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SHapley Additive exPlanations-guided rule-based energy management: bridging machine learning interpretability and adaptive control strategies 加性解释引导的基于规则的能源管理:桥接机器学习可解释性和自适应控制策略
IF 5.9 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ref.2025.100779
Abdallah Abdellatif , Hamza Mubarak , Harikrishnan Ramiah , Hazlie Mokhlis , Saad Mekhilef , Hassan Muwafaq Gheni , Jeevan Kanesan
The effective integration of photovoltaic (PV) systems with battery storage is essential for advancing sustainable energy adoption yet translating forecasts into adaptive and interpretable control remains a key challenge. This study introduces a SHapley Additive exPlanations–Guided Energy Management System (SHAP-EMS) that directly embeds model interpretability into real-time control for residential solar-battery systems. A hybrid Linear Regression–eXtreme Gradient Boost (LR-XGBoost) model provides one-hour-ahead PV forecasts, while a SHAP-weighted rule-based controller dynamically adjusts decision priorities based on feature importance, system state, and temporal interactions. Results demonstrate that SHAP-EMS achieved an 18.3% reduction in peak grid imports (63.2% to 44.9%), a 4.5% decrease in total imports compared with Mixed-Integer Linear Programming optimization, and consistently high self-consumption ratios under polycrystalline PV conditions. By efficiently adapting to temperature fluctuations and generation variability, the framework illustrates how SHAP values can be leveraged to transform black-box forecasts into transparent, computationally efficient, and adaptive control strategies, establishing a novel paradigm for explainable energy management.
光伏(PV)系统与电池存储的有效集成对于推进可持续能源的采用至关重要,但将预测转化为自适应和可解释的控制仍然是一个关键挑战。本研究引入了SHapley附加解释引导能源管理系统(SHAP-EMS),该系统直接将模型可解释性嵌入到住宅太阳能电池系统的实时控制中。混合线性回归-极端梯度增强(LR-XGBoost)模型提供一小时前的PV预测,而基于shap加权规则的控制器根据特征重要性、系统状态和时间交互动态调整决策优先级。结果表明,与混合整数线性规划优化相比,SHAP-EMS实现了18.3%的峰值电网进口量减少(63.2%至44.9%),总进口量减少4.5%,并且在多晶光伏条件下保持了较高的自用率。通过有效地适应温度波动和发电变化,该框架说明了如何利用SHAP值将黑盒预测转化为透明、计算效率高、自适应的控制策略,为可解释的能源管理建立了一种新的范例。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing socio-economic vulnerability factors for hydrogen technology adoption in Malaysia: a systematic review 评估马来西亚采用氢技术的社会经济脆弱性因素:系统回顾
IF 5.9 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ref.2025.100777
Ismallianto Isia , Bee Huah Lim , Noor Fifinatasha Shahedan , Masli Irwan Rosli , Wai Yin Wong
The global shift toward clean and sustainable energy systems has highlighted the importance of understanding socio-economic barriers to hydrogen technology acceptance, especially in emerging economies like Malaysia. This systematic review aims to assess the socio-economic vulnerability factors that influence the readiness and capacity of Malaysian communities to transition toward hydrogen technology such as fuel cell applications. A comprehensive literature search across databases was conducted, applying PRISMA guidelines to identify, screen, and analyze peer-reviewed studies published between 2010 and 2025. Out of 427 initially identified articles, 8 were selected for detailed evaluation. Findings reveal that financial constraints, infrastructure disparities, policy gaps, and educational inequalities disproportionately hinder vulnerable communities, exacerbating urban-rural divides and perpetuating energy inequities. Moreover, factors like property ownership, employment status, and digital literacy intersect with demographic and spatial variables, reinforcing systemic inequalities in technology access. This review reveals that conventional, additive vulnerability frameworks are insufficient to address the multifactorial nature of energy adoption challenges. Therefore, we advocate for the integration of context-specific, multidimensional indicators tailored to Malaysia’s socio-political and geographic heterogeneity to ensure an inclusive and equitable clean energy transition. The study concludes with strategic recommendations for policymakers to design data-driven interventions targeting vulnerable groups in the hydrogen energy ecosystem.
