The main aim of this paper is to investigate the most important determinants of the current account developments in Croatian balance of payments during the 1995-2007 period. The current account analysis is a useful tool for the national economic policy creators, enabling them to explain current account developments and to propose adequate economic policy measures in order to achieve sustainable levels. By using of simple econometrics techniques and methods, the impact of 24 potentially significant macroeconomic variables on current account developments during the period of observation has been evaluated, and finally, set of equations with lower number of variables which has the most significant impact on current account developments in Croatia is presented. The estimations show that consumption, interest rate spread, net foreign assets and gross fixed capital formation has a significant impact, while net FDI inflows and external debt has a non-significant and negative impact on current account. Also, a relatively strong impact of gross fixed capital formation in previous periods (with the time lag of two quarters) is observed. Following the main research results, a set of recommendations is outlined for the purpose of efficient national macroeconomic policy management.
{"title":"Determinants of Current Account Developments in Croatian Balance of Payments","authors":"D. Galinec","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2232779","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2232779","url":null,"abstract":"The main aim of this paper is to investigate the most important determinants of the current account developments in Croatian balance of payments during the 1995-2007 period. The current account analysis is a useful tool for the national economic policy creators, enabling them to explain current account developments and to propose adequate economic policy measures in order to achieve sustainable levels. By using of simple econometrics techniques and methods, the impact of 24 potentially significant macroeconomic variables on current account developments during the period of observation has been evaluated, and finally, set of equations with lower number of variables which has the most significant impact on current account developments in Croatia is presented. The estimations show that consumption, interest rate spread, net foreign assets and gross fixed capital formation has a significant impact, while net FDI inflows and external debt has a non-significant and negative impact on current account. Also, a relatively strong impact of gross fixed capital formation in previous periods (with the time lag of two quarters) is observed. Following the main research results, a set of recommendations is outlined for the purpose of efficient national macroeconomic policy management.","PeriodicalId":285675,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132202206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
J. Jensen, S. Redding, Peter K. Schott, A. Bernard
Recent research in international trade emphasizes the importance of firms' extensive margins for understanding overall patterns of trade as well as how firms respond to specific events such as trade liberalization. In this paper, we use detailed US trade statistics to provide a broad overview of how the margins of trade contribute to variation in US imports and exports across trading partners, types of trade (i.e., arm's length versus related party) and both short and long time horizons. Among other results, we highlight the differential behavior of related-party and arm's-length trade in response to the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
{"title":"The Margins of US Trade","authors":"J. Jensen, S. Redding, Peter K. Schott, A. Bernard","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1602028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1602028","url":null,"abstract":"Recent research in international trade emphasizes the importance of firms' extensive margins for understanding overall patterns of trade as well as how firms respond to specific events such as trade liberalization. In this paper, we use detailed US trade statistics to provide a broad overview of how the margins of trade contribute to variation in US imports and exports across trading partners, types of trade (i.e., arm's length versus related party) and both short and long time horizons. Among other results, we highlight the differential behavior of related-party and arm's-length trade in response to the 1997 Asian financial crisis.","PeriodicalId":285675,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"109 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115119220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper argues that international trade should affect local organization of production in a systematic way. By using the standard Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model we show that the export sector is more likely to demonstrate fragmentation, entrepreneurship and outsourcing compared to the import-competing sector in a typical labor abundant country. Liberal trade regime will promote entrepreneurship in general. This is the first elementary proposition. Local outsourcing also establishes a clear link between trade and productivity. This is the second elementary proposition.
{"title":"International Trade and Local Organization of Production - Two Elementary Propositions","authors":"S. Marjit","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1448516","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1448516","url":null,"abstract":"This paper argues that international trade should affect local organization of production in a systematic way. By using the standard Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model we show that the export sector is more likely to demonstrate fragmentation, entrepreneurship and outsourcing compared to the import-competing sector in a typical labor abundant country. Liberal trade regime will promote entrepreneurship in general. This is the first elementary proposition. Local outsourcing also establishes a clear link between trade and productivity. This is the second elementary proposition.","PeriodicalId":285675,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134198913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper argues that IBSA( India, Brazil, South Africa) as opposed to IBSAC (with China) is a far more coherent group when it comes to WTO negotiations as its interests coincide given the agenda that seeks to free trade asymmetrically with the developed countries having to concede more on market access than developing countries and LDCs will have to. The paper begins with the trade profiles of the IBSAC countries followed by a discussion on the evolution of a developing country alliance at the WTO negotiations. The genesis of IBSAC and the phenomenon of growing regionalism are analysed. The possible emergence of IBSAC as a negotiating coalition at the WTO forums is discussed next. The chapter is followed by an analysis on the potential role of a grouping called IBSAC-plus in WTO negotiations.
