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Examining the Effect of Urban Household Food Insecurity on Fertility in Lideta Sub-City, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 研究埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴利德塔次级城市城市家庭粮食不安全对生育率的影响
Pub Date : 2023-11-15 DOI: 10.56556/gssr.v2i4.600
Ephrem Tadesse Goda, Terefe Degefa Boshera, Mengistu Ketema Aredo
Despite investment and support for family planning in developing countries, some people living in poverty are hesitant to use modern birth control methods, and usage rates are insufficient. Improved reproductive health is directly related to enhanced nutrition, while optimal nutrition fosters superior reproductive health outcomes. This study aims to examine the relationship between household food insecurity and fertility in Lideta Sub-City, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. A study was conducted on 649 reproductive-age women in three randomly selected Woredas (districts) from a sub-city from February to March 2023. Data was collected through a validated survey by trained individuals, and household income and expenditure were used to measure food insecurity access. Poisson regressions were used to examine the connection between household food insecurity and fertility, considering other covariates. The result of the study shows that food insecurity status was a significant predictor of the number of children ever born. The number of children ever born for women within food-secure households is 0.655 times lower compared to women with food insecurity. Similarly, the age of the mother, marital status, contraceptive use, women's income, and childhood mortality were significant in predicting the effect of the number of children ever born at P < 0.05. Household food insecurity exhibits a negative correlation with the number of children ever born. Thus, it is imperative to recognize food insecurity as a barrier that must be addressed when developing family planning services.
尽管发展中国家对计划生育进行了投资并提供了支持,但一些贫困人口对使用现代节育方法仍犹豫不决,使用率也不足。生殖健康状况的改善与营养状况的改善直接相关,而最佳的营养状况又能促进生殖健康状况的改善。本研究旨在探讨埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴利德塔次级城市家庭粮食不安全与生育率之间的关系。研究于 2023 年 2 月至 3 月期间在一个次级城市的三个随机选取的县(区)对 649 名育龄妇女进行了调查。数据由经过培训的人员通过有效调查收集,并使用家庭收入和支出来衡量粮食不安全状况。在考虑其他协变量的情况下,采用泊松回归法研究家庭粮食不安全与生育率之间的联系。研究结果表明,粮食不安全状况是预测生育子女数量的一个重要因素。与粮食无保障的妇女相比,粮食无保障家庭的妇女生育子女的数量要少 0.655 倍。同样,母亲年龄、婚姻状况、避孕药具使用情况、妇女收入和儿童死亡率对预测出生子女数的影响也很显著,P < 0.05。家庭粮食不安全与新生儿数量呈负相关。因此,必须认识到粮食不安全是发展计划生育服务时必须解决的一个障碍。
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引用次数: 0
Interaction of Capitals and the Climate Change Vulnerabilities: A Study on Santal People of Ramdevpur Abasan of Barind Tract Region of Bangladesh 资本与气候变化脆弱性的相互作用:对孟加拉国巴林德地区拉姆德夫普尔阿巴桑桑塔尔人的研究
Pub Date : 2023-11-15 DOI: 10.56556/gssr.v2i4.628
James Soren
In spite of Bangladesh's vulnerability to climate change because of its geographical location, geomorphology, and greater dependence on nature, all the communities of the country are not vulnerable to climate change in the same ways. The Santals of Bangladesh are one of the most climate change-vulnerable communities because they are marginalized because they have fewer physical, natural, economic, human, and social capitals. Truly, there is much research on the climate change vulnerability of Bangladesh; however, existing research does not discuss this matter. This research was conducted with the objectives of knowing the interaction between Bangladeshi Santals’ different types of capital, the effects of climate change, and the vulnerability of indigenous peoples to climate change. Following the qualitative methodology, this research found that Santals of research field are already marginalized because of having no ownership of land, homesteads and livestock, least access to fresh water, naturally-grown vegetables, trees, and crop seeds), no alternative income sources, less annual income and savings, less educational qualifications, less or no knowledge about climate change, no training on climate change and climate change adaptation, no skills for alternative income, and no access to prior warning about natural calamities, less connectivity to organizations, least access to government services, and having few helpful kin relatives, and interaction among these capitals; climate change effects are making them more vulnerable.
