Pub Date : 2019-09-27DOI: 10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.3.497
M. Han, S. Yu
Purpose: The purpose of this study is to overcome limitations of conventional studies that to predict Baltic Dry Index (BDI). The study proposed applications of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) named Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to predict BDI. Methods: The BDI time-series prediction was carried out through eight variables related to the dry bulk market. The prediction was conducted in two steps. First, identifying the goodness of fitness for the BDI time-series of specific ANN models and determining the network structures to be used in the next step. While using ANN's generalization capability, the structures determined in the previous steps were used in the empirical prediction step, and the sliding-window method was applied to make a daily (one-day ahead) prediction. Results: At the empirical prediction step, it was possible to predict variable (BDI time series) at point of time by 8 variables (related to the dry bulk market) of at point of time . LSTM, known to be good at learning over a long period of time, showed the best performance with higher predictive accuracy compared to Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). Conclusion: Applying this study to real business would require long-term predictions by applying more detailed forecasting techniques. I hope that the research can provide a point of reference in the dry bulk market, and furthermore in the decision-making and investment in the future of the shipping business as a whole. ● Received 5 May 2019, 1st revised 16 June, accepted 17 June 2019 † Corresponding Author(coppers@kmou.ac.kr) c 2019, The Korean Society for Quality Management This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0) which permits unrestricted non-Commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. ISSN 1229-1889(Print) ISSN 2287-9005(Online) J Korean Soc Qual Manag Vol. 47, No.3: 497-508, September 2019 https://dx.doi.org/10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.3.497 498 J Korean Soc Qual Manag Vol. 47, No. 3: 497-508, September 2019
目的:本研究的目的是克服传统研究预测波罗的海干散货指数(BDI)的局限性。本研究提出了长短期记忆(LSTM)人工神经网络(ANN)在脑损伤预测中的应用。方法:通过与干散货市场相关的8个变量进行BDI时间序列预测。预测分两步进行。首先，识别特定ANN模型的BDI时间序列的适应度优度，并确定下一步要使用的网络结构。在利用人工神经网络泛化能力的同时，将前面步骤中确定的结构用于经验预测步骤，并使用滑动窗口方法进行每日(提前一天)预测。结果:在经验预测步骤中，可以通过在时间点的8个变量(与干散货市场相关)来预测变量(BDI时间序列)在时间点。与多层感知器(MLP)和递归神经网络(RNN)相比，LSTM具有较好的长时间学习能力，具有较高的预测精度。结论:将这项研究应用于实际业务将需要通过应用更详细的预测技术进行长期预测。希望本文的研究能够为干散货市场乃至整个航运业未来的决策和投资提供一定的参考。●2019年5月5日接收，6月16日首次修订，2019年6月17日接受†通讯作者(coppers@kmou.ac.kr) c 2019, The Korean Society for Quality Management这是一篇开放获取的文章，根据知识共享署名非商业许可(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0)的条款分发，该许可允许在任何媒介上不受限制的非商业使用、分发和复制，前提是原始作品被适当引用。ISSN 1229-1889(印刷)ISSN 2287-9005(在线)J Korean Soc quality management Vol. 47, No.3: 497-508, 2019年9月https://dx.doi.org/10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.3.497
{"title":"Prediction of Baltic Dry Index by Applications of Long Short-Term Memory","authors":"M. Han, S. Yu","doi":"10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.3.497","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.3.497","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: The purpose of this study is to overcome limitations of conventional studies that to predict Baltic Dry Index (BDI). The study proposed applications of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) named Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to predict BDI. Methods: The BDI time-series prediction was carried out through eight variables related to the dry bulk market. The prediction was conducted in two steps. First, identifying the goodness of fitness for the BDI time-series of specific ANN models and determining the network structures to be used in the next step. While using ANN's generalization capability, the structures determined in the previous steps were used in the empirical prediction step, and the sliding-window method was applied to make a daily (one-day ahead) prediction. Results: At the empirical prediction step, it was possible to predict variable (BDI time series) at point of time by 8 variables (related to the dry bulk market) of at point of time . LSTM, known to be good at learning over a long period of time, showed the best performance with higher predictive accuracy compared to Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). Conclusion: Applying this study to real business would require long-term predictions by applying more detailed forecasting techniques. I hope that the research can provide a point of reference in the dry bulk market, and furthermore in the decision-making and investment in the future of the shipping business as a whole. ● Received 