach where learning rates are diminishing overtime. It results from the analysis that going fully renewable would cost between −0.4 and 1.5% of the global cumulated GDP over the period 2009–2050 compared to a business as usual strategy. An extensive use of nuclear power can greatly reduce this gap in costs.
{"title":"Estimating the Cost of Future Global Energy Supply","authors":"Patrick A. Narbel, J. Hansen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2180493","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2180493","url":null,"abstract":"This study produces an attempt to estimate the cost of future global energy supplies. The approach chosen to address this concern relies on a comparative static exercise of estimating the cost of three energy scenarios representing different energy futures. The first scenario, the business as usual scenario, predicts the future energy-mix based on the energy plans held by major countries. The second scenario is the renewable energy scenario, where as much of the primary energy supply as possible is replaced by renewable energy by 2050. The cost of the renewable energy generating technologies and their theoretical potential are taken into account in order to create a plausible scenario. The third scenario, the nuclear case, is based on the use of nuclear and renewable energy to replace fossil-fuels by 2050. Endogenous learning rates for each technology are modeled using an innovative approach where learning rates are diminishing overtime. It results from the analysis that going fully renewable would cost between −0.4 and 1.5% of the global cumulated GDP over the period 2009–2050 compared to a business as usual strategy. An extensive use of nuclear power can greatly reduce this gap in costs.","PeriodicalId":277238,"journal":{"name":"Nuclear Energy (Sustainability) eJournal","volume":"294 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116747134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper analyzes the causes, responses, and consequences of the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident (March 2011) by comparing these with Three Mile Island (March 1979) and Chernobyl (April 1986). We identify three generic modes of organizational coordination: modular, vertical, and horizontal. By relying on comparative institutional analysis, we compare the modes' performance characteristics in terms of short-term and long-term coordination, preparedness for shocks, and responsiveness to shocks. We derive general lessons, including the identification of three shortcomings of integrated Japanese electric utilities: (1) decision instability that can lead to system failure after a large shock, (2) poor incentives to innovate, and (3) the lack of defense-in-depth strategies for accidents. Our suggested policy response is to introduce an independent Nuclear Safety Commission, and an Independent System Operator to coordinate buyers and sellers on publicly owned transmission grids. Without an independent safety regulator, or a very well established “safety culture,” profit-maximizing behavior by an entrenched electricity monopoly will not necessarily lead to a social optimum with regard to nuclear power plant safety. All countries considering continued operation or expansion of their nuclear power industries must strive to establish independent, competent, and respected safety regulators, or prepare for nuclear power plant accidents.
{"title":"A Comparative Institutional Analysis of the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster: Lessons and Policy Implications","authors":"M. Aoki, G. Rothwell","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1940207","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1940207","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the causes, responses, and consequences of the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident (March 2011) by comparing these with Three Mile Island (March 1979) and Chernobyl (April 1986). We identify three generic modes of organizational coordination: modular, vertical, and horizontal. By relying on comparative institutional analysis, we compare the modes' performance characteristics in terms of short-term and long-term coordination, preparedness for shocks, and responsiveness to shocks. We derive general lessons, including the identification of three shortcomings of integrated Japanese electric utilities: (1) decision instability that can lead to system failure after a large shock, (2) poor incentives to innovate, and (3) the lack of defense-in-depth strategies for accidents. Our suggested policy response is to introduce an independent Nuclear Safety Commission, and an Independent System Operator to coordinate buyers and sellers on publicly owned transmission grids. Without an independent safety regulator, or a very well established “safety culture,” profit-maximizing behavior by an entrenched electricity monopoly will not necessarily lead to a social optimum with regard to nuclear power plant safety. All countries considering continued operation or expansion of their nuclear power industries must strive to establish independent, competent, and respected safety regulators, or prepare for nuclear power plant accidents.","PeriodicalId":277238,"journal":{"name":"Nuclear Energy (Sustainability) eJournal","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122179923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper seeks to understand the various effects that the nuclear energy program has on the economic development of any country, particularly the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Global energy requirements are only increasing with each passing day and the contribution of nuclear power to the overall energy consumption is bound to increase significantly in the coming days. Energy security and climate change are important reasons to pursue nuclear power policies. Electricity is the driving force behind development and nuclear energy provides an effective source for electricity. UAE seeks nuclear energy due to its dwindling natural resources. Economic development of the country can only be maintained by following nuclear energy programs coupled with high standards of safety and security.
