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Efficient islanding detection in hybrid Microgrids: The hybrid approach integrating ROCPAD and IB-RPV 混合微电网中的高效孤岛检测:集成 ROCPAD 和 IB-RPV 的混合方法
IF 4.2 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ref.2024.100629
Mangesh S. Kulkarni , Sachin Mishra , Sureshkumar Sudabattula , Naveen Kumar Sharma , Vinay Kumar Jadoun

In light of the growing integration of renewable energy sources (RES) into power networks, this study presents a new hybrid islanding detection method (IDM) designed to improve the islanding detection efficiency of hybrid MGs. The proposed hybrid IDM combines the strengths of two existing islanding detection approaches: The Rate of Change of Phase Angle Difference (ROCPAD) and the Intermittent-Bilateral Reactive Power Variation (IB-RPV). By combining these two techniques, the hybrid strategy uses their complementary qualities, minimizing the drawbacks of each method and improving detection accuracy overall. With analyzed performance, the suggested hybrid IDM’s compatibility with IEEE 1547 standards shows it complies with industry standards. Comparative performance analysis of the proposed IDM with existing IDM shows improved islanding detection accuracy, fast detection of islanding events, and no nuisance tripping. The method is noteworthy for its zero non-detection zone (NDZ) and negligible impact on power quality. The proposed hybrid IDM suits Hybrid Microgrids (HMG) with inverter-based Distributed Generation (DG).

鉴于可再生能源(RES)越来越多地融入电力网络,本研究提出了一种新的混合孤岛检测方法(IDM),旨在提高混合发电机的孤岛检测效率。所提出的混合孤岛检测方法结合了现有两种孤岛检测方法的优点:相位角差变化率 (ROCPAD) 和间歇-双侧无功功率变化 (IB-RPV)。通过结合这两种技术,混合策略利用了它们的互补性,最大限度地减少了每种方法的缺点,从整体上提高了检测精度。通过分析性能,建议的混合 IDM 与 IEEE 1547 标准的兼容性表明它符合行业标准。建议的 IDM 与现有 IDM 的性能对比分析表明,IDM 提高了孤岛检测精度,能快速检测到孤岛事件,且无骚扰跳闸。值得注意的是,该方法的非检测区(NDZ)为零,对电能质量的影响可忽略不计。所提出的混合 IDM 适合采用基于逆变器的分布式发电 (DG) 的混合微电网 (HMG)。
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引用次数: 0
Experimental investigation and performance evaluation of an asymmetrical Eleven-Level Multilevel Inverter (ELMLI) with reduced switching count and voltage stress 减少开关次数和电压应力的非对称十一电平多电平逆变器 (ELMLI) 的实验研究和性能评估
IF 4.2 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ref.2024.100598
Shahbaz Ahmad , Mohd Tariq , Vimlesh Verma

In this study an eleven-level multilevel inverter (ELMLI) with reduced switching requirements and lower voltage stress is introduced. The architecture comprises of eight semiconductor devices and only one capacitor, yielding a voltage boosting output of 1.67. Gate pulses for the inverter circuit are provided through a straight forward nearest level control (NLC) method. To highlight the superiority of this topology, a assessment is conducted with recent designs concerning the numbers of semiconductor devices, diodes, sources, and capacitors employed. The Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) is measured at 7.61%, which nearly meets acceptable limits. Subsequently, the suggested circuit is simulated operationally and functionally using software tools such as PLECS and MATLAB (SIMULINK). Experimental validation is also carried out under various loading conditions using the setup.

