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Dynamic Asset Allocation With Options 带有选项的动态资产配置
Pub Date : 2020-03-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3560661
Joseph Clark, R. Swan
We derive replicating portfolios for some commonly used dynamic trading rules. In particular, we show that two commonly used dynamic rules can be replicated with static option portfolios. These replicating portfolios are more precise than the corresponding dynamic rules in the sense that the exposure is always correct at each price. For a rule that changes notional exposure linearly with price the error is linear in variance.
针对一些常用的动态交易规则,导出了可复制的投资组合。特别是,我们证明了两个常用的动态规则可以复制到静态期权组合中。这些复制投资组合比相应的动态规则更精确,因为在每个价格上的敞口总是正确的。对于一个随价格线性改变名义敞口的规则,其误差在方差上是线性的。
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引用次数: 0
Riding the Nordic German Power-Spread: The Einar Aas Experiment 驾驭北欧德国的权力扩散:埃纳尔斯实验
Pub Date : 2020-03-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3557286
C. Ewald, Erik Haugom, Gudbrand Lien, S. Størdal, Pengcheng Song
Inspired by the initial success and eventual failure of Einar Aas' trading strategy exploiting dynamical patterns in the spread between Nordic and German electricity futures, we investigate the question whether there is evidence for possible arbitrage from engaging in both markets simultaneously and the possibility of constructing a trading strategy that ultimately beats the markets. To do this, we first assess the risk premium and relevant Sharpe values for the two markets and observe significant differences. This is followed by a discussion as to how far the different risk premia and Sharpe values alone are evidence of arbitrage. The answer is, they are not. However, we then show that an intelligently chosen long-short strategy constructed in the Einar Aas spirit can generate a positive alpha in the CAPM sense, hence providing evidence of arbitrage.
受Einar Aas利用北欧和德国电力期货差价动态模式的交易策略的最初成功和最终失败的启发,我们研究了是否有证据表明同时参与两个市场可能存在套利,以及构建最终击败市场的交易策略的可能性。为此,我们首先评估两个市场的风险溢价和相关夏普值,并观察到显著差异。接下来的讨论是,不同的风险溢价和夏普值在多大程度上是套利的证据。答案是,它们不是。然而,我们随后证明,在Einar Aas精神下构建的明智选择的多空策略可以产生CAPM意义上的正alpha,从而提供套利的证据。
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引用次数: 1
Indian Gold Futures Market and Delivery Dynamics 印度黄金期货市场及交割动态
Pub Date : 2020-03-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3573588
T. Lingareddy
Indian gold derivatives market has a Century old history with the inception of the famous Bombay Bullion Association (BBA) in 1919 though subjected to ban subsequently similar to other commodities. Following their revival in the early 2000s, gold futures volumes have witnessed a healthy growth of about 115% on average during the first decade from 2003 to 2012 reaching an average daily turnover of more than Rs.12 thousand crore but fell steeply to about Rs. 4.6 thousand crore in 2014 with the levy of Commodity Transaction Tax (CTT) in July 2013 causing a sharp increase in impact cost of futures trading. Although gold futures volumes have recovered notably to around Rs. 5.7 thousand crore during 2019, they remained well below the pre-CTT era. Indian futures market is characterized by relatively high delivery ratio to volumes at about 0.35% on average during 2011 to 2019. The aggregate deliveries of gold on MCX accredited warehouses stood at 114 tonnes till December 2019 with a record delivery of about 5.16 tonnes of gold in the month of August 2019. In view of these significant deliveries in gold futures, an attempt is made to understand trading trends with particular reference to pattern of gold stocks as well as deliveries in futures market.
