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Barómetro OMT del Turismo Mundial y anexo estadístico, enero 2024 联合国世界旅游组织世界旅游业晴雨表和统计附件,2024 年 1 月
Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI: 10.18111/wtobarometeresp.2024.22.1.1
International tourism to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2024 An estimated 1286 million international tourists (overnight visitors) were recorded around the world in 2023, an increase of 34% over 2022. International tourism recovered 88% of prepandemic levels, supported by strong pent-up demand. The Middle East led the recovery by regions in relative terms, being the only region to overcome pre-pandemic levels with arrivals 22% above 2019. Europe reached 94% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023, while Africa recovered 96% and the Americas 90%. Asia and the Pacific reached 65% of pre-pandemic levels, with a gradual recovery since the start of 2023. Four subregions: North Africa, Central America (both +5%), Southern Mediterranean Europe and the Caribbean (both +1%) exceeded pre-pandemic levels in 2023. Total export revenues from tourism (including passenger transport) are estimated at USD 1.6 trillion in 2023, almost 95% of the USD 1.7 trillion recorded in 2019. Preliminary estimates of tourism direct gross domestic product (TDGDP) point to USD 3.3 trillion in 2023, or 3% of global GDP, the same level as in 2019, driven by both domestic and international travel. Following a strong rebound in 2023, international tourism is expected to fully recover pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with initial estimates pointing to 2% growth above 2019 levels in international tourist arrivals. The positive outlook for the sector is reflected in the latest UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index survey, with 67% of tourism professionals indicating better or much better prospects for 2024 compared to 2023. The unleashing of remaining pent-up demand, increased air connectivity, and a stronger recovery of Asian markets and destinations are expected to underpin a full recovery by the end of 2024. Economic and geopolitical challenges continue to pose significant risks to the sustained recovery of international tourism and confidence levels.
2024 年国际旅游业将达到疫情前水平 2023 年全球国际游客(过夜游客)估计为 1.28 亿人次,比 2022 年增长 34%。在被压抑的强劲需求的支撑下,国际旅游业恢复到疫情爆发前水平的 88%。相对而言,中东地区引领了各地区的复苏,是唯一超过大流行前水平的地区,其入境人数比 2019 年增长了 22%。欧洲在 2023 年达到了大流行前水平的 94%,非洲恢复了 96%,美洲恢复了 90%。亚洲和太平洋地区达到疫情流行前水平的 65%,自 2023 年开始逐步恢复。四个次区域北非、中美洲(均+5%)、南地中海欧洲和加勒比海(均+1%)在 2023 年超过了大流行前的水平。2023 年旅游业出口总收入(包括客运)预计为 1.6 万亿美元,几乎是 2019 年 1.7 万亿美元的 95%。旅游业直接国内生产总值(TDGDP)的初步估计显示,2023 年将达到 3.3 万亿美元,占全球 GDP 的 3%,与 2019 年持平,这主要是受国内和国际旅游的推动。继 2023 年强劲反弹之后,国际旅游业预计将在 2024 年全面恢复大流行前的水平,初步估计国际游客抵达人数将比 2019 年增长 2%。联合国世界旅游组织最新的旅游信心指数调查反映了旅游业的积极前景,67%的旅游专业人士表示,与2023年相比,2024年的前景更好或好得多。剩余被压抑的需求得到释放、航空连通性的提高以及亚洲市场和目的地的强劲复苏,有望支撑旅游业在 2024 年底实现全面复苏。经济和地缘政治挑战继续对国际旅游业的持续复苏和信心水平构成重大风险。
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引用次数: 0
Barómetro OMT del Turismo Mundial y anexo estadístico, enero 2022 世界旅游组织世界旅游晴雨表和统计附件,2022年1月
Pub Date : 2022-01-31 DOI: 10.18111/wtobarometeresp.2022.20.1.1