5 May 2019, 1st revised 16 June, accepted 17 June 2019 † Corresponding Author(coppers@kmou.ac.kr) c 2019, The Korean Society for Quality Management This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0) which permits unrestricted non-Commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. ISSN 1229-1889(Print) ISSN 2287-9005(Online) J Korean Soc Qual Manag Vol. 47, No.3: 497-508, September 2019 https://dx.doi.org/10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.3.497 498 J Korean Soc Qual Manag Vol. 47, No. 3: 497-508, September 2019","PeriodicalId":303033,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Korean Society for Quality Management","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131142744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-09-27DOI: 10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.3.523
J. Chung, Jinyoung Kim, Y. Lim
Purpose: We research on the efficient response surface methodology(RSM) design to develop a design space in Quality by Design(QbD). We propose practical designs for the successful construction of the design space in QbD by allowing different number of replicates at the box points, star points, and the center point in the rotatable central composite design(CCD). Methods: The fraction of design space(FDS) plot is used to compare designs efficiency. The FDS plot shows the fraction of the design space over which the relative standard error of predicted mean response lies below a given value. We search for practical designs whose minimal half-width of the tolerance interval per a standard deviation is less than 4.5 at 0.8 fraction of the design space. Results: The practical designs for the number of factors between two and five are listed. One of the designs in the list could be chosen depending on the experimental budget restriction. Conclusion: The designs with box points replications are more efficient than those with the star points replication. The sequential method to establish a design space is illustrated with the simulated data based on the two examples in RSM.
{"title":"Efficient Designs to Develop a Design Space in Quality by Design","authors":"J. Chung, Jinyoung Kim, Y. Lim","doi":"10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.3.523","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.3.523","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: We research on the efficient response surface methodology(RSM) design to develop a design space in Quality by Design(QbD). We propose practical designs for the successful construction of the design space in QbD by allowing different number of replicates at the box points, star points, and the center point in the rotatable central composite design(CCD). Methods: The fraction of design space(FDS) plot is used to compare designs efficiency. The FDS plot shows the fraction of the design space over which the relative standard error of predicted mean response lies below a given value. We search for practical designs whose minimal half-width of the tolerance interval per a standard deviation is less than 4.5 at 0.8 fraction of the design space. Results: The practical designs for the number of factors between two and five are listed. One of the designs in the list could be chosen depending on the experimental budget restriction. Conclusion: The designs with box points replications are more efficient than those with the star points replication. The sequential method to establish a design space is illustrated with the simulated data based on the two examples in RSM.","PeriodicalId":303033,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Korean Society for Quality Management","volume":"149 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114636754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-09-27DOI: 10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.3.453
Young Min Park, B. Kim, Sung-Hoon Kim, S. Noh
Purpose: A main purpose is to increase the operational rate and reduce operating maintenance costs by Improving the durability of Blower of Military Armored Vehicle and Self-propelled Artillery. As a result, it is expected to improve the service quality of customers. Methods: After analyzing the cause of the stop of the blower, the improvement plans were established and the effectiveness of each improvement plans were verified by testing. Results: Mechanical, electrical and environmental factors affecting brush wear were reviewed, but it was difficult to specify the cause, which necessitated a review of the application of the BLDC motor. Conclusion: After applying the BLDC motor to the blower, tests proved that the existing blower can be replaced. It is expected that this study will help improve the durability life of similar equipment that is applied with Brushed DC motors as well as blowers.