印度黄金衍生品市场已有一个世纪的历史,著名的孟买黄金协会(BBA)于1919年成立,尽管随后受到类似于其他大宗商品的禁令。继21世纪初的复苏之后,黄金期货交易量在2003年至2012年的第一个十年中平均健康增长约115%,平均每日成交额超过1200亿卢比,但在2014年急剧下降至约460亿卢比,2013年7月征收商品交易税(CTT)导致期货交易的影响成本急剧增加。尽管2019年黄金期货交易量已显著回升至570亿卢比左右,但仍远低于ctt时代之前的水平。2011年至2019年,印度期货市场的特点是交付率相对较高,平均约为0.35%。截至2019年12月,MCX认可仓库的黄金总交付量为114吨,2019年8月的黄金交付量达到创纪录的5.16吨。鉴于这些重要的黄金期货交割,试图了解交易趋势,特别是参考黄金库存的模式以及期货市场的交割。
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引用次数: 0
The Relative Pricing of Sovereign Credit Risk after the Eurozone Crisis 欧元区危机后主权信用风险的相对定价
Pub Date : 2020-03-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3028070
R. Corvino, F. Ruggiero
The paper analyses the relative pricing between sovereign CDS spreads and sovereign bond yields, for European countries, during and after the sovereign debt crisis of 2010-2012. In particular, we focus on the cross-sectional relationship between CDS spreads and bond yields across the European countries, and we investigate whether the differences across countries in terms of default risk, priced in the CDS spreads, are consistently priced in the cross-section of the bond yields. We show that an inconsistent cross-sectional relationship between CDS spreads and bond yields emerges during the crisis period for all the European countries, while after the announcement of the Outright Monetary Transaction (OMT) Programme, by the European Central Bank, the consistent cross-sectional relationship between default risk and bond yields is restored for the Eurozone countries only.
本文分析了2010-2012年主权债务危机期间和之后欧洲国家主权CDS价差与主权债券收益率之间的相对定价。我们特别关注欧洲各国CDS息差和债券收益率之间的横截面关系,并调查各国在CDS息差定价的违约风险方面的差异是否一致地反映在债券收益率的横截面上。我们表明,在危机期间,所有欧洲国家的CDS利差和债券收益率之间出现了不一致的横截面关系,而在欧洲央行宣布直接货币交易(OMT)计划之后,违约风险和债券收益率之间的一致横截面关系仅在欧元区国家恢复。
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引用次数: 3
Efficient Dynamic Hedging for Large Variable Annuity Portfolios with Multiple Underlying Assets 多标的资产大变动年金组合的有效动态套期保值
Pub Date : 2020-03-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3550106
X. Lin, Shuai Yang
A variable annuity (VA) is an equity-linked annuity that provides investment guarantees to its policyholder and its contributions are normally invested in multiple underlying assets (e.g., mutual funds), which exposes VA liability to significant market risks. Hedging the market risks is therefore crucial in risk managing a VA portfolio as the VA guarantees are long-dated liabilities that may span decades. In order to hedge the VA liability, the issuing insurance company would need to construct a hedging portfolio consisting of the underlying assets whose positions are often determined by the liability Greeks such as partial dollar Deltas. Usually, these quantities are calculated via nested simulation approach. For insurance companies that manage large VA portfolios (e.g., 100k+ policies), calculating those quantities is extremely time-consuming or even prohibitive due to the complexity of the guarantee payoffs and the stochastic-on-stochastic nature of the nested simulation algorithm. In this paper, we extend the surrogate model-assisted nest simulation approach in Lin and Yang [(2020) Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 91, 85–103] to efficiently calculate the total VA liability and the partial dollar Deltas for large VA portfolios with multiple underlying assets. In our proposed algorithm, the nested simulation is run using small sets of selected representative policies and representative outer loops. As a result, the computing time is substantially reduced. The computational advantage of the proposed algorithm and the importance of dynamic hedging are further illustrated through a profit and loss (P&L) analysis for a large synthetic VA portfolio. Moreover, the robustness of the performance of the proposed algorithm is tested with multiple simulation runs. Numerical results show that the proposed algorithm is able to accurately approximate different quantities of interest and the performance is robust with respect to different sets of parameter inputs. Finally, we show how our approach could be extended to potentially incorporate stochastic interest rates and estimate other Greeks such as Rho.
