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The International Regulation of Climate Engineering: Lessons from Nuclear Power 国际气候工程规范:核电的经验教训
Pub Date : 2014-04-01 DOI: 10.1093/JEL/EQU006
Jesse L. Reynolds
Proposals for climate engineering — intentional large-scale interventions in climate systems — are increasingly under consideration as potential additional responses to climate change, yet they pose risks of their own. Existing international regulation of large-scale field testing and deployment is considered inadequate. This article looks to the closest existing analogy — nuclear power — for lessons, and concludes that climate engineering research will most likely be promoted and will not be the subject of a binding multilateral agreement in the near future. Instead, climate engineering and its research will probably be internationally regulated gradually, with an initially low degree of legalisation, and through a plurality of means and institutions. This regulation is expected to proceed from norms, to non-binding and non-legal policies, and then to relatively soft multilateral agreements which emphasise procedural duties. Any eventual agreements will have trade-offs between their strength and breadth of participation. Intergovernmental institutions could play important facilitative roles. Treaties regarding liability and non-proliferation of global deployment capability should be considered.
气候工程的建议——有意对气候系统进行大规模干预——正越来越多地作为对气候变化的潜在额外响应而受到考虑,然而它们本身也存在风险。目前关于大规模实地测试和部署的国际规章被认为是不充分的。这篇文章从现有的最接近的类比——核能——中寻找教训,并得出结论,气候工程研究很可能会得到促进,而不会在不久的将来成为具有约束力的多边协议的主题。相反,气候工程及其研究可能会逐步受到国际监管,最初的合法化程度较低,并通过多种手段和机构进行监管。预计这一规定将从规范开始,发展到不具约束力和不合法的政策,然后发展到强调程序责任的相对温和的多边协定。任何最终的协议都将在它们的力量和参与的广度之间进行权衡。政府间机构可以发挥重要的促进作用。应考虑关于责任和不扩散全球部署能力的条约。
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引用次数: 37
Induced Transnational Preference Change: Fukushima and Nuclear Power in Europe 诱导跨国偏好变化:福岛与欧洲核电
Pub Date : 2013-12-19 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2375819
H. Welsch, P. Biermann
We test whether the relationship between subjective well-being (SWB) of European citizens and the structure of electricity supply has changed after the Fukushima nuclear accident of March 11, 2011. Survey data for about 124,000 individuals in 23 European countries reveal that while European citizens’ SWB was statistically unrelated to the share of nuclear power before the Fukushima disaster, it was negatively related to the nuclear share after the disaster. Taking the relationship between SWB and the electricity supply structure as an indicator of preference, this suggests the existence of an induced transnational preference change.
在2011年3月11日福岛核事故发生后,我们检验了欧洲公民主观幸福感与电力供应结构之间的关系是否发生了变化。对23个欧洲国家约12.4万人的调查数据显示,虽然欧洲公民的幸福感在统计上与福岛灾难前的核电份额无关,但它与灾难后的核电份额呈负相关。将SWB与电力供应结构之间的关系作为偏好的指标,这表明存在诱导的跨国偏好变化。
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引用次数: 0
The Cost of Nuclear Electricity: France after Fukushima 核能的成本:福岛之后的法国
Pub Date : 2013-11-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2353305
Nicolas Boccard
The Fukushima disaster has lead the French government to release novel cost informationrelative to its nuclear electricity program allowing us to compute a levelized cost. Weidentify a modest escalation of capital cost and a larger than expected operational cost.Under the best scenario, the cost of French nuclear power over the last four decades is 59d/MWh (at 2010 prices) while in the worst case it is 83 d/MWh. On the basis of these findings,we estimate the future cost of nuclear power in France to be at least 76 d/MWh andpossibly 117 d/MWh. A comparison with the US confirms that French nuclear electricitynevertheless remains cheaper. Comparisons with coal, natural gas and wind power are carriedout to the advantage of these. Our data and code is attached as and .