本研究介绍了一种可降低开关要求和电压应力的十一电平多电平逆变器(ELMLI)。该架构由八个半导体器件和一个电容器组成,升压输出为 1.67。逆变器电路的栅极脉冲通过直接的最近电平控制 (NLC) 方法提供。为了突出这种拓扑结构的优越性,我们对最新设计中使用的半导体器件、二极管、信号源和电容器的数量进行了评估。测得的总谐波失真(THD)为 7.61%,几乎达到了可接受的范围。随后,使用 PLECS 和 MATLAB (SIMULINK) 等软件工具对建议的电路进行了运行和功能模拟。此外,还利用该装置在各种负载条件下进行了实验验证。
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引用次数: 0
Battery energy storage with renewable energy sources integration in unbalanced distribution network considering time of use pricing 考虑使用时间定价的不平衡配电网中可再生能源与电池储能的整合
IF 4.2 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ref.2024.100630
Sigma Ray , Kumari Kasturi , Samarjit Patnaik , Manas Ranjan Nayak

The increasing demand for sustainable energy solutions and the escalating energy demand have facilitated the emergence of renewable energy sources (RES), such as photovoltaic (PV) sources. Combining RES with battery energy storage system (BESS) technology reduces peak hour demand and allows for economical charging and discharging for time-based energy pricing. Integrating PV and BESS in an unbalanced system with multiple RES sources is a challenging task. It requires a robust algorithm to minimise power loss in the distribution system and decrease the voltage unbalance factor (VUF). This paper presents a new multi-objective Pelican optimisation algorithm (MOPOA) for the optimal allocation of PV and BESS. The MOPOA helps find the best placement of PV and BESS in an IEEE-33 bus unbalanced radial distribution system (URDS). The proposed algorithm combines multiple benefits from a lower net present cost (NPC) and a higher voltage profile enhancement index (VPEI). The case studies and simulation results show that the proposed method places PV and BESS in IEEE 33-bus URDS optimally, satisfying all of the system’s requirements. The results indicate an improvement in the minimum VUF factor of 4.4% in a winter day and 4.3% in a summer day; a reduction in active power loss of 16% in a winter day and 7.1% in a summer day; and a reduction in reactive power loss of 7.5% in a winter day and 7.2% in a summer day. Thus, the recommended strategy effortlessly accelerates to a suboptimal solution.

对可持续能源解决方案日益增长的需求和不断攀升的能源需求促进了可再生能源(RES)的出现,如光伏(PV)资源。将可再生能源与电池储能系统(BESS)技术相结合,可以减少高峰时段的需求,实现经济的充放电,从而实现基于时间的能源定价。在具有多种可再生能源的不平衡系统中整合光伏和 BESS 是一项具有挑战性的任务。它需要一种稳健的算法,以最大限度地减少配电系统中的功率损耗并降低电压不平衡系数(VUF)。本文提出了一种新的多目标鹈鹕优化算法(MOPOA),用于光伏和 BESS 的优化分配。MOPOA 有助于在 IEEE-33 总线不平衡径向配电系统 (URDS) 中找到光伏和 BESS 的最佳位置。所提出的算法将较低的净现值成本(NPC)和较高的电压曲线增强指数(VPEI)等多种优势结合在一起。案例研究和仿真结果表明,所提出的方法能在 IEEE 33 总线 URDS 中以最佳方式安置光伏发电和 BESS,满足系统的所有要求。结果表明,最小 VUF 因数在冬季提高了 4.4%,在夏季提高了 4.3%;有功功率损耗在冬季降低了 16%,在夏季降低了 7.1%;无功功率损耗在冬季降低了 7.5%,在夏季降低了 7.2%。因此,推荐的策略可以毫不费力地加速实现次优解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Identifying interaction boundary of inverter-based generation in assessing system strength of power grids using relative electrical distance concept 利用相对电距离概念确定逆变器发电在评估电网系统强度时的交互边界
IF 4.2 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ref.2024.100627
Shereefdeen Oladapo Sanni , Olatunji Obalowu Mohammed , Ayodele Isqeel Abdullateef , Daw Saleh Sasi Mohammed , Joseph Yakubu Oricha