{"title":"Nuclear Energy Effects on Economic Development","authors":"Chenoy Ceil","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2068016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2068016","url":null,"abstract":"This paper seeks to understand the various effects that the nuclear energy program has on the economic development of any country, particularly the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Global energy requirements are only increasing with each passing day and the contribution of nuclear power to the overall energy consumption is bound to increase significantly in the coming days. Energy security and climate change are important reasons to pursue nuclear power policies. Electricity is the driving force behind development and nuclear energy provides an effective source for electricity. UAE seeks nuclear energy due to its dwindling natural resources. Economic development of the country can only be maintained by following nuclear energy programs coupled with high standards of safety and security.","PeriodicalId":277238,"journal":{"name":"Nuclear Energy (Sustainability) eJournal","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116609356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The disaster at Fukushima has clearly illuminated some of the issues, which operating an energy market through regionally isolated monopolies give rise to. At the same time, a shift towards renewable energies is increasingly being perceived as necessary in Japan. In order to achieve this objective as well as improve the markets compliance and transparency, shifting the market towards a more competitive structure is desirable. However, established incumbents will often have an arsenal of methods available to discourage outsiders from entering the market, as well as inhibiting fringe firms growth. This paper examines the economical, political and legal barriers to entry in the Japanese energy market. The effect of the interwovenness of energy companies and political entities is examined. Furthermore, the efficacy of policies aimed at promoting renewable energies is explored. Finally, a model is outlined, in which the effects of the incumbents competition deterring capital is outlined and a tipping point beyond which the monopolistic incumbent becomes unchallangeable within the current regime is established. This paper confirms that a feed-in tariff, along with the lifting of restrictive regulation would improve conditions for fringe firms substantially. While such measures can not replace fundamental reform of the structure of the market, they constitute an important first step towards market liberalization.
{"title":"Renewable Energy in Japan: New Competition in the Energy Market after Fukushima","authors":"A. Semmler","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2124157","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2124157","url":null,"abstract":"The disaster at Fukushima has clearly illuminated some of the issues, which operating an energy market through regionally isolated monopolies give rise to. At the same time, a shift towards renewable energies is increasingly being perceived as necessary in Japan. In order to achieve this objective as well as improve the markets compliance and transparency, shifting the market towards a more competitive structure is desirable. However, established incumbents will often have an arsenal of methods available to discourage outsiders from entering the market, as well as inhibiting fringe firms growth. This paper examines the economical, political and legal barriers to entry in the Japanese energy market. The effect of the interwovenness of energy companies and political entities is examined. Furthermore, the efficacy of policies aimed at promoting renewable energies is explored. Finally, a model is outlined, in which the effects of the incumbents competition deterring capital is outlined and a tipping point beyond which the monopolistic incumbent becomes unchallangeable within the current regime is established. This paper confirms that a feed-in tariff, along with the lifting of restrictive regulation would improve conditions for fringe firms substantially. While such measures can not replace fundamental reform of the structure of the market, they constitute an important first step towards market liberalization.","PeriodicalId":277238,"journal":{"name":"Nuclear Energy (Sustainability) eJournal","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126320957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Daniel K. N. Johnson, J. Moore, Kristina M.L. Acri née Lybecker
This paper examines the location of innovations within green technology, using U.S. patent citation data to trace their inter-generational knowledge flows over time. Clustering is clearly evident, and we use multivariate left-censored Tobit regression analysis to control for identifiable factors, to show that the distance between successive innovators has not been rising over time. The interesting exception is nuclear energy in which distance appears to be decreasing over time. If we consider only inter-city transfers, the waste management also becomes more concentrated over time, while transportation declusters.
{"title":"Where are the Eco-Innovators? Analysis of the Knowledge Flows between Successive Generations of Green Technology Innovations","authors":"Daniel K. N. Johnson, J. Moore, Kristina M.L. Acri née Lybecker","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2025625","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2025625","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the location of innovations within green technology, using U.S. patent citation data to trace their inter-generational knowledge flows over time. Clustering is clearly evident, and we use multivariate left-censored Tobit regression analysis to control for identifiable factors, to show that the distance between successive innovators has not been rising over time. The interesting exception is nuclear energy in which distance appears to be decreasing over time. If we consider only inter-city transfers, the waste management also becomes more concentrated over time, while transportation declusters.","PeriodicalId":277238,"journal":{"name":"Nuclear Energy (Sustainability) eJournal","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114085061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Two recent events in the energy sector – the Macondo well blowout in the U.S. coastal waters and a series of equipment failures at the Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant in Japan – have shown that current definitions of who pays for accidental pollution damage and third parties’ losses are ambiguous. Using methods of economic analysis, this paper identifies potential deficiencies in the current liability regimes for the energy sector and proposes certain measures, introduction of which would increase efficiency of some liability regimes.