福岛核灾难促使法国政府公布了有关其核电项目的新成本信息,使我们能够计算出一个平均化的成本。我们发现资本成本适度上升,运营成本高于预期。在最好的情况下,过去40年法国核电的成本是59天/兆瓦时(以2010年的价格计算),而在最坏的情况下是83天/兆瓦时。基于这些发现,我们估计法国未来的核电成本至少为76天/兆瓦时,可能为117天/兆瓦时。与美国的比较证实,法国的核电仍然更便宜。将其与煤炭、天然气和风能进行比较是为了利用这些优势。我们的数据和代码随附为和。
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引用次数: 64
Fukushima Nuclear Disaster – Implications for Japanese Agriculture and Food Chains 福岛核灾难-对日本农业和食物链的影响
Pub Date : 2013-09-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2319767
Hrabrin Bachev Храбрин Башев, Fusao Ito
There are few publications on various impacts of Fukushima nuclear disaster on agri-food sector in Japan in English. Moreover, due to the scale of contamination and affected agents, impact’s multiplicities and evolution, spillovers, and long time horizon, and the lack of “full” information and models of analysis, the overall impacts of Fukushima disaster on agrarian and food sector is far from being completely evaluated. This paper tries to fill the gap and assesses diverse impacts of Fukushima nuclear disaster on Japanese agriculture and food chains. First, a framework of analysis is presented. Second, immediate and short-term radiation effects, and effects on nearby population, safety regulation and inspection system, markets and consumer’s behavior, agrarian and food products, and health, as well as economic impacts on farming and agri-businesses, are all assessed. Third, overall shorter and longer-term impacts on agriculture, food industries, and consumers in Fukushima region, neighboring regions, and other parts of Japan are estimated.
关于福岛核灾难对日本农业食品行业的各种影响的英文出版物很少。此外,由于污染和受影响因素的规模、影响的多样性和演变、外溢性和时间跨度长,以及缺乏“充分”的信息和分析模型,福岛灾难对农业和食品部门的总体影响还远未得到全面评估。本文试图填补这一空白,并评估福岛核灾难对日本农业和食物链的不同影响。首先,提出了一个分析框架。其次,评估了辐射的即时和短期影响,以及对附近人口、安全监管和检查体系、市场和消费者行为、农产品和食品、健康的影响,以及对农业和农业企业的经济影响。第三,评估对福岛地区、周边地区和日本其他地区的农业、食品工业和消费者的短期和长期总体影响。
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引用次数: 8
Assessing the Extent of the Fukushima Effect on Perception of Multiple Energy Sources and its Implications for Energy Policy 评估福岛对多种能源认知的影响程度及其对能源政策的影响
Pub Date : 2013-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2390093
M. Nippa, Roh Pin Lee
This paper presents an in-depth analysis of the impact of an unexpected shock to the energy system on affective and cognitive perception of nuclear, coal, natural gas, oil, biomass, solar, and wind energy sources. Surveys conducted with young adults shortly before and after the Fukushima nuclear accident allowed for the identification of key image associations, affects and cognitive beliefs toward multiple energy sources and the examination of the extent of a potential Fukushima effect on energy perception. No support for an affective Fukushima effect is found as image associations and affects toward each energy source remain stable in the aftermath of the nuclear disaster. However, a significant and complex cognitive Fukushima effect on participants’ beliefs is observed. Study findings provide empirical evidence of the relative stability of affective energy perception in the aftermath of an unexpected shock. Furthermore, it highlights the complexity and interdependencies of affective and cognitive energy perception and emphasizes the value of comparative examination of multiple energy sources. Implications for future research and policy makers are discussed.
本文深入分析了能源系统意外冲击对核能、煤炭、天然气、石油、生物质能、太阳能和风能的情感和认知感知的影响。在福岛核事故发生前后不久,对年轻人进行了调查,确定了对多种能源的关键形象关联、影响和认知信念,并检查了福岛核事故对能源认知的潜在影响程度。没有证据表明福岛效应是有效的,因为在核灾难发生后,对每种能源的形象关联和影响保持稳定。然而,观察到一个显著的和复杂的认知福岛效应对参与者的信念。研究结果为意外冲击后情感能量感知的相对稳定性提供了经验证据。此外,它强调了情感和认知能量感知的复杂性和相互依赖性,并强调了多种能量来源的比较检查的价值。讨论了对未来研究和政策制定者的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Non-Nuclear, Low-Carbon, or Both? The Case of Taiwan 非核,低碳,还是两者都有?台湾案例
Pub Date : 2013-04-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2110221
Y.-H. Henry Chen
The Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan has renewed debates on the safety of nuclear power, possibly hurting the role of nuclear power in efforts to limit CO2 emissions. I develop a dynamic economy-wide model of Taiwan with a detailed set of technology options in the power sector to examine the implications of adopting different carbon and nuclear power policies on CO2 emissions and the economy. Without a carbon mitigation policy, limiting nuclear power has a small economic cost for Taiwan, but CO2 emissions may increase by around 4.5% by 2050 when nuclear is replaced by fossil-based generation. With a low-carbon target of a 50% reduction from year 2000 levels by 2050, the costs of cutting CO2 emissions are greatly reduced if both carbon sequestration and nuclear expansion were viable. This study finds that converting Taiwan's industrial structure into a less energy-intensive one is crucial to carry out the non-nuclear and low-carbon environment.