尽管孟加拉国因其地理位置、地貌和对自然的更大依赖而易受气候变化的影响,但该国所有社区易受气候变化影响的方式并不相同。孟加拉国的山塔尔人是最易受气候变化影响的群体之一,因为他们被边缘化了,因为他们拥有的物质、自然、经济、人力和社会资本较少。诚然,关于孟加拉国气候变化脆弱性的研究很多,但现有研究并未讨论这一问题。本研究旨在了解孟加拉国山特人不同类型资本之间的相互作用、气候变化的影响以及原住民对气候变化的脆弱性。根据定性方法,本研究发现,研究地区的山塔尔人已经被边缘化,因为他们没有土地、宅基地和牲畜的所有权,最不容易获得淡水、自然生长的蔬菜、树木和农作物种子),没有其他收入来源,年收入和储蓄较少,学历较低、对气候变化知之甚少或一无所知,没有接受过气候变化和适应气候变化方面的培训,没有获得替代收入的技能,无法事先获得自然灾害的预警,与组织的联系较少,获得政府服务的机会最少,帮助他们的亲属和这些资本之间的互动较少;气候变化的影响使他们更加脆弱。
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引用次数: 0
A review of the industrial use and global sustainability of Cannabis sativa 大麻的工业使用和全球可持续性综述
Pub Date : 2023-10-02 DOI: 10.56556/gssr.v2i4.597
Asif Raihan, Tashdid Rahman Bijoy
The Cannabis plant (Cannabis sativa L.), also known as hemp, is a sustainable and multipurpose plant that may be used for a wide range of purposes, from the fiber in its stalks to the food in its seeds to the oil in its flowers and seeds. Since the Cannabis plant has been recognized to be an outstanding carbon trap and environmentally friendly biofuel that supports all three aspects of sustainability—the economy, the environment, and society—it may provide a solution to the climate change dilemma. The cultivation of the Cannabis plant has been practiced as a dietary staple in numerous places across the globe for an extended period. However, its production has been prohibited in several countries mostly owing to its relationship with illicit drug consumption. The illegality of the plant has impeded research efforts for an extended period of time on a global scale. As a result, people's ability to assess the whole range of beneficial effects and dangers shrank. However, the global trend toward Cannabis legalization and decriminalization has accelerated in recent years. This has stimulated more investigation into the botanical, ecological, and practical aspects of the plant. This study reviewed the available literature to understand more about the Cannabis plant's global sustainability. The results demonstrated the potential of Cannabis plants to affect product sustainability and the use of hemp as a renewable raw material. Furthermore, this review outlines the connections between the Cannabis plant and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations. This research fills a gap in our understanding of the Cannabis plant's sustainability as a highly promising multi-purpose crop for the future.