全球向清洁和可持续能源系统的转变凸显了理解氢技术接受的社会经济障碍的重要性,特别是在马来西亚等新兴经济体。本系统综述旨在评估影响马来西亚社区向氢技术(如燃料电池应用)过渡的准备程度和能力的社会经济脆弱性因素。在数据库中进行了全面的文献检索,应用PRISMA指南来识别、筛选和分析2010年至2025年间发表的同行评议研究。在最初确定的427篇文章中,选择了8篇进行详细评价。研究结果显示,财政约束、基础设施差距、政策差距和教育不平等不成比例地阻碍了弱势社区的发展,加剧了城乡差距,并使能源不平等永久化。此外,财产所有权、就业状况和数字素养等因素与人口和空间变量相互交织,加剧了技术获取方面的系统性不平等。这一综述表明,传统的、可叠加的脆弱性框架不足以解决能源采用挑战的多因素性质。因此,我们主张整合针对马来西亚社会政治和地理异质性的具体情况的多维指标,以确保包容性和公平的清洁能源转型。该研究最后为政策制定者提出了战略建议,以设计针对氢能生态系统中弱势群体的数据驱动干预措施。
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引用次数: 0
Renewable energy research in ASEAN countries: bibliometric analysis of past, present and future trends 东盟国家的可再生能源研究:过去、现在和未来趋势的文献计量分析
IF 5.9 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ref.2025.100776
Djamal Hissein Didane , Bukhari Manshoor , Mohammad Sukri Mustapa , Abdulrahman Aljabri , Abba Lawan Bukar , Mahmoud Kassas
Renewable energy plays a crucial role in achieving sustainable development goal 7 (SDG-7), which aims to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all. This study presents a bibliometric analysis of renewable energy research in ASEAN countries from 2000 to 2024, highlighting key trends, influential authors, leading research institutions and dominant sources of publication using Scopus database. VOSviewer and Bibliometrix are used to perform the analysis including the evolution of research topics, collaboration networks, the impact of scholarly contributions. The findings indicate a significant rise in publications in the region with Malaysia and Indonesia leading in total research output. However, the per capita productivity metric highlights Singapore and Brunei as the most research-productive nations in the region. Topics such as solar energy, biomass and wind energy emerge as the most studied topics reflecting regional priorities and resource availability. Moreover, the keyword analysis reveals a shift toward emerging technologies such as microgrids, energy storage and smart grids, signalling future research directions. The study underscores the growing emphasis on sustainability, energy efficiency and policy frameworks necessary for advancing renewable energy adoption in ASEAN. In terms of publications source, there was a diverse range of journals and conference proceedings that serve as primary dissemination platforms for ASEAN-based renewable energy researchers. By mapping past and present research landscapes, this study provides insights for policymakers, researchers and industry stakeholders to foster collaboration and drive the transition of the region towards a sustainable energy future in alignment with SDG-7.
可再生能源在实现可持续发展目标7(可持续发展目标7)方面发挥着至关重要的作用,该目标旨在确保所有人都能获得负担得起的、可靠的、可持续的现代能源。本研究利用Scopus数据库对东盟国家2000年至2024年的可再生能源研究进行了文献计量分析,突出了主要趋势、有影响力的作者、领先的研究机构和主要的出版物来源。使用VOSviewer和Bibliometrix进行分析,包括研究主题的演变,合作网络,学术贡献的影响。研究结果表明,该地区的出版物显著增加,其中马来西亚和印度尼西亚在研究产出总量方面处于领先地位。然而,人均生产力指标强调新加坡和文莱是该地区研究生产力最高的国家。太阳能、生物质能和风能等主题成为研究最多的主题,反映了区域优先事项和资源可用性。此外,关键词分析揭示了向微电网、储能和智能电网等新兴技术的转变,预示了未来的研究方向。该研究强调,东盟日益重视可持续性、能源效率和政策框架,这些都是推动采用可再生能源的必要条件。在出版物来源方面,有各种各样的期刊和会议论文集作为东盟可再生能源研究人员的主要传播平台。通过绘制过去和现在的研究景观,本研究为政策制定者、研究人员和行业利益相关者提供了见解,以促进合作,推动该地区向可持续能源未来的过渡,与可持续发展目标7保持一致。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of 100% renewable electricity on hydropower generation in Aotearoa New Zealand 100%可再生电力对新西兰奥特罗阿水力发电的影响
IF 5.9 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ref.2025.100769