日本福岛核事故重新引发了关于核电安全的争论,可能会损害核电在限制二氧化碳排放方面的作用。我开发了一个动态的台湾经济整体模型,其中包括电力部门的一套详细的技术选择,以检验采用不同的碳和核电政策对二氧化碳排放和经济的影响。如果没有碳减排政策,限制核电对台湾的经济成本很小,但到2050年,当核电被化石燃料发电取代时,二氧化碳排放量可能会增加4.5%左右。低碳目标是到2050年在2000年的基础上减少50%,如果碳封存和核能扩张都可行,减少二氧化碳排放的成本就会大大降低。本研究发现,转变产业结构,降低能源密集程度,对台湾实施无核低碳环境至关重要。
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引用次数: 14
The Tsunami of March 2011 and the Subsequent Nuclear Incident at Fukushima: Who Compensates the Victims? 2011年3月的海啸和随后的福岛核事故:谁来赔偿受害者?
Pub Date : 2013-02-08 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2213713
M. Faure, Liu Jing
The tsunami which took place on 2011.3.11 before the coast of Japan and the subsequent nuclear incident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant have shocked the world and raised many questions. One of the questions is to what extent victims of the tsunami and of the nuclear incident can receive adequate compensation. We focus on the compensation system for earthquakes in Japan and show that Japan relies on an interesting private-public partnership whereby earthquake insurance is added to fire insurance and supplemented with a government guarantee in the re-insurance scheme. Since the earthquake coverage is, however, limited substantial government aid is still provided as well which raises questions on the influence of this government compensation on incentives of victims to take preventive measures and to purchase insurance coverage. Interestingly Japan has a detailed system of risk differentiation, e.g., rewarding victims for choosing earthquake proof constructions. After a critical analysis of the earthquake system we move to the compensation for nuclear damage in Japan, showing that, strikingly, Japan has a system of unlimited liability. However, given limited liability of the nuclear operator liability may de facto still be limited and should therefore be supplemented with financial guarantees. These are provided by the Japan Atomic Energy Insurance Pool. In case the damage is caused by an uninsurable risk like a natural disaster insurance coverage does not intervene, but the liability of the operator is covered via an indemnity agreement with the government. The indemnity is not a subsidy (like in many other legal systems) but the operator has to pay a fee for the indemnity provided by government. Only when the nuclear incident would be caused by a natural disaster of an exceptional character would liability of the operator be excluded. We show that the government is reluctant to admit the 3.11 tsunami as such a “natural disaster of an exceptional character” and the liable operator (TEPCO) takes up his financial responsibility. However, even though the operator in Japan pays a fee for the indemnity agreement also the compensation regime for nuclear disasters in Japan has substantial subsidies. This is also made clear by the recent act which is supposed to deal with the damage caused by the Fukushima incident via a Nuclear Damage Compensation Facilitation Corporation. The damage to be paid via this corporation will be financed not only by the liable operator TEPCO, but also via financial interventions from other nuclear operators and via the government. We examine the way in which the nuclear liability regime in Japan has been applied to two well-known incidents, being the Tokai-mura incident of 1999 and of course the recent Fukushima incident of March 2011. Moreover, we examine how the compensation regime for earthquakes and nuclear incidents in Japan compares to international tendencies and developments in the US. We argue that there are impor