大麻植物(大麻sativa L.),也被称为大麻,是一种可持续的多用途植物,可以用于广泛的目的,从茎中的纤维到种子中的食物,再到花和种子中的油。由于大麻植物已被公认为是一种杰出的碳捕集器和环境友好型生物燃料,它支持可持续发展的所有三个方面——经济、环境和社会——它可能为气候变化困境提供解决方案。大麻植物的种植已经在全球许多地方作为一种主食进行了很长一段时间。然而,几个国家已禁止其生产,主要是由于其与非法药物消费的关系。这种植物的非法性在很长一段时间内阻碍了全球范围内的研究努力。结果,人们评估整个有益影响和危险范围的能力下降了。然而,近年来,全球大麻合法化和非犯罪化的趋势加快了。这激发了对该植物的植物学、生态学和实用方面的更多研究。本研究回顾了现有文献,以了解更多关于大麻植物的全球可持续性。结果表明,大麻植物的潜力,影响产品的可持续性和使用大麻作为一种可再生原料。此外,本综述概述了大麻植物与联合国可持续发展目标(sdg)之间的联系。这项研究填补了我们对大麻植物作为未来极有前途的多用途作物的可持续性的理解的空白。
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引用次数: 2
Sustainable Development in Europe: A Review of the Forestry Sector's Social, Environmental, and Economic Dynamics 欧洲的可持续发展:林业部门的社会、环境和经济动态综述
Pub Date : 2023-09-24 DOI: 10.56556/gssr.v2i3.585
Asif Raihan
Despite their resilience, forest ecosystems become increasingly impacted by extreme climatic events, fires, and pathogen outbursts, which have considerable economic repercussions. How forest management solves these difficulties will affect human health, environmental variety, productivity, and forest ecosystem recuperation from exogenic distresses. Assuming forests provide ecosystem services essential to society and humanity along with wood, a better understanding of forest ecosystems seems essential to defining a development policy that meets ecological safeguard and energy and climate goals. According to the UN 2030 Agenda's Sustainable Development Goals, European forest management practices still don't provide a clear picture of ecological conditions, monetary estimate, and biodiversity. In light of the existing research, this article reviews and discusses recent European forestry industry trends and the environmental-economic nexus' complexity. Wood use has social consequences for regions adapting to ecological change, from rising temperatures to landscape modifications. This paper confirms that the technical-economic dimensions of forestry affect short-term economic dynamics, sector growth prospects, supply chain organization, company interconnections, and investment strategies. Forestry practices conserve species and habitats while boosting sustainable timber production. The European Commission's policy direction is to gradually encourage public and private entities to embark on worthy circular economy pathways, which will result in more jobs, material recycling, minimized carbon emissions, and community-added value. Forestry should contribute more holistically to sustainable development at diverse spatial dimensions. This includes focusing on environmental and economic aims in light of the recognition of relevant features that may guide forthcoming research and policy action while enhancing cooperation among member nations and local experts.
尽管森林生态系统具有复原力,但它们越来越多地受到极端气候事件、火灾和病原体爆发的影响,这些事件对经济产生了相当大的影响。森林管理如何解决这些困难将影响人类健康、环境多样性、生产力和森林生态系统从外源损害中恢复。假设森林与木材一起提供对社会和人类至关重要的生态系统服务,那么更好地了解森林生态系统似乎对于制定符合生态保护、能源和气候目标的发展政策至关重要。根据联合国2030年可持续发展目标,欧洲森林管理实践仍然没有提供生态条件、货币估算和生物多样性的清晰画面。在现有研究的基础上,本文回顾和讨论了欧洲林业产业的发展趋势和环境经济关系的复杂性。木材的使用对适应生态变化的地区产生了社会影响,从气温上升到景观改变。本文证实,林业的技术经济维度影响短期经济动态、部门增长前景、供应链组织、公司联系和投资策略。林业实践保护物种和栖息地,同时促进可持续木材生产。欧盟委员会的政策方向是逐步鼓励公共和私营实体走上有价值的循环经济道路,这将带来更多的就业机会,材料回收,最大限度地减少碳排放,并增加社区价值。林业应在不同空间维度上更全面地促进可持续发展。这包括在认识到可能指导即将开展的研究和政策行动的有关特点的同时,把重点放在环境和经济目标上,同时加强成员国和当地专家之间的合作。
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引用次数: 4
Transforming Pakistan's Agriculture Sector through Fintech: Opportunities for Financial Inclusion and Sustainable Development 通过金融科技改造巴基斯坦农业部门:普惠金融和可持续发展的机遇
Pub Date : 2023-09-14 DOI: 10.56556/gssr.v2i3.568
Syed Asad Ali Shah, Syed Ali Mujtaba Zaidi
This study investigates how fintech solutions can increase financial inclusion for smallholder farmers and other stakeholders in Pakistan's agriculture sector. Using a thematic literature review, the study identifies effective and sustainable fintech solutions and explores the challenges and opportunities for scaling up these solutions. The study found that digital platforms for loans, payments, and market linkages have the potential to provide farmers with greater access to finance and other financial services. To promote financial inclusion, the study recommends that policymakers, investors, and fintech startups prioritize the development of fintech solutions that address the specific needs of smallholder farmers and other underserved communities. These solutions should be designed to promote trust and transparency to ensure their long-term sustainability. The study also calls for greater collaboration between the fintech and agriculture sectors to develop innovative solutions and promote financial inclusion in Pakistan's agriculture sector. The findings of this study have important implications for promoting financial inclusion in Pakistan's agriculture sector, which is a vital contributor to the country's economy. The study provides valuable insights for policymakers, investors, and fintech startups who are interested in leveraging fintech solutions to transform the sector and promote financial access and empowerment for underserved communities.