The increasing use of inverter-based generation (IBG) in power grids raises concern about system strength. This is partly due to the inherent interactions among multiple IBGs in close proximity to one another. This paper proposes an approach to identifying the existential boundary of interaction in a network using the relative electrical distance (RED) concept. The mathematical formulation of the RED concept to address the interaction problem among the IBGs involved utilising the power system network’s admittance matrix to capture its structural characteristics. An interaction matrix derived from the RED values of all IBG pairs was then developed to identify the interacting IBG groups. The proposed approach was demonstrated using the IEEE 39-bus system and a practical 72-bus Nigerian power grid. Results showed that RED values effectively group interacting IBGs, with values closer to 0 signifying higher interaction levels, values closer to 1 indicating lower interaction, and a value of 1 denoting no interaction. Time-domain simulations confirmed the accuracy of the approach, demonstrating that the effect of control interaction propagates proportionally to neighbouring IBGs based on RED values. However, fault currents can influence the impact of control interactions. This approach, which requires less computational effort, provides a quick identification tool for potential areas of concern based on the degree of interaction, enhancing the reliability of power grids with high IBG penetration.

电网中越来越多地使用逆变器发电(IBG),这引起了人们对系统强度的关注。这部分是由于相互靠近的多个 IBG 之间存在固有的相互作用。本文提出了一种使用相对电距离 (RED) 概念来识别网络中存在的相互作用边界的方法。为解决 IBG 之间的相互作用问题,RED 概念的数学公式涉及利用电力系统网络的导纳矩阵来捕捉其结构特征。然后,根据所有 IBG 对的 RED 值开发出交互矩阵,以识别交互的 IBG 组。我们使用 IEEE 39 总线系统和尼日利亚 72 总线实际电网演示了所提出的方法。结果表明,RED 值能有效地将相互作用的 IBG 分组,接近 0 的值表示相互作用程度较高,接近 1 的值表示相互作用程度较低,而 1 的值表示没有相互作用。时域模拟证实了该方法的准确性,表明控制交互的影响会根据 RED 值按比例传播到相邻的 IBG。然而,故障电流会影响控制交互的影响。这种方法所需计算量较少,可根据交互程度快速识别潜在的关注区域,从而提高 IBG 渗透率较高的电网的可靠性。
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引用次数: 0
A critical review on intelligent-based techniques for detection and mitigation of cyberthreats and cascaded failures in cyber-physical power systems 基于智能技术的网络物理电力系统网络威胁和级联故障检测与缓解技术综述
IF 4.2 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ref.2024.100628
Oluwaseun O. Tooki, Olawale M. Popoola

The advent of advanced technologies in power and energy systems is fortifying the grid’s resilience and enhancing the availability of power supply through a network of electrical and communication apparatus. The notable technologies include cyber-physical power systems (CPPS) and transactive energy systems (TES). The CPPS, a derivative of cyber-physical system (CPS), is for operational enhancement, and to boost performance. TES is an energy solution that uses economic and control techniques that enhance the dynamic balance between the supplied energy and energy demand across the electrical infrastructure. Integration of intelligence systems and information and communication technologies has brought new objections and threats to CPPS and TES, where adversaries capitalize on the vulnerabilities in cyber systems to manipulate the system deceitfully. Furthermore, the susceptibility of CPPS to information attacks inherently has the potential to cause cascading failures. Researchers have extensively focused their searchlight on applications of advanced technologies within CPPS. However, leaving out the impact of cascaded failures on the CPPS’ efficiency. This work critically assesses intelligent-based techniques used for cyber threat detection and mitigation. It offers insights on how to guide against some of the approaches adopted by cyber-attackers, identifies corresponding gaps, and presents future research directions. Also presented is the conceptualization of applying CPS models for the cyber-security enhancement of TES solutions. The articles selected for this review were evaluated based on recency and the application of intelligent approaches for intrusion and cyberattack detection in CPPS. It was uncovered from the review that topological models are often used to describe cyberattack processes in CPPS. Also, researchers based their investigation on False-Data Injection Attacks and IEEE-118 Bus systems for validation. It was discovered that the deep Reinforcement Learning-based Graph Convolutional Network is a promising solution for intrusion and cyberattack detection in TES owing to its security, detection accuracy, reliability, and scalability.

