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Sensitivity Analysis of Portfolio Credit Derivatives by Conditional Monte Carlo Simulation 基于条件蒙特卡罗模拟的组合信用衍生品敏感性分析
Pub Date : 2019-06-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3404231
Lei Lei, Yijie Peng, M. Fu, Jianqiang Hu
We study sensitivity analysis of portfolio credit derivatives, including basket default swaps and collateralized debt obligations. An unbiased estimator is derived using conditional Monte Carlo for sensitivities with respect to systemic parameters (parameters that influence some or all the entities). Copula-based methods are used to model the joint distribution of the default times. Simulation experiments demonstrate the advantages of the proposed derivative estimator over other methods.
我们研究了组合信用衍生品的敏感性分析,包括一篮子违约掉期和债务抵押债券。对系统参数(影响部分或全部实体的参数)的灵敏度,使用条件蒙特卡罗导出了无偏估计量。使用基于copula的方法对默认时间的联合分布进行建模。仿真实验证明了该方法相对于其他方法的优越性。
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引用次数: 2
The TSLL Model: A Simple, Parametric Fit for the Implied Volatilities of VIX Options Inspired by the Shifted Lognormal Model TSLL模型:受移对数正态模型启发的VIX期权隐含波动率的简单参数拟合
Pub Date : 2019-06-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3403126
Michael Kamal
The standard shifted lognormal model, defined by just two parameters, provides a remarkably good fit to the market implied volatilities of VIX options.

Inspired by an analytic approximation derived by Lee and Wang, we propose a simple, intuitive extension that provides better empirical fits while retaining analytical tractability.

In essence, by introducing a third parameter that controls the tilt of the surface beyond the shifted lognormal baseline we can better control the behavior of the fit for large strikes. We call this extended model TSLL: tilted and shifted lognormal-like.

Finally, we suggest an alternative parameterization in terms of the ATM volatility, volatility floor and tilt parameter that is better suited to help set cutoffs and to rule out arbitrage violations.
仅由两个参数定义的标准移位对数正态模型非常适合VIX期权的市场隐含波动率。受Lee和Wang导出的解析近似的启发,我们提出了一个简单、直观的扩展,在保留分析可追溯性的同时提供更好的经验拟合。从本质上讲,通过引入第三个参数来控制超越移对数正态基线的表面倾斜,我们可以更好地控制大打击的拟合行为。我们称这种扩展模型为TSLL:倾斜和移位的lognormal-like。最后,我们提出了一个关于ATM波动率、波动率下限和倾斜参数的替代参数化,它更适合于帮助设置截止点和排除套利违规。
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引用次数: 0
Oil And Asset Classes Implied Volatilities: Dynamic Connectedness And Investment Strategies 石油和资产类别隐含波动率:动态连通性和投资策略
Pub Date : 2019-06-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3399996
N. Antonakakis, J. Cuñado, G. Filis, David Gabauer, F. D. de Gracia
Building on the increased interest in the spillover effects among oil prices and other financial assets, this paper examines dynamic connectedness and contagion effects of their implied volatility shocks. We then proceed to the examination of the optimal hedging strategies and optimal portfolio weights for implied volatility portfolios between oil and financial assets. The results suggest that oil implied volatility (OVX) is a net volatility receiver of shocks, whereas implied volatilities indices by the stock markets (mature or emerging) are net volatility transmitters. Hedge ratios indicate that VIX is the least useful implied volatility index to hedge against oil implied volatility. Finally, we show that investors can benefit substantially by adjusting their portfolios based on the dynamic weights and hedge ratios obtained from the dynamic conditional correlation models, although a trade-off exists between the level of risk reduction and portfolio profitability.
基于对石油价格和其他金融资产溢出效应的日益关注,本文研究了其隐含波动率冲击的动态连通性和传染效应。然后,我们继续检查石油和金融资产之间隐含波动率投资组合的最优对冲策略和最优投资组合权重。结果表明,石油隐含波动率(OVX)是冲击的净波动率接受者,而股票市场(成熟或新兴)的隐含波动率指数是净波动率发射器。对冲比率表明,VIX是对冲石油隐含波动率最没用的隐含波动率指数。最后,我们表明,尽管风险降低水平与投资组合盈利能力之间存在权衡关系,但投资者可以根据动态条件相关模型获得的动态权重和对冲比率调整投资组合,从而获得实质性收益。
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引用次数: 17
Metals' Price Elasticity of Normalized Excess Supply 常态化过剩供给下的金属价格弹性
Pub Date : 2019-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3696499
Ali Bashiri, Y. Lawryshyn
We extend the model of Bashiri and Lawryshyn (2018) to the metals market and measure the significance of the relationship between metals' prices and normalized excess supply. We utilize Commodity Exchange prices, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics production and consumption data, as well as inventory data from the London Metal Exchange, Commodity Exchange, and Shanghai Futures Exchange from 1997 to 2017. We find significant relationships for copper, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, while aluminum exhibits no relationship due to deficient inventory data. We find that during certain intervals of the 2009-2011 period, there exist deviations from the long-term relationship for the metals' prices possibly due to speculation, financialization, price stickiness, and increase of liquidity as a result of central banks' quantitative easing programs.