本研究调查了金融科技解决方案如何为巴基斯坦农业部门的小农和其他利益相关者增加金融包容性。通过专题文献综述,本研究确定了有效和可持续的金融科技解决方案,并探讨了扩大这些解决方案的挑战和机遇。研究发现,贷款、支付和市场联系的数字平台有潜力为农民提供更多的融资和其他金融服务。为了促进金融包容性,该研究建议政策制定者、投资者和金融科技初创公司优先考虑开发满足小农和其他服务不足社区特定需求的金融科技解决方案。这些解决方案的设计应促进信任和透明度,以确保其长期可持续性。该研究还呼吁加强金融科技和农业部门之间的合作,以开发创新解决方案,促进巴基斯坦农业部门的金融包容性。本研究的结果对促进巴基斯坦农业部门的金融包容性具有重要意义,农业部门是该国经济的重要贡献者。该研究为决策者、投资者和金融科技初创公司提供了有价值的见解,他们有兴趣利用金融科技解决方案来改变该行业,促进服务不足社区的金融准入和赋权。
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引用次数: 0
Comparative Analysis of Sustainable Finance Initiatives in Asia and Africa: A Path towards Global Sustainability 亚洲和非洲可持续金融倡议的比较分析:全球可持续发展之路
Pub Date : 2023-08-04 DOI: 10.56556/gssr.v2i3.559
Ashraf Muhammad, Taiwo Ibitomi, Dada Durotimi Amos, Mohammed Bello Idris, Aisha Ahmad Ishaq
This article conducts a meticulous comparative analysis of sustainable finance initiatives in Asia and Africa, exploring their impact, efficacy, impediments, and prospects towards global sustainability. The study seeks to identify similarities and differences between the two regions, uncovering their strengths and weaknesses to inform prudent strategies and best practices for advancing sustainable development worldwide. Emphasizing the significance of sustainable finance as a catalyst for ecologically sound and socially responsible investments, the research examines regulatory frameworks, financial innovation, and successful case studies in both regions. Asia's accomplishments are exemplified by mechanisms like green bonds, impact investment funds, and sustainability-linked loans, bolstered by collaborative efforts, capacity building, and data transparency. Similarly, Africa's potential shines through robust regulations, financial innovation, and capacity-building initiatives that attract sustainable investments and foster transformative development. The article concludes with recommendations to enhance global sustainable finance, emphasizing clear regulatory frameworks, integrating sustainability in financial institutions, and investing in comprehensive capacity building programs.