Philip Stelling , Alan C Brent , Daniel Burmester
Aotearoa New Zealand aims to achieve 100% renewable electricity by 2030, currently standing at over 85% from hydro, geothermal, wind, and solar resources. The country’s isolated geography currently necessitates dispatchable hydropower and fossil fuels to manage intermittency and maintain grid stability. A literature review of countries also with high renewable penetrations – Norway, Iceland, Austria, Canada, and Brazil – revealed challenges including price volatility, operational flexibility requirements, dry year risks, and increasing electricity demand from economic growth and electrification. The objective of this paper is to understand the potential consequences for Aotearoa New Zealand by comparing the projected 2030 electricity demand, based on scenarios developed by the government, against anticipated renewable generation capacity, using data on the current generation fleet and the near-term investment pipeline. The method assumed that added capacity of renewables would follow similar generation profiles to existing generators. It is concluded that the 100% renewable electricity target by 2030 is feasible, but only if the committed and actively pursued projects, including offshore wind, are commissioned. Then there would be sufficient generation for all scenarios, maintaining nearly full hydro storage year-round. Minor shortfalls occur during low wind/solar periods (0 to 1% of the year), but with significant excess generation (55 to 65% of the year) where 27 to 42% would be available for effective storage utilisation in the power system. To this end, the shortfalls can be addressed, to some extent, with committed and actively pursued battery storage, which was not included in the analysis due to the uncertainty of how they will be participating in the future electricity market.
新西兰的目标是到2030年实现100%的可再生电力,目前85%以上的电力来自水力、地热、风能和太阳能资源。该国的地理位置偏远,目前需要可调度的水电和化石燃料来管理间歇性和维持电网稳定。对挪威、冰岛、奥地利、加拿大和巴西等可再生能源渗透率较高的国家的文献综述揭示了包括价格波动、运营灵活性要求、干旱年风险以及经济增长和电气化带来的电力需求增加等挑战。本文的目的是通过比较2030年预计的电力需求,根据政府制定的方案,与预期的可再生能源发电能力,利用当前发电机组和近期投资管道的数据,了解对新西兰的潜在影响。该方法假设可再生能源的新增容量将遵循与现有发电机相似的发电概况。结论是,到2030年实现100%可再生电力的目标是可行的,但前提是承诺和积极追求的项目,包括海上风电,都投入使用。这样就会有足够的发电量来满足所有的需求,全年保持近乎满负荷的蓄水量。在风能/太阳能低的时期(一年的0 - 1%)会出现轻微的短缺,但有显著的过剩发电量(一年的55 - 65%),其中27 - 42%可用于电力系统的有效存储利用。为此,在一定程度上,可以通过坚定和积极追求电池储能来解决这些不足,由于它们将如何参与未来电力市场的不确定性,这一点没有包括在分析中。
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引用次数: 0
A robust framework for financial risk management of PV–EV systems under uncertainty in electricity markets 电力市场不确定性下PV-EV系统财务风险管理的稳健框架
IF 5.9 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ref.2025.100774
Vahid Parvaz
The increasing penetration of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Photovoltaic (PV) systems has introduced new energy management and financial challenges in the electricity market. The inherent fluctuations in PV generation and the unpredictable behavior of the EV charging load carry a significant risk of imbalance and heavy financial penalties. This paper proposes a comprehensive risk management framework for the optimal energy procurement decision of a PV-EV facility in the electricity market, aiming to minimize operational costs. The methodology was developed along two parallel paths: (1) heterogeneity analysis of EV charging load using K-Means clustering and (2) PV generation uncertainty modeling.