International tourism up 4% in 2021 but still 72% below pre-pandemic levels Global tourism experienced a mild 4% upturn in 2021, with 15 million more international tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) than in 2020 but remained 72% below the levels of pre-pandemic year 2019 according to preliminary estimates. This follows a 73% plunge in international travel in 2020, the worst year on record for tourism due to the COVID-19 pandemic. International tourism rebounded moderately in the second half of 2021, with international arrivals down 62% in both the third and fourth quarters, compared to the same periods in 2019. Rising vaccination rates combined with softer travel restrictions due to increased cross-border coordination and protocols, have all helped release pent up demand in 2021. Europe and the Americas recorded the strongest results by region relative to 2020 with arrivals up 19% and 17% respectively, though they remained 62% and 63% below 2019 levels. Africa saw a 12% increase in 2021 compared to 2020, though remained 74% below 2019 levels. In the Middle East arrivals declined 24% compared to 2020 and 79% over 2019. In Asia and the Pacific, arrivals dropped 65% from 2020 levels and 94% when compared to pre-pandemic values. By subregion, the Caribbean saw the best performance in 2021, with international arrivals up 63% over 2020, though 37% below 2019, with some destinations coming close to, or exceeding pre-pandemic levels. The economic contribution of tourism (tourism direct gross domestic product) is estimated at US$1.9 trillion in 2021, above the US$1.6 trillion in 2020, but still well below the pre-pandemic value of US$ 3.5 trillion. The latest UNWTO Panel of Experts survey indicates that 61% of tourism professionals expect better performance in 2022 than in 2021. However, most experts (64%) also believe international tourism will not return to 2019 levels until 2024 or later. The recent surge in COVID-19 cases and the emergence of the Omicron variant could disrupt the recovery of tourism in early 2022. UNWTO scenarios point to 30% to 78% growth in international tourist arrivals in 2022 depending on various factors. This would be 50% to 63% below pre-pandemic levels. While international tourism bounces back, domestic tourism will continue to drive the recovery of the sector in an increasing number of destinations. Domestic travel is fueled by demand for destinations which are closer to home and have low population density, as tourists look for open-air activities, nature-based products and rural tourism.
根据初步估计,2021年全球旅游业出现了4%的温和增长,国际游客人数(过夜游客)比2020年增加了1500万,但仍比2019年大流行前的水平低72%。此前,由于2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行,2020年国际旅游暴跌73%,是有记录以来旅游业最糟糕的一年。国际旅游业在2021年下半年温和反弹,第三和第四季度的国际游客人数与2019年同期相比下降了62%。疫苗接种率的上升,加上跨境协调和协议的加强,旅行限制有所松动,都有助于释放2021年被压抑的需求。与2020年相比,欧洲和美洲的地区表现最为强劲,游客人数分别增长19%和17%,但仍比2019年低62%和63%。与2020年相比,非洲2021年增长了12%,但仍比2019年低74%。中东地区的入境人数比2020年下降24%,比2019年下降79%。在亚洲和太平洋地区,入境人数比2020年下降了65%,与大流行前的水平相比下降了94%。按次区域划分,加勒比地区在2021年的表现最好,国际入境人数比2020年增长63%,但比2019年低37%,一些目的地接近或超过大流行前的水平。2021年,旅游业的经济贡献(旅游业直接国内生产总值)估计为1.9万亿美元,高于2020年的1.6万亿美元,但仍远低于大流行前的3.5万亿美元。最新的联合国世界旅游组织专家小组调查显示,61%的旅游专业人士预计2022年的表现将比2021年更好。然而,大多数专家(64%)也认为,国际旅游业要到2024年或更晚才能恢复到2019年的水平。最近COVID-19病例的激增和欧米克隆变种的出现可能会破坏2022年初旅游业的复苏。根据联合国世界旅游组织的预测,根据各种因素,2022年国际游客人数将增长30%至78%。这将比大流行前的水平低50%至63%。在国际旅游业反弹的同时,国内旅游业将继续推动越来越多目的地旅游业的复苏。由于游客喜欢户外活动、自然产品和乡村旅游,对离家更近、人口密度低的目的地的需求推动了国内旅游。
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引用次数: 1
Barómetro OMT del Turismo Mundial y anexo estadístico, Julio 2021 世界旅游组织世界旅游晴雨表和统计附件,2021年7月
Pub Date : 2021-07-28 DOI: 10.18111/wtobarometeresp.2021.19.1.4
La traducción sólo cubre el anexo estadístico. Los otros capítulos se publican en el idioma original (inglés). International travel largely on hold despite uptick in May 2021 International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) dropped by 85% in January-May 2021 compared to the same period of pre-pandemic year 2019, or 65% over 2020, as travel restrictions remained high due to the coronavirus pandemic. This follows an unprecedented drop of 73% in 2020, the worst year on record for international tourism This sharp decline represents a loss of some 147 million international arrivals compared