电力和能源系统中先进技术的出现正在加强电网的复原力,并通过电力和通信设备网络提高电力供应的可用性。其中著名的技术包括网络物理电力系统(CPPS)和交互式能源系统(TES)。网络物理电力系统(CPPS)是网络物理系统(CPS)的衍生产品,用于增强运行能力和提高性能。TES 是一种能源解决方案,它利用经济和控制技术来提高整个电力基础设施的能源供应和能源需求之间的动态平衡。情报系统与信息和通信技术的整合给 CPPS 和 TES 带来了新的威胁,对手利用网络系统的漏洞对系统进行欺骗性操纵。此外,CPPS 容易受到信息攻击,本身就有可能造成连锁故障。研究人员广泛关注先进技术在 CPPS 中的应用。然而,却忽略了级联故障对 CPPS 效率的影响。这项工作严格评估了用于网络威胁检测和缓解的智能技术。它就如何指导防范网络攻击者采用的一些方法提出了见解,找出了相应的差距,并提出了未来的研究方向。此外,还介绍了应用 CPS 模型增强 TES 解决方案网络安全的概念。本综述所选文章的评估依据是文章的新旧程度以及 CPPS 中入侵和网络攻击检测智能方法的应用情况。综述发现,拓扑模型通常用于描述 CPPS 中的网络攻击过程。此外,研究人员还基于虚假数据注入攻击和 IEEE-118 总线系统进行了验证。研究发现,基于强化学习的深度图卷积网络具有安全性、检测准确性、可靠性和可扩展性,是 TES 中入侵和网络攻击检测的理想解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
A review of dynamic changes in complementarities and transition pathways toward distributed energy resource–based electrical system 审查互补性的动态变化和向基于分布式能源资源的电力系统过渡的途径
IF 4.2 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ref.2024.100626
Yi-Yang Wang, Akihisa Mori

The global increase in renewable energy share and grid-resilience risks posed by climate change make distributed energy resources (DERs) a key priority for sustainable energy. While previous studies have explored the required changes for achieving a renewable energy source (RES)-based system, they have paid little attention to different transition strategies based on grid paradigms and their adaptability to local contexts. This study fills this research gap by showing transition pathways toward DER- and RES-based systems through a literature review of DERs, focusing on complementarity elements in electricity systems. We found that the transition pathway must be associated with changes in the following three complementarity elements: (1) the expansion and empowerment of prosumers; (2) the design and arrangement of the energy market and its mechanism in favor of the DER-based system; and (3) the adjustment of tasks and functions of existing stakeholders. These findings make a novel contribution to arguments about incumbents’ sustainability transitions, particularly incumbents’ adoption of new business models and adaptation to new institutions.

全球可再生能源份额的增加和气候变化带来的电网抗灾风险,使分布式能源资源(DERs)成为可持续能源的关键优先事项。以往的研究探讨了实现以可再生能源(RES)为基础的系统所需的变革,但很少关注基于电网模式的不同过渡战略及其对当地环境的适应性。本研究填补了这一研究空白,通过对 DER 的文献综述,展示了向基于 DER 和 RES 的系统过渡的途径,重点关注电力系统中的互补要素。我们发现,过渡途径必须与以下三个互补要素的变化相关联:(1) 扩大和授权专业消费者;(2) 能源市场及其机制的设计和安排有利于基于 DER 的系统;以及 (3) 调整现有利益相关者的任务和职能。这些发现为有关在位者的可持续性转型,特别是在位者采用新商业模式和适应新体制的论证做出了新的贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Green microgrid’s LFC using recursive step-by-step optimized multi-stage fuzzy controller with separated inference systems 使用带有分离推理系统的递归分步优化多级模糊控制器的绿色微电网 LFC
IF 4.2 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ref.2024.100625
H. Shayeghi , A. Rahnama , N. Bizon

