In the aftermath of the financial crisis, when countries are facing difficulties in raising the amounts of revenue needed to cover the expenditure side of the budget, fiscal risks can pose a significant threat to the sustainability of public finance. This became particularly evident in the case of public enterprises and their liabilities, which often increased public debt because of difficulties in meeting their financial obligations. The aim of this paper is to evaluate fiscal risks from government guarantees in Croatia and the European Union in general. Moreover, the paper aims to analyse the dynamics of the value and structure of government guarantees in Croatia in the period from 2009 to first half of 2015. Particular emphasis is placed on the impact of government guarantees on direct public debt in the context of methodological changes in the registration of public debt.
{"title":"The structure and economic significance of government guarantees in Croatia and the European Union","authors":"Marko Primorac, I. Župančić","doi":"10.3326/FINTP.40.1.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/FINTP.40.1.2","url":null,"abstract":"In the aftermath of the financial crisis, when countries are facing difficulties in raising the amounts of revenue needed to cover the expenditure side of the budget, fiscal risks can pose a significant threat to the sustainability of public finance. This became particularly evident in the case of public enterprises and their liabilities, which often increased public debt because of difficulties in meeting their financial obligations. The aim of this paper is to evaluate fiscal risks from government guarantees in Croatia and the European Union in general. Moreover, the paper aims to analyse the dynamics of the value and structure of government guarantees in Croatia in the period from 2009 to first half of 2015. Particular emphasis is placed on the impact of government guarantees on direct public debt in the context of methodological changes in the registration of public debt.","PeriodicalId":30016,"journal":{"name":"Financial Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89449104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We present the findings of a study aimed at building a model for predicting wages of non-employed persons in Croatia. The predictions will be used in the calculation of marginal effective tax rate at the extensive margin and in labour supply modelling. The database used is 2012 “EU statistics on income and living conditions†. The paper comprehensively explains the data source, variables, subgroups of employed and non-employed, and the results of the linear regression model, the Heckman selection model and the quantile regression model. The quality of predictions obtained by different models is compared and discussed.
{"title":"Predicting gross wages of non-employed persons in Croatia","authors":"Slavko Bezeredi, I. Urban","doi":"10.3326/FINTP.40.1.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/FINTP.40.1.1","url":null,"abstract":"We present the findings of a study aimed at building a model for predicting wages of non-employed persons in Croatia. The predictions will be used in the calculation of marginal effective tax rate at the extensive margin and in labour supply modelling. The database used is 2012 “EU statistics on income and living conditions†. The paper comprehensively explains the data source, variables, subgroups of employed and non-employed, and the results of the linear regression model, the Heckman selection model and the quantile regression model. The quality of predictions obtained by different models is compared and discussed.","PeriodicalId":30016,"journal":{"name":"Financial Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86774328","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
One of the principal features of accounting in the 21st century is harmonisation and stanardisation. Regulation of the European Parliament and European Council No. 1606/2002 harmonizes financial reporting for certain companies in the EU. However, national accounting principles are of great importance for financial reporting. The main purpose of this research was to investigate the application of generally accepted accounting principles, the regulatory accounting framework and the standard-setting bodies of EU member states. The analysis of these accounting issues was conducted with respect to all 28 EU member states. The results indicate that EU member states regulate their principal accounting issues through separate accounting acts or implement those issues in companies acts. Some EU member states do not have national accounting standards, the national accounting principles being incorporated in companies acts and accounting acts. Nevertheless, national accounting standard-setting bodies are governmental organisations in almost half the member states.