{"title":"IBSAC (India, Brazil, South Africa, China): A Potential Developing Country Coalition in WTO Negotiations","authors":"D. Chakraborty, D. Sengupta","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1626717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1626717","url":null,"abstract":"This paper argues that IBSA( India, Brazil, South Africa) as opposed to IBSAC (with China) is a far more coherent group when it comes to WTO negotiations as its interests coincide given the agenda that seeks to free trade asymmetrically with the developed countries having to concede more on market access than developing countries and LDCs will have to. The paper begins with the trade profiles of the IBSAC countries followed by a discussion on the evolution of a developing country alliance at the WTO negotiations. The genesis of IBSAC and the phenomenon of growing regionalism are analysed. The possible emergence of IBSAC as a negotiating coalition at the WTO forums is discussed next. The chapter is followed by an analysis on the potential role of a grouping called IBSAC-plus in WTO negotiations.","PeriodicalId":285675,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133004841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2006-07-14DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2006.00832.x
C. Davidson, S. Matusz, D. Nelson
This paper argues that, as a matter of positive political economy, fairness plays a non-trivial role in the politics of trade policy. Specifically, we first argue that, as a matter of fact, widely held notions of fairness, that are empirically identifiable on the micro level, have macro effects not only in the social and political spheres of life, but even in the economy. Furthermore, as we argue in the second section, these notions systematically constrain public officials in the construction and pursuit of trade policy.
{"title":"Fairness and the Political Economy of Trade","authors":"C. Davidson, S. Matusz, D. Nelson","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9701.2006.00832.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2006.00832.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper argues that, as a matter of positive political economy, fairness plays a non-trivial role in the politics of trade policy. Specifically, we first argue that, as a matter of fact, widely held notions of fairness, that are empirically identifiable on the micro level, have macro effects not only in the social and political spheres of life, but even in the economy. Furthermore, as we argue in the second section, these notions systematically constrain public officials in the construction and pursuit of trade policy.","PeriodicalId":285675,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116295764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Different options contemplated by the negotiators of the Doha Development Agenda are assessed using the Computable General Equilibrium model MIRAGE, the MAcMap and GTAP databases, existing estimates of protection in the services sector as well as estimates of the administrative and transaction costs to be reduced by trade facilitation measures. In all scenarios (with the exception of "free trade"), we consider that the "G90" will not be requested to liberalise. Export subsidies in agriculture are completely eliminated, taking into account the 2013 deadline agreed in Hong Kong in December 2005, and domestic farm support is halved. When an average 36% linear cut in tariffs is implemented in the industrial and in the agricultural sectors (but with a reduction limited to 25% for sensitive products in the latter sector), we end up with a "Round for nothing". At the opposite of the spectrum, free trade in goods would lead to USD 232 bn welfare gains for the world economy (expressed in 2005 terms). There is however more to be gained, for the world economy, from a 25% cut of the barriers in services, than from a 70% tariff cut in agriculture in the North and a 50% cut in the South. On the top of this, a successful trade facilitation agenda would be equivalent to doubling official development aid to Sub-Saharan Africa countries after 2020. In the latter case, how to finance such program remains however a challenging issue.