本文对亚洲和非洲的可持续金融举措进行了细致的比较分析,探讨了它们对全球可持续发展的影响、功效、障碍和前景。该研究旨在确定这两个地区之间的异同,揭示其优势和劣势,为促进全球可持续发展的审慎战略和最佳做法提供信息。该研究强调了可持续金融作为生态友好型和社会责任型投资催化剂的重要性,考察了两个地区的监管框架、金融创新和成功案例研究。绿色债券、影响力投资基金和与可持续发展相关的贷款等机制体现了亚洲的成就,并得到了合作努力、能力建设和数据透明度的支持。同样,通过强有力的监管、金融创新和吸引可持续投资和促进转型发展的能力建设倡议,非洲的潜力也将得到释放。文章最后提出了加强全球可持续金融的建议,强调明确的监管框架,将可持续性纳入金融机构,并投资于全面的能力建设项目。
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引用次数: 1
The future of green policing: A Delphi-based forecast of sustainability indicators for law enforcers 绿色警务的未来:基于德尔菲的执法可持续性指标预测
Pub Date : 2023-08-04 DOI: 10.56556/gssr.v2i3.556
Alvin Romualdo, Ava Robles
The environment holds a vital position within the framework of sustainable development, serving as the foundation upon which social and economic progress relies. However, its vulnerability and the market failures resulting from its degradation pose significant challenges to achieving sustainability. This study was conducted to gain valuable insights into the present and future performance of police officers concerning their role in advancing environmental sustainability. As a result of the consensus among the experts, a total of thirty (30) forecasted sustainability indicators for Green Policing were generated. These indicators represent the combined perspectives and agreements of the experts regarding the essential elements and factors involved in the implementation of Green Policing practices. The indicators are categorized into four themes that emerged from the analysis: Green Police Operations, Green Behavior and Awareness, Environmental Law Enforcement, and Community Partnerships and Engagement. These themes provide a comprehensive framework for guiding and assessing the implementation of Green Policing initiatives in various contexts. In light of these findings, it is strongly recommended that law enforcement agencies operating in the SOCCSKSARGEN region integrate these identified sustainability indicators into their Green Policing strategies. By doing so, they can effectively align their practices with the principles of environmental sustainability and contribute to the overall advancement of Green Policing initiatives. Recognizing the interdependencies and taking concerted actions to address these issues, societies can pave the way for a more resilient and harmonious relationship with the environment, fostering a sustainable future for generations to come.
环境在可持续发展的框架内占有至关重要的地位,是社会和经济进步所依赖的基础。然而,它的脆弱性和其退化造成的市场失灵对实现可持续性构成重大挑战。本研究旨在深入了解警务人员现时及未来在促进环境可持续发展方面的表现。专家们达成共识的结果是,总共产生了30个预测绿色警务可持续性指标。这些指标代表了专家对实施绿色警务措施所涉及的基本要素和因素的综合观点和共识。这些指标被分为四个主题:绿色警察行动、绿色行为和意识、环境执法、社区伙伴关系和参与。这些主题为指导和评估在不同情况下实施绿色警务措施提供了一个全面的框架。鉴于这些发现,强烈建议SOCCSKSARGEN地区的执法机构将这些确定的可持续性指标纳入其绿色警务战略。这样,他们就能有效地使他们的工作符合环境可持续发展的原则,并为全面推进绿色警务工作作出贡献。认识到相互依存关系并采取协调一致的行动来解决这些问题,社会才能为与环境建立更具复原力和和谐的关系铺平道路,为子孙后代创造可持续的未来。
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引用次数: 0
Researching Offshore Facilities and Choosing an Appropriate Platform for Hydrate Extraction in the Bay of Bengal 孟加拉湾海上水合物开采设施研究与平台选择
Pub Date : 2023-07-05 DOI: 10.56556/gssr.v2i3.516
Commodore Md Munir Hasan, Agroza Ema, Sadman Sanim, Agroza Ahmed
Offshore buildings are used in various locations and sea depths for several reasons. Different equipment, platforms, and design techniques are needed depending on water depth, climatic conditions, structural arrangement, and new concepts. Offshore constructions usually generate and transport oil, gas, and other commodities. Bangladesh has yet to use the Bay of Bengal's hydrocarbon potential for oil and gas. Bangladesh lags behind India and Myanmar in maritime oil and gas discovery. In 50 years, Bangladesh's sea barriers have yielded no benefits. Bangladesh's economy is hindered by its high crude oil imports. Focus on offshore petroleum exploration to locate "black gold" now. Therefore, an offshore structure is needed. This thesis paper covers the fundamentals of all offshore systems, broadens the research, and recommends appropriate platforms for various sea-water depths, which those platforms are meant to be built for hydrates predicted in the Bay of Bengal. The paper uses the Bay of Bengal sedimentation and estimated water depth to choose offshore constructions. The country's maritime boundaries have 26 oil and gas blocks. There are 11 in shallow water and 15 in deep sea. According to statistics, the blocks are on the continental shelf and deep-water region. Five zones make up the Bay of Bengal continental shelf. They are shores A-B, B-C, C-D, D-E, and E-F after region F continental slope continues till the deep sea area. The continental slope zone C-D has 64-106 m water depth. Therefore, the Bay of Bengal continental shelf is suitable for all permanent offshore buildings except this zone. Only concrete gravity platforms fit this zone. We need the technology to search for oil and gas in water. It takes a lot of work to get foreign companies to work together. Thus, skilled people should work on it and encourage government or private businesses to develop oil and gas production technology.