A hybrid statistical-machine learning model was adopted for uncertainty estimation, validating the prediction interval reliability with a Prediction Interval Coverage Probability (PICP) of 93.72%. Finally, the optimal energy procurement decision was formulated using a Robust Optimization model to guarantee load supply under the 90% lower bound of PV generation (P5%PV​). The results show that adopting the robust decision, assuming day-ahead market prices (CDA=50 UP/kWh) and imbalance settlement (CRT=70 UP/kWh), leads to a total operational cost of 68.03 million UP over a one-year testing period. Compared to the ideal (deterministic) model, this cost includes a risk cost of 5,546,926.32 UP (equivalent to 7.53% of the deterministic model’s cost). This additional cost quantifies the economic value of uncertainty information and ensures the system’s 93.84% stability in meeting demand. The findings suggest that the proposed framework not only offers technical solutions but can also provide effective guidance for operators and policymakers in electricity markets.
电动汽车(ev)和光伏(PV)系统的日益普及给电力市场带来了新的能源管理和财务挑战。光伏发电的固有波动和电动汽车充电负荷的不可预测行为带来了巨大的不平衡风险和沉重的经济处罚。本文提出了一个综合风险管理框架,用于电力市场中以运营成本最小化为目标的PV-EV设施的最优能源采购决策。该方法沿着两条平行路径发展:(1)使用K-Means聚类分析电动汽车充电负荷的异质性;(2)光伏发电不确定性建模。采用统计-机器学习混合模型进行不确定性估计,预测区间覆盖概率(PICP)为93.72%,验证了预测区间可靠性。最后,利用鲁棒优化模型制定最优购电决策,以保证在光伏发电量90%下界(5%PV)下的负荷供应。结果表明,采用稳健决策,假设日前市场价格(CDA=50 UP/kWh)和不平衡结算(CRT=70 UP/kWh),在一年的测试期内,总运营成本为6803万UP。与理想(确定性)模型相比,该成本包括5,546,926.32 UP的风险成本(相当于确定性模型成本的7.53%)。这一额外的成本量化了不确定性信息的经济价值,并确保了系统在满足需求时的93.84%的稳定性。研究结果表明,拟议的框架不仅提供了技术解决方案,而且可以为电力市场的运营商和政策制定者提供有效的指导。
{"title":"A robust framework for financial risk management of PV–EV systems under uncertainty in electricity markets","authors":"Vahid Parvaz","doi":"10.1016/j.ref.2025.100774","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ref.2025.100774","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing penetration of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Photovoltaic (PV) systems has introduced new energy management and financial challenges in the electricity market. The inherent fluctuations in PV generation and the unpredictable behavior of the EV charging load carry a significant risk of imbalance and heavy financial penalties. This paper proposes a comprehensive risk management framework for the optimal energy procurement decision of a PV-EV facility in the electricity market, aiming to minimize operational costs. The methodology was developed along two parallel paths: (1) heterogeneity analysis of EV charging load using K-Means clustering and (2) PV generation uncertainty modeling.</div><div>A hybrid statistical-machine learning model was adopted for uncertainty estimation, validating the prediction interval reliability with a Prediction Interval Coverage Probability (PICP) of 93.72%. Finally, the optimal energy procurement decision was formulated using a Robust Optimization model to guarantee load supply under the 90% lower bound of PV generation (<span><math><msubsup><mi>P</mi><mrow><mn>5</mn><mo>%</mo></mrow><mrow><mi>PV</mi></mrow></msubsup></math></span>​). The results show that adopting the robust decision, assuming day-ahead market prices (C<sup>DA</sup>=50 UP/kWh) and imbalance settlement (C<sup>RT</sup>=70 UP/kWh), leads to a total operational cost of 68.03 million UP over a one-year testing period. Compared to the ideal (deterministic) model, this cost includes a risk cost of 5,546,926.32 UP (equivalent to 7.53% of the deterministic model’s cost). This additional cost quantifies the economic value of uncertainty information and ensures the system’s 93.84% stability in meeting demand. The findings suggest that the proposed framework not only offers technical solutions but can also provide effective guidance for operators and policymakers in electricity markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":29780,"journal":{"name":"Renewable Energy Focus","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 100774"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145424514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal allocation of distributed generators and capacitor banks considering load models under stochastic load levels 随机负荷水平下考虑负荷模型的分布式发电机和电容器组优化配置
IF 5.9 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ref.2025.100773
Moshood Akanni Alao, Olawale Muhammed Popoola