{"title":"A Quantitative Assessment of the Outcome of the Doha Development Agenda","authors":"Yvan Decreux, L. Fontagné","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1243462","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1243462","url":null,"abstract":"Different options contemplated by the negotiators of the Doha Development Agenda are assessed using the Computable General Equilibrium model MIRAGE, the MAcMap and GTAP databases, existing estimates of protection in the services sector as well as estimates of the administrative and transaction costs to be reduced by trade facilitation measures. In all scenarios (with the exception of \"free trade\"), we consider that the \"G90\" will not be requested to liberalise. Export subsidies in agriculture are completely eliminated, taking into account the 2013 deadline agreed in Hong Kong in December 2005, and domestic farm support is halved. When an average 36% linear cut in tariffs is implemented in the industrial and in the agricultural sectors (but with a reduction limited to 25% for sensitive products in the latter sector), we end up with a \"Round for nothing\". At the opposite of the spectrum, free trade in goods would lead to USD 232 bn welfare gains for the world economy (expressed in 2005 terms). There is however more to be gained, for the world economy, from a 25% cut of the barriers in services, than from a 70% tariff cut in agriculture in the North and a 50% cut in the South. On the top of this, a successful trade facilitation agenda would be equivalent to doubling official development aid to Sub-Saharan Africa countries after 2020. In the latter case, how to finance such program remains however a challenging issue.","PeriodicalId":285675,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"941-944 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130998519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2006-02-01DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2006.00564.x
P. Jensen
This paper re-examines the relationship between entry barriers and home market effects and departs from recent work by using returns to scale as a direct measure of entry barriers as opposed to relying on the level of product differentiation as an indirect proxy for barriers to entry. In contrast to earlier work, results of this study do not indicate a significant relationship between home market effects and entry barriers. In addition, examination of trade costs reveals the importance of these costs in the numeraire sector. These two observations are consistent with the theoretical prediction that home market effects are insignificant in the presence of symmetric trade costs across sectors. Consequently, a more direct measure of barriers to entry and an explicit consideration of trade costs indicate that the link between home market effects and barriers to entry is not as strong as predicted by previous work.
{"title":"Trade, Entry Barriers, and Home Market Effects","authors":"P. Jensen","doi":"10.1111/j.1467-9396.2006.00564.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2006.00564.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper re-examines the relationship between entry barriers and home market effects and departs from recent work by using returns to scale as a direct measure of entry barriers as opposed to relying on the level of product differentiation as an indirect proxy for barriers to entry. In contrast to earlier work, results of this study do not indicate a significant relationship between home market effects and entry barriers. In addition, examination of trade costs reveals the importance of these costs in the numeraire sector. These two observations are consistent with the theoretical prediction that home market effects are insignificant in the presence of symmetric trade costs across sectors. Consequently, a more direct measure of barriers to entry and an explicit consideration of trade costs indicate that the link between home market effects and barriers to entry is not as strong as predicted by previous work.","PeriodicalId":285675,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"64 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121644908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The CISG has been in force in The Netherlands and Aruba since January 1st, 1992. Since then, Dutch courts have made (and are still making) active use of the CISG, for several reasons: For one, The Netherlands is an important trading nation and hence in a large degree dependent on import and export. This commercial traffic admittedly also results in increased legal disputes. Alongside this economic reason, the great familiarity the Dutch have with international sale of goods law is of crucial significance. This is due on the one hand to the fact that The Netherlands was already a Contracting State in the forerunners to the CISG, the ULF (Uniform Law on the Formation of Contracts for the International Sale of Goods) and the ULIS (Uniform Law on the International Sale of Goods), which were very similar in content, but less successful for political reasons. This meant that the introduction of the CISG did not involve substantial revolution in the international goods trade. On the other hand, the similarity of content between the Burgerlijk Wetboek, the Dutch Civil Code, and the ULF, the ULIS and the CISG must be mentioned. In particular they were an important influence on the creation of the internal Dutch Sale of Goods law, which also came into force on January 1st 1992. Hence, in contrast to many other jurisdictions in Contracting States which only apply the CISG with much hesitation, Dutch courts cannot be said to have a general “fear” of the CISG.The frequency of application, however, provides no indication as to the quality of the decisions. The purpose of this paper is to examine to what extent Dutch case law conforms with the scholarship and case law of other states as well as to what extent it infringes upon the uniform interpretation postulated in accordance with Art. 7 (1) CISG. Knowledge of the “peculiarities” of a foreign - here the Dutch - jurisdiction is not just of great value academically, but also for practitioners concluding sales transactions with The Netherlands.
