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Foreign Risk - Domestic Problem: Capital Allocation and Performance under Political Instability 国外风险-国内问题:政治不稳定下的资本配置与绩效
Pub Date : 2016-08-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2056114
We argue that firms with foreign operations misallocate capital and underperform when they face political instability abroad. We develop and test a dynamic model of firm capital allocation under foreign political instability. The model shows that as a political regime becomes less stable, independently of whether the regime becomes less business-friendly or more business-friendly, firms invest sub-optimally (firms either over-invest or under-invest), and their marginal qs diverge further from an optimal level. Using elections and textual analysis of local media during national elections, we construct a novel index of political instability. We find that U.S. firms and industries with a greater exposure to election-induced political instability experience disruptions of investment efficiency which lead to lower valuations and lower Total Factor Productivity. Therefore, international trade is a significant conduit of foreign political instability into U.S. markets.
我们认为,拥有海外业务的公司在面临海外政治不稳定时,资本配置不当,表现不佳。本文建立并检验了国外政治不稳定条件下企业资本配置的动态模型。该模型表明,当一个政治制度变得不那么稳定时,无论该制度变得对商业不那么友好还是对商业更友好,企业的投资都是次优的(企业要么投资过度,要么投资不足),它们的边际qs与最优水平进一步偏离。利用选举和全国选举期间地方媒体的文本分析,我们构建了一个新的政治不稳定指数。我们发现,受选举引发的政治不稳定影响较大的美国公司和行业,其投资效率会受到干扰,从而导致估值降低和全要素生产率降低。因此,国际贸易是外国政治不稳定因素进入美国市场的重要渠道。
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引用次数: 0
Trade and Cities 贸易与城市
Pub Date : 2014-05-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2149567
Many developing countries display remarkably high degrees of urban concentration that are incommensurate with their levels of urbanization. The cost of excessively high levels of urban concentration can be very high in terms of overpopulation, congestion, and productivity growth. One strand of the theoretical literature suggests that such high levels of concentration may be the result of restrictive trade policies that trigger forces of agglomeration. Another strand of the literature, however, points out that trade liberalization itself may exacerbate urban concentration by favoring the further growth of those large urban centers that have better access to international markets. The empirical basis for judging this question has been weak so far; in the existing literature, trade policies are poorly measured (or are not measured, as when trade volumes are used spuriously). Here, new disaggregated tariff measures are used to empirically test the hypothesis. A treatment-and-control analysis of pre- versus post-liberalization performance of the cities is also employed in liberalizing and non-liberalizing countries. It is found that (controlling for the largest cities that have ports and, thus, have better access to external markets) liberalizing trade leads to a reduction in urban concentration.
许多发展中国家的城市集中度非常高,这与其城市化水平不相称。就人口过剩、交通拥堵和生产力增长而言,过高的城市集中度的代价可能非常高。理论文献的一条线索表明,如此高的集中度可能是限制性贸易政策引发集聚力量的结果。然而,另一种文献指出,贸易自由化本身可能会加剧城市集中,因为它有利于那些更容易进入国际市场的大型城市中心的进一步增长。迄今为止,判断这个问题的经验基础还很薄弱;在现有文献中,贸易政策没有得到很好的衡量(或者没有得到衡量,比如当贸易额被虚假地使用时)。本文采用新的分类关税措施对这一假设进行实证检验。对自由化和非自由化国家的城市自由化前后表现的待遇和控制分析也被采用。研究发现,(控制那些拥有港口并因此能更好地进入外部市场的最大城市)贸易自由化导致城市集中度的降低。
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引用次数: 26
Enabling Pulses Revolution in India 促成印度的豆类革命
Pub Date : 2013-03-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2240347
Historically India is the largest producer, consumer and importer of pulses. Although it is the world’s largest pulses producer, Indiahas been importing 3-4 million tons (MT)of pulses every year to meet its domestic demand. However, during the last decade, growth in pulses production has increased significantly. India achieved a record output in pulses production at 18.1 MT in 2010-11 with an all-time high production achieved in chickpea (8.25 MT), moong (1.82MT) and urad (1.74 MT). Even though pulses production increased significantly during the last decade, continuing the faster growth is a bigger challenge for researchers, extension agencies and policy makers. For some crops such as oilseeds, earlier experience shows most of the success is short lived if we don’t align production technology with policy support (Reddy 2009). Still, the productivity of pulses in India (694 kg/ha) is lower than most of the major pulse producing countries and yield potential attained at research stations and on-farm demonstrations. The