2011年3月11日发生在日本海岸之前的海啸和随后发生的福岛核电站核事故震惊了世界,引发了许多问题。问题之一是海啸和核事故的受害者能在多大程度上得到足够的赔偿。我们将重点放在日本地震的赔偿制度上,并表明日本依赖于一种有趣的公私合作关系,即地震保险被添加到火灾保险中,并在再保险计划中辅以政府担保。然而,由于地震的覆盖范围有限,仍然提供大量的政府援助,这就提出了这种政府赔偿对激励受害者采取预防措施和购买保险的影响的问题。有趣的是,日本有一个详细的风险区分系统,例如,奖励选择抗震建筑的受害者。在对地震系统进行批判性分析之后,我们转到对日本核损害的赔偿,这表明,引人注目的是,日本有一个无限责任制度。然而,鉴于核运营者的有限责任,责任实际上可能仍然是有限的,因此应辅以财政担保。这些都是由日本原子能保险公司提供的。如果损害是由不可保险的风险造成的,比如自然灾害,保险范围不介入,但运营商的责任通过与政府签订的赔偿协议来承担。赔偿不是补贴(像许多其他法律制度一样),但运营商必须为政府提供的赔偿支付费用。只有当核事故是由特殊性质的自然灾害引起时,才可排除操作者的责任。我们表明,政府不愿意承认3.11海啸是一场“特殊性质的自然灾害”,负责的运营商(东京电力公司)承担了他的经济责任。然而,即使日本的运营商为赔偿协议支付费用,日本的核灾难赔偿制度也有大量补贴。最近通过“核损害赔偿促进团”处理福岛核事故损害的法案也表明了这一点。通过该公司支付的损失将不仅由负责的运营商东京电力公司提供资金,还将通过其他核运营商和政府的金融干预来提供资金。我们研究了日本的核责任制度是如何应用于两起众所周知的事件的,分别是1999年的东海村事件,当然还有最近的2011年3月的福岛事件。此外,我们研究了日本地震和核事故的赔偿制度如何与美国的国际趋势和发展相比较。我们认为,我们可以从福岛灾难中吸取重要的教训。一个重要的教训是,许多人认为这次事故是由于施工失败造成的,很可能不是运营商(东京电力公司)的责任(或者至少不是唯一的责任),而是建造商通用电气的责任。这就提出了一个重要的问题,即所谓将责任转嫁给核运营者(意思是只有运营者可以承担责任,排除所有其他方面的责任)的效率,因为它已被纳入国际公约。
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引用次数: 34
Cost of Electricity from the Jaitapur Nuclear Power Plant 斋塔普尔核电站的电力成本
Pub Date : 2013-02-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2214293
S. Raju, M. Ramana
The Indian Government has announced that it plans to purchase six European Pressurized Reactors (EPRs) for Jaitapur from the French company, Areva. No EPR is in commercial operation anywhere else in the world. Estimates of costs from plants under construction in Finland and France suggest that each unit may cost as much as Rs. 60,000 crores; at this price, six units will cost Rs. 3.6 lakh crores. We show that the expected starting tariff from these reactors, without including transmission and distribution costs, is likely to be around Rs. 14 per unit (kWh) of electricity. We point out that existing revenue model used by the Government already involves a large loss for the taxpayer. The Government may seek to make the tariff from Jaitapur competitive by increasing the scope and nature of these handouts.
印度政府宣布,计划从法国阿海珐公司购买6座欧洲加压反应堆(epr)用于jaiitapur核电站。世界上其他任何地方都没有EPR投入商业运营。芬兰和法国在建核电站的成本估计表明,每台机组的成本可能高达60亿卢比;按照这个价格,6套将耗资36万亿卢比。我们表明,在不包括传输和分配成本的情况下,这些反应堆的预期启动电价可能在每千瓦时14卢比左右。我们指出,政府现有的收入模式已经给纳税人带来了巨大的损失。政府可以通过增加这些施舍的范围和性质,使斋拉普尔的关税具有竞争力。
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引用次数: 4
An Exploratory Economic Analysis of Underground Pumped-Storage Hydro Power Plants in Abandoned Coal Mines 废弃煤矿地下抽水蓄能水电站的探索性经济分析
Pub Date : 2013-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2350106
R. Madlener, Jan Martin Specht
This study researches the concept of underground pumped-storage hydro power plants in closed-down underground hard coal mines in Germany. After a review on how this could be realized technically, an economic feasibility analysis is presented, with a particular focus on the costs for the underground storage reservoir. The analysis is performed for different lower (i.e., underground) reservoir sizes and temporal arbitrage potentials (peak/off-peak electricity price spreads), and cost uncertainty is dealt with by means of a Monte Carlo simulation for two distinct head heights. The findings regarding costs and acceptability are compared with those of a classic (on-surface) pumped-storage hydro power plant in a mountainous area. Based on a techno-economic evaluation we conclude that under favorable conditions the realization of underground pumped-storage hydro power (UPSHP) plants seems both technically feasible and economically reasonable. More specifically, an extension of a tubular system seems the most promising option. A UPSHP plant in a mineshaft is probably slightly more expensive than a conventional one, an outcome that depends strongly on the feasible head height. However, the significant reduction of the adverse impacts on the landscape and on local residents, as well as a potentially large number of feasible sites in flat terrain, could make UPSHPs an interesting option for the future energy transition, not just in Germany but worldwide at sites where underground mining is being abandoned.