{"title":"Addressing Gaps in a Liability Regime for the Energy Sector","authors":"Vlad Ivanenko","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1977695","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1977695","url":null,"abstract":"Two recent events in the energy sector – the Macondo well blowout in the U.S. coastal waters and a series of equipment failures at the Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant in Japan – have shown that current definitions of who pays for accidental pollution damage and third parties’ losses are ambiguous. Using methods of economic analysis, this paper identifies potential deficiencies in the current liability regimes for the energy sector and proposes certain measures, introduction of which would increase efficiency of some liability regimes.","PeriodicalId":277238,"journal":{"name":"Nuclear Energy (Sustainability) eJournal","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129968708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper claims that the 2011 Italian referendum on nuclear power is taking shape as a clean laboratory for the measurement of one of the main aspects of the NIMBY (Not In My BackYard) issue. Since the citizens voted on the possibility for the government to set up new nuclear plants in well-known sites, we identify community preferences for their locations across Italian municipalities using the turnout rate. The Fukushima nuclear disaster that happened a few months before the referendum may have magnified negative attitudes toward nuclear power. Thus, taking into account regional and political features that may influence ideological aversion to nuclear power, we still find highly negative correlation between distance from nuclear sites and the turnout rate.
{"title":"Nimby Clout on the 2011 Italian Nuclear Referendum","authors":"G. Pignataro, G. Prarolo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1927845","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1927845","url":null,"abstract":"This paper claims that the 2011 Italian referendum on nuclear power is taking shape as a clean laboratory for the measurement of one of the main aspects of the NIMBY (Not In My BackYard) issue. Since the citizens voted on the possibility for the government to set up new nuclear plants in well-known sites, we identify community preferences for their locations across Italian municipalities using the turnout rate. The Fukushima nuclear disaster that happened a few months before the referendum may have magnified negative attitudes toward nuclear power. Thus, taking into account regional and political features that may influence ideological aversion to nuclear power, we still find highly negative correlation between distance from nuclear sites and the turnout rate.","PeriodicalId":277238,"journal":{"name":"Nuclear Energy (Sustainability) eJournal","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114847004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper we analyze the German congestion management regime and assess future congestion management costs given a higher share of intermittent renewable generation. In this context, cost-based re-dispatching of power plants and technical flexibility through topology optimization are considered as market-based and technical congestion management methods. To replicate the current market regime in Germany a two-step procedure is chosen consisting of a transactional spot market model and a congestion management model. The results show that currently congestion can mainly be managed by optimizing the network topology. However, congestion management costs tend to increase significantly in future years even if proposed network extensions are taken into account due to higher wind generation and proposed power plant investments, both located mainly in northern Germany. The phase-out of German nuclear power plants additionally impacts congestion management costs. We conclude that there is a need for improving the current congestion management regime.
{"title":"Improving Congestion Management - How to Facilitate the Integration of Renewable Generation in Germany","authors":"F. Kunz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1895293","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1895293","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we analyze the German congestion management regime and assess future congestion management costs given a higher share of intermittent renewable generation. In this context, cost-based re-dispatching of power plants and technical flexibility through topology optimization are considered as market-based and technical congestion management methods. To replicate the current market regime in Germany a two-step procedure is chosen consisting of a transactional spot market model and a congestion management model. The results show that currently congestion can mainly be managed by optimizing the network topology. However, congestion management costs tend to increase significantly in future years even if proposed network extensions are taken into account due to higher wind generation and proposed power plant investments, both located mainly in northern Germany. The phase-out of German nuclear power plants additionally impacts congestion management costs. We conclude that there is a need for improving the current congestion management regime.","PeriodicalId":277238,"journal":{"name":"Nuclear Energy (Sustainability) eJournal","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129548550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper we present the details of how we converted the definitions of success provided by technical experts into economic parameters for the MiniCAM integrated assessment model.
在本文中，我们详细介绍了如何将技术专家提供的成功定义转换为MiniCAM综合评估模型的经济参数。
{"title":"Advanced Nuclear Power: Converting Expert Elicitations into Economic Parameters to Inform Climate Policy","authors":"H. Chon, J. Keisler, E. Baker","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1289823","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1289823","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we present the details of how we converted the definitions of success provided by technical experts into economic parameters for the MiniCAM integrated assessment model.","PeriodicalId":277238,"journal":{"name":"Nuclear Energy (Sustainability) eJournal","volume":"30 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115928823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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