Optimal allocation of distributed generators (DGs) and capacitor banks (CBs) is crucial for enhancing both the technical performance and environmental sustainability of distribution systems. Uncertainties arising from consumer behaviour, climatic conditions, and time-of-use introduce variability in load demands. Therefore, accounting for load demand uncertainty is essential for effective and sustainable distribution system planning. In this study, a novel fuzzified random number approach is employed to model the uncertainty in voltage-dependent non-linear load (VDL) models. An improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) algorithm is then applied for the simultaneous allocation of DGs and CBs in radial distribution networks under both constant (CL) and stochastic VDL scenarios. The IPSO method is validated on the IEEE 33-bus system to evaluate the technical, economic, and environmental benefits of DG and CB allocation. Key results indicate that DGs operating at an optimal power factor (OPF-DGs) combined with CBs outperform unity-power-factor (UPF-DGs) and CBs under the CL model, achieving superior outcomes in terms of reduced power loss, lower voltage deviation, and enhanced voltage stability. Specifically, power loss reductions of 94.36% are achieved for UPF-DGs + CBs, compared to 94.89% for OPF-DGs + CBs under CLs. For defuzzified mixed VDLs, a power loss reduction of 93.92% is observed under OPF-DGs + CBs. The proposed approach also demonstrates significant economic benefits, including high net present values and cost savings, alongside substantial reductions in environmental emissions. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis highlights that considering different load mixes, rather than static or single-load configurations, is critical for optimal planning and economic dispatch of distribution systems with DGs and CBs. Incorporating load uncertainty provides a more realistic representation of system performance, emphasizing its importance in sustainable distribution network planning.
分布式发电机(dg)和电容器组(cb)的优化配置对于提高配电系统的技术性能和环境可持续性至关重要。由消费者行为、气候条件和使用时间引起的不确定性导致了负荷需求的变化。因此,考虑负荷需求的不确定性对于有效和可持续的配电系统规划至关重要。本文采用一种新的模糊随机数方法对电压相关非线性负载(VDL)模型中的不确定性进行建模。将改进的粒子群优化算法(IPSO)应用于径向配电网中恒定(CL)和随机(VDL)两种情况下dg和cb的同步分配。IPSO方法在IEEE 33总线系统上进行了验证,以评估DG和CB分配的技术、经济和环境效益。关键结果表明,工作在最优功率因数(opf - dg)下的DGs与cb在CL模型下优于单位功率因数(upf - dg)和cb,在降低功率损耗、降低电压偏差和增强电压稳定性方面取得了更好的效果。具体来说,upf - dg + CBs的功率损耗降低了94.36%,而cl下的opf - dg + CBs的功率损耗降低了94.89%。对于去模糊化的混合vdl,在opf - dg + CBs下,功率损耗降低了93.92%。拟议的方法还显示出显著的经济效益,包括高净现值和节省成本,同时大幅减少环境排放。此外,敏感性分析强调,考虑不同的负荷组合,而不是静态或单负荷配置,对于具有dg和cb的配电系统的最佳规划和经济调度至关重要。纳入负荷不确定性可以更真实地反映系统性能,强调其在可持续配电网规划中的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Smart control of standalone solar-powered oil press: Applying Reinforcement Learning for productivity and energy utilization improvement 独立太阳能榨油机的智能控制:应用强化学习提高生产率和能源利用率
IF 5.9 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ref.2025.100772
Wiomou Joévin Bonzi , Zhangkai Wu , Sebastian Romuli , Klaus Meissner , Joachim Müller
In resources constrained rural areas, solar-powered oil extraction can be enhanced through recent advances in artificial intelligence for energy optimization. This study introduces SolPrInt, a deep reinforcement-learning (DRL) based controller for a standalone, photovoltaic-battery powered mechanical oil press. A proximal policy optimization (PPO) agent was trained in MATLAB/Simulink using 15 years of PVGIS-SARAH2 radiation data and peanut-oil extraction benchmarks. A primary training phase followed by an adversarial phase on the 5% least-sunny days reinforced robustness under low-irradiance conditions. The developed agent adapts press rotational speed to real-time PV availability, battery state of charge, and system behavior to ensure energy-efficient use of solar resources. In-silico validation achieved stable rewards and simulated throughput of 96 ± 13.5 kg/d under sunny days and 90 ± 20.5 kg/d under cloudy days. Compared with conventional fixed-schedule operation (08:00–18:00) under sunny and cloudy conditions, SolPrInt extends operating time, and reduces power outages, while improves oil yield by 0.7 percentage points. Experimental validation on a PV-simulator bench confirmed real-time deployment feasibility on a low-cost ESP32 microcontroller interfaced with a Kern Kraft KK20 press. These findings demonstrate the potential of PV-sensitive DRL control to improve the performance of standalone renewable energy systems, supporting reliable decentralized energy use and contributing to sustainable energy access. Supplementary materials supporting this work, are available at https://bonjoe.github.io/solprint.demo/.