brief discusses strategies followed to increase pulses production in the last decade and the way forward to sustain the increased production. It also examines the factors behind the fast growth in production of pulses in recent years with chickpea in Andhra Pradesh as an example. Introduction of chickpea crop into non-traditional areas like south Indian states is an example of technological and institutional breakthrough to be replicated in other crops. Introduction of chickpea into black cotton soils, availability of plenty of rabi fallow lands, adoption of short duration and high yielding varieties like KAK- 2 and JG-11, and well developed land lease market to facilitate large scale mechanization to cope with labor shortage in villages are some of the contributing factors for the expansion of chickpea area into south Indian states. It highlighted the importance of (i) successful government programs like National Food Security Mission in increasing pulses production, (ii) development and distribution of improved seed through semi-formal seed systems and farmers participatory varietal selection (FPVS) , (iii)emphasis on abiotic and biotic stress management to increase stability in area and yields through integrated approach (iv) increased availability of subsidised improved seed, micronutrients like sulphur, gypsum, popularization of herbicides and farm machinery to cope with labor shortages, and lastly (v) developing market information systems and warehouse infrastructure, enhancing credit availability, establishing markets with state-of-the-art post harvest management and cold storages
历史上,印度是最大的豆类生产国、消费国和进口国。虽然印度是世界上最大的豆类生产国,但印度每年要进口300 - 400万吨豆类来满足国内需求。然而,在过去十年中,豆类产量的增长显著增加。2010-11年,印度豆类产量达到创纪录的1810万吨,其中鹰嘴豆(8.25万吨)、月豆(1.82万吨)和乌拉德(1.74万吨)的产量创历史新高。尽管豆类产量在过去十年中显著增加,但对研究人员、推广机构和政策制定者来说,保持更快的增长是一个更大的挑战。对于一些作物,如油籽,早期的经验表明,如果我们不将生产技术与政策支持结合起来,大多数成功都是短暂的(Reddy 2009)。尽管如此,印度的豆类产量(694公斤/公顷)仍低于大多数主要豆类生产国,并且在研究站和农场示范中实现了产量潜力。简报讨论了过去十年增加豆类产量所采取的战略以及维持增产的前进道路。它还以安得拉邦的鹰嘴豆为例,探讨了近年来豆类生产快速增长背后的因素。将鹰嘴豆作物引入印度南部各州等非传统地区是技术和制度突破的一个例子,可以在其他作物中复制。鹰嘴豆在黑棉土上的引进,大量的rabi休耕地的可用性,KAK- 2和JG-11等短耕高产品种的采用,以及发达的土地租赁市场促进大规模机械化以解决农村劳动力短缺问题,是鹰嘴豆在印度南部各州扩张的一些因素。它强调了以下方面的重要性:(i)国家粮食安全任务等成功的政府项目在增加豆类产量方面的重要性;(ii)通过半正式种子系统和农民参与式品种选择(FPVS)开发和分发改良种子;(iii)强调非生物和生物胁迫管理,通过综合方法提高面积和产量的稳定性;(iv)增加获得补贴的改良种子、硫、石膏等微量营养素的供应;推广除草剂和农业机械以应付劳动力短缺,最后(五)发展市场信息系统和仓库基础设施,增加信贷供应,建立具有最先进的收获后管理和冷藏的市场
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引用次数: 7
Greater Coherence in Global Economic Policymaking: Progress and Prospect 加强全球经济决策的一致性:进展与前景
Pub Date : 2013-03-21 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-40913-4_4
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引用次数: 1
Letting the Sun Shine in at the WTO: How Transparency Brings the Trading System to Life 《让阳光照进世贸组织:透明度如何使贸易体系焕发生机》
Pub Date : 2013-03-06 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2231394
Without transparency, trade agreements are just words on paper. Transparency as disclosure allows economic actors and trading partners to see how rules are implanted; transparency in decision-making ensures fairness and peer review. In the first section of this paper, I discuss the logic of transparency in general and the motivation for its use in the trading system. Considerable information on WTO transparency mechanisms is available in the Minutes and annual reports of the various WTO bodies, and in the Director-General's annual overview of the trading system, but comparative analysis is not easy. In the second section, therefore, I develop a framework in which different transparency mechanisms can be compared to each other using the metaphor of three generations in the evolution of transparency in the trading system as a means of explaining how transparency works in the WTO. For sunshine to work, at least two things must happen. Information must be made available, and Members have to use it. Probing the extent to which Members comply with their notification obligations, in the third section, and their efforts to improve the notification process, allow an assessment of their commitment to being transparent. In the fourth section I consider how WTO committees are used to ensure that Members are accountable for their commitments, including to notify. Since the committees differ, I use the metaphor of the great pyramid of the legal order to compare committees to each other. Assessment of whether these mechanisms work underpins observations in the conclusion on whether more sunshine is needed, and efforts underway to improve existing mechanisms.