{"title":"Application of the CISG in Dutch Courts","authors":"A. Janssen","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1595994","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1595994","url":null,"abstract":"The CISG has been in force in The Netherlands and Aruba since January 1st, 1992. Since then, Dutch courts have made (and are still making) active use of the CISG, for several reasons: For one, The Netherlands is an important trading nation and hence in a large degree dependent on import and export. This commercial traffic admittedly also results in increased legal disputes. Alongside this economic reason, the great familiarity the Dutch have with international sale of goods law is of crucial significance. This is due on the one hand to the fact that The Netherlands was already a Contracting State in the forerunners to the CISG, the ULF (Uniform Law on the Formation of Contracts for the International Sale of Goods) and the ULIS (Uniform Law on the International Sale of Goods), which were very similar in content, but less successful for political reasons. This meant that the introduction of the CISG did not involve substantial revolution in the international goods trade. On the other hand, the similarity of content between the Burgerlijk Wetboek, the Dutch Civil Code, and the ULF, the ULIS and the CISG must be mentioned. In particular they were an important influence on the creation of the internal Dutch Sale of Goods law, which also came into force on January 1st 1992. Hence, in contrast to many other jurisdictions in Contracting States which only apply the CISG with much hesitation, Dutch courts cannot be said to have a general “fear” of the CISG.The frequency of application, however, provides no indication as to the quality of the decisions. The purpose of this paper is to examine to what extent Dutch case law conforms with the scholarship and case law of other states as well as to what extent it infringes upon the uniform interpretation postulated in accordance with Art. 7 (1) CISG. Knowledge of the “peculiarities” of a foreign - here the Dutch - jurisdiction is not just of great value academically, but also for practitioners concluding sales transactions with The Netherlands.","PeriodicalId":285675,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122706306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The analysis of international trade procedures has long been regarded as an important aspect of trade facilitation. For the past decade or so, efforts have been made to utilize formal notations for this analysis, to help highlight points of congestion and redundancy. Recent innovations in e-commerce technologies suggest that an additional step may be possible: generic, electronic trade procedures that can be easily downloaded and installed by a wide variety of small to medium sized trading parties. This would make safe, trustworthy global commerce widely available to any company with a minimum investment of office computers and network access. This paper has addresses an important technical step in this process: the compatibility between UML, a popular analysis notation for trade procedures, and DPN's a design representation that allows for the automatic computerization of the trade procedure. This convertability among representations, allowing a smooth development methodology, illustrated and supported in the design and prototyping tool, InterProcs, which is also briefly described.
{"title":"Analysis and Design of International Trade Procedures: UML to DPN","authors":"Ronald M. Lee","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1975154","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1975154","url":null,"abstract":"The analysis of international trade procedures has long been regarded as an important aspect of trade facilitation. For the past decade or so, efforts have been made to utilize formal notations for this analysis, to help highlight points of congestion and redundancy. Recent innovations in e-commerce technologies suggest that an additional step may be possible: generic, electronic trade procedures that can be easily downloaded and installed by a wide variety of small to medium sized trading parties. This would make safe, trustworthy global commerce widely available to any company with a minimum investment of office computers and network access. This paper has addresses an important technical step in this process: the compatibility between UML, a popular analysis notation for trade procedures, and DPN's a design representation that allows for the automatic computerization of the trade procedure. This convertability among representations, allowing a smooth development methodology, illustrated and supported in the design and prototyping tool, InterProcs, which is also briefly described.","PeriodicalId":285675,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2001-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121759229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
These Research Handbooks discuss the TRIPS Agreement and enforcement of intellectual property rights in the World Trade Organization. These books will be useful sources for advanced scholars of international trade and intellectual property law.
{"title":"Review of Research Handbook on the Protection of Intellectual Property Under WTO Rules & Research Handbook on the Interpretation and Enforcement of Intellectual Property Under WTO Rules","authors":"Benjamin J. Keele","doi":"10.31228/osf.io/48c6h","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31228/osf.io/48c6h","url":null,"abstract":"These Research Handbooks discuss the TRIPS Agreement and enforcement of intellectual property rights in the World Trade Organization. These books will be useful sources for advanced scholars of international trade and intellectual property law.","PeriodicalId":285675,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125428371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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