在资源有限的农村地区,太阳能石油开采可以通过人工智能的最新进展来优化能源。本研究介绍了SolPrInt,一种基于深度强化学习(DRL)的控制器,用于独立的光伏电池供电的机械榨油机。利用15年的PVGIS-SARAH2辐射数据和花生油提取基准,在MATLAB/Simulink中训练了一个近端策略优化(PPO)代理。在低辐照度条件下,在5%日照最少的日子进行初级训练阶段,然后进行对抗阶段,增强了鲁棒性。开发的代理可以根据实时PV可用性、电池充电状态和系统行为调整压机转速,以确保太阳能资源的高效利用。硅验证获得了稳定的奖励和模拟吞吐量,晴天为96±13.5 kg/d,阴天为90±20.5 kg/d。与传统的晴天和多云条件下的固定作业时间(08:00-18:00)相比,SolPrInt延长了作业时间,减少了停电,同时提高了原油产量0.7个百分点。在pv模拟器台架上的实验验证证实了在低成本ESP32微控制器与Kern Kraft KK20压力机接口上实时部署的可行性。这些发现证明了pv敏感DRL控制在改善独立可再生能源系统性能、支持可靠的分散能源使用和促进可持续能源获取方面的潜力。支持这项工作的补充材料可在https://bonjoe.github.io/solprint.demo/上获得。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing second-life li-ion batteries for hybrid PV-diesel systems in remote amazonian communities 评估亚马逊偏远地区混合动力光伏-柴油系统的二次寿命锂离子电池
IF 5.9 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ref.2025.100770
Fábio L.F. Faria, Daniel O. dos Santos, Aline K.V. de Oliveira, Ricardo Rüther
Electrifying remote Amazonian communities entails substantial logistical and financial hurdles. Diesel generators remain the dominant power source in most isolated sites. Solar photovoltaic (PV) reduces fuel use, operating costs, and greenhouse-gas emissions relative to diesel-only operation. Because solar generation is intermittent, dependable supply requires efficient energy storage. Second-life lithium-ion batteries (SLBs), repurposed from electric-vehicle (EV) packs, can reduce system costs without compromising technical performance. We investigate SLB integration in PV–diesel hybrids using two Brazilian Army Special Border Platoons (SBPs) as case studies, which differ in renewable penetration. Based on HOMER Pro© simulations, a fully renewable setup with diesel as backup favors SLBs over new Li-ion batteries when the SLB price per kWh is below approximately 75 % of the price per kWh of new Li-ion batteries. For every 10 % reduction in SLB price, the project net present cost (NPC) falls by 3.2 %. In a configuration with approximately 40 % renewable penetration and active diesel generation, the NPC falls 1.4 % for each 10 % reduction in SLB price. It rises about 2.0 % for each 10 % increase in diesel price. In this context, increasing PV capacity is particularly effective between 125 % and 300 % of the baseline. Within this range, NPC falls by approximately 28 % per doubling of PV capacity. Beyond 300 % of the baseline, additional PV yields no further significant NPC reductions. Consequently, SLBs deliver a dual benefit: lower-cost PV intermittency management and reduced waste through delayed end-of-life.