to the same five months of 2020, or 460 million compared to 2019. By regions, Asia and the Pacific continued to suffer the largest decline with a 95% drop in international arrivals in the first five months of 2021 over the same period in 2019. Europe (-85%) recorded the second largest decline in arrivals, followed by the Middle East (-83%) and Africa (-81%). The Americas (-72%) saw a comparatively smaller decrease. Despite the weak results, international tourism saw a minor uptick in May 2021 with arrivals declining by 82% (versus May 2019), after falling by 86% in April, as some destinations started to ease travel restrictions and consumer confidence rose slightly. After an estimated 64% plunge in international tourism receipts in 2020, destinations continued to report very weak revenues in the first five months of 2021, ranging from 50% to 90% declines compared to 2019. However, several countries recorded a small uptick in the month of May following a minor improvement in international arrivals. In terms of outbound travel among the top 20 source markets, Saudi Arabia (-42%) and Belgium (-46%) saw relatively better results in January-May 2021, as well as the Republic of Korea, Malaysia and Switzerland, all recording 50% declines in international tourism expenditure compared to the same period in 2019. France is also worth noting, with -54% in expenditure compared to 2019. International travel is slowly picking up from very low levels, though the recovery remains fragile and uneven amid much uncertainty. Domestic travel is driving the recovery of tourism in several destinations, especially those with large domestic markets. Domestic air seat capacity in China and Russia has already exceeded pre-crisis levels. Along with the ongoing vaccination roll-out, the safe and responsible restart of tourism will continue to depend on a coordinated response among countries regarding travel restrictions, harmonized safety protocols and effective communication to help restore consumer confidence.
La traducción sólo cubre el anexo estadístico。Los otros capítulos se publican enel idioma original (inglsamys)。由于冠状病毒大流行导致的旅行限制仍然很高,2021年1月至5月的国际游客(过夜游客)与2019年大流行前的同期相比下降了85%,比2020年下降了65%。此前,国际旅游业在2020年出现了前所未有的73%的下降,这是有记录以来最糟糕的一年。这一急剧下降意味着,与2020年同期相比,国际游客减少了约1.47亿人次,与2019年相比减少了4.6亿人次。按地区划分,亚太地区继续遭受最大降幅,2021年前5个月国际游客人数比2019年同期下降95%。欧洲(-85%)录得第二大入境人数下降,其次是中东(-83%)和非洲(-81%)。美洲(-72%)的降幅相对较小。尽管结果疲弱,但随着一些目的地开始放松旅行限制,消费者信心略有上升,2021年5月国际旅游业出现小幅增长,入境人数下降82%(与2019年5月相比),4月下降86%。在2020年国际旅游收入估计暴跌64%之后,目的地在2021年前五个月的收入继续非常疲软,与2019年相比下降了50%至90%。然而,在国际入境人数略有改善之后,几个国家在5月份录得小幅上升。就前20大客源市场的出境游而言,沙特阿拉伯(-42%)和比利时(-46%)在2021年1月至5月的表现相对较好,韩国、马来西亚和瑞士的国际旅游支出均较2019年同期下降50%。法国也值得注意,与2019年相比,其支出减少了54%。国际旅行正在从非常低的水平缓慢回升,尽管复苏仍然脆弱且不平衡,存在许多不确定性。国内旅游正在推动一些目的地旅游业的复苏,尤其是那些拥有庞大国内市场的目的地。中国和俄罗斯的国内航空座位容量已经超过了危机前的水平。随着正在进行的疫苗接种推广,安全和负责任的旅游业恢复将继续取决于各国在旅行限制方面的协调应对,统一的安全协议和有效的沟通,以帮助恢复消费者的信心。
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引用次数: 1
Barómetro OMT del Turismo Mundial y anexo estadístico, Enero 2021 世界旅游组织世界旅游晴雨表和统计附件,2021年1月
Pub Date : 2021-01-31 DOI: 10.18111/wtobarometeresp.2021.19.1.1
Tourism suffers its deepest crisis with a drop of 74% in 2020 in international arrivals Tourism suffered the greatest crisis on record in 2020 following an unprecedented health, social and economic emergency amid the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) plunged by 74% in 2020 over the previous year due to widespread travel restrictions and a massive drop in demand. The collapse in international travel represents an estimated loss of USD 1.3 trillion in export revenues - more than 11 times the loss recorded during the 2009 global economic crisis. Asia and the Pacific saw an 84% decrease