我们将Bashiri和lawyshyn(2018)的模型扩展到金属市场,并衡量金属价格与正常化过剩供应之间关系的显著性。我们使用商品交易所价格、世界金属统计局生产和消费数据,以及伦敦金属交易所、商品交易所和上海期货交易所1997年至2017年的库存数据。我们发现铜、镍、锌、铅和锡之间存在显著的关系,而铝由于库存数据不足而没有关系。我们发现,在2009-2011年期间的某些时间段内,金属价格与长期关系存在偏差,可能是由于投机、金融化、价格粘性以及央行量化宽松计划导致的流动性增加。
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引用次数: 0
Hedging Strategy Influencing Derivative Investment on Investors 对冲策略对投资者衍生品投资的影响
Pub Date : 2019-05-20 DOI: 10.31142/IJTSRD23769
D. Rekha, Lavanya N.
The paper titled “Hedging Strategy influence Derivative Investment on Investors�?. Generally Speaking in India Derivative contracts have not been majorly focused by investors, because of certain myths in the minds of people. Therefore Derivative Investment is not taken largely as on investment option by Individual investors. Many authors stated that derivative market is the marketplace in which traders come to exchange risks. In worldwide economy with divergent hazard exposures, derivatives permit businesses and traders to defend themselves from rapid price fluctuations and negative events. The aim of the article is to identify the major risk and hedging strategy in derivative market. In Derivative Contracts as a high risk that are Market risk, Liquidity risk, Credit risk, Counterparty risk, Legal risk and Transaction Risk. Pricing risk and systematic risk is also very important. Derivative investor must analyze the market and make the decisions while trading this will undergoes the uncertainty. Derivatives plays a major role for minimizing the risk involved in the marking an investment in futures contracts by expecting to get good result. The investors should also invest in options contracts which help to reduce the risk by use of hedging strategy. Hedging strategy is used for reducing the risk and maximization of profits. Though the futures contracts are subjected to high level the loss can be reduced to an extent by using the hedging strategy.
本文的题目是“套期保值策略对投资者衍生品投资的影响”。一般来说,在印度,由于人们心中的某些神话,衍生品合约并没有受到投资者的主要关注。因此,衍生投资在很大程度上不被个人投资者视为一种投资选择。许多作者指出,衍生品市场是交易者交换风险的市场。在具有不同风险敞口的全球经济中,衍生品使企业和交易者能够保护自己免受快速价格波动和负面事件的影响。本文的目的是识别衍生品市场的主要风险和对冲策略。衍生品合同中作为高风险的是市场风险、流动性风险、信用风险、交易对手风险、法律风险和交易风险。定价风险和系统风险也很重要。衍生品投资者在交易时必须对市场进行分析和决策,这将经历不确定性。衍生品在为期货合约投资打标以期望获得良好结果的过程中,扮演着最小化风险的重要角色。投资者还应投资期权合约,利用套期保值策略降低风险。套期保值策略是为了降低风险,实现利润最大化。虽然期货合约价格较高,但采用套期保值策略可以在一定程度上减少损失。
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引用次数: 2
Bias Reduction in Nonlinear and Dynamic Panels in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence 存在截面依赖的非线性和动态面板的偏压减小
Pub Date : 2019-05-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2157212
Cavit Pakel
Fixed effects estimation of nonlinear dynamic panel models is subject to the incidental parameter issue, leading to a biased asymptotic distribution. While this problem has been studied extensively in the literature, a general analysis allowing for both serial and cross-sectional dependence is missing. In this paper we investigate the large-N,T theory of the profile and integrated likelihood estimators, allowing for dependence across both dimensions. We show that under stronger dependence types the asymptotic bias disappears, but a Op(1∕T) small-sample bias remains. We provide bias correction and inference methods, and also obtain primitive conditions for asymptotic normality under various dependence settings.