Amidst the growing integration of renewable energy sources (RES), the efficient administration of load-frequency control (LFC) in microgrids (MG) continues to be a significant challenge. In response to the complexities of modern MGs operations, this study introduces a novel two-stage fuzzy controller aimed at enhancing the system’s dynamic responses. The proposed controller consists of two levels, each of which contains a separate and autonomous fuzzy inference system (FIS). The proposed controller includes proportional (P) and derivative (D) control operators in the first level, and in the second level, the combination of proportional and integral (I) operators is used. The suggested fuzzy P-fuzzy D multiplied by 1+(fuzzy P - fuzzy I) which is named FPFD-(1+FPFI) controller parameters are tuned by solving an optimization problem to reduce energy wastage and prevent undesirable dynamic responses. The parameters of the controller and the membership functions (MF) at each level are both optimized. The optimization process utilizes an enhanced particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. The decisive superiority of the FPFD-(1+FPFI) controller has been confirmed by evaluating its performance in an all-renewable MG compared to conventional controllers. Reduction of frequency deviation in the face of disturbances in the demand side or production of renewables, better performance in the presence of uncertainty in the parameters of the system model, better dynamic responses against nonlinear factors such as time delays, and also, robustness against cyberattacks are prominent features of the proposed FPFD-(1+FPFI) controller. In addition, the results of the studies show that the controller, with its fast and accurate performance, reduces the dependence on the energy storage systems to maintain the stability of the system by more than 40%. The efficiency of the proposed controller is also verified through laboratory scale evaluation.

随着可再生能源(RES)集成度的不断提高,如何有效管理微电网(MG)中的负载频率控制(LFC)仍然是一项重大挑战。针对现代微电网运行的复杂性,本研究引入了一种新型两级模糊控制器,旨在增强系统的动态响应。所提出的控制器由两级组成,每一级都包含一个独立自主的模糊推理系统(FIS)。拟议控制器的第一级包括比例(P)和导数(D)控制运算符,第二级则使用比例和积分(I)运算符的组合。建议的模糊 P- 模糊 D 乘以 1+(模糊 P- 模糊 I),即 FPFD-(1+FPFI) 控制器参数是通过解决优化问题来调整的,以减少能源浪费和防止不良的动态响应。控制器参数和各层次的成员函数(MF)均经过优化。优化过程采用了增强型粒子群优化(PSO)算法。通过评估 FPFD-(1+FPFI) 控制器在全可再生 MG 中的性能,证实了它与传统控制器相比具有决定性的优越性。面对需求方或可再生能源生产干扰时频率偏差的减少、系统模型参数存在不确定性时更好的性能、对非线性因素(如时间延迟)更好的动态响应,以及对网络攻击的鲁棒性,都是所提出的 FPFD-(1+FPFI) 控制器的突出特点。此外,研究结果表明,该控制器以其快速、准确的性能,将对储能系统的依赖降低了 40% 以上,从而保持了系统的稳定性。拟议控制器的效率也通过实验室规模的评估得到了验证。
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引用次数: 0
Optimizing and Exploring Untapped Micro-Hydro Hybrid Systems: a Multi-Objective Approach for Crystal Lake as a Large-Scale Energy Storage Solution 优化和探索尚未开发的微型水电混合系统:将水晶湖作为大规模储能解决方案的多目标方法
IF 4.2 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ref.2024.100624
Sharaf K. Magableh, Oraib Dawaghreh, Caisheng Wang