为偏远的亚马逊社区通电需要巨大的后勤和财政障碍。在大多数偏远地区,柴油发电机仍然是主要的电力来源。与纯柴油发电相比,太阳能光伏发电减少了燃料使用、运行成本和温室气体排放。由于太阳能发电是间歇性的,可靠的供应需要高效的能量储存。二次寿命锂离子电池(slb)是由电动汽车(EV)电池组改造而成的,可以在不影响技术性能的情况下降低系统成本。我们使用两个巴西陆军特殊边境排(sbp)作为案例研究,研究了SLB在pv -柴油混合动力车中的集成,这两个排在可再生能源普及率方面存在差异。根据HOMER Pro©的模拟,当SLB每千瓦时的价格低于新锂离子电池每千瓦时价格的75%左右时,以柴油作为备用的完全可再生设置更有利于SLB而不是新锂离子电池。SLB价格每降低10%,项目净现值成本(NPC)下降3.2%。在可再生能源渗透率约为40%和柴油发电活跃的配置中,SLB价格每降低10%,NPC就会下降1.4%。柴油价格每上涨10%,汽油价格就上涨2.0%左右。在这种情况下,增加光伏容量在基线的125%到300%之间尤其有效。在此范围内,光伏容量每增加一倍,NPC将下降约28%。超过基线的300%,额外的光伏不会产生进一步的显著的NPC减少。因此,slb提供了双重好处:低成本的光伏间歇性管理和通过延迟寿命终止减少浪费。
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引用次数: 0
Mitigating emissions: energy balancing in eco-industrial zones considering renewable energy and electric vehicle uncertainties 减排:考虑可再生能源和电动汽车不确定性的生态工业区能源平衡
IF 5.9 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ref.2025.100768
Aminabbas Golshanfard , Younes Noorollahi , Hamed Hashemi-Dezaki , Henrik Lund
Nowadays, the industrial sector stands as the major energy consumer globally, simultaneously holding a pivotal role as a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, energy system planning and management in these systems are under heightened scrutiny due to concerns over energy, economic, and environmental challenges. This study aims to develop a comprehensive optimal model that integrates renewable potential assessment and utilizes particle swarm optimization for accurate and cost-effective planning and operation of the energy system within an industrial zone. The research proposes a novel strategy for planning and operating industrial energy hubs, offering a robust and adaptable framework tailored to industrial zones. By integrating uncertain renewable energy sources and EVs, the framework effectively manages variability and uncertainty. It holistically connects electricity, heating, cooling, and transportation sectors, enabling cross-sectoral flexibility and enhancing system adaptability. The study compares four scenarios: BAU, BAU CO2-Aware, CO2-Blind, and CO2-Aware, evaluating their impact on energy costs, investment, operational cost, and environmental benefits. The results show that the CO2-Aware and CO2-Blind scenarios reduce overall costs by approximately 15% and 10%, respectively, compared to the BAU. Additionally, the CO2-Aware scenario achieves a 32% reduction in CO2 emissions. Despite higher investment and operational costs, these alternative energy systems provide substantial economic and environmental advantages. Additionally, the implementation of this smart energy system within the industrial zone has addressed certain energy challenges in the studied region, such as mitigating electricity shortages during summer and alleviating natural gas shortages in winter.
如今,工业部门是全球主要的能源消费者,同时也是温室气体排放的重要贡献者。因此,由于对能源、经济和环境挑战的关注,这些系统中的能源系统规划和管理受到了严格的审查。本研究旨在建立一个综合可再生能源潜力评估和利用粒子群优化的综合优化模型,用于工业区内能源系统的准确和经济高效的规划和运行。该研究提出了一种规划和运营工业能源中心的新策略,为工业区提供了一个强大且适应性强的框架。通过整合不确定的可再生能源和电动汽车,该框架有效地管理了可变性和不确定性。它将电力、供暖、制冷和交通部门整体连接起来,实现跨部门灵活性,增强系统适应性。该研究比较了四种方案:BAU、BAU感知二氧化碳、BAU不感知二氧化碳和BAU感知二氧化碳,评估了它们对能源成本、投资、运营成本和环境效益的影响。结果表明,与BAU方案相比,co2感知方案和co2盲方案的总成本分别降低了约15%和10%。此外,二氧化碳感知方案可以减少32%的二氧化碳排放量。尽管投资和运营成本较高,但这些替代能源系统具有巨大的经济和环境优势。此外,在工业区内实施这种智能能源系统解决了所研究地区的某些能源挑战,例如缓解夏季电力短缺和冬季天然气短缺。
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引用次数: 0