in international arrivals in 2020, about 300 million less than in the previous year. The Middle East and Africa both recorded a 75% drop in arrivals. In Europe arrivals declined by 70%, representing over 500 million fewer international tourists, while the Americas saw a drop of 69%. The latest UNWTO Panel of Experts survey shows a mixed outlook for 2021. Almost half of respondents (45%) envisaged better prospects for 2021 compared to last year, while 25% expect a similar performance and 30% foresee a worsening of results. The overall prospects for a rebound in 2021 seem to have worsened. 50% of respondents now expect a rebound to occur only in 2022 as compared to 21% in October 2020. The remaining half of respondents still see a potential rebound in 2021, though below the expectations shown in the October 2020 survey (79% expected a recovery in 2021). Experts foresee growing demand for open-air and nature-based tourism activities, with domestic tourism and ‘slow travel’ experiences gaining increasing interest. Looking further ahead, most experts do not to see a return to pre-pandemic levels happening before 2023. In fact, 43% of respondents point to 2023, while 41% expect a return to 2019 levels in 2024 or later. UNWTO’s extended scenarios for 2021-2024 indicate that it could take between two-and-a-half and four years for international tourism to return to 2019 levels. The gradual rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine is expected to help restore consumer confidence, contribute to ease travel restrictions and slowly normalize travel during the year ahead.
在2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行爆发导致前所未有的卫生、社会和经济紧急情况之后,2020年旅游业遭遇了有记录以来最严重的危机。由于广泛的旅行限制和需求大幅下降,2020年国际游客人数(过夜游客)比前一年下降了74%。国际旅行的崩溃估计导致出口收入损失1.3万亿美元,是2009年全球经济危机期间损失的11倍多。2020年,亚太地区的国际游客人数减少了84%,比上一年减少了约3亿人。中东和非洲的入境人数都下降了75%。在欧洲,游客人数下降了70%,国际游客减少了5亿多,而美洲则下降了69%。世界旅游组织专家小组的最新调查显示,2021年的前景喜忧参半。近一半的受访者(45%)预计2021年的前景比去年更好,25%的受访者预计表现相似,30%的受访者预计结果会恶化。2021年经济反弹的整体前景似乎已经恶化。50%的受访者现在预计反弹只会在2022年发生,而2020年10月这一比例为21%。其余一半的受访者仍认为2021年可能出现反弹,但低于2020年10月调查时的预期(79%的受访者预计2021年将出现复苏)。专家预测,随着国内旅游和“慢游”体验获得越来越多的兴趣,人们对露天和自然旅游活动的需求将不断增长。展望未来,大多数专家认为在2023年之前不会恢复到大流行前的水平。事实上,43%的受访者认为是2023年,而41%的受访者预计2024年或更晚才能恢复到2019年的水平。联合国世界旅游组织2021-2024年的扩展情景表明,国际旅游业可能需要两年半到四年的时间才能恢复到2019年的水平。预计COVID-19疫苗的逐步推出将有助于恢复消费者信心,有助于放松旅行限制,并在未来一年慢慢使旅行正常化。
{"title":"Barómetro OMT del Turismo Mundial y anexo estadístico, Enero 2021","authors":"","doi":"10.18111/wtobarometeresp.2021.19.1.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18111/wtobarometeresp.2021.19.1.1","url":null,"abstract":"Tourism suffers its deepest crisis with a drop of 74% in 2020 in international arrivals Tourism suffered the greatest crisis on record in 2020 following an unprecedented health, social and economic emergency amid the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) plunged by 74% in 2020 over the previous year due to widespread travel restrictions and a massive drop in demand. The collapse in international travel represents an estimated loss of USD 1.3 trillion in export revenues - more than 11 times the loss recorded during the 2009 global economic crisis. Asia and the Pacific saw an 84% decrease in international arrivals in 2020, about 300 million less than in the previous year. The Middle East and Africa both recorded a 75% drop in arrivals. In Europe arrivals declined by 70%, representing over 500 million fewer international tourists, while the Americas saw a drop of 69%. The latest UNWTO Panel of Experts survey shows a mixed outlook for 2021. Almost half of respondents (45%) envisaged better prospects for 2021 compared to last year, while 25% expect a similar performance and 30% foresee a worsening of results. The overall prospects for a rebound in 2021 seem to have worsened. 