Increasing electricity demand and concerns about climate change and fossil fuel consumption have highlighted the importance of renewable energy resources and storage systems. This paper proposes a method for exploring untapped pumped hydro storage potentials to accommodate intermittent renewable energy generation profiles. Hourly measured data from 2022 in Benzie County, Michigan, United States, were gathered for system sizing and a thorough, realistic analysis. By employing the multi-objective grey wolf optimization algorithm, we formulated optimal sizing and energy-management strategies for three different scenarios. Unlike similar studies, the 3rd with triple objective functions (OFs) scenario aims to maximize both reliability and ecological OFs while minimizing the cost OF. It has shown promising results with multiple solutions, considering economic, environmental, and reliability factors. A case study conducted in Crystal Lake, Michigan, revealed that although Crystal Lake would function only as a micro-hydro power facility, it is a promising and huge storage unit with a substantial storage capacity of around 14.9734GWh. The system investigated is significant in the USA due to its rapid deployment capabilities, minimal construction requirements, and ease of integration with the distribution grid. The fuzzy logic method was employed to identify the best non-dominant solution among the other solutions. These outcomes include a notably low levelized cost of energy at 0.046147$/kWh, a robust index of reliability of 99.705%, and a significant reduction in CO2 emissions amounting to 7.9142×103 tons/year, when considering the triple OFs. The paper’s methodology provides valuable insights for regions aiming to utilize renewable energy from untapped storage sources.

日益增长的电力需求以及对气候变化和化石燃料消耗的担忧,凸显了可再生能源资源和储能系统的重要性。本文提出了一种探索尚未开发的抽水蓄能潜力的方法,以适应间歇性可再生能源发电情况。本文收集了美国密歇根州本齐县 2022 年的每小时测量数据,用于系统选型和全面的现实分析。通过采用多目标灰狼优化算法,我们为三种不同方案制定了最佳规模和能源管理策略。与类似研究不同的是,第三种具有三重目标函数(OFs)的方案旨在最大化可靠性和生态目标函数,同时最小化成本目标函数。考虑到经济、环境和可靠性因素,该方案显示出多种解决方案的良好效果。在密歇根州水晶湖进行的一项案例研究表明,虽然水晶湖只能作为微型水电设施使用,但它是一个前景广阔的巨大储能装置,拥有约 14.9734GWh 的巨大储能容量。由于其快速部署能力、最低的建设要求以及与配电网的轻松集成,所调查的系统在美国具有重要意义。采用模糊逻辑方法从其他解决方案中找出最佳的非主导解决方案。这些成果包括:平准化能源成本明显降低,仅为 0.046147 美元/千瓦时;可靠性指数高达 99.705%;在考虑三重 OFs 的情况下,二氧化碳排放量显著减少,达到 7.9142×103 吨/年。本文的研究方法为旨在利用未开发存储源的可再生能源的地区提供了宝贵的启示。
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引用次数: 0
Technician assignment in multi-shift maintenance schedules in an offshore wind farm 海上风电场多班维修计划中的技术人员分配
IF 4.2 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ref.2024.100616
Md Imran Hasan Tusar , Bhaba R Sarker

Offshore wind farms are becoming more and more important to sustainable energy strategies, yet their maintenance presents unique logistical challenges. The focus of this research is the Technician Assignment Problem (TAP) which involves a complicated and fluctuating scheduling problem. The key objective is to determine the most effective assignment of technicians to maintenance tasks to maximize operational efficiency and ensure reliable service. This study introduces a mathematical optimization model that processes numerous variables—technician availability, skill sets, and temporal constraints—to minimize unmet maintenance needs and ensure equitable workload distribution. The model is based on assumptions derived from actual operational conditions and human resource practices, guaranteeing that its results are not only theoretically valid but also practically feasible. TAP adheres to labor regulations, employs human resource capabilities, and aims for a smart assignment of workforce. It complies with restrictions that prevent excessive work, require breaks, and ensure that technicians are assigned tasks that match their skills, thus promoting the well-being of the workforce and the efficiency of operations. The computational investigation of the model shows that it has a remarkable ability to improve scheduling decisions which effectively reduce unassigned positions and uniformly distribute work hours. In essence, this research contributes a methodologically robust framework to the field of workforce scheduling, with the potential to inform the maintenance strategies of offshore wind farms and similar complex service systems.