非线性动态面板模型的固定效应估计受附带参数问题的影响,导致其渐近分布有偏。虽然这个问题已经在文献中进行了广泛的研究,但缺少一个允许串行和横断面依赖的一般分析。在本文中,我们研究了剖面的大n,T理论和集成似然估计,允许在两个维度上的依赖。我们证明了在较强的依赖类型下,渐近偏差消失,但仍然存在Op(1∕T)小样本偏差。给出了偏差校正和推理方法,并得到了各种依赖条件下渐近正态性的基本条件。
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引用次数: 6
Smiling Hyperbolas 微笑的双曲线
Pub Date : 2019-05-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2878034
A. Polishchuk
We propose using hyperbolic splines for arbitrage free interpolation of implied volatilities in the strike domain. Hyperbolic splines allow for perfect fit to input data and have carry computational cost since there is no root finding or calibration: spline parameters are expressed directly in terms of elementary mathematical functions. We demonstrate that hyperbolic splines work just as well in the extrapolation region providing a tool for fixing wings produced by arbitrage prone methods. Finally we present a family of global hyperbolic splines that have time-dependent extensions with an intuitive interpretation in terms of local diffusions coupled with a jump to default.
我们提出了使用双曲样条对走向域的隐含波动率进行无套利插值。双曲样条可以完美地拟合输入数据,并且由于没有查找根或校准,因此具有计算成本:样条参数直接用初等数学函数表示。我们证明了双曲样条在外推区域同样有效,为固定由套利倾向方法产生的机翼提供了一种工具。最后,我们给出了一类全局双曲样条,它们具有随时间变化的扩展,并能直观地解释局部扩散与跳跃到默认值的关系。
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引用次数: 0
Equity Autocalls and Vanna Negative Carries: Pricing and Hedging with a Simple Add-On 股票自动赎回和Vanna负持有:定价和对冲与一个简单的附加组件
Pub Date : 2019-05-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3383122
G. Salon
Autocall products: a toxic best-seller. Over the past twenty years, the autocall pay-off has been the most traded exotic equity product. Outstandingly popular, it is mainly sold to final customers in Europe and Asia trough notes: its average yearly volumes reaches 100 billion euros. Nevertheless, it is responsible for major losses suffered by banks’ Exotic trading desks. Roughly, when the spot remains in a [80%,105%] area around the recall barrier, daily carry loss is worth 1 to 3 basis points (depending on the product complexity, as several variations exist). Indeed, it shows a strong model-dependency due to the cancellation feature: when the spot moves, books need dynamic rehedging via vanilla options, forward contracts, correlation products. As such, it requires the use of a pricing model which correctly combines market data dynamics (volatility, repo, equity correlations, quanto drifts…) and spot dynamic, in order to price properly the cost of daily rehedging. In practice, building a pricing model complex enough to calibrate the relevant covariances while remaining numerically stable and computationally reasonable has proved to be a very serious challenge. Not mentioning ultimately the need for comprehensive interpretations of outputs. Escaping this issue, we exhibit here, a convenient way to price and hedge autocalls toxic behaviors through an additional and corrective pay-off. There are approximations throughout the building of such an approach that have been tested numerically and justified qualitatively. Nonetheless, this is cheaper in terms of model complexity and development, and it provides a comprehensive and efficient pricing scheme combined with a hedging strategy which tackles the issue of negative carries generated by an autocall replication strategy.