可变年金是一种与股票挂钩的年金,为投保人提供投资保证,其供款通常投资于多种标的资产(例如共同基金),这使可变年金的负债面临重大的市场风险。因此,对冲市场风险在风险管理中至关重要,因为风险投资担保是可能跨越数十年的长期负债。为了对冲VA负债,发行保险公司需要构建一个对冲投资组合,该组合由标的资产组成,其头寸通常由负债希腊人(如部分美元delta)决定。通常,这些数量是通过嵌套模拟方法计算的。对于管理大型VA投资组合(例如,100,000 +保单)的保险公司来说,由于保证收益的复杂性和嵌套模拟算法的随机特性,计算这些数量非常耗时甚至令人望而却步。在本文中,我们扩展了Lin和Yang [(2020) Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 91, 85-103]中的代理模型辅助巢模拟方法,以有效地计算具有多个基础资产的大型VA投资组合的总VA负债和部分美元delta。在我们提出的算法中,嵌套模拟使用小组选定的代表性策略和代表性外循环来运行。因此,计算时间大大减少。通过对大型综合风险投资组合的损益分析,进一步说明了所提出算法的计算优势和动态套期保值的重要性。通过多次仿真验证了该算法的鲁棒性。数值结果表明,该算法能够准确地逼近不同的感兴趣量,并且对于不同的参数输入集具有良好的鲁棒性。最后,我们展示了如何将我们的方法扩展到潜在的随机利率,并估计其他希腊人,如Rho。
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引用次数: 9
The Wiener-Hopf Factorization for Pricing Options Made Easy 简化了期权定价的Wiener-Hopf分解
Pub Date : 2020-02-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3540466
O. Kudryavtsev, Praskoviya Luzhetskaya
The paper suggest a new approach to pricing barrier options under pure non-Gaussian Levy processes with jumps of finite variation. The key idea behind the method to represent the process under consideration as a difference between subordinators (increasing Levy processes). Such splitting rule applied to the process at exponentially distributed randomized time points gives us the possibility to find the option price by analytically solving a sequence of simple Wiener-Hopf equations.
本文提出了一种具有有限变差跳变的纯非高斯Levy过程下障碍期权定价的新方法。该方法背后的关键思想是将所考虑的过程表示为从属过程之间的差异(增加Levy过程)。将这种分裂规则应用于指数分布随机时间点的过程,使我们能够通过解析求解一系列简单的Wiener-Hopf方程来求出期权价格。
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引用次数: 2
Time-Inhomogeneous Gaussian Stochastic Volatility Models: Large Deviations and Super Roughness 时间非齐次高斯随机波动模型:大偏差和超粗糙度
Pub Date : 2020-02-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3574337
Archil Gulisashvili
We introduce time-inhomogeneous stochastic volatility models, in which the volatility is described by a nonnegative function of a Volterra type continuous Gaussian process that may have extremely rough sample paths. The drift function and the volatility function are assumed to be time-dependent and locally $omega$-continuous for some modulus of continuity $omega$. The main results obtained in the paper are sample path and small-noise large deviation principles for the log-price process in a Gaussian model under very mild restrictions. We use these results to study the asymptotic behavior of binary up-and-in barrier options and binary call options.
我们引入了时间非齐次随机波动率模型,其中波动率由Volterra型连续高斯过程的非负函数描述,该过程可能具有极其粗糙的样本路径。假定漂移函数和波动函数是时间相关的,并且对于连续性的某些模量局部连续。本文得到的主要结果是在非常温和的限制条件下高斯模型中对数价格过程的样本路径和小噪声大偏差原理。我们利用这些结果研究了二元涨跌障碍期权和二元看涨期权的渐近行为。
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引用次数: 15
Do Bitcoin Stylized Facts Depend on Geopolitical Risk? 比特币风格化的事实取决于地缘政治风险吗?
Pub Date : 2020-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3530020
Messaoud Chibane, Nathalie Janson
We show that the dynamics of Bitcoin (BTC) price are strongly influenced by the level of global geopolitical risk. Indeed, a number of well established stylized facts about BTC cease to be true when we condition the evolution of BTC returns on the GPR index. In particular, we find that when geopolitical risk is high, BTC is no longer a perfect portfolio diversifier as it correlates strongly with Gold, US treasury yields and negatively with EUR/USD. We also find that BTC price bubbles are much more likely to occur when geopolitical risk is high, i.e. when investors flock to BTC as a digital safe haven or to a lesser extent when geopolitical risk is low and the BTC market behavior is speculative. Conversely, when geopolitical risk is moderate we find that BTC returns are approximately normally distributed and therefore do not seem to foster asset pricing bubbles. These results suggest that investors should adjust their portfolio holdings of BTC while adequately taking into account the amount of geopolitical risk present in the economy. Last, we find that the efficiency (in its weak form) of the BTC market increases with the level of geopolitical risk and that in fact the BTC market is rather efficient for moderate and high GPR.