50% of respondents now expect a rebound to occur only in 2022 as compared to 21% in October 2020. The remaining half of respondents still see a potential rebound in 2021, though below the expectations shown in the October 2020 survey (79% expected a recovery in 2021). Experts foresee growing demand for open-air and nature-based tourism activities, with domestic tourism and ‘slow travel’ experiences gaining increasing interest. Looking further ahead, most experts do not to see a return to pre-pandemic levels happening before 2023. In fact, 43% of respondents point to 2023, while 41% expect a return to 2019 levels in 2024 or later. UNWTO’s extended scenarios for 2021-2024 indicate that it could take between two-and-a-half and four years for international tourism to return to 2019 levels. The gradual rollout of a COVID-19 vaccine is expected to help restore consumer confidence, contribute to ease travel restrictions and slowly normalize travel during the year ahead.","PeriodicalId":299875,"journal":{"name":"Barómetro OMT del Turismo Mundial","volume":"106 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123353621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Barómetro OMT del Turismo Mundial y anexo estadístico, Diciembre 2020 世界旅游组织世界旅游晴雨表和统计附件,2020年12月
Pub Date : 2020-12-23 DOI: 10.18111/wtobarometeresp.2020.18.1.7
International tourism expected to decline over 70% in 2020, back to levels of 30 years ago International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) fell by 72% in January-October 2020 over the same period last year, curbed by slow virus containment, low traveller confidence and important restrictions on travel still in place, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline in the first ten months of the year represents 900 million fewer international tourist arrivals compared to the same period in 2019, and translates into a loss of US$ 935 billion in export revenues from international tourism, more than 10 times the loss in 2009 under the impact of the global economic crisis. Asia and the Pacific saw an 82% decrease in arrivals in January-October 2020. The Middle East recorded a 73% decline, while Africa saw a 69% drop this ten-month period. International arrivals in both Europe and the Americas declined by 68%. Data on international tourism expenditure continues to reflect very weak demand for outbound travel. However, some large markets such as the United States, Germany and France have shown some shy signs of recovery in the recent months. While demand for international travel remains subdued, domestic tourism continues to grow in several large markets such as China and Russia, where domestic air travel demand has mostly returned to pre-COVID levels. Based on current trends, UNWTO expects international arrivals to decline by 70% to 75% for the whole of 2020. This would mean that international tourism could have returned to levels of 30 years ago. The estimated decline in internationals tourism in 2020 is equivalent to a loss of about 1 billion arrivals and US$ 1.1 trillion in international tourism receipts. This plunge in international tourism could result in an estimated economic loss of over US$ 2 trillion in global GDP, more than 2% of the world’s GDP in 2019. Looking ahead, the announcement and the roll-out of a vaccine are expected to gradually increase consumer confidence and contribute to ease travel restrictions. UNWTO’s extended scenarios for 2021-2024 point to a rebound in international tourism by the second half of 2021. Nonetheless, a return to 2019 levels in terms of international arrivals could take 2½ to 4 years.