{"title":"The regulatory framework of accounting and accounting standard-setting bodies in the European Union member states","authors":"Ivana Mamić-Sačer","doi":"10.3326/FINTP.39.4.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/FINTP.39.4.3","url":null,"abstract":"One of the principal features of accounting in the 21st century is harmonisation and stanardisation. Regulation of the European Parliament and European Council No. 1606/2002 harmonizes financial reporting for certain companies in the EU. However, national accounting principles are of great importance for financial reporting. The main purpose of this research was to investigate the application of generally accepted accounting principles, the regulatory accounting framework and the standard-setting bodies of EU member states. The analysis of these accounting issues was conducted with respect to all 28 EU member states. The results indicate that EU member states regulate their principal accounting issues through separate accounting acts or implement those issues in companies acts. Some EU member states do not have national accounting standards, the national accounting principles being incorporated in companies acts and accounting acts. Nevertheless, national accounting standard-setting bodies are governmental organisations in almost half the member states.","PeriodicalId":30016,"journal":{"name":"Financial Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89461822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study employs panel data for 58 countries from 1980-2010, to investigate the dynamic relationship between economic freedom and income inequality. Both linear and non-linear (Panel Smooth Threshold Regression) cointegration estimation methods are used to identify a long-run equilibrium relationship between the overall economic freedom index and its components, and income inequality. The linear long-run parameter estimates for the entire panel of countries show that the association is negative, while the non-linear long-run parameter estimates indicate that above a threshold point the association between economic freedom and income inequality is negative, while below this threshold point the association is positive.
{"title":"Economic freedom and income inequality: further evidence from 58 countries in the long-run","authors":"N. Apergis","doi":"10.3326/FINTP.39.4.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/FINTP.39.4.1","url":null,"abstract":"This study employs panel data for 58 countries from 1980-2010, to investigate the dynamic relationship between economic freedom and income inequality. Both linear and non-linear (Panel Smooth Threshold Regression) cointegration estimation methods are used to identify a long-run equilibrium relationship between the overall economic freedom index and its components, and income inequality. The linear long-run parameter estimates for the entire panel of countries show that the association is negative, while the non-linear long-run parameter estimates indicate that above a threshold point the association between economic freedom and income inequality is negative, while below this threshold point the association is positive.","PeriodicalId":30016,"journal":{"name":"Financial Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90105160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper analyses the motives for and results of the labour tax reforms undertaken by the Latvian government in 2011-2013 with a special focus on the lowwage sector. The reforms were developed with the goal of overcoming negative effects on the labour market caused by the deep economic crisis in 2008-2010 as well as of coping with an increase in labour tax burdens during consolidation. In 2008-2010, Latvia was seriously affected by the global economic crisis and during these years real gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 21 percent. Labour market conditions became worse rapidly and at the beginning of 2010, the unemployment rate reached 21.5 per cent of the economically active population. For the period of 2011-2016, the reforms provide for a reduction in the rates of personal income tax (PIT) and social security contributions (SSC) as well as for an increase in PIT allowances. Taking into account the changes made in labour tax laws, we employed forecasts of average wages and applied the Eurostat methodology to calculate the tax wedge for different groups of employees depending on income level and on the number of their dependants. The results show that the impact of the reform varies greatly and it is more beneficial for employees with dependants and for low-wage earners. The findings of the paper contribute to policy discussions and decisions on the tax wedge, especially in the Euro area. In the period covered by the paper, about half of the Euro area member states (including Latvia) received a country-specific recommendation to address this issue in the context of the European Semester.
{"title":"Reform of labour taxes in Latvia 2011-2013","authors":"Ilmārs Šņucins, Ieva Kodoliņa-Miglāne","doi":"10.3326/FINTP.39.4.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/FINTP.39.4.2","url":null,"abstract":"The paper analyses the motives for and results of the labour tax reforms undertaken by the Latvian government in 2011-2013 with a special focus on the lowwage sector. The reforms were developed with the goal of overcoming negative effects on the labour market caused by the deep economic crisis in 2008-2010 as well as of coping with an increase in labour tax burdens during consolidation. In 2008-2010, Latvia was seriously affected by the global economic crisis and during these years real gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 21 percent. Labour market conditions became worse rapidly and at the beginning of 2010, the unemployment rate reached 21.5 per cent of the economically active population. For the period of 2011-2016, the reforms provide for a reduction in the rates of personal income tax (PIT) and social security contributions (SSC) as well as for an increase in PIT allowances. Taking into account the changes made in labour tax laws, we employed forecasts of average wages and applied the Eurostat methodology to calculate the tax wedge for different groups of employees depending on income level and on the number of their dependants. The results show that the impact of the reform varies greatly and it is more beneficial for employees with dependants and for low-wage earners. The findings of the paper contribute to policy discussions and decisions on the tax wedge, especially in the Euro area. In the period covered by the paper, about half of the Euro area member states (including Latvia) received a country-specific recommendation to address this issue in the context of the European Semester.","PeriodicalId":30016,"journal":{"name":"Financial Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79948321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Classical continuous-time models for log-returns usually assume their independence and normality of distribution. However, nowadays it is widely accepted that the empirical properties of log-returns often show a specific correlation structure and deviation from normality, in most cases suggesting that their distribution is heavy-tailed. Therefore we suggest an alternative continuous-time model for logreturns, a diffusion process with Student’s marginal distributions and exponentially decaying autocorrelation structure. This model depends on several unknown parameters that need to be estimated. The tail index is estimated by the method based on the empirical scaling function, while the parameters describing mean, variance and correlation structure are estimated by the method of moments. The model is applied to the CROBEX stock market index, meaning that the estimation of parameters is based on the CROBEX log-returns. The quality of the model is assessed by means of simulations, by comparing CROBEX log-returns with the simulated trajectories of Student’s diffusion depending on estimated parameter values.