Hierarchical energy management system for coordinated operation of multiple grid-tied home microgrids 多并网家庭微电网协同运行的分层能量管理系统
IF 5.9 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ref.2025.100766
Omar Muhammed Neda , Jafar Adabi , Mousa Marzband , Hamidreza Gholinezhadomran
A smart neighborhood (SN) comprising multiple home microgrids (HMGs) can provide cost-efficient electricity to end-users while supporting the main grid through ancillary services. The integration of renewable energy sources (RESs), energy storage systems (ESSs), and electric vehicles (EVs) introduces dynamic challenges, particularly under varying EV charging behaviors. To address these challenges, this study develops a hierarchical energy management system (HEMS) formulated as an optimization problem and solved using the Aquila optimizer (AO). The proposed HEMS enables the SN to operate as a cloud-based energy storage system (cloud-based ESS), minimizing energy imports from the main grid while maximizing local self-consumption and revenue. The performance of AO is benchmarked against the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm under two control architectures: (i) individual operation, where each local EMS (LEMS) optimizes its own HMG, and (ii) coordinated operation, where a central EMS (CEMS) synchronizes all HMGs, enabling the SN to function collectively as a cloud-based ESS. Simulation results highlight the superior performance of AO under the coordinated CEMS framework. For standard operation, AO reduces main grid imports to 30.62 kWh compared to 61.66 kWh, maintains higher SOC levels across ESSs and EVs (up to 90%), delivers greater total revenue (£44.662 vs. £22.907), and minimizes cumulative error (10.2% vs. 18.7%). Under different EV charging behaviors, AO demonstrates robust adaptability, achieving lower grid imports (40.43 kWh vs. 49.97 kWh), maintaining higher SOC across ESSs and EVs (up to 88.5%), delivering greater total revenue (£15.311 vs. £12.101, +26.5%), and reducing cumulative error from 158.19 to 146.25 (7.6% improvement). These results confirm that the AO-based HEMS efficiently coordinates distributed energy resources, enabling the SN to function as a reliable cloud-based ESS. It improves energy efficiency, economic returns, and grid support while maintaining resilience under dynamic EV charging conditions, providing a scalable and adaptive framework for future SN energy management.
由多个家庭微电网(hmg)组成的智能社区(SN)可以为最终用户提供经济高效的电力,同时通过辅助服务支持主电网。可再生能源(RESs)、储能系统(ess)和电动汽车(EV)的整合带来了动态挑战,特别是在不同的电动汽车充电行为下。为了解决这些挑战,本研究开发了一种分层能量管理系统(HEMS),该系统被制定为一个优化问题,并使用Aquila优化器(AO)来解决。拟议的HEMS使SN能够作为基于云的储能系统(cloud-based ESS)运行,最大限度地减少从主电网进口的能源,同时最大限度地提高本地自我消耗和收入。AO的性能在两种控制体系结构下以粒子群优化(PSO)算法为基准进行基准测试:(i)单独操作,其中每个本地EMS (LEMS)优化其自己的HMG; (ii)协调操作,其中中央EMS (CEMS)同步所有HMG,使SN能够作为基于云的ESS共同发挥作用。仿真结果表明,在协调CEMS框架下,AO具有优越的性能。对于标准运行,AO将主电网进口量从61.66千瓦时减少到30.62千瓦时,在ess和电动汽车中保持更高的SOC水平(高达90%),提供更高的总收入(44.662英镑对22.907英镑),并最大限度地减少累积误差(10.2%对18.7%)。在不同的电动汽车充电行为下,AO表现出强大的适应性,实现了更低的电网输入(40.43 kWh vs 49.97 kWh),在ess和电动汽车中保持更高的SOC(高达88.5%),提供更高的总收入(15.311英镑vs 12.101英镑,+26.5%),并将累积误差从158.19降低到146.25(改善7.6%)。这些结果证实,基于ao的HEMS有效地协调分布式能源,使SN能够作为可靠的基于云的ESS。它提高了能源效率、经济回报和电网支持,同时在动态电动汽车充电条件下保持弹性,为未来的SN能源管理提供了可扩展和自适应的框架。
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引用次数: 0
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Renewable Energy Focus
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