{"title":"A Study on Durability Life Improvement of Blower for Military Armored Vehicle and Self-propelled Artillery","authors":"Young Min Park, B. Kim, Sung-Hoon Kim, S. Noh","doi":"10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.3.453","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.3.453","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: A main purpose is to increase the operational rate and reduce operating maintenance costs by Improving the durability of Blower of Military Armored Vehicle and Self-propelled Artillery. As a result, it is expected to improve the service quality of customers. Methods: After analyzing the cause of the stop of the blower, the improvement plans were established and the effectiveness of each improvement plans were verified by testing. Results: Mechanical, electrical and environmental factors affecting brush wear were reviewed, but it was difficult to specify the cause, which necessitated a review of the application of the BLDC motor. Conclusion: After applying the BLDC motor to the blower, tests proved that the existing blower can be replaced. It is expected that this study will help improve the durability life of similar equipment that is applied with Brushed DC motors as well as blowers.","PeriodicalId":303033,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Korean Society for Quality Management","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123381266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-09-27DOI: 10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.3.509
J. Seo, S. Bae
{"title":"The Effect of the Writing Rules of Product User Guide on Consumer Accident Prevention","authors":"J. Seo, S. Bae","doi":"10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.3.509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.3.509","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":303033,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Korean Society for Quality Management","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117014852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-09-27DOI: 10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.3.615
Jing Wang, Youn Seong Kim
{"title":"A Study on the Effect of Service Recovery through Mediating Customer Forgiveness on Customer Behavior Intention of Online Shopping Mall - Based On the SOR Model","authors":"Jing Wang, Youn Seong Kim","doi":"10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.3.615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.3.615","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":303033,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Korean Society for Quality Management","volume":"59 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124547376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-06-30DOI: 10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.2.283
Seung-Hwan Gu, Kyung Min Kim, J. Park, Seung-hwan Song
{"title":"A Study on Improvement of Ballistic Testing Method for Combat Helmet","authors":"Seung-Hwan Gu, Kyung Min Kim, J. Park, Seung-hwan Song","doi":"10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.2.283","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.2.283","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":303033,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Korean Society for Quality Management","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128277345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-06-30DOI: 10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.2.367
Hee-Soo Cho, Yung-Ho Suh, Sang Chul Lee, Sae-bom Lee
{"title":"Why Do Laggards Resist the IT Adoption in Public Service?: A Case of Expressway Hi-Pass System","authors":"Hee-Soo Cho, Yung-Ho Suh, Sang Chul Lee, Sae-bom Lee","doi":"10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.2.367","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.2.367","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":303033,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Korean Society for Quality Management","volume":"117 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124146387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-06-30DOI: 10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.2.327
EuiBeom Jeong, Jinsoo Park
Purpose: This study aims to conduct a systematic literature review to suitably identify wide and specific issues and topics on service quality in supply chain. Methods: This study is to investigate service quality in supply chain research using a systematic literature review methodology. In order to extract influential journals and papers, we used the SJR impact factor provided by the SCOPUS database. The collected 169 papers were analyzed using bibliometric analysis, citation analysis as well as keywords network. Results: We conducted a bibliometric analysis to identify top authors contributing to service quality in supply chain and their issues, and further examined important keywords and new emerging keywords. In addition, we extracted five influential papers by PageRank to clarify critical issues and divided into five clusters to identify topics of service quality in supply chain by using network-based approach. In order to examine comprehensive issues and topics of service quality in supply chain, we constructed a keyword network to observe difference in the classification of important keywords across network centrality measures. Conclusion: Our study reviewed literature on service quality in supply chain and explored the future directions and trends of service quality in supply chain.
{"title":"A Systematic Literature Review on Service Quality: Bibliomertics and Network Analysis","authors":"EuiBeom Jeong, Jinsoo Park","doi":"10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.2.327","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.2.327","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose: This study aims to conduct a systematic literature review to suitably identify wide and specific issues and topics on service quality in supply chain.\u0000Methods: This study is to investigate service quality in supply chain research using a systematic literature review methodology. In order to extract influential journals and papers, we used the SJR impact factor provided by the SCOPUS database. The collected 169 papers were analyzed using bibliometric analysis, citation analysis as well as keywords network.\u0000Results: We conducted a bibliometric analysis to identify top authors contributing to service quality in supply chain and their issues, and further examined important keywords and new emerging keywords. In addition, we extracted five influential papers by PageRank to clarify critical issues and divided into five clusters to identify topics of service quality in supply chain by using network-based approach. In order to examine comprehensive issues and topics of service quality in supply chain, we constructed a keyword network to observe difference in the classification of important keywords across network centrality measures.\u0000Conclusion: Our study reviewed literature on service quality in supply chain and explored the future directions and trends of service quality in supply chain.","PeriodicalId":303033,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Korean Society for Quality Management","volume":"287 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122660074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-06-30DOI: 10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.2.255
Sangwon Eum, Chulok Ahn, Hosun Rhim
{"title":"The Impact of Customization of TV Home Shopping Mobile Applications on Service Quality and Customer Loyalty","authors":"Sangwon Eum, Chulok Ahn, Hosun Rhim","doi":"10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.2.255","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.2.255","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":303033,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Korean Society for Quality Management","volume":"66 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129637667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-06-30DOI: 10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.2.295
Chang-soo Seo, Oak Hyeon An
{"title":"A Structural Analysis of the Factors Affecting Productivity Performance: Based on SME of Manufacturing Certified the PMS","authors":"Chang-soo Seo, Oak Hyeon An","doi":"10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.2.295","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7469/JKSQM.2019.47.2.295","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":303033,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Korean Society for Quality Management","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122062710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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