2020年国际旅游业预计将下降70%以上,回到30年前的水平。2020年1月至10月,国际游客人数(过夜游客)比去年同期下降72%,原因是病毒控制缓慢、旅行者信心低落以及COVID-19大流行导致的重要旅行限制仍然存在。与2019年同期相比,今年前十个月的下降意味着国际游客人数减少了9亿人,国际旅游出口收入损失9350亿美元,是2009年受全球经济危机影响损失的10倍多。2020年1月至10月,亚太地区的入境人数下降了82%。在这10个月里,中东地区下降了73%,非洲下降了69%。欧洲和美洲的国际游客数量都下降了68%。国际旅游支出数据继续反映出境游需求非常疲弱。然而,一些大型市场,如美国、德国和法国,在最近几个月已经显示出一些微弱的复苏迹象。尽管国际旅游需求仍然低迷,但中国和俄罗斯等几个大型市场的国内旅游仍在继续增长,这些市场的国内航空旅行需求已基本恢复到疫情前的水平。根据目前的趋势,世界旅游组织预计2020年全年的国际游客数量将下降70%至75%。这意味着国际旅游业可能会恢复到30年前的水平。据估计,2020年国际旅游业将减少约10亿人次,国际旅游收入将减少1.1万亿美元。据估计,国际旅游业的暴跌可能导致全球GDP损失超过2万亿美元,占2019年全球GDP的2%以上。展望未来,这一宣布和疫苗的推出预计将逐步增强消费者信心,并有助于缓解旅行限制。联合国世界旅游组织2021-2024年的扩展情景表明,到2021年下半年,国际旅游业将出现反弹。尽管如此,国际入境人数要恢复到2019年的水平可能需要两年半到四年的时间。
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引用次数: 2
Barómetro OMT del Turismo Mundial y anexo estadístico, Agosto/Septiembre 2020 世界旅游组织世界旅游晴雨表和统计附件,2020年8月/ 9月
Pub Date : 2020-09-21 DOI: 10.18111/wtobarometerfra.2020.18.1.5
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引用次数: 0
Barómetro OMT del Turismo Mundial y anexo estadístico, Actualización de julio 2020 世界旅游组织世界旅游晴雨表和统计附件,2020年7月更新
Pub Date : 2020-07-31 DOI: 10.18111/wtobarometeresp.2020.18.1.4
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引用次数: 0
Barómetro OMT del Turismo Mundial y anexo estadístico, Actualización de junio 2020 世界旅游组织世界旅游晴雨表和统计附件,2020年6月更新
Pub Date : 2020-06-26 DOI: 10.18111/wtobarometeresp.2020.18.1.3
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引用次数: 4
Barómetro OMT del Turismo Mundial y anexo estadístico, mayo 2020 世界旅游组织世界旅游晴雨表和统计附件,2020年5月
Pub Date : 2020-05-22 DOI: 10.18111/wtobarometeresp.2020.18.1.2
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引用次数: 1
Barómetro OMT del Turismo Mundial y anexo estadístico, Enero 2020 世界旅游组织世界旅游晴雨表和统计附件,2020年1月
Pub Date : 2020-01-24 DOI: 10.18111/wtobarometeresp.2020.18.1.1
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Barómetro OMT del Turismo Mundial
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