由于几个原因,近海建筑被用于不同的位置和海洋深处。根据水深、气候条件、结构布置和新概念,需要不同的设备、平台和设计技术。海上建筑通常生产和运输石油、天然气和其他商品。孟加拉国尚未利用孟加拉湾的碳氢化合物潜力来开采石油和天然气。孟加拉国在海上油气勘探方面落后于印度和缅甸。50年来,孟加拉国的海上屏障没有带来任何好处。孟加拉国的经济受到高原油进口的阻碍。现在集中海上石油勘探寻找“黑金”。因此,需要一个海上结构。本文涵盖了所有近海系统的基本原理,拓宽了研究范围,并推荐了适合不同海水深度的平台,这些平台旨在为孟加拉湾预测的水合物建造。本文利用孟加拉湾的沉积和估计的水深来选择近海工程。该国的海上边界有26个石油和天然气区块。有11个在浅水区,15个在深海。据统计,这些块体位于大陆架和深水区。五个区域组成了孟加拉湾大陆架。F区陆坡延伸至深海区后分别为A-B、B-C、C-D、D-E、E-F海岸。C-D陆坡带水深64 ~ 106 m。因此,孟加拉湾大陆架适用于除该区域以外的所有永久性海上建筑。只有混凝土重力平台适合这个区域。我们需要在水中寻找石油和天然气的技术。让外国公司合作需要做很多工作。因此,技术人员应该致力于此,并鼓励政府或私营企业开发石油和天然气生产技术。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of using P.juliflora leaves as additive in anaerobic digestion of poultry wastes 绿草叶添加剂对家禽粪便厌氧消化的影响
Pub Date : 2023-06-23 DOI: 10.56556/gssr.v2i2.518
J. Babatola, Olalekan Olotu, Ayoola E. Awode, A. Adelodun
This study explores the influence of P.juliflora leaves as an additive in the anaerobic digestion of poultry droppings from layers and broilers. Six digesters (A, B, C, D, E, and F) were used with a retention time of 31 days. The dry weight content of the digesters include: 100% layer wastes (control), 100% broiler wastes (control), 95% layer wastes + 5% P. juliflora leaves, 90% layer wastes + 10% P. juliflora leaves, 95% broiler wastes + 5% P. juliflora leaves, and 90% broiler wastes + 10% P. juliflora leaves. Layer wastes plus 5% Prosopis Juliflora created 18% more biogas than layer wastes alone, and layer wastes plus 10% Prosopis Juliflora produced 22% more biogas than layer wastes alone, which was the control set-up. In comparison to digester broiler wastes alone, broiler wastes plus 5% and broiler wastes plus 10% both produced 20% and 24% more biogas, respectively. In conclusion, adding 5 and 10 percent of Prosopis Juliflora to poultry manure from layers or broilers has significantly increased the generation of biogas. Broiler wastes plus 10% Prosopis Juliflora yielded the most amount of methane and least amount of hydrogen sulfide, which makes it the most suitable substrate.