没有透明度,贸易协定就只是纸上谈兵。作为披露的透明度使经济行为体和贸易伙伴能够看到规则是如何被植入的;决策透明确保公平和同行评议。在本文的第一部分中,我讨论了透明度的一般逻辑及其在交易系统中使用的动机。在世贸组织各机构的会议纪要和年度报告以及总干事对贸易制度的年度概述中,提供了关于世贸组织透明度机制的大量资料,但进行比较分析并不容易。因此,在第二部分中,我开发了一个框架,在这个框架中,不同的透明度机制可以相互比较,使用三代人在贸易体系透明度演变中的比喻,作为解释透明度在世贸组织中如何运作的一种手段。要让阳光发挥作用,至少有两件事必须发生。必须提供信息,并且成员必须使用这些信息。在第三节中探讨各成员履行其通知义务的程度及其改进通知程序的努力,可以评估其对透明度的承诺。在第四节中,我将考虑如何利用世贸组织委员会来确保成员对其承诺负责,包括通知。由于委员会各不相同,我用法律秩序的大金字塔来比喻委员会之间的差异。对这些机制是否有效的评估支持了结论中关于是否需要更多日照的观察,以及正在进行的改进现有机制的努力。
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引用次数: 39
Multinational Firms and the Structure of International Trade 跨国公司与国际贸易结构
Pub Date : 2013-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-444-54314-1.00002-1
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引用次数: 403
The Roots of Export Diversification 出口多样化的根源
Pub Date : 2012-12-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2193650
Countries with diversi ed export baskets take advantage of various bene ts, which are said to foster and stabilize economic growth directly and through indirect channels (e.g. reduced income volatility, positive externalities, spillover e ects). This is especially important in the context of developing economies. However, identifying the true determinants of export diversifi cation is di cult as there exists no comprehensive theoretical or empirical framework to capture all potential factors in their entirety. This paper uses Bayesian Model Averaging to uncover the true long-term roots of export diversi cation among 43 potential determinants,and thus 2 potential models. Our results suggest that only four factors are important in predicting export diversi cation levels over the long run: natural resource rents as a percentage of GDP (100 % posterior inclusion probability), primary school enrollment rates (96 %), population size (25 %), and foreign direct investment levels (17 %). Many prominent candidates turn out to be insigni cant in determining diversi cation levels. Neither policy-related variables (e.g. tari s, freedom from trade regulations or democracy) nor macroeconomic factors (such as trade openness, terms of trade or domestic investment levels) nor geographical remoteness (whether the country is an island or landlocked) play a role. Various robustness checks con rm our results.