Autocall产品:有毒的畅销产品。在过去的二十年里,自动赎回期权一直是交易量最大的外来股票产品。它非常受欢迎,主要通过票据销售给欧洲和亚洲的最终客户:其平均年交易量达到1000亿欧元。然而,它对银行的外汇交易部门遭受的重大损失负有责任。粗略地说,当现货保持在召回障碍周围的[80%,105%]区域时,每日利差损失值为1至3个基点(取决于产品的复杂性,因为存在几种变化)。事实上,由于取消功能,它显示出强烈的模型依赖性:当现货移动时,账簿需要通过香草期权、远期合约、相关产品进行动态重新对冲。因此,它需要使用一种定价模型,该模型正确地结合了市场数据动态(波动性、回购、股票相关性、定量漂移……)和现货动态,以便对每日再对冲的成本进行合理定价。在实践中,建立一个足够复杂的定价模型来校准相关的协方差,同时保持数值稳定和计算合理,这已被证明是一个非常严峻的挑战。最后没有提到需要对产出作出全面的解释。为了避免这个问题,我们在这里展示了一种方便的方法,通过额外的纠正性回报来定价和对冲自动调用的有害行为。在构建这种方法的过程中,有一些近似的方法已经经过了数值测试和定性验证。尽管如此,就模型复杂性和开发而言,这是更便宜的,并且它提供了一个全面而有效的定价方案,并结合了一个对冲策略,该策略解决了由自动呼叫复制策略产生的负携带问题。
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引用次数: 1
Residual Shape Risk on Natural Gas Market with Mixed Jump Diffusion 混合跳跃扩散下天然气市场的剩余形状风险
Pub Date : 2019-04-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3389599
K. Janda, J. Kouřílek
This paper introduces residual shape risk as a new subclass of energy commodity risk. Residual shape risk is caused by insufficient liquidity of energy forward market when retail energy supplier has to hedge his short sales by a non-flexible standard baseload product available on wholesale market. Because of this inflexibility energy supplier is left with residual unhedged position which has to be closed at spot market. The residual shape risk is defined as a difference between spot and forward prices weighted by residual unhedged position which size depends on the shape of customers’ portfolio of a given retail energy supplier. We evaluated residual shape risk over the years 2014 - 2018 with a real portfolio of a leading natural gas retail supplier in the Czech Republic. The size of residual shape risk in our example corresponds approximately to 1 percent of profit margin of natural gas retail supplier.
本文介绍了剩余形状风险作为能源商品风险的一个新的子类。剩余形状风险是由于能源期货市场流动性不足,零售能源供应商必须利用批发市场上可获得的非弹性标准基载产品来对冲其卖空。由于这种不灵活性,能源供应商留下了剩余的未对冲头寸,这些头寸必须在现货市场平仓。剩余形状风险定义为现货价格与远期价格之间的差额,其大小取决于给定零售能源供应商的客户投资组合的形状。我们利用捷克共和国一家领先的天然气零售供应商的真实投资组合,评估了2014年至2018年的剩余形状风险。在我们的例子中,剩余形状风险的大小大约相当于天然气零售供应商利润率的1%。
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引用次数: 0
Efficient Conservative Second-Order Central-Upwind Schemes for Option-Pricing Problems 期权定价问题的有效保守二阶中心逆风方案
Pub Date : 2019-04-16 DOI: 10.21314/JCF.2019.363
Omishwary Bhatoo, A. Peer, E. Tadmor, D. Tangman, Aslam Aly El Faidal Saib
The conservative Kurganov–Tadmor (KT) scheme has been successfully applied to option-pricing problems by Germán I. Ramírez-Espinoza and Matthias Ehrhardt. These included the valuation of European, Asian and nonlinear options as Black–Scholes partial differential equations, written in the conservative form, by simply updating fluxes in the black box approach. In this paper, we describe an improvement of this idea through a fully vectorized algorithm of nonoscillatory slope limiters and the efficient use of time solvers. We also propose the application of second-order extensions of KT to option-pricing problems. Our test problems solve one-dimensional benchmark and convection-dominated European options as well as digital and butterfly options. These demonstrate the robustness and flexibility of the pricing methods and set a basis for complex problems. Further, the computation of option Greeks ensures the reliability of these methods. Numerical experiments are performed on barrier options, early exercisable American options and two-dimensional fixed and floating strike Asian options. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time American options have been priced by applying the early exercise condition on the semi-discrete formulation of central-upwind schemes. Our results show second-order, nonoscillatory and high-resolution properties of the schemes as well as computational efficiency.
保守的Kurganov-Tadmor (KT)方案已被Germán I. Ramírez-Espinoza和Matthias Ehrhardt成功地应用于期权定价问题。这些方法包括通过简单地更新黑箱方法中的通量,将欧洲、亚洲和非线性选项的估值写成保守形式的布莱克-斯科尔斯偏微分方程。在本文中,我们通过非振荡斜率限制器的完全矢量化算法和时间解算器的有效使用,描述了这一思想的改进。我们还提出了KT的二阶扩展在期权定价问题中的应用。我们的测试问题解决了一维基准和对流主导的欧洲期权以及数字和蝴蝶期权。这证明了定价方法的鲁棒性和灵活性,为解决复杂问题奠定了基础。此外,期权希腊数的计算保证了这些方法的可靠性。分别对障碍期权、早期可行权美式期权和二维固定浮动行权亚洲期权进行了数值实验。据作者所知,这是美国期权首次通过将早期行权条件应用于中心逆风方案的半离散公式来定价。我们的结果显示了该格式的二阶、非振荡和高分辨率特性以及计算效率。
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引用次数: 1
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Econometric Modeling: Derivatives eJournal
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