{"title":"Heavy-tailed modeling of CROBEX","authors":"D. Grahovac, N. Šuvak","doi":"10.3326/FINTP.39.4.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/FINTP.39.4.4","url":null,"abstract":"Classical continuous-time models for log-returns usually assume their independence and normality of distribution. However, nowadays it is widely accepted that the empirical properties of log-returns often show a specific correlation structure and deviation from normality, in most cases suggesting that their distribution is heavy-tailed. Therefore we suggest an alternative continuous-time model for logreturns, a diffusion process with Student’s marginal distributions and exponentially decaying autocorrelation structure. This model depends on several unknown parameters that need to be estimated. The tail index is estimated by the method based on the empirical scaling function, while the parameters describing mean, variance and correlation structure are estimated by the method of moments. The model is applied to the CROBEX stock market index, meaning that the estimation of parameters is based on the CROBEX log-returns. The quality of the model is assessed by means of simulations, by comparing CROBEX log-returns with the simulated trajectories of Student’s diffusion depending on estimated parameter values.","PeriodicalId":30016,"journal":{"name":"Financial Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79429692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The estimation of sovereign risk indicators has a key role for the investment decisions. We were witnesses of inaccurate ratings before the last economic crisis, which altered significantly the results expected by many investors. Thus, we propose an improved rating estimation justifying the insertion of new variables, specifically, the shadow economy as a percentage of the GDP. We find that by taking it into account, the credit rating estimation improves. Our estimation assigns a higher sovereign risk to the new European Union member states, whereas the old European Union member states see their sovereign risk decreased.
{"title":"The shadow economy: a relevant factor for investment decisions in selected European Union countries","authors":"M. Karaboytcheva, Carolina Silva Cassorla","doi":"10.3326/FINTP.39.3.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/FINTP.39.3.3","url":null,"abstract":"The estimation of sovereign risk indicators has a key role for the investment decisions. We were witnesses of inaccurate ratings before the last economic crisis, which altered significantly the results expected by many investors. Thus, we propose an improved rating estimation justifying the insertion of new variables, specifically, the shadow economy as a percentage of the GDP. We find that by taking it into account, the credit rating estimation improves. Our estimation assigns a higher sovereign risk to the new European Union member states, whereas the old European Union member states see their sovereign risk decreased.","PeriodicalId":30016,"journal":{"name":"Financial Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86746762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we investigate the presence of flight-to-quality from stocks to bonds as they are the two alternative asset classes predominantly used for hedging investment risk. A negative correlation between stock and bond markets is taken as a prognostication of flight-to-quality, while a positive correlation can be taken as a sign of contagion between the markets. We analyze the Turkish and US stock and government bond markets between June 6, 2006 and November 29, 2013, to make a comparison between the diversification benefits in a developed and an emerging market economy. We further divide our sample into two sub-periods to compare the patterns in crisis and tranquil periods. Our results reveal the existence of flight-to-quality in Turkey, whereas we find significant positive correlations between stocks and bonds in the US, implying a contagion effect. Additionally, we design portfolios of bonds/stocks and compute optimal weights and hedge ratios of the assets.