本研究探讨了豆瓣草叶作为添加剂对蛋鸡和肉鸡粪便厌氧消化的影响。采用A、B、C、D、E、F 6个消化器,停留时间为31天。消化器的干重含量为:100%蛋鸡废物(对照)、100%肉鸡废物(对照)、95%蛋鸡废物+ 5%胡胡拉叶、90%蛋鸡废物+ 10%胡胡拉叶、95%肉鸡废物+ 5%胡胡拉叶、90%肉鸡废物+ 10%胡胡拉叶。在对照设置中,分层废弃物加5%的紫豆藻产生的沼气比分层废弃物单独产生的沼气多18%,分层废弃物加10%的紫豆藻比分层废弃物单独产生的沼气多22%。与单独消化肉仔鸡粪便相比,加5%和加10%的肉仔鸡粪便分别多产生20%和24%的沼气。综上所述,在蛋鸡和肉鸡粪便中添加5%和10%的绿豆豆可显著提高沼气的产生量。肉鸡粪便加10%的黄豆菌产生的甲烷量最多,硫化氢量最少,是最合适的底物。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial analysis of flash flood and Drought impact from Climate Change in Phongsaly District, Phogsaly Province, by using Geo-Informatics Technology and Modelling 基于地理信息技术和模型的Phogsaly省丰萨利地区气候变化对山洪干旱影响空间分析
Pub Date : 2023-06-22 DOI: 10.56556/gssr.v2i3.515
Sanxay Boutsamaly, Chankhachone Sonemanivong, Soulyphan Kannitha, Phoummixay Siharath, Somchay Vilaychaleun, Khampasith Thammathevo, Amphayvanh Oudomdeth, Tavanh Kittiphone
A method for predicting the water resource in the region in the future to be used as a basis for mitigating the consequences is to study how climate change affects hydrology. The purpose of this study is to i). choose a global climate model that is suitable for the area, ii). rainfall run-off modelling, iii). drought and flood hazard index map. The SSP-126, SSP-245, and SSP-585 scenarios were chosen as the most appropriate global climate model among the four institutes, with efficiency criteria using the coefficient of Nash-Sutcliffe and Kling-Gupta and then calibrate the data with the Bias Correction Linear Scaling method which divides the analysis period into 2 periods for Near-Future and Far-Future from analyzing Rainfall Run-off Modeling from Rainfall Concentration 1-hours, 3-hours and 6-hours. It was found that the SSP-585 scenario in the Rainfall Concentration 1-hours model has the most dangerous area for very high risk until the end of the 21st century. For the analysis of drought indices SPI_1, SPI_3 and SPI_6 in Near-Future, it was found that the frequency of droughts is increasing according to the worst scenario, the scenario with the most drought is SSP-585 and in the Far-Future, the frequency of drought is decreasing according to the worst scenario, the scenario with the most drought is SSP-126.
研究气候变化对水文的影响是预测该地区未来水资源的一种方法,可以作为缓解气候变化后果的依据。本研究的目的是i)选择适合该地区的全球气候模型,ii)降雨径流模型,iii)旱涝灾害指数图。选择SSP-126、SSP-245和SSP-585情景作为4个研究所最适合的全球气候模式,采用纳什-苏特克利夫系数和克林- gupta系数作为效率标准,通过分析降雨径流模型1小时、3小时和6小时,将分析周期分为近未来和远未来2个周期,采用偏差校正线性标度方法对数据进行校准。结果表明,到21世纪末,降雨浓度1小时模式中的SSP-585情景具有极高风险的最危险区域。对近期干旱指数SPI_1、SPI_3和SPI_6的分析发现,在最坏情景下,干旱频率呈增加趋势,最干旱情景为SSP-585;在遥远未来,最干旱情景为SSP-126,干旱频率呈减少趋势。
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引用次数: 0
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Global Sustainability Research
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