我们表明,比特币(BTC)价格的动态受到全球地缘政治风险水平的强烈影响。事实上,当我们将BTC回报的演变与GPR指数挂钩时,许多关于BTC的既定事实就不再成立了。特别是,我们发现当地缘政治风险很高时,比特币不再是一个完美的投资组合多元化工具,因为它与黄金、美国国债收益率密切相关,与欧元/美元呈负相关。我们还发现,当地缘政治风险高时,即投资者将比特币作为数字避风港涌向比特币时,比特币价格泡沫更有可能发生;当地缘政治风险低、比特币市场行为具有投机性时,比特币价格泡沫的可能性较小。相反,当地缘政治风险适中时,我们发现比特币的回报近似正态分布,因此似乎不会助长资产定价泡沫。这些结果表明,投资者应该在充分考虑到经济中存在的地缘政治风险的同时,调整他们的比特币投资组合。最后,我们发现比特币市场的效率(弱形式)随着地缘政治风险水平的增加而增加,实际上比特币市场在中等和高GPR下是相当有效的。
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引用次数: 5
Cross Currency Valuation and Hedging in the Multiple Curve Framework 多重曲线框架下的交叉货币估值与对冲
Pub Date : 2020-01-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3528307
Alessandro Gnoatto, N. Seiffert
We generalize the results of Bielecki and Rutkowski (2015) on funding and collateraliza- tion to a multi-currency framework and link their results with those of Piterbarg (2012), Moreni and Pallavicini (2017), and Fujii et al. (2010b). In doing this, we provide a complete study of absence of arbitrage in a multi-currency market where, in each single monetary area, multiple interest rates coexist. We first characterize absence of arbitrage in the case without collateral. After that we study collateralization schemes in a very general situation: the cash flows of the contingent claim and those associated to the collateral agreement can be specified in any currency. We study both segregation and rehypothecation and allow for cash and risky collateral in arbitrary currency specifications. Absence of arbitrage and pricing in the presence of collateral are discussed under all possible combinations of conventions. Our work provides a reference for the analysis of wealth dynamics, we also provide valuation formulas that are a useful foundation for cross-currency curve construction techniques. Our framework provides also a solid foundation for the construction of multi-currency simulation models for the generation of exposure profiles in the context of xVA calculations.
我们将Bielecki和Rutkowski(2015)关于融资和抵押的结果推广到多货币框架,并将其结果与Piterbarg (2012), Moreni和Pallavicini(2017)以及Fujii等人(2010b)的结果联系起来。在此过程中,我们提供了一个完整的研究,在一个多货币市场中,在每个单一货币区,多种利率并存。我们首先在没有抵押品的情况下描述无套利的特征。之后,我们研究了一种非常一般的情况下的担保方案:或有债权的现金流和与担保协议相关的现金流可以用任何货币来指定。我们研究分离和再抵押,并允许现金和风险抵押品在任意货币规格。在所有可能的惯例组合下,讨论了无套利和有抵押品时的定价。我们的工作为财富动态分析提供了参考,我们还提供了估值公式,这是跨货币曲线构建技术的有用基础。我们的框架还为构建多货币模拟模型提供了坚实的基础,以便在xVA计算的背景下生成敞口概况。
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引用次数: 6
Asset Management 资产管理
Pub Date : 2020-01-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2710123
P. Vanini
These lecture notes cover old and new investment methods, regulatory and legal developments and the role of technology as a game changer in asset management. The discussion gives the same weight to the theoretical and practical aspects of asset management. The focus is on portfolio constructions, asset pricing on the theoretical side. The applied chapters contain an asset management industry overview, introduce to data analytics, blockchain and crypto-currency, demographics and technology.
这些讲义涵盖了新旧投资方法,监管和法律的发展以及技术在资产管理中作为游戏规则改变者的作用。讨论对资产管理的理论和实践方面给予了同样的重视。重点是投资组合的构建,理论上的资产定价。应用章节包含资产管理行业概述,介绍数据分析,区块链和加密货币,人口统计和技术。
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引用次数: 0
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Econometric Modeling: Derivatives eJournal
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