拥有多样化出口篮子的国家可以利用各种好处,据说这些好处可以直接或通过间接渠道促进和稳定经济增长(例如减少收入波动、积极的外部性、溢出效应)。这在发展中经济体的背景下尤为重要。然而,确定出口多样化的真正决定因素是困难的,因为不存在全面的理论或经验框架来全面捕捉所有潜在因素。本文利用贝叶斯平均模型在43个潜在决定因素中揭示了出口多元化的真正长期根源,从而得到了2个潜在模型。我们的研究结果表明,在预测长期出口多元化水平时,只有四个因素是重要的:自然资源租金占GDP的百分比(100%后验纳入概率)、小学入学率(96%)、人口规模(25%)和外国直接投资水平(17%)。许多杰出的候选人在决定多元化水平方面显得无足轻重。与政策相关的变量(如关税、不受贸易管制的自由或民主)、宏观经济因素(如贸易开放程度、贸易条件或国内投资水平)和地理位置偏远(该国是岛国还是内陆国)都不起作用。各种鲁棒性检查证实了我们的结果。
{"title":"The Roots of Export Diversification","authors":"Michael Jetter, Andrés Ramírez Hassan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2193650","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2193650","url":null,"abstract":"Countries with diversi ed export baskets take advantage of various bene ts, which are said to foster and stabilize economic growth directly and through indirect channels (e.g. reduced income volatility, positive externalities, spillover e ects). This is especially important in the context of developing economies. However, identifying the true determinants of export diversifi cation is di cult as there exists no comprehensive theoretical or empirical framework to capture all potential factors in their entirety. This paper uses Bayesian Model Averaging to uncover the true long-term roots of export diversi cation among 43 potential determinants,and thus 2 potential models. Our results suggest that only four factors are important in predicting export diversi cation levels over the long run: natural resource rents as a percentage of GDP (100 % posterior inclusion probability), primary school enrollment rates (96 %), population size (25 %), and foreign direct investment levels (17 %). Many prominent candidates turn out to be insigni cant in determining diversi cation levels. Neither policy-related variables (e.g. tari s, freedom from trade regulations or democracy) nor macroeconomic factors (such as trade openness, terms of trade or domestic investment levels) nor geographical remoteness (whether the country is an island or landlocked) play a role. Various robustness checks con rm our results.","PeriodicalId":285675,"journal":{"name":"PSN: International Trade Policy (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129955170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Trade, Globalization and Economic Policy 贸易、全球化和经济政策
Pub Date : 2012-12-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2191073
This article places international trade law in the context of the rapid increase in economic growth and globalization over the last 60 years that is reducing poverty and expanding the middle class in most nations of the world. This economic and cultural integration of markets and peoples has been stimulated by two major factors: first, the increase in technological innovation in transport, information technology and manufacturing processes and second, the removal of legal barriers to the flow of goods, capital and knowledge around the globe stimulated by successive rounds of trade negotiations at the GATT and later the WTO.The arguments for and against globalization are analyzed within the context of the history of economic ideas and with an understanding that there are tradeoffs because not all people benefit from these rapid changes. While technological innovation spurs economic growth, the full benefits cannot be realized unless technology and the resulting products are widely available through trade. The world trade regime has evolved to significantly remove barriers to trade, provide a forum to settle trade disputes, and develop uniform legal standards to resolve disputes. The chapter forecasts a further increase in the trend toward one world market, the convergence of wage rates for manufactured products and many services, the continued rise of the middle class in emerging economies and a movement toward greater international governance driven by increased pressure for uniform laws to reduce uncertainty and for international forums to reduce inconsistency in application.
本文将国际贸易法置于过去60年来经济增长和全球化快速增长的背景下,这在世界上大多数国家减少了贫困,扩大了中产阶级。市场和人民的这种经济和文化一体化受到两个主要因素的刺激:第一,运输、信息技术和制造过程方面技术革新的增加;第二,在关贸总协定和后来的世贸组织连续几轮贸易谈判的推动下,消除了货物、资本和知识在全球流动的法律障碍。支持和反对全球化的论点在经济思想史的背景下进行分析,并理解存在权衡,因为并非所有人都能从这些快速变化中受益。虽然技术创新刺激经济增长,但除非技术和由此产生的产品通过贸易广泛获得,否则无法实现充分的利益。世界贸易制度已经发展到大大消除贸易壁垒,提供一个解决贸易争端的论坛,并制定统一的法律标准来解决争端。本章预测,一个世界市场的趋势将进一步加强,制成品和许多服务的工资率将趋同,新兴经济体中产阶级的持续崛起,以及在统一法律减少不确定性和国际论坛减少应用不一致性的压力增加的推动下,走向更大的国际治理的运动。
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引用次数: 0
Trade Liberalization and Welfare Inequality: A Demand‐Based Approach 贸易自由化与福利不平等:基于需求的方法
Pub Date : 2012-12-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9442.2012.01724.x
There is strong evidence that different income groups consume different bundles of goods. This evidence suggests that trade liberalization can affect welfare inequality within a country via changes in the relative prices of goods consumed by different income groups (the price effect). In this paper, I develop a framework that enables us to explore the role of the price effect in determining welfare inequality. There are two core elements in the model. First, I assume that heterogenous in income consumers share identical but nonhomothetic preferences. Secondly, I consider a monopolistic competition environment that leads to variable markups affected by trade and trade costs. I find that trade liberalization does affect the prices of different goods differently and, as a result, can benefit some income classes more than others. In particular, I show that the relative welfare of the rich with respect to that of the poor has a hump shape as a function of trade costs.