{"title":"Flight-to-quality or contagion effect? An analysis from the Turkish and the US financial markets","authors":"Hatice Gencer","doi":"10.3326/FINTP.39.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/FINTP.39.4","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we investigate the presence of flight-to-quality from stocks to bonds as they are the two alternative asset classes predominantly used for hedging investment risk. A negative correlation between stock and bond markets is taken as a prognostication of flight-to-quality, while a positive correlation can be taken as a sign of contagion between the markets. We analyze the Turkish and US stock and government bond markets between June 6, 2006 and November 29, 2013, to make a comparison between the diversification benefits in a developed and an emerging market economy. We further divide our sample into two sub-periods to compare the patterns in crisis and tranquil periods. Our results reveal the existence of flight-to-quality in Turkey, whereas we find significant positive correlations between stocks and bonds in the US, implying a contagion effect. Additionally, we design portfolios of bonds/stocks and compute optimal weights and hedge ratios of the assets.","PeriodicalId":30016,"journal":{"name":"Financial Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74402516","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper analyses Croatian mandatory pension funds’ investment returns during the 2005-2014 period using performance attribution methodology. Results from active investment management are compared to a long-term policy return. Such analysis is essential to shed light on the contribution of active portfolio management in the second pillar pension scheme. Evidence suggests that in the period analysed portfolio managers have added value through active management decisions. In addition, we determined the sources of portfolio return by breaking down active return into policy, tactical asset allocation and security selection effect.
{"title":"Is active management of mandatory pension funds in Croatia creating value for second pillar fund members","authors":"P. Matek, Maša Radaković","doi":"10.3326/FINTP.39.3.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/FINTP.39.3.1","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses Croatian mandatory pension funds’ investment returns during the 2005-2014 period using performance attribution methodology. Results from active investment management are compared to a long-term policy return. Such analysis is essential to shed light on the contribution of active portfolio management in the second pillar pension scheme. Evidence suggests that in the period analysed portfolio managers have added value through active management decisions. In addition, we determined the sources of portfolio return by breaking down active return into policy, tactical asset allocation and security selection effect.","PeriodicalId":30016,"journal":{"name":"Financial Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85343520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper aims to analyze the implications of excise policy in member states and at the EU level in the period 2005-2014 in the field of tobacco taxation for policy convergence, revenues and the tobacco market. Based on statistical measures of variability, the convergence of the excise policies of EU member states in the field of the taxation of cigarettes is determined, with the proviso that the excise policies of the new member states are more homogenous than those of the EU-15. From trends in the consumption of tobacco products it can be concluded that the policy that was based on the premise of increasing the excise burden on cigarettes while maintaining a low excise duty on fine cut tobacco led in most member states to distortions in the tobacco market and loss of excise revenues. The study presented in this paper confirmed the key hypothesis that a coherent and effective excise policy at EU level cannot be achieved without careful balancing the structure, amount and dynamics of the increase in the tax burden on cigarettes and all products that may appear as their substitutes.
{"title":"Implications of the taxation of tobacco in the European Union in the period 2005-2014","authors":"Dinka Antić","doi":"10.3326/FINTP.39.3.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3326/FINTP.39.3.2","url":null,"abstract":"The paper aims to analyze the implications of excise policy in member states and at the EU level in the period 2005-2014 in the field of tobacco taxation for policy convergence, revenues and the tobacco market. Based on statistical measures of variability, the convergence of the excise policies of EU member states in the field of the taxation of cigarettes is determined, with the proviso that the excise policies of the new member states are more homogenous than those of the EU-15. From trends in the consumption of tobacco products it can be concluded that the policy that was based on the premise of increasing the excise burden on cigarettes while maintaining a low excise duty on fine cut tobacco led in most member states to distortions in the tobacco market and loss of excise revenues. The study presented in this paper confirmed the key hypothesis that a coherent and effective excise policy at EU level cannot be achieved without careful balancing the structure, amount and dynamics of the increase in the tax burden on cigarettes and all products that may appear as their substitutes.","PeriodicalId":30016,"journal":{"name":"Financial Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80617106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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