海上风电场对可持续能源战略越来越重要,但其维护工作却面临着独特的后勤挑战。本研究的重点是技术人员分配问题(TAP),它涉及一个复杂多变的调度问题。主要目标是确定最有效的技术人员维护任务分配,以最大限度地提高运营效率,确保可靠的服务。本研究引入了一个数学优化模型,对技术人员的可用性、技能组合和时间限制等众多变量进行处理,以最大限度地减少未满足的维护需求,确保工作量的公平分配。该模型基于从实际运行条件和人力资源实践中得出的假设,保证其结果不仅在理论上有效,而且在实践中可行。TAP 遵守劳动法规,利用人力资源能力,实现劳动力的智能分配。它符合防止过度工作、要求休息和确保技术人员分配到与其技能相匹配的任务等限制条件,从而促进了劳动力的福利和运营效率。对模型的计算研究表明,该模型在改进调度决策方面具有显著的能力,能有效减少未分配的岗位,并统一分配工作时间。从本质上讲,这项研究为劳动力调度领域贡献了一个方法稳健的框架,有可能为海上风电场和类似复杂服务系统的维护策略提供参考。
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引用次数: 0
A Three-Step Weather Data Approach in Solar Energy Prediction Using Machine Learning 利用机器学习进行太阳能预测的三步气象数据法
IF 4.2 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ref.2024.100615
Tolulope Olumuyiwa Falope , Liyun Lao , Dawid Hanak

Solar energy plays a critical part in lowering CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases when integrated into the grid. Higher solar energy penetration is hindered by its intermittency leading to reliability issues. To forecast solar energy production, this study suggests a three-step forecasting method that selects weather variables with a moderate to strong positive correlation to solar radiation using Pearson correlation coefficient analysis. Low-level data fusion is used to combine weather inputs from a reliable local weather station and an on-site weather station, significantly improving the forecasting model’s accuracy regardless of the machine learning method used. Weather data was obtained from the Kisanhub Weather Station located in Cranfield University, UK and the meteorological station in Bedford, UK. In addition, PV power supply data was obtained from four solar plants. Using the Regression Learner app in MATLAB, the proposed architecture is tested on a utility scale solar plant (1 MW), showing a 6% and 13% prediction accuracy improvement when compared to solely using data from the on-site and local weather station respectively. It is further validated using data from three residential rooftop solar systems (8 kW, 10.5 kW and 15 kW), achieving root-mean square values of 0.0984, 0.0885, and 0.1425 respectively. The data was pre-processed using both rescaling and list-wise deletion methods. Training and testing data from the 1 MW solar plant was divided into 75% and 25% respectively, while 100% of the residential rooftop solar plants was used for validation.

太阳能并入电网后,在减少二氧化碳排放和其他温室气体方面发挥了重要作用。太阳能的间歇性导致可靠性问题,阻碍了太阳能的更高渗透率。为预测太阳能产量,本研究提出了一种三步预测法,即利用皮尔逊相关系数分析法,选择与太阳辐射具有中度到高度正相关性的天气变量。低层次数据融合用于结合来自可靠的当地气象站和现场气象站的天气输入,无论使用哪种机器学习方法,都能显著提高预测模型的准确性。气象数据来自位于英国克兰菲尔德大学的 Kisanhub 气象站和英国贝德福德的气象站。此外,还从四个太阳能发电厂获得了光伏供电数据。利用 MATLAB 中的回归学习器应用程序,在公用事业规模的太阳能发电厂(1 兆瓦)上测试了所提出的架构,结果显示,与仅使用现场和当地气象站的数据相比,预测准确率分别提高了 6% 和 13%。使用三个住宅屋顶太阳能系统(8 千瓦、10.5 千瓦和 15 千瓦)的数据进一步验证了该架构,其均方根值分别为 0.0984、0.0885 和 0.1425。数据预处理采用了重新缩放和列表删除两种方法。来自 1 兆瓦太阳能发电厂的训练数据和测试数据分别占 75% 和 25%,而住宅屋顶太阳能发电厂的数据则 100% 用于验证。
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