有确凿证据表明,不同收入群体消费不同的商品组合。这些证据表明,贸易自由化可以通过改变不同收入群体消费的商品的相对价格(价格效应)来影响一个国家内部的福利不平等。在本文中,我建立了一个框架,使我们能够探讨价格效应在决定福利不平等中的作用。该模型有两个核心要素。首先,我假设收入不同的消费者具有相同但非同调的偏好。其次,我考虑了一种垄断竞争环境,这种环境会导致受贸易和贸易成本影响的可变标价。我发现,贸易自由化确实会对不同商品的价格产生不同的影响,因此,一些收入阶层会比另一些收入阶层更受益。特别是,我发现富人相对于穷人的相对福利在贸易成本的作用下呈驼峰状。
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引用次数: 11
Preferential Trade and Investment Agreements and the Trade/Investment Divide: Is the Whole More than the Sum of Its Parts? 优惠贸易和投资协定与贸易/投资鸿沟:整体大于部分之和吗?
Pub Date : 2012-11-23 DOI: 10.5771/9783845250533-91
Since the 1990s, the number of preferential trade agreements has exponentially risen – many of which encompass provisions relating to the regulation of foreign investment. By the end of 2010, over 300 of such preferential trade and investment agreements [PTIAs] were in existence. This paper looks at how and why PTIAs combine trade- and investment-related provisions and analyzes the impact of that combination on both international trade and international investment law. The author has opted to approach this issue from three angles: first, the differences between PTIAs and classic bilateral investment treaties [BITs] are examined in order to determine which, if any, (dis)advantages are created through the establishment of a regime of international investment law based on PTIAs as compared to regulating investment under separate agreements. The second angle focuses on the question whether PTIAs are heralding a more unified international economic regime through the integration of international investment and trade law; or whether this combination creates unnecessary friction in the light of the different objectives of each respective field. It will be argued that the structural differences between the international trade and investment regime do not necessarily render the quest for unity illusory. The third and final angle assesses the potential implications of a unified approach on the investment regime. More specifically it is submitted that PTIAs could bring about a more comprehensive regulation of foreign direct investment that (i) is less focused on the post-establishment phase of investments, thereby allowing for coordination between trade and investment rules regulating the liberalisation of the services market, and (ii) is better able to balance State/investor rights and duties, with special focus on policy coherence, regulatory flexibility and facilitating development.
自1990年代以来,优惠贸易协定的数目呈指数增长,其中许多协定都包括有关管制外国投资的规定。截至2010年底,已有300多个这样的优惠贸易和投资协定。本文着眼于ptia如何以及为什么将与贸易和投资有关的条款结合起来,并分析这种结合对国际贸易法和国际投资法的影响。作者选择从三个角度来探讨这个问题:首先,考察了ptia与经典双边投资条约(bit)之间的差异,以确定建立基于ptia的国际投资法制度,与在单独协议下规范投资相比,会产生哪些(不利)优势。第二个角度侧重于ptia是否通过国际投资和贸易法的一体化预示着一个更统一的国际经济制度的问题;或者,鉴于每个领域的不同目标,这种组合是否会造成不必要的摩擦。有人认为,国际贸易和投资体制之间的结构性差异并不一定会使寻求统一成为幻想。第三个也是最后一个角度评估统一方法对投资制度的潜在影响。更具体地说,外资直接投资协定可以对外国直接投资实行更全面的管制,这种管制(i)较少侧重于投资的建立后阶段,从而使管理服务市场自由化的贸易和投资规则得以协调,(ii)能够更好地平衡国家/投资者的权利和义务,特别注重政策的一致性、管制的灵活性和促进发展。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
PSN: International Trade Policy (Topic)
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