本文研究了德国地下关停硬煤矿的地下抽水蓄能水电站的概念。在对如何在技术上实现这一目标进行审查之后,提出了经济可行性分析,特别关注地下水库的成本。对不同的较低(即地下)水库规模和时间套利潜力(峰值/非峰值电价差)进行分析,并通过蒙特卡罗模拟处理两个不同水头高度的成本不确定性。在成本和可接受性方面的研究结果与山区的传统抽水蓄能水电站进行了比较。在技术经济评价的基础上,认为在有利条件下,实现地下抽水蓄能电站在技术上是可行的,在经济上是合理的。更具体地说,管状系统的扩展似乎是最有希望的选择。矿井中的UPSHP电厂可能比传统电厂稍微贵一点,这个结果很大程度上取决于可行的水头高度。然而,显著减少对景观和当地居民的不利影响,以及在平坦地形上潜在的大量可行地点,可能使upshp成为未来能源转型的一个有趣选择,不仅在德国,而且在世界范围内,地下采矿正在被放弃。
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引用次数: 58
Energy Reform in Switzerland: A Quantification of Carbon Taxation and Nuclear Energy Substitution Effects 瑞士的能源改革:碳税和核能替代效应的量化
Pub Date : 2013-01-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2209008
P. Egger, Sergey Nigai
We develop a general equilibrium model of trade with multiple countries and industries in the spirit of Eaton and Kortum (2002) and Bernard, Eaton, Jensen, and Kortum (2003). We structurally estimate the parameters of the model and calibrate it to data on 33 OECD countries and one country that covers the rest of the world. Industries differ by their relative energy intensity and the level of pollution. Accordingly, the implementation of policy instruments to reduce pollution at the country level induces heterogeneous effects across industries within and across countries. We utilize the model to compare alternative environmental tax instruments and to evaluate their consequences for the level of carbon emissions, welfare costs, industry-specific prices and demand in various policy scenarios. Among the latter, we particularly distinguish between policies that are implemented in isolation (by single countries) or en bloc (in groups of countries or even world wide). This study pays specific attention to the implementation of various energy policies, in particular, in Switzerland. Beyond implementation of the Copenhagen Accord pledges, the study quantifies an implementation of extra taxes on carbon emissions at the amount of 1,140 Swiss Francs per ton of carbon and the substitution of nuclear energy production.
我们本着Eaton and Kortum(2002)和Bernard, Eaton, Jensen, and Kortum(2003)的精神,开发了一个与多个国家和行业的贸易一般均衡模型。我们从结构上估计了模型的参数,并将其校准为33个经合组织国家和一个覆盖世界其他地区的国家的数据。不同的工业因其相对能源强度和污染程度而不同。因此,在国家一级执行减少污染的政策工具会在国家内部和国家之间的工业之间产生不同的影响。我们利用该模型来比较不同的环境税收工具,并评估它们在不同政策情景下对碳排放水平、福利成本、行业特定价格和需求的影响。在后者中,我们特别区分孤立地(由单个国家)或整体(在国家集团甚至世界范围内)执行的政策。这项研究特别关注各种能源政策的执行情况,特别是在瑞士。除了履行《哥本哈根协议》的承诺外,该研究还量化了对碳排放征收每吨1140瑞士法郎的额外税以及替代核能生产的实施情况。
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引用次数: 2
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Nuclear Energy (Sustainability) eJournal
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